SGOTM 20 - Misfit Gypsy Nuts

[adrianj]

I see you've suggested a city site down there Ron. I suggest we put it 1SE of that location. Being able to work the copper is a better tile long term than settling on top of it. It will also claim silver+sheep in the first ring, meaning we don't need a border pop to work them.

Tech path: regarding Mysticism. Are we still undecided whether to go for Oracle or a rush? I still strongly favour a rush, preferably with horse archers. Tech path for that could be Pottery > HBR > Hunting > Archery.

Was there any activity amongst the AI? Do we have visibility of any of the newly settled cities?

 

[Ronnie1]

I had actually placed the dotmap before the discovery of copper. Obviously we have lots of options to split up all those resources!

Was there any activity amongst the AI? Do we have visibility of any of the newly settled cities?

Only what was in the log. No new visibility.

Tech path: regarding Mysticism. Are we still undecided whether to go for Oracle or a rush? I still strongly favour a rush, preferably with horse archers. Tech path for that could be Pottery > HBR > Hunting > Archery.

Myst is simply a place holder.

 

[Ronnie1]

From sleepless on 7/28

Apologies for not being more active but RL has given me a real kick up the @@@@. I'm not going to be around for another couple of weeks or so. Should be ok after that though

 

[adrianj]

From sleepless on 7/28
"Apologies for not being more active but RL has given me a real kick up the @@@@. I'm not going to be around for another couple of weeks or so. Should be ok after that though"

Ah, good point.
In that case, McArine, you're up!

The roster order is:

1. Haphazard1
2. da_Vinci
3. nocho
4. Ronnie1 Just Played
5. McArine Up Now!
6. Sleepless On Deck

Advising:
Ororo, adrianj

 

[haphazard1]

Very nice find on the copper, Ronnie1!

Interesting that there are actually 2 copper tiles there. We may want another city in this region later. But for now I like adrianj's suggestion of SE of the copper. It still gets all 5 resources (copper, silver, sheep, 2 deer) as on the copper tile, while being able to work the copper and having silver and sheep in first ring. Plus we don't have Hunting tech yet to work the deer anyway. It will be an excellent city.

When do we want to revolt to slavery? Alternate way of asking the same question would be, when do we want to whip something?

On next tech, I see three possibilities:

- Mysticism allows monuments for popping borders, and starts us towards the Oracle
- Pottery allows our cheap expansive granaries and cottages, plus heading towards Writing
- HBR starts us towards HA rush at max speed, relying on two silver tiles for research rather than cottages

I think we can do without Mysticism if we are planning an HA rush -- we have sites with all key resources in the first ring. So Myticism would be to go for the Oracle, which would mean no early rush. We do have more and better land (Pollux IS a generous god!) than we originally thought, so we should consider if an Oracle attempt is worthwhile.

Pottery gets our cheap granaries plus cottages to help support the research to HBR. But it also delays the HA techs a bit. So would adding Pottery speed up or delay our push for HAs? Granaries are cheap and greatly boost growth and whipping effectiveness, but they would be one more thing to build. Would we be better off relying on the two silver tiles for research, and building barracks (and then stables) while we push through the HA techs?

 

[McArine]

I wont be able to play from tomorrow afternoon, and until Monday the 17th. So please skip me.

My vote goes for direct path to HA rush. The sooner we do it, the more effective it will be. With the extra land we claim, we're going to soon outrun the other AI in tech pace.

 

[nocho]

I think pottery is a must, it'll pay back very soon with expansive granaries. I'd squeeze in myst too, don't want to wait for border pops until after a rush... With likely 2 silvers shouldn't be too problematic.

Slavery switch when next settler is on the move? Although 1-pop whips of granaries might be needed earlier than that even.

 

[Ronnie1]

I think we should revolt next turn after the worker is complete. This is the smallest these two cities will ever be, and it gives the worker a chance to begin a task.

HBR "says" 22 turns right now, but that will get better with population. Hopefully we can manage all 3 techs in about 20 turns. Inserting Pottery adds 6 turns, inserting Mysticism adds 5 more. It is turn 38 now, if we want to have a significant number of HA's by T70, I don't see how we have time to get off the HA beeline of HBR > Hunting > Archery.

But Pottery for Granaries with our trait is a must! So we have to research Pottery next imo

I think we have to be content with a bit later HA rush, however, maybe we use a chariot or 2 to steal some workers and pillage Suli's ground making the delay not so terrible. If we can delay his development even a bit, and try to make sure he doesn't get access to metals, HA's are viable for quite a while.

 

[haphazard1]

If McArine and Sleepless are both unavailable, I guess that means it is back around to me? OK, I will start thinking.

I agree with nocho that revolting to slavery after the worker finishes is probably best. Might as well get it over with. The other option would be to delay until the next settler is walking, but both our cities should be larger then so we would lose more.

On tech I think we should take the extra turns for Pottery. Since we can 1-pop whip our cheap expansive granaries, I think the tech will prove well worth having. But I think we should skip Mysticism until later -- none of our planned three cities needs a border pop to be useful. And I don't think we can fit in monuments on our HA rush timeline. Fitting in a granary will be tough enough, but should pay off with faster growth.

