SGOTM 17 - Fifth Element

I meant to say SP is much better then mercantilism once we have AL.
 
I meant to say SP is much better then mercantilism once we have AL.
So you mean once we have some factory in place.
But there's still the research and with repr we gain 3 additional beakers for any specialist and if we have some 30 cities this means we gain 90 raw beakers, 180 if we can run all scis, in any case between the 2. Can they be compensated by the diminished maintenance and by the increase in production?
Maybe the "another mathematician" can give some numbers on this. As usual i can be convinced with gooooood arguments. :)

It's assured that we need some factory to build paras quickly, so maybe. But we need to revolt during next GAge to benefit and to compensate the - basically - loss of 3 WWs.

Then if we want full benefit we must run Caste, so the Kremlin goes for nothing. Unless we revolt back to slavery in the 3rd and last GAge.
 
Maybe the "another mathematician" can give some numbers on this. <- I'll try, but later, when I get home.
 
Maybe the "another mathematician" can give some numbers on this. <- I'll try, but later, when I get home.
OK.

This is to inform you that i posted a final game plan on page 1, post #5.

I posted a plan A and a plan B for research whose main difference is Communism.
Obviously we need to refine both as the game progresses.

Same for the war, including the cities to keep/raze.

If we have a good and shared plan we can avoid to discuss the same thing dozen of times, concentrate on details and save RL time now that we're less than 40 days to the deadline.

I'll keep that plan updated with our decisions. Obviously the first is the choice between the 2 research plans, which i hope we can have tonight.
 
OK Shaan, i made some math for you :)
ATM the total cost for distance from Palace is 140.98
We have 25 cities and 22 rathaus. The 3 cities witout are the 2 last Khmer and Lubeck for 29.20
For the remaining 111.78 (22 cities w/rath), we're paying 27.945 gpt, so around the 6% of our commerce (500).

So, on that side SP is negligible.

ATM, we've 22 workshops. Assuming that we can run 11 more specs due to the increase of food, we can have 66 more bpt if we run 11 sci.

The +10% production is on base hammers and gives benefits only if turned on research or whealth. In BtS we have the 100% of both, but without multipliers.
i.e. if your city works tiles for 20 hammers, has a forge and you "produce" research, you got 25 beakers even if you have Oxford.
This is one of the main differences in the base mechanics compared to Vanilla where you has the 50% but before multipliers and excluding production multipliers like forges (Warlords is the same as BtS).

Last (because it takes too long to sum this) we produce some 10-11 hammers/city on average, so the production bonus is very low. If the game counts the fractions (and it should do so) we can gain some 25-30 base hpt, which are not of great help for anything.

Resuming:
- we save 28 gpt
- we can (maybe) hire 11 more specialists
- we can have 30 base hpt
the above is taking in account our present situation, but it can improve
If we consider an optimistic 90 turns to the end, we can save 2520 g, we can hire some 20 more specs for minimum 3 base bpt for 16200 beakers and have at the same time more production. We can use the Kremlin when we need it and have a free GPerson, for a 4095 research detour.
Which costs us 12 raw bpt, a lower GP generation and free priest.
But we renounce to 1 free spec/city of merc which compensates. But we can have better trade routes, at least after we take Khoisan and until we atart bulldozing Russia.

You need to plan which farms to bulldoze, but... I'm afraid your idea is good. :scan: But i can be wrong.
 
Better refine the compts in my previous post.

Trade routes:
we cannot consider them, since:
a) we need to take Khoisan first
b) few turns after a) we can be ready to declare on Peter
c) once we start the war with Qin (immediately) we lose any TR with the 3 southern AIs. Actually only with him.

Let's consider 90 turns until we hit Fascism. Very optimistic, but every civic will last for those 90 turns or at least for the same part. If we can get it faster, good, if not the counts below will be affected in the same way.

