SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

Warrior = 22 Hammers, 269 Gold to upgrade into a Maceman
Axeman = 52 Hammers, 179 Gold to upgrade into a Maceman
Swordsman = 60 Hammers, 155 Gold to upgrade into a Maceman
Maceman = 105 Hammers


Galley = 75 Hammers, 155 Gold to upgrade into a Galleon
Galleon = 120 Hammers


Note that the upgrade cost for a unit is 20 Gold + 3 Gold per Hammer, which I have double-checked against the numbers obtained from a test game.

This fact, of course, means that the "expense" of that "base" 20 Gold is most efficiently used when paying for the highest upgrade possible.

I.e. A Maceman's Hammers - a Warrior's Hammers = 105 - 22 = 82 Hammers, giving a cost of 269 / 82 = 3.2804878048780487804878048780488 Gold per Hammer.

A Maceman's Hammers - a Swordsman's Hammers = 105 - 60 = 45 Hammers, giving us a cost of 155 / 45 = 3.4444444444444444444444444444444 Gold per Hammer.


Therefore, if our Gold supply will be limited, the best upgrade path will be Warrior -> Maceman for a few units.

If our Gold supply were infinite (it will not be), then we'd be best building only Warriors and Galleys for quite some time to come.

Realistically, we won't have very much Gold to work with. However, we will likely have some options, such as selling Aesthetics around. I don't know about you, but I'd rather have the AIs:
1. Help to research Literature for us
AND
2. Spend their Hammers on the Aesthetics Wonders
AND
3. Get more Failure Gold (that they can give to us later) by failing to be the first to build the Aesthetics Wonders


Still, we won't have much Gold initially, so there will need to be a balance between having too many units that need to be upgraded versus not being able to raise enough Gold within a short period of time.


However, consider the following: after a decent amount of turns (say, 10 turns after the Golden Age), we'll still be making Gold, but we will have run out of things to spend it on.

Therefore, it's not actually a bad thing to make:
1. A round of Galleys, then focus on spending our Gold on these build items first
AND
2. Several rounds of Warriors, which we will use the next 20 to 30 turns to slowly upgrade
AND
3. After the Warriors, build Trebs and Macemen


That way, we'll have a medium-term focus of being able to spend a SMALL amount of production now on cheap Warriors that will be upgraded over time, giving us a STEADY stream of Macemen. It also gives us the best upgrade-conversion factor over time (upgrading Warriors to Macemen being the most efficient use of our Gold). We'll still aim to get some Macemen and Trebs built in short order (probably with more focus on whipping Trebs and using overflow Hammers into cheap Warriors), but will have a balanced use for our excess Gold over time.


"How many Warriors" is not a question to which I have an answer right now. We'll know more as the time approaches.
 
Note that if we are going to commit to upgrading many Warriors, then I could be argued into going for early Astronomy, since we'll get a slightly better conversion ratio on our Warriors -> Macemen than we will for our Galleys -> Galleons (since upgrading Galleys -> Galleons gives the same conversion ratio as does Swordsmen -> Macemen).

Still, I don't think that 1 round of Galleys -> Galleons will hurt, since the Gold cost is not THAT high, while we'll actually need to spend some turns collecting and trading for Gold in order to be able to upgrade some Warriors.

Thus, I'd still like to build some Galleys initially.


As for our Workers... I think that only 1 will need to go to Iron Island after Chopping the Forest on the SE Horse Island... the other Worker + Galley might as well head west to start Chopping other Forests, right?
 
Still, I don't think that 1 round of Galleys -> Galleons will hurt, since the Gold cost is not THAT high, while we'll actually need to spend some turns collecting and trading for Gold in order to be able to upgrade some Warriors.

Thus, I'd still like to build some Galleys initially.
If we don't spend some Gold this way (upgrading Galleys to Galleons), then we will be unable to spend ANY Gold on unit upgrades until we connect our Iron (other than for our lone existing Galley).

Connecting-up our Iron early means that we won't be able to whip Galleys and/or Trebs and/or later Galleons with Hammer-overflow going into Warriors (since Warriors will no longer be buildable).

Thus, in the interest of being able to spend SOME Gold initially, while still being able to build some Warriors for a few turns, I'd like to whip Galleys as our first round of whipping.
 
