Ali: It seems that you don't play with any specific goal in mind. I'm not complaining - it is none of my business how you play - but without such a goal, how do you decide what is "good strategy" or "bad strategy" ? IMO we can't debate whether low-paying vans are any good without some goal for context.
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Ali: It seems that you don't play with any specific goal in mind. I'm not complaining - it is none of my business how you play - but without such a goal, how do you decide what is "good strategy" or "bad strategy" ? IMO we can't debate whether low-paying vans are any good without some goal for context.
All I was trying to say here is that in strict EL as defined by Solo's guide you make a handful of cities and stop. I was trying to describe a scenario in which you are still expanding in mid game. That's all.
Ali: Looks like I may have clumsily insulted you ... if so, I'm very sorry. I wanted to analyze your comments, sort of the way I analyzed Magic's a few posts back (in fact, you two may have similar styles and opinions on trade, if not on the early game). But in Magic's case, I know roughly what he is trying to do in his games, so I can ask questions and offer opinions and try to get at the truth. In your case, I want to ask "what is celebration worth to you?" ... "how does it help you with your other goals?" and "can you measure its value in gold?" ... but I guess you will just say "I like my cities to grow" and we are at a dead-end. No?
None of this is intended as criticism of you ! I know you are a very strong player, just with a style different from mine, which I don't always understand quickly. All the best !
None of this is intended as criticism of you ! I know you are a very strong player, just with a style different from mine, which I don't always understand quickly. All the best !
Most of the times there are alternatives.... as long as I can build wonders I will use those vans for wonder building. It all depends on the main goal of the game. Like now we're playing an EL game and those ongoing routes will be used less. But as Ali mentioned I mainly use them at the point I want to grow the smaller cities at the of the end game.
While playing an EL game like GOTM 110 I will use those ongoing routes almost always with the SSC (with the main reason to get the supply list unblocked and get lots of arrows in the city where the van/freight was build). More arrows in a city is more science (I'm not a real mathematics man so this is for me more a feeling then a calculation) and will help me to get earlier to the point of 2 advances a turn.
One thing I want to try out when I will replay GOTM 110 is to make more food vans to let the SSC grow even bigger and look how much more science it will give me. If this works out well I will use less vans for ongoing routes but still need them to unblock the SSC sometimes.
I'm no master with the trade game like Solo, Zenon and other great EL of the past. If I just could play an EL game as they did I indeed think I wouldn't use vans for ongoing routes because there is no time for it (to early for vans which couldn't be used for wonder building). My point is more about those games which last at least around 150 turns or longer. I don't play with the science bar at 100% the whole time. Some periods I use the lux bar to get a short period of celebration. When having some ongoing routes might be a difference for some cities to celebrate at that time. And when they grow I will get more beakers which I need to reach or remain 2 advances a turn. But as I said this is more a feeling that it's a good choice instead of knowing (calculating) it's good or even the best. I will look at my GOTM 110 saves to find out if those cities grow 1 or 2 sizes and how much arrows extra they give me. I don't know how much they grow...I only know they celebrate and had a food surplus.
Elviis are of course the easiest and cheapest way to celebrate. If they help to grow it's the first thing to do I think. So I'm not saying that ongoing routes are cheaper then elviis.
Your point number 3 is a good point. I guess they indeed do not help with hapiness with science at 100%.
The main difference between our games is that you play for coins (gold) and I play for beakers instead of gold. I know gold is important to help RB good van/freights and other stuff but getting enough arrows can be important too.
. I'm not saying my style of playing is the best or that I'm a great player. There always a change to improve. I just can't analyse games like you do and when I can't see the best solution I try to follow my heart. However I do think you did prove playing EL with ICS is a good option. Especially when there is no good early SSC site it will be the best option. But as showed by the comparison games on Apolyton I still think that if there is a great early SSC site it's hard to beat. Of course I don't know how the combination of an early SSC and ICS combination will turn out and might be something to try next.
No offense taken.
These are indeed intriguing questions. Honestly I have not sit down and analyzed them. Obviously growing cities contribute more taxes, more science, and the extra citizens increase my score. But at what point do you stop growing? EL guide uses 10 cities. I typically stop when I run out of room for great cities (in smaller maps) or run out of real time or get too close to the end of the game.
