SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[Dhoomstriker]

We want Catherine to research construction in the next 20-25 turns as we want to trade for it.

If you honestly believe that it is a worthwhile risk and if this point is the only thing holding you up from playing, then I'll trust your decision.

Or we could wipe out an entire AI to avoid the "we wish to join our motherland" happiness penalty, and then use this bonus to whip out more units to go after the next AI.

I guess it will depend upon how many Happiness Resources we are able to capture, how large the Cities that we capture are, and whether we might get value out of a Cease Fire and/or Peace (i.e. getting Gold, Gold per Turn, Techs, etc for Peace or else getting a better strategic position from a Cease Fire, like getting 5 entrenched AI defenders to "let up" and leave the City, only for us to attack again a couple of turns later).

Having another AI get larger while we pick on the already-defeated AI until death may not be the best use of our resources, but a lot of factors will be involved, including the logistics of our boats.

So, while you are right in your point, it is just one of many factors that will have to be weighed and balanced when the time comes.

"We wish to join our Motherland" penalties get considerably smaller once a population is smaller, anyway, so whipping heavily in captured Cities already kind of helps with that issue.

I think this would be worth trying if your sure your not wrong 4 times in a row.

Haha. Well, this time I'm saying the opposite of what I said the other 3 times, so yeah, I'm right. Since we haven't begged for any gifts yet, it may or may not be possible to get Archery, but begging for Gold will do the same thing... so, we could also just wait a few turns, as I think that we can both agree that the Gold will be of far more value.

So, don't bother begging for Archery (it'll come in a trade at some point) but do strongly consider begging for Gold from any AI that is Pleased with us. I think that you said that you'd pause the game at this point (i.e. when we learn Currency)... the amount that you can beg is dependent upon how long that you have known each AI, so, at that time, we could run a test game to find out the maximum amount that we could ask for.

Begging from an AI that isn't Pleased or higher is purely dependent upon our relative Power ratios, so that approach will fail, but asking from an AI that is Pleased or higher just goes off of a time-based factor... something roughly equivalent to 3 Gold for each Turn that you know the AI.

 

[shyuhe]

The begging is based off of a formula. Silu posted it a while back in one of our SGOTM games I think. It's a linear function of the amount of time known, and I think beakers get converted at a 1 beaker:3 coin rate. Unfortunately I don't remember the formula it self -_-

 

[Mitchum]

So, are you ready to play mdy or do you need more input from the team? If you're ready to play, can you give a final update on what you plan to do through Currency, especially any trades or diplo actions?

 

[mdy]

I'm ready to play now along the plan previously outlined. I am not planning to make any trades, or make any requests for gifts prior to currency. Any demand for a major tech will be refused, but may give in to a demand for a minor religious tech if it is unlikely to speed up the AI's progress towards towards feudalism. I will sign an OB agreement with Catherine.

 

[Mitchum]

Are you planning to gift Math to Joao now or are you going to wait until Currency so that we can get some gold out of it?

 

[mdy]

I was planning on gifting it to him now.

 

[Mitchum]

I guess with the turns of anarchy, we are several turns away from Currency. Gifting Math makes sense in that it will speed up Joao researching something useful for us.

I'm fine with you playing when you're ready.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Go 4 it!

I'm sure that you'll need to stop frequently, anyway. Who knows when more Barb Galleys will appear, when Ragnar will attack (I would expect you to pause play if that happens, even if we are NOT the war target), when another AI will learn Alphabet or Monarchy (although I trust that you know what to do such that you won't necessarily have to pause play--gift Alphabet to anyone that gets Monarchy and who also knows someone who has Alphabet--although AIs that dn't know anyone that knows Alphabet are temporarily safe but that situation may change), failure to spread Confucianism (let's hope not), etc.

 

[mdy]

Bad news everyone:




I attacked one of the barb galley with our fully healed galley, and we lost-the galley then proceeded to pillage iron cities nets, fortunately I was able to pick it off with our galley before it could pillage pigs cities fishing nets. I've moved our spare workboat towards iron city to replace the lost workboat.

