Which is generally more efficient, producing gold(50 turn tech) and stealing technology or max research?
Since nobody came up with any figures, I thought I'd do some research myself.
The cost for setting up a careful theft is given in a formula:
cost = distance * level + base * tech * techrate / 100, where
base = 10 for players in all non-modded games apparently...
techrate = 160, 200, 240, 320 or 400 (mapsize)
tech = the variable for each technology
distance = #tiles between their city and yours
level = 1,2 or 3, for towns, cities, metros resp.
The factor (distance * level) is negligable for advanced techs. We now have:
cost = tech * techrate / 10
The operation may fail so it may take a few tries. The odds are 0.75*0.80 = 0.60 for a regular spy. Let's factor this into the equation:
C = tech * techrate / 10 / 0.6 =
C = tech * techrate / 6
I found a formula for research on the forum:
B = [ techrate * [10*tech * (1 - N/ [CL*1.75]) ]/(AICF * 10) ], where
[] = round down
AICF = AI cost factor. Let's assume the least favourable value of 6 (for diety level)
N = number of civs on the diplomacy screen that have discovered the tech.
CL = number of civs left in the game
The player's civ doesn't have the tech while AI will easily trade among AI on diety: (1 - N/[CL*1.75]) = 1 - 6/12 = 0.5
Now we know how many beakers:
B = techrate * [10 * tech * 0.5] / (6 * 10) =
B = techrate * tech / 12
Now we can finally compare research to espionage (diety level, any mapsize):
C / B = tech * techrate / 6 / (tech * techrate / 12) = 2.
Espionage actually cost double compared to doing our own research. Unexpected. Probably because I factored in the chance of spy failure.