Mercantilism
We have at present 25 cities, and any of them will give us a free spec. Even considering a citizen, after Representation (9 turns if we don't have a really bad luck) this is worth 3 raw bpt/city, no matter which improvements, buildings, anything you have.
- In 16 turns we can have 30 cities (4 from China plus Khoisan)
- in 22 we can have 32
- in 32, 33
Let's stop here.
25*3*90 + 5*3*74 + 2*3*68 + 1*3*58 = 8034 raw beakers to the end, guaranteed, doing nothing. I did not considered the turns of revolt, but i've put all the conquered cities on the turn of the last, so the compt is an average.

The 20 more specs our cities can hire are theoretical and not guaranteed. Assuming they are, we can have them for some 80 turns in cities with already excess food.
20*3*80 = 4800 (my compt in post #1145 was wrong because i inserted 9*30*90=16200)

Present WorldWonders
If we give up on the idea of quick Communism, we can research SM once we see we need it to win the Physics race or when we please. Once Qin lost 4 of his 7 cities he can't be on competition. I doubt Chur can be a problem, maybe Peter if we can't start bulldozing him first.
Can we assume we can delay SM by 30 turns? Yes. If we can delay it more, the calculations below will only improve. Obviously, i consider to run repr. for 21 of those 30 turns and to not change civics before the GAge.
GLib: 12*21 = 252 + ToA: 3*21 = 63 Total: 315. ToA also gives 100% of TR, but we can even not consider it.
Parthenon: 30*.5*21 (Mainz) + 24*.5*21 (Ulm) 567 GPP, more than half a GPerson, considering we need 800 now, 900, 1000. If we run Caste during the GAge we can have one or more GPersons of choice. To have a GSpy we burn almost another GPerson.

As i exposed in my previous post, the saving for SP is negligible for maintenance, 2520g total, maybe 3000 for the considered 90 turns.
We need to invest 4095b on Communism.

Final thoughts:
- We all agree that research is the bottleneck and the 90 hypothetical turns are tied to it.
- by researching Communism we add 4095 beakers to the 55432 needed
- by running SP for 81 of the 90 turns we can gain 4800b, but we lose 8034 at worst, surely more.
- about specialists, it's true we soon have the SoL, but it can be a only an addition to our research and in any case we can have it with any civic we run, so the effect is evened
- maintenance savings are negligible with rathaus
- production bonus is low, due to our low hammer cities, but even if it can be good, it's not the bottleneck. In fact, we're speaking of 90 turns of research, but to start bulldoze Japan we need only 35 turns at worst, less to start with Russia.
So, in max 55 turns from now we can be done with all the AIs but England, disband the most of our army and wait for paras. The only way to decrease those 90 turns are commerce and consequent research, not production.

Sorry Shaan, your idea deserved attention and i think i gave it. But it's not so good after all. My apologies for the mistakes in my previous post.
 
Well, I would try to argue but I'm pretty tired, and I'm not sure that I'm right either, mainly due to the fact that the game won't be long now. We will be over that 55000 beakers in no time.

I'll still write my thoughts, so you can see why I'm still not very convinced (but again, I admit that you might be right that not going for Communism is better in this situation.)

The one thing that is missing (and is the main reason why SP is one of the two best endgame civics) is food. The 1 extra food from the workshops (which we would build much more of, not run the 22 we have) is extremely important. 1F=1.5h-2h easily even later in the game, because we can grow. Think about how empires blow up after biology. All that Biology does is add 1 food to farms. SP is the same with workshops.

Hiring specs is much worse than working (more) workshops. A farmed city working specs pre-biology can have let's say on average 12 food surplus, which gives room for 5 specs. Now a city with 10 workshops instead of farms (and 2 food surplus) would run no specs, but have 40 hammers. Those 40 hammers can be used as 50 wealth/research (which is already stronger than what we get from specs in our average city with 1 library), but it can be used to gain military advantage, or build WWs, or some other important infra. Again a thing hard to measure, but you have to appreciate its benefits.

What to do now?
Since I'm too tired (not feeling well right now... ) to make an estimate that would take food into account (and it is possible that it would be useless other than for case study&learning purposes), I'll leave this decision to you, guys.