I think we may need to reconsider the build orders for stone city/iron to include a workboat and or a replacement trieme, though this does mean we would be unable to complete a forge in stone and a barracks in iron before the end of our golden age.

Fortunately everything else has gone as planned.

Victoria has just got monarchy. She will trade monarchy+60 gold for alphabet+monotheism.

Relations with Jao have improved to the point where it is possible he will trade with us (and open borders). He has also discovered aesthetics. I propose putting our research to 0% for a couple of turn on the off chance that we will be able to trade for it.

I will upload the save, and avoid playing for at least another 24 hours to give people a chance to comment.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I attacked one of the barb galley with our fully healed galley, and we lost-the galley then proceeded to pillage iron cities nets, fortunately I was able to pick it off with our galley before it could pillage pigs cities fishing nets. I've moved our spare workboat towards iron city to replace the lost workboat.

What happened to the second Barb Galley?

Also, I assume that you mean that you attacked with our fully-healed Trireme and that our Combat I Trireme died, right?

I think we may need to reconsider the build orders for stone city/iron to include a workboat and or a replacement trieme, though this does mean we would be unable to complete a forge in stone and a barracks in iron before the end of our golden age.

I see nothing wrong with:
1. In Stone City, after it completes its current Trireme that it immediately builds a second Trireme, followed by starting on a Forge

2. In Iron City, it completes the Granary first... it can still grow to Size 2 while working an Unnetted Clam and then work an Unnetted Clam + the Iron Mine while completing a Granary. This missing Food won't matter too much if you complete the Granary in this manner, as growing too quickly just means less Food stored in the Foodbox. After that, it can build a Work Boat. So, Iron = Granary -> Work Boat -> Lighthouse

Victoria has just got monarchy. She will trade monarchy+60 gold for alphabet+monotheism.

That's nice to know but:
1. We do not want to receive Monarchy in trade, for two reasons: a) Monarchy then gets even more quickly traded-around amongst the AI, which is a bad, bad thing and b) we have no use for its potential to unlock Hereditary Rule since we have built The Pyramids

2. We do not want to give Monotheism or Priesthood to any AI, if at all possible, even if that AI already knows Monarchy, for a similar reason: so that Monotheism and/or Priesthood does not get even more quickly traded-around amongst the AI, which would then lead more of them to consider self-teching Monarchy (kind of like gifting around Math and hoping that AIs learn the post-Math techs, if we were to give out Monotheism or Priesthood, we'd be accomplishing the reverse and getting them in a position where they would be more likely to divert Flasks to Monarchy)

So, we should definitely not be making that trade.

Also, since you mention 60 Gold, does that mean that you have played-through until learning Currency?

If yes, can you provide more information on what Gold values are on the table? Screenshots of the F4 -> TECHS (Gold values) and F4 -> RESOURCES (Gold per Turn values) would be very helpful.


Has Vicky met Willem yet? I guess a screenshot of the F4 -> GLANCE screen would be very helpful, too.

Relations with Jao have improved to the point where it is possible he will trade with us (and open borders). He has also discovered aesthetics. I propose putting our research to 0% for a couple of turn on the off chance that we will be able to trade for it.

I thought that we were going to research Civil Service instead of Aesthetics next anyway, for this very reason. Again, since accidentally researching Civil Service would drastically affect our plan, I recommend stopping Research on Civil Service when you are 2 turns away from completing it... not because I think that you'll forget but because a misclick could accidentally End the Turn and then you'd have some seriously bad news to report, instead of just "normal, expected, no worries" type of news to report.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

From when I last played, Joao knew:
us
Vicky
Cathy
Willem
and Isabella

So, essentially, everyone but Ragnar.

