SGOTM8 - klarius

[Megalou]

If klarius is right I am in awe over Wacken's scientific progress - but how come we are still ahead of them in culture if they've outresearched us so utterly?

So how about the high risk option (originally proposed by Megalou ) - no research to AF, try to get a city everywhere by diplomacy.

How about it? I had a look at the biggest obstacles. The way I see it, we'd need three wars with Vikings. The first one would require massive bombing of Århus or Oslo. We would need to bomb one of them down to size 1-2, apart from doing the gifting trick before this war. Of course, we'd need an airstrip or town nearby (see map.) If we get Nicomedia in a peace treaty and hurry an airport, we would be able to bomb Århus from there.

Once we have Oslo or Århus, we could prepare for the second war, a massive ROP rape plus bombing of Odense down to size 1. This looks messy, but on the other hand, helicopters are not much better in this situation.

The third war would come after we have claimed Odense in a peace treaty. If we get that far, it should be the last war of all.

With helicopters, the best thing to do would perhaps be to sign ROP, send many units from where the barb camp is now (edit: or from Nicomedia) to the hill SE of Århus and eventually do a ROP rape. But you would also need to bomb Odense down to size 1-2 to get it in a peace treaty, or send helicopters from where the black dot is. It is actually more effective to have an air strip on the continent for quick transport of multiple troops (if we can get one.)

The hardest part of going without Advanced Flight is obviously the small islands. Aurelianorum is a prime example, although it can be bombed down to size 1. And Chinan would have to hurry a great number of troops to be on the safe side.

One advantage of going without Advanced Flight is that Rome won't have infantries. On the other hand we won't have tanks.

All in all, stopping research after Flight is fine with me.

 

[Megalou]

To pull this off, we need skilled and lucky diplomacy and a world war ASAP. Wars to last only until the enemies talk, brokem alliances,...

I don't see the need for a World War. Please explain.

 

[Ronald]

I don't really believe in a strategy without advanced flight, but it is a team play and if you think we should try it, I will do my best to make it work.

The biggest problem I see is not scandinavia. With massive bombing we should be able to get a foothold and in a fake peace treaty Odense.
The one where we need pure luck and no skills is Tientsin. Since it is the capitel we won'y get it even at size 1. We need to relay on that some other civ captures Tientsin (who and why?) and that we will get it from them.
Any thoughts?

 

[klarius]

The one where we need pure luck and no skills is Tientsin. Since it is the capitel we won'y get it even at size 1. We need to relay on that some other civ captures Tientsin (who and why?) and that we will get it from them.
Any thoughts?

Rome, by an alliance that has to start in the next few turns to give them enough time. But that means Rome can't be our target for quite some time. And Tientsin has to be the only Chinese city, so they concentrate their effort.
Japan could help also a bit, if anything is left of them.

@Megalou
Bombers have an operating range of 10 tiles (not like the puny 6 of helicopters). We can bomb Odense and Oslo from New Orleans. Birka and Copenhagen can be reached from Chicago if necessary. Aarhus is in the range of Caesaraugusta.
You don't need an airport to do a bomb run, a city is enough. Or you can base bombers on airfields.

But over all looking on it at daylight, I'm not really that optimistic. Not because of any single island, but because of the number of islands we have to get in total (and there are still some which may be settled).

 

[Megalou]

The biggest problem I see is not scandinavia.
The one where we need pure luck and no skills is Tientsin. Since it is the capitel we won'y get it even at size 1. We need to relay on that some other civ captures Tientsin (who and why?) and that we will get it from them.
Any thoughts?

I can only agree. I forgot about Tientsin, as well as the fact that we can bomb Scandinavia from our own shores. No, I don't think that anyone will help us with the Chinese capital. The AI fighting skills are too ineffectual. We need Advanced Flight. But we should not be lazy after Flight. If it's true that Wacken reached Advanced flight in 950 AD and we can't beat them despite our brilliant gifting tactics, then the more credit to them.

 

[Ronald]

We don't know anything about Wacken. I still believe they don't have advanced flight yet, so we do have a fighting chance to win, if they have congratulations to them.
Second place is not too bad and don't forget CDZ we should at least try to beat them.

 

[Northern Pike]

850 AD, end of turn

 

[Northern Pike]

I should mention that I played most of this round before the recent discussion of radical strategic options.


780 (0): I change some of our builds as discussed, switching Washington to a coal plant, which it completes immediately.

We gift Yokohama to the Chinese.

The Romans found Eboracum on our continent's long-ignored western island.

Three Japanese AC make themselves vulnerable.


790 (1): Electricity due in one turn, but we can't cut the science rate.

A spearman in Matsuyama retreats one cav before the second defeats it, so we don't take the town (1-0).

We destroy three Japanese AC near Yokohama (4-0).

Electricity --> Scientific Method, due in four turns at 80% science.

New York factory --> worker (at size twelve with full food box), then coal plant (needed to reach 40 spt).