Usually I feel kind of lame about doing these things. As mathematician, I could do some pretty accurate things, they would be educational for beginners, and maybe I could present some interesting things to the pros too. But it takes a lot of time, and a lot of game data would be needed. I don't have any tools to acces this kind of data from a save other than by hand, which is tedious and unexciting. The other thing is a lot of people don't appreciate this kind of effort.

So to sum up, thanks for the effort&time you made to make the prev posts, Blub! ;)
I'll be happy to go for rep->rifling if the others agree.
 
PPP

Research & Diplo:
Tech Replaceable parts-> Rifling ->
Don't trade, unless Sury wants to give us Econ for some mysterious reason.

War:
Declare on Qin next turn. Move full stack and take Gouanzhou, then Bejing. (keep both.) Stop to report.
Meanwhile raze the two barb cities, and get ship to Koishan to take that too.

Cities&Workers
Build and ship 3-4 cannons and 3-4 muskets plus a few LBs to kill Peter.
Western cities whip/make some more Landschnekts and Muskets, a couple LBs to sit in our cities, and some cannons too if the ones on the fornt lines get flanked. The rest builds wealth so we can keep slider as high as possible.

Get Ulm GP in 8 turns and start golden age. report before ending turn so we can discuss civic switch.

Workers clear the rest of the jungles, building workshops if there is enough food.

Angkor Thom builds culture for 1 turn before getting the grocer.

Let me know if I forgot something or you need more details about city management/troop movements.
 
So to sum up, thanks for the effort&time you made to make the prev posts, Blub! ;)
You're welcome, but this is the fun of this succession games: new ideas, weight of pros and cons, exposition trying to be neutral.

I think my latest post is correct, but you can be right about workshops. I did not took them much into play, i focused more on specialists (free specialists).
Those latter are absolutely safe and assured, anything you can do.

I admit that WS can play a good role, but you must consider the time to build them and the need to use them to build whealth or research, maybe sacrificing useful buildings or units. Without cities building whealth or research we need specialists and only food can give them.

In any case if you can find the time and you want to crunch some number i'll be happy to see your results.

For now, let's stay on the safe path. I'll answer to your PPP quoting it. But i'm afraid you missed my plans on page 1. Rifling can be delayed until we feel the need for it or even until after Flight if we don't.

So, if you agree i'll update that post with the only shared plan: A.
 
True, I missed that.

Okay, let' just research Repl parts, and only go for Rifles next if we get badly killed by Qin's cuirs (If so, I'll let you know.) I'm a bit paranoid that even after pillaging the horse resource he will rebuild the pasture immediately. Luckily we have a second spy witing to go for his iron.

If the war goes well I'll switch to Astro as next tech.

Rifling is prereq for building Paras, so we will feel the need :D
 
True, I missed that.
shame! :)
Okay, let' just research Repl parts, and only go for Rifles next if we get badly killed by Qin's cuirs (If so, I'll let you know.) I'm a bit paranoid that even after pillaging the horse resource he will rebuild the pasture immediately. Luckily we have a second spy witing to go for his iron.

If the war goes well I'll switch to Astro as next tech.

Rifling is prereq for building Paras, so we will feel the need :D
In any case, unless you spend some gold to upgrade Muskets you can't have rifles quickly to the front. Worse, we can't have the tech so soon to be of help :(

Thus i think we can go straight for Astro after RP. After the fall of Beijing the iron will remain under his culture, but we can pillage it easily in the old way with a knight.

But with LKs, WEs and C3 knights i do not fear too much a handful of cuirs.

Maybe we need to change the war plans i posted on page 1. Shangai has Chicken Pizza and has high culture. Maybe is worth to raze it immediately, even if it's 5 turns of delay in the fall of Xian. Unless you can use 2 stacks. Unless I can use 2 stacks. It's my turn after 9 more turns :p
 
PPP

Research & Diplo:
Tech Replaceable parts-> Rifling ->
Don't trade, unless Sury wants to give us Econ for some mysterious reason.
Very mysterious, since we're his worst enemy :)
But Peter is willing to trade it, the problem is that PP puts him closer to rifling and Chem is out of question... too close to 2 military techs. But we can see what the others think. In any case, i'm pretty sure we can have it for peace from Qin and delay it is not a problem, as you will see by my proposed path below.