Let me try to analyze a typical case. One of my favorite mid game city locations are tiny islands. You typically get a few grass tiles and the rest is ocean. Without any irrigation and improvements such a city produces 3 surplus food and thus eventually grows to size n+2 with citizens working all the grass and 3 ocean tiles. Let us assume that we have added a harbor which allows the city to grow to size 22 (again no irrigation).
Let us compare two scenarios at the point in time when the city has reached size 3. With citizens working 3 ocean tiles the city produces 11 arrows (2 at city center, 3 each at the 3 ocean tiles in democracy). With lux at 30% and presence of Michelangelo and either Hanging Gardens or Cure, the city will be content if all its citizens are red heads and will celebrate if there is at least one black head. Such celebrations typically end at size 5 or 6. By then the food box is so big that for all practical purposes the city will not grow any further. Let me assume that with 3 trade routes, a temple, and a marketplace I can celebrate to size 22. My investment would be 160g for the marketplace, 80g for the temple, 160g for an aqueduct, 240g for a sewer, and 125 each for the vans. I will further assume that the vans are delivered early enough that their bonuses are negligible. The extra 16 citizens give me 48 extra arrows and the routes for such a large city will be at least worth 7 arrows each. That would be a total of 69 arrows and since I have a marketplace that yields 69*.7*1.5=72 coins per turn (I am assuming science rate is zero here for simplicity). Deduct 6 for the cost of the upkeep of the infrastructure and you have a net of 66. So for an investment of 1015g I get (with some delay) 66g per turn which is about 6.5%.
timtofly
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Did you purposely not start near a good SSC site in GOTM 110, or did it just work out that way?
Is there going to be a June Game?
Thanks
You can't wait to long to start with the SSC (if you goal is early landing). In GOTM 110 the site I founded my SSC is not that bad but has only 1 special (whale) but also a lot of oceantiles and some rivertiles. I just didn't find a good place nearby with 3 or 4 specials with a lot of arrows (like gold or wine) before 500 BC. Now I played almost the entire game I know there might be a better spot on a nearby island. Don't know how well that place could be developped because it contained a lot of jungle...
Yes there will a June Game but it will be a special game which won't need much RL time and not the option to build much cities (perhaps only one)....because it's gonna be an ancient seabattle game....I guess I've got it ready tomorrow to upload it to CFC.
Yes there will a June Game but it will be a special game which won't need much RL time and not the option to build much cities (perhaps only one)....because it's gonna be an ancient seabattle game....I guess I've got it ready tomorrow to upload it to CFC.
OK - we were originally talking about early game trading and then about EL games, I think, but maybe we've moved past that now. I don't see anything wrong with using vans for WoWs, or unblocking, or late game tricks. I'm saying it's usually a bad idea in the early/mid game to buld undemanded vans, where you expect to get an initial bonus under about 65g. This applies to EL and EC games (and I'm still not convinced other kinds of single-player games involve much strategy).
I was wondering about this idea too (after normal celebration ends, I assume). I guess you get one super scientist for the cost of two vans (250g). Dunno - but it sounds reasonable to me.
Why do you want 2 advances per turn ? For me, it would be to finish faster. But then I probably wouldn't be playing a long game, past 150 turns, especially if I was able to get 2 advances per turn. I mean, you can probably finish before that with only 1 advance per turn if you try.
OK. I think Ali said Elvii are cheaper than using the lux bar, which is true if only a few cities need help to celebrate. In my games, I usually need a combination of the two, to help many cities, and I think the lux bar does most of the work for me.
Gold is certainly better for fast growth, which is important in the early game. There are times in EL games when you need advances more than growth ... I am not sure know a general rule for that though. But I'd agree that beakers are more important than gold near the end of an EL game, and maybe when trying to get special advances such as Monarchy, Trade, etc.The main difference between our games is that you play for coins (gold) and I play for beakers instead of gold. I know gold is important to help RB good van/freights and other stuff but getting enough arrows can be important too.
Well, I might do that too, once in a while, but don't tell anyone.
Now, I think that combination [along with Big Trade] is almost required for best play. My GOTM 110 used ICS and Big Trade, and not much of an SSC, but now I see that was a mistake. I probably could've gotten a period of 2 adv/t towards the end and cut 10 turns from my launch. Solo and Zenon also felt the SSC was needed to get through the Renaissance quickly. But I didn't have great problems with that, and am not sure the SSC is urgent.