Here are the Attitude levels required to be able to ask an AI to swap Civics. Note that we'll only have a short window (during the Golden Age) to be able to ask anyone to switch into weird Civics (like Caste System), so this info probably only applies to Cathy, but whatever:
Cathy = switches at Cautious
Isabella = switches at Pleased
Joao = switches at Pleased
Ragnar = switches at Pleased
Victoria = switches at Friendly
Willem = switches at Pleased

Out of those, Cathy is possible, while Isabella and Joao won't be happy enough with us. Ragnar won't have the required tech, and Vicky won't be happy enough with us. Willem would also switch, but we'd have to trade him Code of Laws at some point.

It's at least worth keeping in mind in case he researches Aesthetics next (allowing us a possible last-minute trade of Code of Laws <-> Aesthetics), or perhaps if he has a large enough Gold balance for us to want to sell him Code of Laws and then further sell him something like Aesthetics just to switch him into Caste System.

It's probably not worth selling the techs, but forcing an AI into Anarchy and then possibly having them remain in that Civic and be unable to whip units when we attack them is a potentially very useful benefit.

One turn to land, possibly bombard the City, and attack it, gives the AI zero chance to complete a new unit that it wasn't already about to complete if it is not runnig Slavery. If it is running Slavery, it could certainly emegency-whip a new unit. Even if we spend 1 whole turn bombarding before attacking, if the AI is not in Slavery, it will be hard to complete itself a new defending unit within 2 turns. Meanwhile, if the AI is in Slavery, that might mean 2 additional not-cost-effectively-whipped defenders.

Besides, every population point that an AI whips (either during our war or even before then) means 1 less population point for US to be able to whip after we capture said City.
 
Thus, in the interest of being able to spend SOME Gold initially, while still being able to build some Warriors for a few turns, I'd like to whip Galleys as our first round of whipping.

Een in the GA we only generate 50 gold at 100% gold. Outside the golden age I estimate this will fall to 33 gold outside the GA -or enough to upgrade one warrior to a mace every 8.15 turns. The amount of gold currently available for trade is just enough for us to upgrade 1 more warrior. We would also want to save some gold to allow us to run at deficit gold for a time later. This means we won't be able to afford to upgrade many units, so I see no reason not to bulb astro as soon as it becomes available, as whatever limited upgrading we can do should be limited on the cheap warriors.

That way, we'll have a medium-term focus of being able to spend a SMALL amount of production now on cheap Warriors that will be upgraded over time, giving us a STEADY stream of Macemen. It also gives us the best upgrade-conversion factor over time (upgrading Warriors to Macemen being the most efficient use of our Gold). We'll still aim to get some Macemen and Trebs built in short order (probably with more focus on whipping Trebs and using overflow Hammers into cheap Warriors), but will have a balanced use for our excess Gold over time.

As I said above we won't have the gold to make this a viable strategy, and it would mean delaying our first war by several turns-I don't think this is worth it on the off chance that we might have the spare gold to upgrade them later. We will have plenty of warriors as military garrisons which could be upgraded and replaced with cheap archers if we found we had spare gold, however I think a better use for our surplus commerce would not be to use it for gold for upgrades, but to use it for reseraching drama next, this will give us acccess to the culture slider, and as whipping unhappinees is likely to be what is limiting our production it should give us far more hammers than upgrading 3 warriors would.

I won't let this stop me playing as it can wait till the next turnset, and I will leave the iron unhooked up at the end of my turnset.

Either method would allow us to Lightbulb Astronomy eventually, but getting Great Person #5 in Gold City would GUARANTEE that we can Lightbulb Astronomy early, since we'll have a 100% chance of getting a Great Scientist there.

I agree.

So, I suggest that we put off the decision on revolting into Bureaucracy until the first turn that we can possibly do so... then it will just be a matter of pausing play, uploading the game, and whoever wants to be the nice person can calculate the cost of 1 turn of Anarchy. Then we can compare that cost compared to our expected future whipping plans in Paris and see how long it would take for us to recover.

Agreed.
 