War:
Declare on Qin next turn. Move full stack and take Gouanzhou, then Bejing. (keep both.) Stop to report.
Meanwhile raze the two barb cities, and get ship to Koishan to take that too.
It's all OK, but why wait next turn? we've enough full health units to take the entire world. A small delay, probably 1 turn for the slightly injured units to heal changes nothing.

Cities&Workers
Build and ship 3-4 cannons and 3-4 muskets plus a few LBs to start preparing to kill Peter.
Western cities whip/make some more Landschnekts and Muskets, a couple LBs to sit in our cities, and some cannons too if the ones on the fornt lines get flanked. The rest builds wealth so we can keep slider as high as possible.
We need more than that for Peter. Knights can do a very good job in that land.
Get Ulm GP in 8 turns and start golden age. report before ending turn so we can discuss civic switch.
I tell how i see this possible below
Workers clear the rest of the jungles, building workshops if there is enough food.

Angkor Thom builds culture for 1 turn before getting the grocer.
OK, then a Buddhist monastery. It's cheaper than a library, it gives the same culture and we can build missionaries if we cease to run OR.
Let me know if I forgot something or you need more details about city management/troop movements.
Research:
RP, Astro, SP, RR, then we'll see if we need Rifling or which is the situation when we'll be ready to peace.

Barb cities
We already decided to pillage everything but roads. But remember to pillage a railroad (i think the tile 3S of the pigs you pillaged) to avoid any unwanted quick arrival.
BTW, i think we can have a good bunch of cash by doing that. Use fast moving units, or we finish to pay too much maintenance and to be delayed to Khoisan. And keep a good unit in the area of Khazak to avoid a barb city spawn. Or any barb spawn.

GP from Ulm in 8 turns
if you work a farm for 2 turns instead of horses, you can hire a 9th spec for 1 turn. No more, because you need to run a sci. Then you take back the horses and fire the sci.
We're 290 GPP to the GPerson, so it's 8.05 turns. running that 9th spec for 1 turn will give us a small overflow and the city won't lose pop. This is important because we want another GP from Ulm after Mainz during the GAge.

About civics, i see: Representation, Bureau, Caste, Merc and Pacifism. I do not think that we can run pacifism for more than 5 turns, but we'll see.

You need some micro, mainly Timbu/Gao. Timbu can work riverside pigs and mine, horses and all its mature cottages. Hire a merc instead of an eng. Gao the coast - verify , not ocen - and a fresh cottage for Timbu later. Only by doing this you can keep 40% with +1gpt. But you will set to 0 for 2 turns.
 
We can get Suryavarman to cautious if we revolt to Buddhism and give him a tech. But it is hard to get the timing right. At the beginning of the golden age we loose pacifism bonus and at the end we might not want to keep him around. But it is an option if we go for Japan first.

Blubmuz, your numbers are not completely correct. At the moment we pay 82 gpt for distance. And we will not continue to have 22 workshops. Our Khmer cities will have 14 more workshops. If we go communism we should get 4 workshops per city. In essence we have 1 now. We trade 2 food into 12 hammer in every city (assuming caste).

We have 19 workers so we may build 4 workshops a turn. Turning 4 food into 16 hammers every day. While 4 food is worth 12 commerce under representation. Specialists require the city to grow while in SP we get the bonus at once.

SP is 97 cheaper (distance and upkeep) give 25 hammers, 36 food. compared to about 190 gold for mercantilism. It looks even to me but SP has more potential with higher growth rate. But it is very complicated to determine if it will return the investment.
 
If we are lucky Suryavarman will demand a tech from us. Give in to his demand and he will turn cautious when we go into free religion.
 
I think the question of communism should be "How many beakers can we get from our great spy?"
 
Research:
RP, Astro, SP, RR, then we'll see if we need Rifling or which is the situation when we'll be ready to peace.