I've been studying the Poly game #7, and am trying my own ideas, but am
having a hard time beating Zenon's 335AD. He used ICS to start his game, but stopped at about 12 cities (until adding more much later). He relied on pretty big trade througout the game, but you might miss this from his log. Mainly, you'll notice his SSC was "done" by around 1AD. Pretty dramatic ! On the other hand, solo played just as well and relied more on ICS. I'm using pretty much the same tools, but with more emphasis on trade and continual growth (and less EL skill). As you said, it may be partly the Poly map, which has a ridiculously good SSC site, and is OK but not great for trade.
What do you mean by the last sentence ? Why does the food box matter ?
Thanks for doing this. I understand your reasoning better now.
One problem is that you have combined the routes with other decisions, and then concluded that since the whole package makes sense, then the routes make sense. Couldn't you grow a big city some other way ? For example, suppose there is a third option:
3) Same as your second option, but suppose routes A and B came from high-paying deliveries (let's say 200g each, plus 200 beakers each). There is no route C, because we expected that van to be a dud. Without that route, the city only gets to size 21, so we build a courthouse for 160g to compensate. Isn't that better, by 240g and 400b ? I must admit, I don't understand celebrations 100%, and am not sure a courthouse is equivalent to a trade route.
The other problem I see is "(with some delay)". Can you estimate this ? For example, if the expenses occur around 500AD and the big extra taxes arrive in 1000AD, then we have to discount them by a factor of about 4. IMO there is not much delay with improvements, which are usually built just in time. But I'm guessing the trade routes are created much earlier, without a definite schedule for the future celebrations.
I still didn't manage to launch before turn 150 and because of that I get a lot of vans which can't be used (getting big revenue/wonder building). So yes it is indeed to finish faster.
My midgame (the period between Republic to Democracy) is the hardest part where I "lose" to many turns. If I am able to improve that part a lot I will be able to win before turn 150.
timtofly
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I would like to point out that in the Apolyton game # seven, the SSC was the seventh city, and was not until 2200/2300 BC. In GOTM 110, founding the seventh city on a good spot for the SSC, was not an impossability. What was hard was getting early cities on the coast set up to send out vans since the starting point was in the middle of the island. I think in GOTM 110, Republic could have been bypassed, due to corruption. Celebrating cities under Monarchy may have had a better up front bonus and an ongoing bonus than trying for celebrating cities under Republic.
In EL games, that is desired. If the AI can discover something I need so much the better. My goal is not defeating the AI, it is building a space ship faster. EL guide even suggests giving railroad to all rivals as soon as you discover it hoping that someone will build Darwin. The turn you get the warning that they are about done, you tech bomb them with everything you got and allow them to get two new techs you can trade for in a few turns.
What I mean is that without celebration this city will probably not grow for the rest of the game, so I am justified in attributing the benefit of all new citizens to my effort towards celebration.
Thanks for making me do it. It made me quantify my intuition.
I love courthouses and I do make them at times to aid in celebration. They are the only local-to-a-city way of making a content citizen happy (besides hiring entertainers). Surely in the scenario you described a courthouse makes more sense. In general there is a balance that needs to be struck here. Often the question is not a courthouse versus a low paying delivery but rather the main question that needs to be decided on a case by case basis is at what point do you deliver? Delivering early means smaller initial payoff but longer trade route benefit and less chance of your commodity falling out of demand.
Correct. The problem with discounting the routes is that you get some benefit right away (the extra arrows) but how much you need for continuing celebrations is very hard to predict. Furthermore, often the decision as to when to deliver is dictated by logistics of delivery.
Hmmm... so many questions, so little time.
1) The value of ongoing routes for celebration ?
2) When to build and deliver a given [demanded] van?
3) Whether to build and deliver undemanded vans?
4) The value of the ongoing route (ignoring celebration)?
I think this all started with 3), when I suggested that an [undemanded] van paying much under 65g was usually a loss. This led us to 1) and 4). I have already estimated the answer to 4) to be about 60g [I assumed the route pays about +3 arrows per turn, without rising much in the next 10 turns. I did not discount the 60g for the delay in delivery].