Will Joao trade Aesthetics to us? In order for the answer to be "yes," the following has to return FALSE. If it returns TRUE, then it means that he truely treats the tech as a Monopoly and will give us a "DENIAL_TECH_MONOPOLY" response.
((X * 100 / 4) < ((40 * 240 / 100))
=> (X * 25) < (96)
=> X < 96 / 25
=> X < 3.84

X represents that number of AIs that Joao knows who must also have learned Aesthetics. In other words, the number of other AIs that know Aesthetics who do not include Ragnar. Note that if Joao meets Ragnar, then the above equation will have to change.

If X = 0, 1, 2, or 3, then the formula returns TRUE and Aesthetics is DENIED to us.

Thus, ALL 4 of Vicky, Cathy, Willem, and Isabella must learn Aesthetics before Joao will trade it to us.

Do you now see the futility of trying to get a tech trade from Joao?



Now, let's take the best possible case, where Willem has not met anyone new since I last played and also learns Aesthetics.
EDIT: We now know that Willem met Vicky, so I have updated the following values:


Willem knows:
us
Vicky
Cathy
Joao
Ragnar
and Isabella

So, essentially, he knows everyone.

That changes the formula to:
((Y * 100 / 5) < ((15 * 240 / 100))
=> (Y * 20) < (37.5)
=> Y < 37.5 / 20
=> Y < 1.875

So, Y must be 2 or greater or else we will be denied the trade.

Thus, if Joao + Willem know Aesthetics, we will not be able to get Aesthetics in trade. We will need to have one of Cathy, Ragnar, or Isabella ALSO learn Aesthetics.


What about Cathy learning Aesthetics?

Well, the last that I saw (i.e. when I played last), Cathy knew:
us
Joao
Willem
Ragnar
and Isabella

So, essentially, everyone but Vicky.

That changes the formula to:
((Z * 100 / 4) < ((20 * 240 / 100))
=> (Z * 25) < (48)
=> Z < 48 / 25
=> Z < 1.92

So, Z must be 2 or greater or else we will be denied the trade.

Thus, Cathy, in this case, will be identical to Willem learning Aesthetics, in that Cathy + Joao knowing Aesthetics = we cannot get it in trade, but if those two know it and one more out of Willem, Ragnar, and Isabella learns it, then we will be able to get it in trade.

Of course, if Cathy meets Vicky, then we would need a 4th AI to know Aesthetics before Cathy would trade it to us. So, keeping Vicky isolated can be a "VERY GOOD THING" in terms of getting techs in trade.


See? I told you that we'd eventually get the formula figured out!

 

[mdy]

If yes, can you provide more information on what Gold values are on the table? Screenshots of the F4 -> TECHS (Gold values) and F4 -> RESOURCES (Gold per Turn values) would be very helpful.

I have uploaded the save for people to look at.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

By the way, will the dip in our Power ratio from losing that Trireme possibly cause Ragnar to declare earlier than he might have otherwise? That's in the case that we're the war target, of course.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I have uploaded the save for people to look at.

Okay... so, is there something broken with your computer that stops you from taking a couple of screenshots?

If yes, can you give us a summary of the relevant info (which AI has how much Gold to offer, etc)?

I don't think that everyone will always have time to open the saved game, but I'm sure that people would love to offer a bit of feedback, where possible. Think to your own situation where you could only read updates about the game for a while but were away from a Civ-capable computer.

 

[mdy]

Do you now see the futility of trying to get a tech trade from Joao?

The point was never to trade with Jao, but that if he learnt a tech it might enable another AI to trade with us.

I thought that we were going to research Civil Service instead of Aesthetics next anyway, for this very reason.

Yes, but if the point where we stop researching CS get be put back a couple of turns we would be able to research either optics or machinery next instead of optics. The chances of getting aesthetic in trade may not be that high, but as it doesn't cost us anything why not make the attempt?

Of course, if Cathy meets Vicky, then we would need a 4th AI to know Aesthetics before Cathy would trade it to us. So, keeping Vicky isolated can be a "VERY GOOD THING" in terms of getting techs in trade.