800 (2): We defeat a rushed spearman in Matsuyama, but there's still an archer there (5-0).

I begin merging workers into Detroit. I know there are completing claims on our workers, but we're building more all the time, and to have one of our few high-shield cities underdeveloped is horrible.

We wipe out the barb camp in the northwest, killing two warriors (7-0).

On the Japanese front we eliminate three archers and a longbowman (11-0).


810 (3): The Romans have Nationalism, but the monopoly price (three techs) is prohibitive.

The archer now garrisoning Matsuyama by itself retreats a cav unit, so we still don't take the city.

We defeat two longbowmen and an archer around Kyoto (14-0). This is a little slow, but I'm not inclined to take chances when we're trying to do a lot with not many units.

I let Atlanta complete a cav unit--somewhat reluctantly, but given our assumptions about how much time is left in the game, a factory here doesn't make sense.

Pollution strikes Washington.


820 (4): We found West Point southwest of Delphi.

We take Kyoto, held by three spearmen, without loss, capturing four workers (17-0). We raze the town for another five workers, destroying the Oracle.

Miami factory --> coal plant.


830 (5): SciMeth due in one turn, but we can't cut the science rate.

Civ III spontaneously closes, and I lose a lot of micromanagement and worker movement.

We finally defeat the heroic archer, and Matsuyama is ours (18-0). We capture a worker.

SciMeth --> Refining, due in five turns at 100% research.

Houston factory --> cavalry.


840 (6): I get St. Louis up to 12 spt (later 15 spt) after corruption with mining operations, so its production should help us before the end.

We take Izumo, held by two spearmen (20-0).

We cut down a Japanese longbowman near the ruins of Kyoto (21-0).

The last Japanese AC--if our count is correct--lands next to Izumo from a galley.

Love breaks out all over our empire, because the capture of Izumo gave us our ninth luxury.

Boston and Seattle factory --> cavalry.


850 (7): We found Orrville in the gap created by the razing of Kyoto.

We attack the Japanese AC with an elite cav, win the first three rounds, and then lose five in a row. Our next attack on the AC succeeds, and that cav promotes to elite (22-1).

Six elite victories this round didn't produce a Great Leader.

 

[Northern Pike]

We have seven cavalry units in position to attack Tokyo or Nagasaki, depending on Megalou's choice, next turn. The Japanese campaign hasn't gone quickly so far, but we've disposed of their non-garrison units while losing almost nothing, and I don't see any reason why we shouldn't take all four of their remaining mainland cities.

There shouldn't be any Japanese AC left, according to our count.

We're on track to discover Refining in four turns and build ToE in five, so we should get Combustion and Flight from ToE in 900 AD as planned. The main possible complication is that two luxuries we're getting from the Romans will run out in two turns, when neither using the lux slider (since we're at 100% science) nor giving the Romans more techs (for obvious reasons) will be an option. So Megalou may have the treat of micromanaging all our cities so that they'll keep orderly with seven luxuries.

I have a fair number of our corrupt cities set to cav builds. This is less because I expect them all to produce cav for us than to identify towns which should be left in peace to support specialists, rather than being drained for settlers and workers. A case could be made that some of these towns should be set to wealth, and if you want to do that I won't object.

It's hard to know whether we should build coal plants in Boston and Seattle. The game will probably last long enough that our ability to build cav in those towns in three turns instead of four, which would be the result, would justify the plants mathematically. But the break-even point would be in thirty-two turns, and we need to get a lot done in that time, plus which we'll get the effect of plants at some point by mobilizing. So I've set the two cities to cav builds, but feel free to switch to coal plants if you're certain that's better.

We're sending the Vikings dyes for 1 gpt. I assumed that this deal was a precaution against a Berserker sneak attack, which would still be bad, and so didn't cancel it. But we shouldn't let the arrangement last beyond its usefulness.

One of Seattle's mountain tiles isn't railed, though given Seattle's present spt and build it makes no difference.

 

[Northern Pike]

The Japanese front:

 

[Northern Pike]

Well, the domination limit is 1476 according to CivAssist. I would expect that the territory graph goes flat around this value before anybody wins, but that part may only be 5-10 turns and not visible due to the hiding of the last save. Still I expect that it takes more than 10 turns from territory below 1000 to conquest.

We'll discover Advanced Flight right around 1200 AD, and if we prepare and pre-build carefully, we might be able to win within a few turns after that. Going by Klarius's assumptions above, that could give us a fair chance of victory. I think it's a better bet than hoping an AI civ will deal with Tientsin for us, anyway. The miniature amphibious landings the AI favours might take some cities, but not a capital.

 

[Ronald]

Very nice turns Northern Pike.
I agree with Boston and Seattle. we need some cavs very soon to take out Rome.
One small remark: Why did you send a warrior to the North? I liked the barbs there for the elite training and the 25g.