My first reaction to 2) is - do it ASAP. Since you said it was demanded, I'll assume we are talking about 125g or more here. I think I already discussed this briefly with Prof G before he got tired of me. The reason is that your payoff probably won't grow faster than inflation [usually about 5% to 7% in Civ2]. In other words, you are better off with a modest payoff that you can re-invest quickly. This advice does not apply in some special cases:
a) If you have limited gold for RBs, use it to get the best payoffs you can. So, you may have to delay the smaller ones, because there is no real choice.
b) I'm assuming you deliver overseas at a reasonable distance (over 20 tiles or so, I guess) otherwise you probably aren't getting a good return. Again, I don't see this as a real choice.
c) If your supplying city happens to reach size three, and starts to grow, just as your van arrives, then it may be reasonable to wait a few turns to deliver. But this is so rare, it is hardly worth mentioning, and I suspect that delivering immediately is not a big mistake anyway.
So, that brings us back to 1). After our latest posts, it seems there are many ways to celebrate, and the value of the ongoing route should not be greater than the costs of alternative methods that give the same result. Given this bound, I think we can treat ongoing routes as just a flow of arrows, much like any other arrows [actually less valuable than the ones from workers, since they don't affect initial van bonuses]. For "normal arrows", 1 arrow = 1 gold = 1 beaker works pretty well for most Civ2 decisions. Do you see any reason arrows from ongoing routes should be treated differently ? Anyway, if we can agree that "an arrow is just an arrow", it would simplify all this quite a bit. In fact, we could ignore 1); meaning replace it with 4).
Maybe we don't need to know, if the "arrow=arrow" idea seems OK to you.
Otherwise, can you make a very rough guess about the delay ? I think my games may not fit your idea well, since I rarely have cities over size 12. My rough guess is: Average delay = 15 turns. [I imagine a van in -200, which affects various celebrations averaging to approx +200AD ... about 18 turns ... but most vans come later than that, and affect fewer celebrations, with less delay ... so it seems fair to reduce the 18 to 15 ... I don't know if this right ... what do you think ?].
timtofly
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I am not sure if this has been mentioned as part of the equation, but?
Ongoing trade routes seem to not only be tied to the revenue but also the luxery. The luxery is what determines happiness. Another thing is shield production tends to be a negative factor on luxery/happiness. A worker on a tile producing 3 shields will be red, but if he is producing arrows he will be content. If the shields have nothing to do with happiness then an arrow is more than an arrow when it comes to being unhappy and content.
Ongoing trade routes seem to not only be tied to the revenue but also the luxery. The luxery is what determines happiness. Another thing is shield production tends to be a negative factor on luxery/happiness. A worker on a tile producing 3 shields will be red, but if he is producing arrows he will be content. If the shields have nothing to do with happiness then an arrow is more than an arrow when it comes to being unhappy and content.
While there are multiple ways of bringing about celebrations (entertainers, courthouses, increased lux rate, and on going routes) the least expensive and most effective are on going routes, so saying it is just another arrow is not completely correct.
Furthermore, to make it possible for a city to grow to max size you need a marketplace and sometimes also a bank. So an arrow equals 1.5 to 2 coins.
Finally, I am more likely to deliver a demanded van to a city that has fewer than 3 routes from another city of mine than to make an undemanded van.
In other words, we are talking about a low priority uncommon occurrence. Your point is that it is worthless, my point is that it's worth is low. I think we agree more than we disagree.
This is simply not true. If you set lux to zero whether a worker is producing shields or arrows is immaterial. What makes you think this is the case?
timtofly
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My point has to do with post Mass Production when shields start to cause unhapiness through the polution factor. However this will not come into play for most EC and EL players. I only brought it up because it is a factor, but not until after mass production.
Back on topic: an arrow = 1/3 coin, 1/3 beaker, 1/3 luxury roughly. The slider would have to be set at 30% gold, 30% science, and 40% luxury. Nothing really adds luxury, instead factors reduce unhappiness (an Elvis, a temple, a unit). Initially, buildings take from gold (to Maintain), but add to the value of the arrow. There comes a point when buildings CANNOT be maintained without a loss, unless there are trade routes established. In ICS this is avoided because there are little or no buildings and the concentration of income is in the delivery of vans. In this case you have to have vans or you will not survive either. Ongoing trade routes are formed, and do add a benefit with an increase in arrows with out the maintenance cost of a building. These (trade) arrows will never be worth much in ICS. These arrows are like compounding interest, they increase as the the city grows (in population, in buildings that produce more gold). While they are doing their "small part", they are also adding more and more as the city grows.