See? I told you that we'd eventually get the formula figured out!

Any idea what we could do to keep Vicki apart? I always thought that the AI included themselves when they worked out if enough other AI's already knew a tech.


Screenshots are attached.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

The point was never to trade with Jao, but that if he learnt a tech it might enable another AI to trade with us.

Fair enough. And thank you for the screenshots!

Yes, but if the point where we stop researching CS get be put back a couple of turns we would be able to research either optics or machinery next instead of optics. The chances of getting aesthetic in trade may not be that high, but as it doesn't cost us anything why not make the attempt?

Well...
I suppose that we have a chance to get any of the following techs in trade:
Compass and Aesthetics

We also have a chance to Lightbulb the following tech:
Machinery

Assuming that we can get some of that Gold from the AIs, then we might not want to spend very many turns at a 0% Science Rate. Thus, our Research will have to keep pushing fowards on SOME kind of a tech.

It is true that spending time on Civil Service is a "forward-thinking" action, in that we won't need this tech in order to Lightbulb anything. The hope, of course, is that while we spend our Flasks on Civil Service, an AI will offer-up a Tech in trade that we would otherwise have to research ourselves.

If an AI offers-up a Tech, then the Flasks that we have invested in Civil Service are essentially "free."

If, however, an AI does not offer-up a Tech, then we will have delayed Research down our Lightbulbing path.

I THINK that you said that we'd safely be able to Research most of Civil Service without delaying our Lightbulbing, but it would be nice if you could confirm this belief.


Futher, there is NO expectation that an AI will research Civil Service before we do (they don't even have the pre-requisite tech, and even if they did, they tend to put off Research on this tech for a long time). So, we will want to research it ourselves eventually anyway. The real question then becomes: will spending our Flasks on Civil Service now hurt us badly if the AIs do not end up offering either of Aesthetics or Compass in trade?


One other point: every AI that beats us to researching a tech will save us a few Flasks on research of that tech. It's not a big amount, but it still helps a little bit. So, even if we don't get a tech in trade (say, Isabella, Vicky, or Ragnar were to learn Aesthetics and we still wouldn't be able to trade it), we'd still at least get a tiny bonus to research on Aesthetics when we were forced to eventually self-tech it.

Any idea what we could do to keep Vicki apart?

Yes, but you wouldn't like the idea: Closing Borders with some of the AIs. Hehe. I told you that you wouldn't like the idea!

I always thought that the AI included themselves when they worked out if enough other AI's already knew a tech.

Well, let's go to the code again, shall we?
From the CvTeamAI::AI_techTrade function, we see this relevant bit of code:

for (iI = 0; iI < MAX_CIV_TEAMS; iI++)
  {
    if (GET_TEAM((TeamTypes)iI).isAlive())
    {
      if ((iI != getID()) && (iI != eTeam))...

See that last line there? It says "if not myself" and "if not the player that I am talking to," then do the following. "The following" part is where the iKnownCount and iPossibleKnownCount variables get calculated.

For example, if we are talking to Vicky, then her variables are as follows:
getID = Vicky

eTeam = us

iPossibleKnownCount = Any AI that she knows, but not counting herself and not counting the player that she is talking to (us... aka "eTeam")

iKnownCount = The number of AIs that are counted in the "iPossibleKnownCount" variable which also know the relevant Tech

So, no, an AI does not count itself.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

The last we saw the F4 -> GLANCE screen, it looked as follows:

Now it looks like the following:

Spoiler :

So, what has changed?

A] Vicky and Willem have met each other and are Cautious towards each other.
B] We are no longer Joao's Worst Enemy. Cathy now holds that honour.
C] We are no longer Isabella's Worst Enemy. Cathy now holds that honour.

There are a few other minor differences, but those are the important ones. What are the implications?


Well, A], plus the fact that Vicky has learned Monarchy means that we have to give Alphabet to Vicky immediately. What we get in exchange is up for debate... perhaps just all of her Gold, perhaps all of her Gold + Archery.

