SGOTM 17 - Fifth Element

[BLubmuz]

You are forgetting the inflation.

Not actually. It's a parameter you can't control and it's random at any turn.
I've found this post by a modder and definitely the mechanics are unknown even if you look at the code.

Loading some save, on turn 172 it was 103, t192 164, t194 163. I can't see any relation between those numbers. Probably is tied to the population, but in any case it's random.
There can be a relation with the Total Income (F2-central column) but in the 4 saves examinated it varies from 25 to 32%.

It's not a variable you can consider for any decision.

 

[Folket]

It is just that costs scale over time. I'm not certain how it works but at the moment our inflation is 45%. This can be seen in the finance (f2) screen.

 

[Folket]

Loading some save, on turn 172 it was 103, t192 164, t194 163.

It is really simple, if you hold your mouse over inflation it will tell you how high the inflation is.

Probably inflation went up a few procent between turn 172 and 194. Likely we conquered new cities which increased our costs and that is why inflation "cost" is so much higher.

So when we calculate all maintenance and upkeep costs should be multiplied with 1.45 and this number will increase over time.

 

[Folket]

For all our cities but the last 3 we're paying 22gpt for distance from Palace.

The thing is that we will always have cities without rauthauses. We will conquer cities faster and faster. If we sit back 10 turns our maintenance will go down but we are not likely to be doing that. I expect maintenance to go up from here.

 

[BLubmuz]

It is really simple, if you hold your mouse over inflation it will tell you how high the inflation is.

Probably inflation went up a few procent between turn 172 and 194. Likely we conquered new cities which increased our costs and that is why inflation "cost" is so much higher.

So when we calculate all maintenance and upkeep costs should be multiplied with 1.45 and this number will increase over time.

I never thought to mouse over any part of F2... live and learn. But it's broken. But we must take in account that it's broken.

It adds to the cities maintenance the cities still in revolt, when in the city screen and F1 they seem to not generate any cost, like they do not generate anything else.

I will try a new comparison using those new infos.

 

[BLubmuz]

Let's try this new comparison, being accurate but synthetic... hopefully.

Part 1, premise:
a0) it's not assured we have a non GS from Ulm (fingers crossed).
a1) the pair SM+Commu costs 3510+4095=7605b, 8.2 turns at the present pace (930 @100%). One of our 2 GSs can give 2196b, 2.4 turns.
a2) we need to use full research for 5.8 turns, which means 14.5 turns @40%. This time can be lowered by the GAge and by conquest+pillage gold, so we can assume 11-13 turns. Thus is discarded to change from Merc to SP at the beginning of the GAge.
Obviously if we decide for this path, we can accumulate gold for 6 turns, bulb and keep 100% until completion. Then, since we want to revolt to Repr. on the first turn of our GAge, we need at least 13 turns from now. We can't be ready in 8 turns, period.

a3) We must delay SM until Ulm generates its GP or we need to delay the GAge, which i don't think we want. But we can have Commu in in 13 turns anyway. We're not forced to adopt it immediately, we can wait until the last turn of the GAge, to increase the benefits of free specialists. Thus, from now on i will compare the 2 civics considering to adopt SP 20 turns from now and to have SM 8 turns from now.
a4) in case we have a GS from Ulm, and even if not, we have a plan B: hire a 2nd artist in Mainz starting 4 turns from now, starving it but without lose pop. We can have another GP in 10 turns, but again the gene is polluted by scis.

 

[Shaandore]

PPP

Research & Diplo:
Tech Replaceable parts-> Astro
Don't trade, unless Sury wants to give us Econ for some mysterious reason.

War:
Pillage horse this turn.
Declare on Qin next turn this turn. Move full stack and take Gouanzhou, then Bejing. (keep both.) Stop to report.
Meanwhile raze the two barb cities, and get ship to Koishan to take that too.