Een in the GA we only generate 50 gold at 100% gold. Outside the golden age I estimate this will fall to 33 gold outside the GA -or enough to upgrade one warrior to a mace every 8.15 turns. The amount of gold currently available for trade is just enough for us to upgrade 1 more warrior. We would also want to save some gold to allow us to run at deficit gold for a time later. This means we won't be able to afford to upgrade many units, so I see no reason not to bulb astro as soon as it becomes available, as whatever limited upgrading we can do should be limited on the cheap warriors.
That's fair.

As long as we don't need another Work Boat or something, I still think that Paris should manually-build a couple of Warriors after completing its Barracks by working the GH Mines and the Engineer Specialist (the Engineer Specialist gives 3 Hammers during the Golden Age, thanks to meeting a Hammer breakpoint for the Forge).

That way, we'll still have some units that can be upgraded in the future, without needing to delay Astronomy.
 
It might be worth splitting-up the rest of the turnset into a couple of rounds of play, anyway.

That way, we'll still have time to adjust things in case we forget any of the minor details, such as:
- Rehiring the Scientist in Pig City after he gets fired
- Switching the GPig to a Specialist for 2 turns in Pig City
- Moving Fur Island Warrior (and then moving him again once Optics is in)
- Netting and trading our Crab
- Gold Demand from Vicky followed by tech trades to Cathy
- Possible Code of Laws trade to Willem if we decide to try to switch him into Caste System
- Hiring an Artist Specialist in Iron City for 4 turns after it grows to Size 4
- Repositioning the western Trireme (if you agree with the suggestion of sending it 1SE)
- Sending only 1 Worker back to Iron Island and the other one to Chops some additional Forests
- Remembering to put a Warrior on the SE Horse Island
- Remembering to fire a Scientist in Marble City (more Food there means more future production)
- Remembering to work the Gold square in Gold City once our Great Person #5 is generated there
- Firing 2 Scientists in Paris and replacing them with an Engieneer and a GH Mine
- Remembering to Lightbulb Optics
- Moving the Iron Island Warrior inside of our Cultural Borders whenever he will cost us a Gold per Turn in Unit Supply Costs
- Note that this list is not a complete list

At least if we only play a few turns forward, then if you forget to do some of these things, then some of them still can be completed. For example, if we forget to hire an Artist in Iron City but only have 3 turns remaining before needing to switch our Civics, then we could hire 2 Artists for 1 turn (not as efficient, but it would still serve the purpose) and 1 Artist for 2 turns.
 
It might be worth splitting-up the rest of the turnset into a couple of rounds of play, anyway.

We now have less than a month to finish the game, we can't possibly afford to move as slowly as you are suggesting. Yes we could play 30T in one day if necessary but the cost of doing so will be much higher than any tiny benefit we get from playing these turns so slowly. This turnset has already taken longer than is wise in my opinion, so I will play in around 10 hours unless something major comes up before then.

I assume we have a consensus on the COL to Cathy for gold, and then trade philosophy for calendar plan?

As for the artist in iron I don't think it is worth the lost production. It won't give us access to any useable tiles, and a warrior in the horses island to the SE means that it won't give us any further early warning of approaching enemies.
 
If that's the case, then there is an easy communiction method of speeding up the process: spend an hour or two drawing-up a plan that we can approve. That way, we don't have to spend days back and forth trying to guess what you're doing and giving suggestions that may be overlooked, forgotten, or just ignored.


A PPP is just as useful, if not more so, for the Active Player.
 
The plan has already been posted. True I haven't given a detailed MM plan for most of our cities which are not going to generate a GP. There would be no point doing so because there MM will depend on just how many extra scientists we need to hire in order to finish our research on time, and we can not determine this accurately enough in advance due to uncertainty over the tech bonus for other AI's knowing the same tech. Anything I posted now would have to be tweaked later. If we were to debate these trivial MM issues before several small turn sets as you suggest it would take several days, which is time we would not have to look into more important details later in the game.
 
As for the artist in iron I don't think it is worth the lost production. It won't give us access to any useable tiles, and a warrior in the horses island to the SE means that it won't give us any further early warning of approaching enemies.
When combined with Optics, it gives a decent and cheap boost to fog-busting, which also allows us to either move that Warrior to the south end of Horse Island or over to the next island to the east, giving additional spawn-busting and visibility of AI movements.