I will take a closer look at the save and put together a draft PPP, hopefully sometime in the next 6-8 hours.

 

[nocho]

(....) but both our cities should be larger then so we would lose more.

As a nice sideshow excercise I would challenge you to prove this assertion, because I think it's not true. At least from a yield perspective. Although it feels like you lose more by having the anarchy when you're bigger, it really doesn't make a difference. If you look at a fixed number of turns, you'll spend the same number of turns being size 2 and producing, being size 3 and producing and being size 4 and producing etc, whether you revolt at size 2 or 3... The sensation of losing a "productive size-3 turn" is compensated by the fact that if you revolt at size 2, you grow to size 3 a turn later.

All this to say that size isn't the essential consideration for when to revolt, timing is. Just after producing a worker or settler usually is good timing. I'd assume that the first thing we'll want to whip is a granary in wheat city, so no real need to revolt until then. However, likely next settler will come a bit later than our potential granary whip (?), so we'll have to judge what's more optimal. If that settler indeed is much later than when we want to whip the granary, only then we might as well revolt immediately after worker is done, otherwise I'd wait for next settler walking. In any case, it's all still minor considerations as compared to big decisions like if and when to rush and with what unit etc.

 

[haphazard1]

nocho, you may be right on the overall effects due to delay of growth. But as long as we have workers improving more tiles that will be worked with the next growth, then revolting now and letting the workers "catch up" during the anarchy is likely to make revolting sooner pay off. At the very least I think we break even, in which case sooner is still better in case we need to make another revolt later. (Not likely we will have another civic change available this soon, but the principle is still true.)

In our specific case we are certainly going to want to whip the granary in our horse farm city within the next 2-3 turns -- much sooner than we will have another settler ready to walk. So I think revolting after the worker finishes is the best choice.

 

[nocho]

^ We'll first have to tech pottery though. If that's 6 turns plus a turn to avoid whip penalty without invested hammers, next settler would be close, assuming settler next in cap and at least 1 forest (silver) chopped.

 

[Ronnie1]

Although it feels like you lose more by having the anarchy when you're bigger, it really doesn't make a difference. If you look at a fixed number of turns,you'll spend the same number of turns being size 2 and producing, being size 3 and producing and being size 4 and producing etc, whether you revolt at size 2 or 3.

I also believe it is not the "number" of turns at a certain size that needs to be measured, but the "size" of the turn given up. I think if you look at extreme cases it is easier to see the difference I believe.

Compare revolting a civ with a total pop of "4" -vs- say total pop of "44" or "144". If you had to give up only 1 turn which would you pick?

 

[haphazard1]

OK, looked over the save. Draft PPP for discussion:

Goals

- Research Pottery for cheap granaries, then shift to HBR for HA rush path
- Settler third city SE of the copper (copper/silver/sheep site)
- Continue exploration

Stopping conditions

- Settle our third city
- Any AI DOW or goes WHEOOHRN
- Meet remaining two AIs (allows hidden objective to be revealed)
- Barb attack on our cities
- Religion spreads to us
- Unexpected issues

Research

Use binary research for Pottery, followed by HBR

City Builds

- Silver Lining will complete worker (1 turn), then start another settler (9 turns, but should be sped up by a chop). Follow with another worker (should also be sped up by a chop).
- Horse Farm will continue building barracks until Pottery finishes. Then put 1 turn into a granary, followed by whipping the following turn. Then resume barracks.

Worker Actions

- Alex finishes wheat farm at Horse Farm, then pasture the horses and road them. Then mine the grass hill.
- Billy (once completed by Silver Lining) will move to the forested sheep tile and chop the forest. Then pasture the sheep. After move to the silver tile and chop -> mine it.

Unit Actions

- Warrior 0 (our starting warrior) explores around the marble and eastward.
- Warrior 1 explores southwest towards the barb city, but loops back in time to meet the settler and cover it while founding the copper city.
- Warrior 2 explores northwest past the mountains, towards Catherine, then west-ish.
- Scout continues cautiously exploring east.
- Archer 0 remains fortified in Horse Farm.

Religion

Don't have any yet.

Civics

Revolt to Slavery after Silver Lining completes worker Billy.

Espionage

Continue all points on Suleiman.

Questions and Open Issues

- Do we want to continue all EP on Suleiman?
- When will barbs enter our borders? Silver Lining is empty. (This is another reason to revolt to Slavery quickly, so we can emergency whip if absolutely necessary.)
- Do we want to build the settler for the third city immediately? Maybe we should build a third worker and have it start roading towards the planned city site? Maybe cover it with warrior 1?
- Do we want to continue scouting with all warriors? Or bring one of them back to garrison the capital?

Other thoughts, concerns, things I have forgotten to include?

 

[Ronnie1]

We want a chariot out of HF as soon as we can get one. We need to explore around Suli and possibly be in position to steal a worker and pillage his resources. Not sure we need the Granary before the Chariot.