Barb cities
We already decided to pillage everything but roads. But remember to pillage a railroad (i think the tile 3S of the pigs you pillaged) to avoid any unwanted quick arrival.
I could pillage the railroads too after moving the stack up north. We won't really need that any more.
BTW, i think we can have a good bunch of cash by doing that. Use fast moving units, or we finish to pay too much maintenance and to be delayed to Khoisan. And keep a good unit in the area of Khazak to avoid a barb city spawn. Or any barb spawn.

GP from Ulm in 8 turns
if you work a farm for 2 turns instead of horses, you can hire a 9th spec for 1 turn. No more, because you need to run a sci. Then you take back the horses and fire the sci.
We're 290 GPP to the GPerson, so it's 8.05 turns. running that 9th spec for 1 turn will give us a small overflow and the city won't lose pop. This is important because we want another GP from Ulm after Mainz during the GAge.

I have figured this out already :p

About civics, i see: Representation, Bureau, Caste, Merc and Pacifism. I do not think that we can run pacifism for more than 5 turns, but we'll see.

You need some micro, mainly Timbu/Gao. Timbu can work riverside pigs and mine, horses and all its mature cottages. Hire a merc instead of an eng. Gao the coast - verify , not ocen - and a fresh cottage for Timbu later. Only by doing this you can keep 40% with +1gpt. But you will set to 0 for 2 turns.

Why wait for declaration? because a good chunk of our units have already moved this turn IIRC. I want to keep the stack together because we are looking at cuirs as enemies after all.
 
SP is 97 cheaper (distance and upkeep) give 25 hammers, 36 food. compared to about 190 gold for mercantilism. It looks even to me but SP has more potential with higher growth rate. But it is very complicated to determine if it will return the investment.
Those 97 are wrong or at least temporary. For all our cities but the last 3 we're paying 22gpt for distance from Palace. It's the only part of maintenance costs SP annuls. Then yes, i forgot the civics upkeep, but it's 188 versus 199, so it's 11 gpt. Probably increasing as we grow, but still not much compared to the raw beakers generated by free specialists.

About workshps, it's true that the just taken cities have a good number. But they don't let them grow. Watermills are great under this aspect, because they become a sort of "farmshop". But we don't have 1 and we can't build much of them because we already have mature cottages or farms to start chains riverside.

If we are lucky Suryavarman will demand a tech from us. Give in to his demand and he will turn cautious when we go into free religion.
We can't care that less. FR will nullify the pacifism bonus we need to generate more GPs during the GAge and brings us 1 happy in few cities. By the time we can consider it, Sury is close to be wiped.
I think the question of communism should be "How many beakers can we get from our great spy?"
In which way? It's a real question, i don't get it. If you mean beacuse it can be 1/3rd of a GAge, a lot, but we can have another GPerson easily during next GAge. We have 2 GSs now and an unknown GP from Ulm in 8. Let's assume he's a GM and hope he's not a GS. Few turns (2?) later we can see what we have from Mainz and set Ulm to generate a GA if we get a GM or viceversa. Let's stop here on this argument because we need to see what we have from Mainz. Too many "if" for now.
 
Why wait for declaration? because a good chunk of our units have already moved this turn IIRC. I want to keep the stack together because we are looking at cuirs as enemies after all.
Considering both stacks, only full health+full moves units: 6 cannons, 5 trebs, 2 Kn, 1 musket, 3 maces, 2 LKs, 1 WE and some other at your choice. You can also add some not full health, but still in fgood shape full moves units. We're paying for those units, better have an use.

Before to move the worker stacked with them, verify if 1NW of the desert hill there's a road and if not move him there to build it.
 
Those 97 are wrong or at least temporary. For all our cities but the last 3 we're paying 22gpt for distance from Palace. It's the only part of maintenance costs SP annuls. Then yes, i forgot the civics upkeep, but it's 188 versus 199, so it's 11 gpt. Probably increasing as we grow, but still not much compared to the raw beakers generated by free specialists.

You are forgetting the inflation.
 
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