Cities&Workers
Build and ship 5-6 cannons and 5-6 muskets/knights plus a few LBs to prepare for kill Peter.
Western cities whip/make some more Landschnekts and Muskets, a couple LBs to sit in our cities, and some cannons too if the ones on the fornt lines get flanked. The rest builds wealth so we can keep slider as high as possible.

Get Ulm GP in 8 turns and start golden age. report before ending turn because I don't like playing a lot in one sitting, so we can discuss civic switch.
Do the micro changes Blub suggested in Timbu and Gao.

Workers clear the rest of the jungles, building workshops if there is enough food.

Angkor Thom builds culture for 1 turn before getting the grocer. I don't understand why we would need more culture than that. Or buddhist missionaries. AP is gone, and it's not our state religion. The shrine alone won't pay for the monastery and missionary costs in the next ~50-60 turns

Let me know if I forgot something or you need more details about city management/troop movements.

I could play in a few hours if that's okay.

 

[BLubmuz]

I could play in a few hours if that's okay.

Yes it is.
About the monastery, if we go for communism is our last chance to build missionaries in future if/when we don't run OR. It's a suggestion anyway.

With WS and a market any city running Buddhism is worth 3gpt. Just that to help you take your decision

I'm working on the comparison between SP and Merc. I already posted the premise, more will follow provided i can be free from my tyrant after we painted home.

 

[Folket]

I agree that we do not need any Buddhist missionaries. I only wanted to push some culture against the Khmer.

After the work-through of the number I think getting SP at the end of the golden age would be very nice. Then use the spy to steal economics.

 

[Shaandore]

Yes it is.
About the monastery, if we go for communism is our last chance to build missionaries in future if/when we don't run OR. It's a suggestion anyway.

With WS and a market any city running Buddhism is worth 3gpt. Just that to help you take your decision

I'm working on the comparison between SP and Merc. I already posted the premise, more will follow provided i can be free from my tyrant after we painted home.

We are multiple techs away from WS. And we would need to build it, it takes a lot of hammers, and our cities are hammer poor (especially if we stick to non-communism path). So it is rather 2 gold per turn for a long while. And it takes 100 hammers to build a monastery+missionary, which is exactly 100 gold when building wealth. See where I'm getting at? 50 turns for a single city to pay for it, or 35 turns for two cities. And I didn't take into account that we would still need immediate bank+grocer market from this turn in the shrine city, a very unrealistic assumption.

About your previous post: we have MoM, so GA lasts 12 turns. Which means we can change civics in the beginning, in the middle and in the end.

 

[BLubmuz]

First i need to couple the war plans with costs
revolts are estimated, i can't find any accurate way to foresee them. I know the turns are related to population, nothing more.

t194 declare on Qin
t197 Guang fall, 8 turns, 205, no variations
t201 Bei fall, 211, no variations
t206 Nan fall, 214, back to slavery, so a rathaus can be whipped - no variations
t210 Xian fall, 218, same, but 4 turns of pain = 80g
let's assume the worst case, no CHs in any city and let's consider 20gpt maintenance each or i risk to go crazy. Since we're planning to revolt on turn 214, maintenance can't be affected until then.

B) Communism variant:

4095 beakers spent on a non necessary tech (let's see if tit can be useful though)

turn 194, 1670 AD (now)
turn 202, SM in, GP in, start GAge.
turn 207, Commu in, GSpy in
turn 214, GAge ends, revolt to SP

turn 202: (considering we run Repr. by then)
- 4 monasteries generating the 10% of 763c when we run 100% out
- GLib: 12bpt out*32=384
- ToA: 4 cpt+3bpt+1gpt+1hpt out*32=128/96/32/32
- Part: +50% GPP out*32=54*.5*32+6*2.5*32(GLib)=1344 (considering only Mainz and Ulm)

turn 214:
29 free specs out, 3*29=87 bpt out plus any other thing they can generate*70=6090
minor DfP in: at present, 57*1.45=83gpt
by turn 214: we can whip CHs in Yasoda and Nagara just before to switch to Caste, so the 83 will drop to 58, but we must add 13 for any new conquered city, to use the criteria in premise if we don't run SP.