 

[Ronald]

I did some calculation about research times. We can now make 950 beakers per turn if we set every specialist to a scientist. If the tech costs in CivAssist are correct we can resaerch Replacable parts in 4, Atomic Theory in 6, Electronics in 5, Mass Production in 4, Motorized transport in 4 and Advanced flight in 5.
That is in 1180 AD.

We can start our helicopters in 1190, build airfield and transport units to Scandinavia in 1200.
Scandinavia can be conquered in 3 turns. These 3 turns should also be enough to clear the small remaining islands. So we could finish in 1230 AD.

I don't know how many turns are not displayed in the sgotm graph, but if it is ten, Wacken could have finished in 1260 AD. This date we can beat.

 

[klarius]

Ronald, I think that's a bit optimistic . It assumes the Vikings being the only problem at that time. I count 7 settled islands besides the Vikings where we have no foothold up to now. Three more islands could still be settled.
Also full steam research will not be possible, when we attack the Romans. They are the only ones who could give us some gold to finance deficit research.
Helicopters have a range of only six tiles, so one has to get them first to the appropriate cities/airfields.
Any island where we cannot build city and airfield will be very difficult. Cavalry and tanks cannot be transported by helicopter, so infantry will have to do the job after bombing.

I also don't see that we are in the shape to attack Rome when we get flight. We share a lot islands with them and we would need units everywhere. We will not have enough by then. I would rather still sell them technology (but not electricity) currently, to drain their gold. War with the others (England first, Vikings when we have a few bombers to sink ships, Greece when deals run out) to get more islands.
And I still haven't given up the idea Rome could destroy China if we ally them. Rome has lots of spare units for sure, they will not come with the usual one archer invasion force.
If we should do an alliance with Rome eventually, please do that as a seperate deal giving a few gpt if necessary. Don't add it to any big deals receiving gpt.

 

[Ronald]

klarius, I think that's a bit too pessimistic

Our gpt deal with Rome ends in 950. By then we should be able to have about 25 cavs to mainland Rome and another 5 to the 2 shared islands. We should even think to buy Nationalism with a few techs for mobilization.
We also have infantry available at that time and a few bomber to get rid of ships.
That should be enough for Rome.

Japan and England will be history any time we want. At war, we should be able to get either Londinium and/or Liverpool to take care of that island. We don't need to rush any units besides a worker to build an airfield.

This stage should be fnished easily before 1100AD.

So after that we have time enough to prepare for the final assault with advanced flight

By 1180AD I think we have to deal only with Scandinavia, the Greek island with Mycanae and Herakleia, the Roman island of Eburacum and the island of Aurelianorum. If we bomb Argos and Dover to size 1, we probably get them in a peace treaty (gifting Greece and England a few cities before the war could help). Worst case two more.
For Scandinavia we need a ROP and 2 helis. One with a settler, a worker at the main land. Next turn found city, build airfield and airlift units to Scandinavia. The other with infantry to the small island with Odense.
The other islands need 1 heli with settler, worker and infantry, if we are afraid one more heli with additional infantry.

 

[Megalou]

I've come, seen and shall conquer.

I will probably need the full 48 hours because of work out of town tomorrow. Is it 5 turns then?

Eh, Theory of Evolution is one turn late. That would mean a turn of no research, which we do not want. It will be a bit messy to speed it up to 4 turns, some starving in Washington, and with bad pollution I may have to set up some major starving (changing irrigated grass to mined plains and the like.)

Other than that you did a heck of a job, NP! Those fighting results in Japan are the mark of a champ. 22-1!

 

[Megalou]

As for battle in Japan:

I think I will attack Nagasaki. The redlined elite cav in Caesaraugusta is not quite in position to attack Kyoto and I would have wanted to have him as a backup, Kyoto being on a hill.

 

[Ronald]

I've come, seen and shall conquer.

Eh, Theory of Evolution is one turn late. That would mean a turn of no research, which we do not want. It will be a bit messy to speed it up to 4 turns, some starving in Washington, and with bad pollution I may have to set up some major starving (changing irrigated grass to mined plains and the like.)

ToE can be easily speed up to 4 turns. You need the lambs from Boston, the mined hill and the mined plains from New York - done (starving just 1 food per turn)

On another thought: We want to research full speed, that means we will ometimes run a small deficit per turn. So we should not rush any units if not absolutely necessary

 

[Northern Pike]

One small remark: Why did you send a warrior to the North? I liked the barbs there for the elite training and the 25g.

You're right. I was just instinctively keeping everything orderly. We could even withdraw the southeastern warrior as well as the northwestern, to let barbs breed in two places.

Megalou, I've always been reluctant to let ToE complete on the very turn when a tech is discovered, because if anything goes wrong half the benefit of ToE is lost. But if you're more confident about the mechanics of the matter, by all means speed ToE up a turn.

Nagasaki before Tokyo looks fine to me.

 

[Megalou]

Yes, I am confident about the mechanics, as my original observation should clearly suggest.