starlifter
Deity
- Joined
- Jun 17, 2001
- Messages
- 4,210
by Slowthinker:
By lafayette:
The Capital difference with Water Poisoning is something I had not considered. Now that I see your numbers above, Capital Nuking makes the top of my nuke test list for one day looking into Nuking odds.
About #1, yup, that one is exact, due to the game algorithm for computing the gold. Did you find any difference due to Walls? I'd never noticed or considered that one, but someone on ST's site said his son had noticed it. The problem with just noticing stuff in a game (and not testing for it like you have) is that one's "perception" of odds in the heat of battle can often greatly affected.
A thing I've noticed, and am 100% convinced about (but have not tested for the exact numbers, soooo) is that going after City Walls with a diplomat will result in very low odds of actaully getting those walls. That is, if there are 4 improvements, a Dip will not have a true 1 in 4 chance of nailing the walls (or a 1 in 5 if you consider production). Instead, the odds are reduced (maybe by a factor of 2 or 3) for Walls (e.g., making the odds more like 1 in 8 or 1 in 12, using the 1st example above). These odds are jjust a hypothesis to point me to the fact I ought to look into it more sometime, however. Some people I known in real life that play an early conquer style like to use dips to strip a city of walls (in early game) and I watched some of their gameplay and they seemed to be right.
Have you (or anyone else) done any tests for Nuking? That was the one at the top of my Spy list (I actually have a list of stuff to find out more about, but not nearly as organized as Slow Thinker's and it's pretty much stuff that occurs in gameplay in my own games). I have not considered the effect of a capitol on nuking, but now suspect (based on your results and a new gut feel) that nuking a capitol will turn out to have higher odds, too.
Thanks for posting those test results!! Those are good details for determining just what is necessary, but not overkill, for the way I normally plan large invasion forces (which consist largely of spies, both vet and non-vet).
PS, maybe both of you can have a look at a new set of Civ 2 1-page summary sheets that nethog is preparing & feel free to scrutinize it with your knowledge & experience . This is the link to the thread
here.
Thanks!

EDIT: Fix typos, add link.
OK, I'll do that later tonight. Thanks.contact Mark (Apolyton admin) directly by an e-mail. He is awaiting you and prepared to help.
By lafayette:
Outstanding!! Thanks for posting those numbers... I love the spy unit, but have not done similar tests, but have been meaning to for over 2 years. Was the above at Deity? Have you or anyone else noticed any changes in odds at different levels, or at different points in the Tech Tree? Just curious, no data myself.Sorry, this is not in accordance with the results of my testing when we studied diplomats and spies, SlowThinker and I. Here are some results:
1) Inciting revolts: vet and non-vet succeed, but the cost is lower with vet (if 1 is the bribing cost when using a diplo, it becomes 5/6 with non-vet spy and 2/3 with vet spy))
2) Industrial sabotage:
Method #1 ('use her judgment'): losses = 25% with vet, 50% with non-vet
Method #2 ('choose primary target'): losses = 55 vet after 400 attacks (different kinds: capital, non-capital, walls, no-walls,...), 136 non-vet after 400 attacks (same attacks as those with vets)
3) Poisoning water supply:
Capital city, non vet spies, losses = 2/3
Non capital, non vet spies, losses = 1/2
Vet spies = 1/3
The Capital difference with Water Poisoning is something I had not considered. Now that I see your numbers above, Capital Nuking makes the top of my nuke test list for one day looking into Nuking odds.
About #1, yup, that one is exact, due to the game algorithm for computing the gold. Did you find any difference due to Walls? I'd never noticed or considered that one, but someone on ST's site said his son had noticed it. The problem with just noticing stuff in a game (and not testing for it like you have) is that one's "perception" of odds in the heat of battle can often greatly affected.
A thing I've noticed, and am 100% convinced about (but have not tested for the exact numbers, soooo) is that going after City Walls with a diplomat will result in very low odds of actaully getting those walls. That is, if there are 4 improvements, a Dip will not have a true 1 in 4 chance of nailing the walls (or a 1 in 5 if you consider production). Instead, the odds are reduced (maybe by a factor of 2 or 3) for Walls (e.g., making the odds more like 1 in 8 or 1 in 12, using the 1st example above). These odds are jjust a hypothesis to point me to the fact I ought to look into it more sometime, however. Some people I known in real life that play an early conquer style like to use dips to strip a city of walls (in early game) and I watched some of their gameplay and they seemed to be right.
Have you (or anyone else) done any tests for Nuking? That was the one at the top of my Spy list (I actually have a list of stuff to find out more about, but not nearly as organized as Slow Thinker's and it's pretty much stuff that occurs in gameplay in my own games). I have not considered the effect of a capitol on nuking, but now suspect (based on your results and a new gut feel) that nuking a capitol will turn out to have higher odds, too.
Thanks for posting those test results!! Those are good details for determining just what is necessary, but not overkill, for the way I normally plan large invasion forces (which consist largely of spies, both vet and non-vet).

PS, maybe both of you can have a look at a new set of Civ 2 1-page summary sheets that nethog is preparing & feel free to scrutinize it with your knowledge & experience . This is the link to the thread
here.
Thanks!

EDIT: Fix typos, add link.