794c05c1d2.jpg
 
The plan has already been posted.
Then please take the even smaller amount of time that it would take for you to properly update it and repost it. That way, we can be clear with what your plans are. Is that really so unfair to ask?


True I haven't given a detailed MM plan for most of our cities which are not going to generate a GP. There would be no point doing so because there MM will depend on just how many extra scientists we need to hire in order to finish our research on time, and we can not determine this accurately enough in advance due to uncertainty over the tech bonus for other AI's knowing the same tech.
Give as accurate a plan as you can. "X City might or might not hire or fire up to 2 Scientists, with the goal of researching Y1, Y2, and Y3 techs by date Z." That info is still very helpful and useful, both for us to know what's going on and for you to be able to keep on track while dealing with all of the details that cannot be planned for in a turnset.


Anything I posted now would have to be tweaked later.
No one says that by posting a plan, that it is carved in stone. If things happen differently in the game, then the plan can change. But the idea is that if things happen according to expectations, then the plan will guide your actions.


If we were to debate these trivial MM issues before several small turn sets as you suggest it would take several days, which is time we would not have to look into more important details later in the game.
Actually, we keep spending days and days when we ask one-off questions like:
I assume we have a consensus on the COL to Cathy for gold, and then trade philosophy for calendar plan?

If you put your intentions for that decision and the other decisions into a single post, we'd be able to quickly discuss any misunderstandings or disagreements, while quickly approving the rest.


One of the reasons that PPPs are used is because they speed up the process considerably. But don't take my word for it... post one and find out for yourself.
 
Gold:

Stay as it is until it generates the next GP, then fire scientists to work gold. Builds warrior, then starts barracks.

Pigs:
Fires one scientist for 1T to allow gold to generate next GP. Then rehire next turn. Hire extra scientist instead of working the pigs on T+5 to allow it to generate a GP on T+7. Note I intend to finish my turnset on T+6, so we can set up any whips next turn. Continues building warrior.

Marble:

Continues building barracks. Keep current citizen assignments. Possibly fire one scientist to avoid losing more food if it looks like the tech situation will permit it.

Capital:

Fire 1 scientist to work a coast, allowing us to grow on T+2. Then work production tiles/enginner consitent with finishing the barracks on T+7. If the tech situation requires this delay this in favour of working scientists instead of production tiles for the last few turns.

Stone:

Keep working current tiles, but hire some extra scientists here if the tech sitution requires it. Build forge-barracks.

iron:

Hires artist when it grows for 4T, then works mine. Build lighthouse-barracks

Misc:

workers chop forest then on the island SE of iron then head back to drop them of on iron island so they can hook up the iron(after this turnset). Between shuttling the workers to and from this island drop the warrior south of iron city off there as well

Move warrior on fur island 1NE.

Net crab this turn to trade for Williams gems.

Trade COL to Cathy for all her gold on T+5, demand gold from Vicky just before this, trade her philosophy for calendar on T+6.
If aethetics becomes available for trade, make this trade (probably pause at this point).

Research compass-machinery-construction-aesthetics with the intention of being able to finish all of this by T+7. Bulb astronomy and optics once they become available.

Triemes: 1 defends eastern approaches, one the SW approaches (1SE of current location), and the other the NW.

Espionage: No change.


I don't propose to trade COL to William as I think it would do more harm than good, and
we could always do it on the first turn of the next turnset anyway.

Happy now?
 
Happy now?
Yes, thank you.

Overall, the plan looks good and I'm fine with you playing ahead, while considering the following feedback:


Fire 1 scientist to work a coast, allowing us to grow on T+2.
If you want to grow Paris, that's fine. I will point out that Paris is at its Health limit, so if you do want to grow the City now, we will be losing 1 Food per turn to Unhealthiness. That means that the GCorn will be no better than a GRice square. However, we have the Happiness to be able to grow, so if you want to do it, go ahead.
An alternative approach would be to switch between working the Corn and hiring a Specialist, to keep us from growing to City Size 9.