Here's a bigger picture of the current tech scene (mdy's image):

Spoiler :

B] and C] mean that not many AIs will care all that much about us making Demands of other AIs that get accepted. Only Ragnar will potentially get mad.

For a trade where we are giving more value than getting, such as Alphabet <-> Vicky's Gold + Archery, Ragnar would not care at all. He would only care if another AI were to give us more than fair value, which we're only practically going to get out of a Demand when we are the player making the Demand (a Gift to us from an AI would count, too, but we're not in last place, so that scenario won't happen).


What else can we see from the Tech trading scene?
Willem only has 20 Gold, so we might as well wait to Demand Gold from him until he has a higher value available.

Other AIs, particularly with the death of our Trireme, are going to laugh at our Power level and will simply refuse any Demand that we make (and will also give us a permanent -1 negative Diplo penalty). Note that we would not get this -1 negative Diplo penalty from any AI that is Pleased or Friendly with us, which currently includes only Willem.


What about the Resource-trading screen?

Spoiler :

Well, there aren't any new Resources up for trade. Joao does appear to have a 2nd source of Horse, which could be dangerous if he trades it to another AI in the future. At least he already seems to have Fish + Clam, so he won't trade a Horse Resource to an AI for a Fish Resource (i.e. we don't have to worry about the infamous scenario of: "Rome trades a Fish and gets an Iron from another AI").

How about the Gold per Turn values? Well, unless Ragnar has founded a 4th City, he should not have Clam. Therefore, we should feel safe to cancel the Clam deal with him and trade it back to him for 1 Gold per Turn. It's nothing special, but it's part of the reason why we researched Currency, so we might as well take advantage of whatever we can get, right?


We probably are due for renegotiating the Resource Trades with Cathy, especially now that she is once again the Worst Enemy of 2 AIs. we don't want to turn around and become those AIs' Worst Enemy again (which is very possible) simply because we traded with their current Worst Enemy, right?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Alright, I have taken a look at the saved game.

Some News:
Good news! Although Taoism appears to have been founded in Pig City, we got Confucianism to spread there! We also have Confucianism safely in Paris. Nice work, mdy!

Actually, Taoism has spread quite a lot... it also exists in Paris and in Iron City. But, wait, I don't see our Taoist Missionary. So, I guess that one of those spreads was done manually.

Vicky has also picked-up Taoism and has converted to it.

No AI appears to have built another City yet.

For some reason, Pig City seems to have 3 Great Artist GPP. Perhaps an Artist Specialist got auto-assigned when we grew 1 population point due to our borders not having expanded to their fat cross yet and the City Governor being "too smart" for his own good. Anyway, this situation is not a big deal. However, the main question becomes: does this situation affect our Food (1 less Coast worked) or only our Hammers (1 less turn of working the Desert Hills Mine)? If it meant 1 less turn of working a Coast, does our Great Person plan get affected? I will guess that the answer is YES, because if I switch the Desert Hills Mine to a Coast, we can grow in ONE turn instead of TWO turns. So, that would be my recommendation: grow in one turn.

Iron City is working the Iron and will grow in 3 turns.

Willem is researching Calendar and will know it in 8 turns.


Recommended Stone City build order:
Trireme for the west (finish building it) -> Trireme for the east -> Forge -> Barracks

Recommended Iron City build order:
Granary (finish building it) -> Work Boat (for its Clam) -> Lighthouse -> Trireme or Barracks (depending upon whether or not we lose another Trireme)