Let's continue to assume those 90 turns, just to keep the same data i used yesterday.
Actually some difference (SM) is roughly 90-8 (certain)-32 (estimate)=50, while SP is 90-20=70 Something will change later in the game, but - again - i risk to go crazy.

Sum (raw lost):
beakers : 384+96+6090=6570
gold : 32
hammers: 32
commerce: 128
GreatPersons: 1

Benefits of SP:
- 22 WS now, 26 in Khmer, China and Khmer to take= 48 more food
- we can convert some farm, i think no more than 20, because many are needed to irrigate rice and we don't want to lose pop.
- We can convert some farm to watermills, or even some WS to watermills: the potential is for 7 in the city we already own (6 farms and 1 WS), 8 for China and Khmer (all WS) so we gain 2+2*8=18F and 2*6-8=4H
- production bonus is 10% raw, so we can have some 40hpt more on average

Below i consider to take: 2 khmer, 1 china, 4 japan, 3 Russia, 1 barbs, total 11 cities, no CH at conquest, 10 turns of revolt each, 13 DfP cost. And to have them with rathaus for an average of 40 turns.
The 58 we have by turn 214 will increase to 70, just to assume a fair value.

Sum (raw gain):
food:48-20+18=46*70=3220
hammers: 3*48+4+40 (10% of 400, target)=13160
maintenance: 11*10*13+13*11*.25*40+70*70=7760gpt*1.45=11252
GreatPersons: 1

 

[Shaandore]

Spoiler :

Here is my comparison:

I assumed 1gold=1beaker=1hammer, and 1 food=1.5 hammer. Why, because on average we have ~1.25 muliplier on each of gold, beaker and hammer. I have already stated why food is stronger than these. Naturally, beakers are a bit weaker since we have better multipliers, so this assumption helps Merc in the comparison. Food's worth is always questionable, but let's try it like this for now.

Communism, assuming 80 workshops on average:
+ ~100 gpt immediate gain (dist maintenance and cheaper civic)
+ 80 fpt (I'll use 1.5 multiplier here, it's questionable)
+ ~50 hpt from 10% bonus
- 4095 beakers
- 15 bpt (on average, since we can't switch to Rep for a while) for let's say 25 turns (Great library obsoletes earlier)
- Parthenon: we lose 2/3 of a Gperson's GPP
- ToA, GLib GPP loss: another 1/3 of a Great Person
+ we get a Gspy, so let's say it's even on GPP front.

Sum: 100+80*1.5+50 = 270 unit per turn
But lose 4095(commmunism)+25*15~= 4500 units

So T turns from now we have at least 270*T-4500

Merc: assuming 30 cities on average, and Rep from 8 turns from now:
3.25(average gain from a spec in next 8 turns. note that more than half of our cities doesn't have library)*30 for 8 turns
later 7.5*30 beakers every turn after that.

So after 8 turns have passed, gain function looks like this:

3.25*30*8+(T-8)*7.5*30=780+(T-8)*225

A quick calculation shows that we would need 158 turns to even out. So yes, with this many cities, and low workshop count and low maintenance cost due to Rathauses and few game time left, and no foreign trade routes in communism, it looks like merc is better.

Pretty much everything is against running communism in this game, except maybe our empire size and the land's workshop potential. Blub, you were pretty convincing, and now I'm sure that you are right. It's clear that the loss of the wonders is not significant. Communism tech cost is significant, the nerfed maintenance, the absence of foreign trade, and the limited game time.

EDIT: I forgot that we won't lose the specs in the communism variant until we do the switch. Well,
it's about 780 beakers difference, again not significant.

EDIT 2: Please forget this post. It's missing some very important things, mainly workshop income.