Unit Actions

- Warrior 0 (our starting warrior) explores around the marble and eastward.
- Warrior 1 explores southwest towards the barb city, but loops back in time to meet the settler and cover it while founding the copper city.
- Warrior 2 explores northwest past the mountains, towards Catherine, then west-ish.
- Scout continues cautiously exploring east.
- Archer 0 remains fortified in Horse Farm.

W0 still has bear and lion to his SE. Please don't move him to any tile where you can not see the adjacent tile.

I have scout circling NW around the French. I was hoping to see the size of the water body in the center. I am guessing that we may need Astro to get to some/most/all Religions. I think scouting this map is still a "critical path" for our immediate future. 70 Temples required, and we currently have no idea how to access any of the religions.

I would use W1 to fogbust the C3 site.

Questions and Open Issues

- Do we want to continue all EP on Suleiman?
- When will barbs enter our borders? Silver Lining is empty. (This is another reason to revolt to Slavery quickly, so we can emergency whip if absolutely necessary.)
- Do we want to build the settler for the third city immediately? Maybe we should build a third worker and have it start roading towards the planned city site? Maybe cover it with warrior 1?
- Do we want to continue scouting with all warriors? Or bring one of them back to garrison the capital?

SL builds need to be considered carefully imo. It will take 5 turns to grow to size 4 when we want to. There will be no overflow from the current worker. Another worker is 5 turns, but a chop for 24 reduces that to 3. Ideally we squeeze Granary in here ASAP, maybe even whip down to size 2 if the timing on the food bar is good.

Speaking out loud now. Food bar timing with Granary whips is one place where we can be a bit diligent and gain a bit of an advantage. In the perfect scenario, the Food bar is exactly 1/2 full the turn the Granary completes. For instance,

Then put 1 turn into a granary, followed by whipping the following turn.

, whipping after 1 turn may not be the best option if the food bar is empty.

Back to SL...we want to grow it onto the 4 power tiles for sure. Sooner or later we need to insert a build that allows growth and timing that is important imo.

 

[haphazard1]

Ronnie1, I am not clear on what you are saying about timing of the granary builds/whips. If the food bar is more than half full, you will not end up with the "full" benefit of the granary on the next growth. But I am not aware of any issues if the food bar is less than half full.

I suppose you could want to wait so as to produce more overflow. But I am not seeing why you would not want to whip the granary ASAP if the food bar was empty. Why not get the whip done and start working down the unhappiness turn counter?

For growing SL I don't think this will be an issue during my turn set, since we want another settler plus another worker (#3). But we can grow while building a granary (if the timing would be right), or by building a barracks. If we want the HA rush, we need to get the barracks built at some point anyway. Or we could always build another warrior if we do not plan to bring one back to the capital.

 

[Ronnie1]

I can see a few more warriors in our future as MP's for sure.

But I am not aware of any issues if the food bar is less than half full.

We are making 2* while building the granary also, why are you in a hurry to whip it? The benefit shows up on the following growth as you noted. There is no benefit except whip anger wearing off sooner to whipping immediately. But we do get 2* for those few turns if we wait, and it costs us virtually nothing.

I think another worker before another settler the more I think about it. We could even grow to size 4, 2 pop whip the settler with near max overflow and complete a Granary at size 2 in 1 turn.

 

[adrianj]

Some more shuffling:

The roster order is:

1. da_Vinci
2. nocho
3. Ronnie1 Just Played
4. Haphazard1 Up Now!
5. McArine On Deck
6. Sleepless

Advising:
Ororo, adrianj

 

[da_Vinci]

I also believe it is not the "number" of turns at a certain size that needs to be measured, but the "size" of the turn given up. I think if you look at extreme cases it is easier to see the difference I believe.

Compare revolting a civ with a total pop of "4" -vs- say total pop of "44" or "144". If you had to give up only 1 turn which would you pick?

I think the revolt logic is not in terms of "give up", it is in terms of "delay"

Imagine this series: Turn 0 1 2 3 4 5

Imagine this series: Turn 0 1 2 R 3 4 where there is a revolt turn between 2 and 3.

You don't loose turn 3 by revolting, you time shift it. Wandering to chose a settling site has the same effect, you need to find better land to make it worthwhile.

In theory the sequence 0 1 2 3 4 R 5 gets you to the same place as the 2-3 revolt timing ... with one exception:

Production of a worker or a settler completing before the revolt can move/build, or move/settle during the stalled revolt turn. Same for a military unit that is key for repelling a barb ... getting it out before the revolt gains it movement time.

So delaying a revolt only makes sense if there is a key unit build to complete that can use the revolt turn for useful action. I think ... (but this is da_Vinci, so I could be wrong ... )

Edit: Or maybe delaying a revolt makes sense up until the very last minute that you need the new civic (need to whip for a slavery revolt), because the longer you wait, the more units are out one tempo ahead in their actions (see ... I was wrong, or this one is wrong.)

dV

 

[nocho]

@dV: exactly!

To me it seems the granary whip pretty much coincides in time with settler ready (given the chop), so I'd really recommend postponing the revolt. We'll settle next city a turn earlier thanks to it.

Haven't seen the save yet though, so don't know the unit situation and defensive needs. But if we have 3 warriors now (and the archer), 2 of those warriors should be around SL and the new city site respectively.