Things to do on the current turn:
1. Pig City switches the Des Hills Mine to a Coast (to grow 1 turn faster)
2. Cancel Marble <-> Cathy's Cow deal
3. Cancel Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep deal
4. Trade Marble <-> Cathy's Cow
5. Trade Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep
6. Trade Alphabet <-> Vicky's 60 Gold + MAYBE Archery
7. Cancel Clam gift to Ragnar (keep the Fish gift going, though, as we don't know if he has reconnected his Fish yet or not. He actually appreciates us for "the years that we have supplied [him] with resources" for having given him 2 Resources over a period of time)
8. Trade Clam <-> Ragnar's 1 Gold per Turn
9. MAYBE Switch Espionage Weighting from "Willem = 1" to "Willem = 1 AND Vicky = 1" in order to eventually be able to see Vicky's Demographics
10. MAYBE Trade Hunting <-> Isabella's 50 Gold (it's a good deal but do we want to give her earlier Spearmen? Probably "yes," since we'll be attacking with Maces and we'd rather see Spearmen than Archers, right?)


Things to do on the next turn:
1. Stone City will grow, so you will need to decide whether to work the Grassland Workshop (1 Food + 2 Hammers) or the Desert Hills Mine (0 Food + 3 Hammers)
2. Pig City will grow (if you make the above recommended change of DesH Mine -> Coast), so you should at least look at this City and make sure that it's going to be doing what it is supposed to be doing, as per your PPP
3. Switch Iron City to working an Unnetted Clam, so that it will grow 1 turn faster


Things to do two turns from now:
1. Ensure that Iron City is working an Unnetted Clam + the Iron


Things to do 10 turns from now:
1. Cancel Marble <-> Cathy's Cow deal
2. Cancel Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep deal
3. Trade Marble <-> Cathy's Cow
4. Trade Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep


Things to do on future turns:
If any of Joao, Ragnar, or Isabella learns Monarchy, then trade them Alphabet for all of their Gold


Things to consider doing on every turn:
1. Press the F10 key in order to open up the capital City's view, then the right arrow key in order to view every City in succession. This shortcut might make it a bit more user-friendly for you to keep an eye on our Cities. I did so every turn.
2. Check the F4 -> RESOURCES screen for new Resources. Joao has a Horse Resource and a willingness to trade it to any AI that he is Pleased with as soon as another AI gets a Resource available. The game is nice enough to give us a 1-turn window to prevent such a possible trade (by making a trade of our own), but only if we're watching for it.


Things not to do:
1. Do not get Monarchy in trade
2. Do not give/trade Monotheism to Vicky
3. Do not give/trade Mysticism (or any Religious techs that come after it) to Ragnar
4. Probably do not Open Borders with Joao, as doing so risks Cathy getting mad at us. Cathy is one of our preferred trading partners, so I'd prefer not to risk getting her any further upset with us. We have apparently already refused to help her, which was worth -2 negative Diplo points. Since Joao does not have The Great Lighthouse and already has Open Borders with multiple AIs, we WILL NOT affect Joao's Research rate by Opening Borders with him, thus I prefer to keep them Closed. Besides, do you really want to risk him returning with a Work Boat that is leading a Barb Galley or two straight to us?


Things to consider doing:
1. Maybe we should insert an extra Work Boat build somewhere. It would be nice to have a Resource like Crab available to trade to AIs. For example, if Paris is going to work Mines, then we could probably build a Work Boat there before completing the Barracks. If Paris is not going to work the GH Mines, then maybe we can build a Work Boat somewhere else, such as in Gold City after the Trireme and before the Barracks.
So, I'll suggest one of:
Paris build order (but only if we are going to work the GH Mines after generating our Great Person here):
Immediately switch to a Work Boat -> Barracks

OR, if Paris will continue hiring Specialists:
Gold City build order:
Trireme (finish the current one) -> Work Boat -> Barracks

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I wonder how long kossin is going to continue the farce of replying to himself once a day or so in their team thread, in order to try and keep up the illusion that they haven't finished the game. It doesn't help his approach that I've seen his teammates become active again over in the Strategy & Tips Forum.

Maybe he'll read this message and finally give it up!

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Once our Research is done, do you think that we might build some Spies and spend a portion of our Commerce on Espionage? In particular:

#217 Siege is just this toy for taking down walls. In fact, they're really uselessas. Well, those hot chicks in black leather are way faster in removing them.