Misc:
Between shuttling the workers to and from this island drop the warrior south of iron city off there as well
Note that since you do plan to go ahead with expanding Iron City's borders, then we could even consider dropping the Warrior off on the island to the east of the SE Horse Island, say, on the southern end of that island, while still getting some pretty good spawn-busting with that Warrior. I don't care which option you pick, but sending the Warrior to one further island to the east would give us more advance warning of any attack from the east. It seems that my screenshot in the message above got truncated when I uploaded it, so I have re-uploaded it so that you can see exactly which squares will be revealed by our Cultural Borders, to help you in making that decision.


Trade COL to Cathy for all her gold on T+5, demand gold from Vicky just before this, trade her philosophy for calendar on T+6.
shyuhe proposed that we trade Code of Laws <-> Monarchy + some of Cathy's Gold.

I suggested that we then try to trade Philosophy <-> Cathy switching into Caste System + Calendar + her remaining Gold (but only taking the switch into Caste System if she will still give us both Calendar AND all of her remaining Gold).

The timing of when you do the trading with Cathy probably doesn't matter TOO much, although one consideration is that Vicky may go down to Cautious at any time, which would mean that we would not be able to get Vicky's Gold anymore. I'll leave it up to you as to how much of a risk you want to take on this point, but nothing says that you need to make the Demand from Vicky on the same turn that you start the trading with Cathy.


I don't propose to trade COL to William as I think it would do more harm than good, and
we could always do it on the first turn of the next turnset anyway.
Sure, that's fine.


Good luck! :D
 
I've played.

The good news: Everything went to plan, and we are exactly where we wanted to be on T177. I forgot that aesthetics had a hire GS bulb preference than astronomy so it was impossible to set up any whips in advance on T176, so I thought I may as well play an extra turn to remove the GP uncertainty in pigs.



The bad news: Catherine researched feudalism this turn, and William will learn engineering in 14 turns, so it looks like William will be our first target after all.

Some intelligence:

T172: St Petersburg has 3 archers and an axe.

T174: Moscow has 2 axes and an archer, 1 galley outside and 2 axes+2spears+2 workers on the incense.

Edit: On second thoughts it's probable that Cathy got feudalism earlier, we just couldn't see it because of monarchy. Also she had a GM in Williams territory 2 turns ago, which judging by the gold display she has not used yet.
 
Looked at the save - looks good.

I think Cathy just got feudalism as one of her cities still has an archer in it. It's unfortunate but not much we can do about it. Let's try to take down Willem before he starts fielding longbows behind castles. We should try to figure out where his other two cities are located.

I know we're going to start stock piling cash but what is our general philosophy going to be about conquering cities? Are we going to try keeping any? if so, we will want to send a few archers for military garrison purposes.
 
Nice work, mdy! :goodjob:


mdy said:
so I thought I may as well play an extra turn to remove the GP uncertainty in pigs.
Don't hold us in suspense! What's the answer? Did we get our Great Scientist?


mdy said:
On second thoughts it's probable that Cathy got feudalism earlier, we just couldn't see it because of monarchy
Do you mean to say that we only got Monarchy in trade just recently?

We we able to get Cathy into Caste System as part of the trading?


mdy said:
so it was impossible to set up any whips in advance on T176
Did we get any 2-pop-whip build items started, such as Barracks or Galleys?


Let's try to take down Willem before he starts fielding longbows behind castles. We should try to figure out where his other two cities are located.
I agree. Longbowmen (which he may get himself--but not until after Engineering or with some tech trading) are going to be a pain in the rear, but worse than them will be Castles.

At least Bombarding + Collateral damage can deal with Longbowmen. Castles just SLOOOOOOOW things down so much (or else force you to skip Bombarding and suicide units or force you to expend all of your Commerce on Espionage).


I know we're going to start stock piling cash but what is our general philosophy going to be about conquering cities? Are we going to try keeping any? if so, we will want to send a few archers for military garrison purposes.
I would think that we'd keep decent Cities (2 to 3 Food or Strategic Resources) that are of a reasonably large size... and probably keep more Cities near the start of conquering, while perhaps razing more later on.

We will probably keep AT LEAST 1 City from each AI, if only to give ourselves a base from which to heal units faster while not incurring Unit Supply Costs.


As for Great Generals... it's probably going to be too late in the game to settle them. Ideally, we'd build Military Academies, but since the Military Science tech is required, that likely means joining them to units... possibly joining to a stack of Trebs/Maces so that all of the units in a stack can get City Raider III... the special promos for a Great General (such as Medic III) will probably be of little use... units can heal on the Galleons.
 