 

[BLubmuz]

Comparison:

SP Merc SP /\ M.
beakers: -4095 6570 -10665
food: 3220 0 3220
gold: 11252 32 11230
hammers: 13160 32 13128
commerce: 0 128 -128
GreatPersons: 1 1 =

My opinion:
- we lost 6570b+4095, but they are more than compensated by the gold saved.
- if the hammers and food can be converterd to beakers, by specialists or by building W or R, we can be on net and important gain.

The maintenance broken in F2, but in BtS in the end is an important thing and also inflation plays an important role, which yesterday i did not considered.

Thanks to Folket and his telegraphics posts i think that now we possess all the correct elements to take a decision.

 

[BLubmuz]

Here is my comparison: (...)

Now, one of us is making mistakes.

- you proposed the thing and now you post a comparison where you basically say: OK, i was wrong, forget it
- your comparison is not much different from the one i posted yesterday, where i came to same conclusion
- but i made a new one today, probably very accurate if we let aside some assumption and some factors calculated on average and this seems to demonstrate that your starting idea was good
- i'm sure he data i considered are accurate, did i missed or miscalculated something?

Who's making mistakes?

Folket, can you please find the time to read that bunch of numbers and tell something?

UT, are you dead?

 

[Shaandore]

Now, one of us is making mistakes.

- you proposed the thing and now you post a comparison where you basically say: OK, i was wrong, forget it
- your comparison is not much different from the one i posted yesterday, where i came to same conclusion
The main difference is food taken into account. Without food it's pretty simple, Merc has better gain per turn AND no extra tech, so Communism couldn't beat it even in the long run.
- but i made a new one today, probably very accurate if we let aside some assumption and some factors calculated on average and this seems to demonstrate that your starting idea was good
- i'm sure he data i considered are accurate, did i missed or miscalculated something?

Who's making mistakes?
Both of us It's a very complex game, it' very natural to forget/miscalculate a cople of things.

Folket, can you please find the time to read that bunch of numbers and tell something?

UT, are you dead?

When counting the hammers, you gave too much credit to SP. Half of the workshops are present even in the Merc variant. OTOH I forgot to take into account the extra income from changing to workshops. When changing 3F to 2F3H we gain 1.5 hammers, or 1 food if we agree to use my assumption 1.5hammer=1food. So it is an extra ~40*1.5=60 unit gain per turn in communism, which means that the two plans are even after 43 turns. So I would like to revoke my previous statement and say that communism is better.

(Note that we also have GAs, which make workshops even stronger, and I calculated with 3 hammer workshops, but they will give 4 hammers because of Caste.)

I'll repost the previous one and try to correct the mistakes.

 

[Shaandore]

Second try.

I assumed 1gold=1beaker=1hammer, and 1 food=1.5 hammer. Why, because on average we have ~1.25 muliplier on each of gold, beaker and hammer. I have already stated why food is stronger than these. Naturally, beakers are a bit weaker since we have better multipliers, so this assumption helps Merc in the comparison. Food's worth is always questionable, but let's try it like this for now.

For simplicity's sake, I'll also assume that the two routes don't differ in the next 8 turns, so I'll only count the gains 8 turns from now. Later the 8 turns will be added to the even out time.

Communism, assuming 80 workshops on average:
+ ~100 gpt immediate gain (dist maintenance and cheaper civic). This is not raw gold, so divide by 1.25!
+ 40 fpt+40 hpt on workshops we already have
+ ~50 hpt from 10% bonus again, not raw hammers, divide by 1.25!
+ ~40 farms are rebuilt to workshops. Let's assume Caste 8 turns from now, and 2 more long golden ages. Let's say that the goldan age hammer bonus evens out the slavery bonus when running Merc. So our workshops give us 2F4H on average instead of 3H or a bonus of 2.5H from 8 turns from now.
- 4095/1.2 non-raw beakers. Divide by 1.25
- 12 raw bpt (on average, since we can't switch to Rep for a while) for let's say 25 turns (Great library obsoletes earlier)
- Parthenon: we lose 2/3 of a Gperson's GPP
- ToA, GLib GPP loss: another 1/3 of a Great Person
+ we get a Gspy, so let's say it's even on GPP front.