I took a look at the save. Things appear to be in good shape.

We have spawn-busters in good positions.

Most of the Specialists have been fired in anticipation of a Civic switch.

One minor change that will need to happen (probably on the turn after the Golden Age is over) is to switch Iron City's Plains square (that does not have an improvement on it but is making 1F 2H in the Golden Age) to a Coast square.

We have set our research to 100% on Drama and still have 1 turn left of research in Civil Service.


I'm actually going to recommend that we do not self-tech Drama and that we start saving-up Gold for unit upgrades.

I think that it will be to our advantage to trade-around Aesthetics. Cathy will agree to switch into Caste System + Pacifism for Aesthetics, which is a trade that we'd need to make before switching our own Civics. She would certainly be far-less-prepared for war by running these Civics.

Other AIs could give us Gold for Aesthetics.

One AI (Joao, I think that it was) already knows Literature. With all of the AIs having Aesthetics, we should be able to get both Literature and Drama in trade eventually.

There is no immediate need for Happiness... in fact, getting Willem's Gem means that only Gold City will be Unhappy (since it only has 2 Happiness above its Unhappiness level) once we switch Civics. So, we'll probably want to switch the build queue in Gold City and whip the Barracks there--a 2-pop-whip item. Other Cities don't have Hammers invested into build items, but those Cities will be happy, so we might as well wait until these other Cities will have growth in 1 turn before whipping in them. A possible exception case is Paris, which is Unhealthy and thus we might want to whip there after 1 turn worth of Hammers get invested into a build item.

I'd still recommend that we overflow Hammers from whipping into Warriors for a little while--either for future upgrades or for Military Police in our captured Cities.


Of the three Cities of Willem's that we can see, we can attack 2 of them easily, but the other one appears to be "more in the back." We may be able to sail around the north part of his landmass to sneak in there, but we don't know for certain yet.

Ideally, we'd land troops simultaneously at all of his big-sized Cities on the first turn of war.

Now would also be the time to decide whether we are going to sell/gift him Code of Laws, followed by bribing him into Caste System. I closed the game, so I don't remember, but if he doesn't have Aesthetics, then we'd be able to sell him Code of Laws for his Gold and then sell him Aesthetics to switch into Caste System. We don't necessarily have to do so, but now will be the last time to do so--i.e. before our own Civic switches. If we think that we can attack him within about 15 turns, then I think that the investment will be worthwhile, as he won't have time to research both Engineering and Civil Service in that time period, while putting him into Caste System will make the war go much smoother. It will also give him a turn of Anarchy (and 2 turns of Anarchy if he switches back to Slavery, say, after the war begins).

Now that we've achieved our tech goals, the more that we can "mess up" the AIs (such as by forcing them to endure turns of Anarchy), the better.

Assuming that the AIs are subject to the same Anarchy timings that we are subject to, then Cathy would waste 2 turns to get switched into Caste System and Pacifism.


Since we will hope to get Drama in trade, I'm not sure what to set research to at a 0% Science Rate.


Another good part about selling the AIs Aesthetics would be them going for Literature and/or Drama, followed by some of them likely wasting time on the race to Music--let the AIs waste their Flasks that way, while we collect Gold to be able to bring them Warriors-upgraded-to-Macemen.


If Feudalism comes up for trade, I suggest that we DO NOT trade for it. We can't take Vassals and Longbowmen will be of little use for us--if we can't stop the enemy AIs with Galleons and Macemen, then we will be sucking so badly that Longbowmen won't be able to save us. :p On the other hand, if we learn Feudalism, then that tech just becomes cheaper and easier-to-trade-around for the other AIs.

It is nice to see that Ragnar still does not know Mysticism.

What is NOT nice to see is that Isabella seems to have 7 Cities. I would like to target her as probably AI #3 (after Willem and Cathy), with the hopes that we can hit her before she upgrades to Longbowmen.

In fact, it might even be worth sending a small stack of units towards her (say, 6 units inside of 2 Galleons, sent after our initial attack wave on Willem) with the goal of just starting a war before she gets Feudalism and then razing one or two of her key Cities.
 
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