Sum: 100/1.25+40*1.5+40+50/1.25+40*2.5=320 unit per turn
but need to pay for tech cost: 4095/1.2/1.25+12*25=3030


So T turns from now we have at least 320*T-3030

Merc: assuming 30 cities on average, and Rep from 8 turns from now:
6*30 raw beakers every turn after switching itno rep 8 turns from now


6*30*T=T*180

A quick calculation shows that we would need 3030/(320-180)+8~=30 turns to even out.

Conclusion:
- Communism looks better. Even if we take less workshops and less optimistic maintenance gains/food multiplier, the per-turn gain will still be greater than 280. So taking this lower amount we still arrive at 31+8 turns of even out time, which is still LESS than the number of turns remaining.
- I'll always forget some important variable, but let's hope it's close to accurate now.

EDIT: one more mistake corrected

EDIT 2:Still multiple mistakes, working on it. Don't look!!!

EDIT 3: done for now.

 

[unclethrill]

UT, are you dead?

Died about 3 days ago!

LOL

Been busy with RL. I've kept up with the discussion but those number calculations are beyond my level of interest in playing CIV.

My thought is that we need to tech to our end technology as fast as possible with as few deviations as possible. I don't think another deadend tech is useful. Lib was worth it since we were able to get steel from it but we are on the home stretch. No deviations now, no extra builds, no extra anything.

 

[Shaandore]

@UT: for now I'm not editing, please take a look at my previous post.

To sum it up, after 30-40 turns, communism will bring us 100-140 extra gpt each turn. You will need to find a serious mistake to convince me that it's not worth researching.

It is also clear thatin order to make Communism good, we will need a lot of workshops. The more we build, the better it will be.

 

[BLubmuz]

Second try.
Conclusion:
- Communism looks better. Even if we take less workshops and less optimistic maintenance gains/food multiplier, the per-turn gain will still be greater than 300. So taking this lower amount we still arrive at 60+8 turns of even out time, which is IMO roughly the number of turns remaining.
- I'll always forget some important variable, but let's hope it's accurate now.:lol

You're a mathematician after all, i am a financial controller well used to produce careful cost/benefits reports The problem is that in RL i know well the variants, but in this darn game they are far more difficult to take in account.

OK, so we go for Communism.(can you hear the notes of the Internationale?)

New research plan
1) don't start researching SM, but finish RP. Slowly, accumulating some gold.
Did i become crazy? no, see:
2) we decided to not revolt to SP until the end of the GAge, 20 turns from now.
3) we want to maximize the benefits of our WWs, so why obsolete them before we need to?
4) RP is 2632b, so @930bpt*40% is 7 turns. Maybe you can get it in 6 with some conquest gold, then you start SM.
5) we research it @0% until we see that the GS can bulb some less beakers than the remainder
6) at that point we're in GAge and if we push the research we can finish Commu in 3-4 turns

In this way we delay the obsolescence of our WWs, but not the turn when we start to run SP. In the meantime our workers can convert some farm to WS and/or watermills. Cottages will stay untouched, like resources and farms to chain irrigation.

The rest of your PPP is OK, so you can start when you like.

 

[BLubmuz]

Been busy with RL. I've kept up with the discussion but those number calculations are beyond my level of interest in playing CIV. Usually i agree, but this time i was catched by my passion for numbers

My thought is that we need to tech to our end technology as fast as possible with as few deviations as possible. I don't think another deadend tech is useful. Lib was worth it since we were able to get steel from it but we are on the home stretch. No deviations now, no extra builds, no extra anything.

If a deviation can give us a faster finish, i presume you agree to deviate

My numbers seem to say so, thus i presume you can agree.