While I am all for using vans to build wonders and getting that high pay for a demanded AI route, I think that establishing trade routes early (if they have not been made by overseas delivery) should be important also. Even if that good is undemanded. When a van is produced and the option is given to make it a commodity or food, the questions to ask yourself. Is one of the commodities demanded and can I get it there in a timely matter? Can this van be used in building a wonder? and Can I use a demanded/undemanded good to create a domestic route that will produce a strong trade route?
It has been pointed out by Solo, that if you have 3 strong routes in your city and the wild card commodities have been opened. These will always remain open as long as your trade does not create a new route. When you send a demanded commodity back from a colony to your SSC or STC, you have full control over this by making sure your delivery does not create a new route.
Ongoing routes offset the cost of new buildings.
Ongoing routes effect happiness (celebrations).
Ongoing routes when strong allow unblocked commodities to remain unblocked.
Back on topic: an arrow = 1/3 coin, 1/3 beaker, 1/3 luxury roughly. The slider would have to be set at 30% gold, 30% science, and 40% luxury. Nothing really adds luxury, instead factors reduce unhappiness (an Elvis, a temple, a unit). Initially, buildings take from gold (to Maintain), but add to the value of the arrow. There comes a point when buildings CANNOT be maintained without a loss, unless there are trade routes established. In ICS this is avoided because there are little or no buildings and the concentration of income is in the delivery of vans. In this case you have to have vans or you will not survive either. Ongoing trade routes are formed, and do add a benefit with an increase in arrows with out the maintenance cost of a building. These (trade) arrows will never be worth much in ICS. These arrows are like compounding interest, they increase as the the city grows (in population, in buildings that produce more gold). While they are doing their "small part", they are also adding more and more as the city grows.
While I am all for using vans to build wonders and getting that high pay for a demanded AI route, I think that establishing trade routes early (if they have not been made by overseas delivery) should be important also. Even if that good is undemanded. When a van is produced and the option is given to make it a commodity or food, the questions to ask yourself. Is one of the commodities demanded and can I get it there in a timely matter? Can this van be used in building a wonder? and Can I use a demanded/undemanded good to create a domestic route that will produce a strong trade route?
It has been pointed out by Solo, that if you have 3 strong routes in your city and the wild card commodities have been opened. These will always remain open as long as your trade does not create a new route. When you send a demanded commodity back from a colony to your SSC or STC, you have full control over this by making sure your delivery does not create a new route.
Ongoing routes offset the cost of new buildings.
Ongoing routes effect happiness (celebrations).
Ongoing routes when strong allow unblocked commodities to remain unblocked.
Why do you say they are least expensive ? I agree that this is a central issue, though. If you consider the initial bonus of the van to be negligible, then the cost of the route is about 125g, for the van. That's in the same ballpark as a minor city improvement if they occur at about the same time in the game.
I am having more trouble measuring the benefits of the route, and that is what I meant about "an arrow is an arrow". For example,
a) City A gets 30 arrows per turn from city workers.
b) City B gets 20 arrows per turn from workers and 10 arrows per turn from routes, for a total of 30.
Mainly, I'm asking whether these cities are equivalent (assuming all else equal). AFAIK they are the same, in terms of taxes, science and chances to celebrate, for example. Formulas like 1a = 1g are reasonable for City A, and I can't see why City B would differ. There is some chance I'm missing something about the game mechanics of celebration - otherwise, I feel pretty sure about this.
How do you get this ?
Maybe ... I am not quite sure what we are arguing about anymore. This all started when I very innocently advised newbies not to deliver vans for less than 65g (and not less than 130g, if they don't need the beakers). IIRC I was talking mainly about trading habits in the early game. One main point was that the ongoing routes were usually much less valuable than the van. Some players seemed to disagree strongly, and mentioned several reasons, including celebrations. That was the main factor I've had trouble understanding. For now, I don't think these routes have any secret powers to aid celebrations - they just increase lux's, like other tools, so they can be measured in a normal way.
I guess if you deliver domestically, then you get 2 routes per van. So, twice the value, which should make a difference. In that case, I agree you wouldn't need much of an initial bonus at all with that (maybe 20g or so). On the other hand, I have been thinking that blocking a city's supply option is a hidden cost in all this. It would depend a lot on the situation, but might average 40g or 50g per city per van. So, I'd be cautious about this case, too.
timtofly
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Your "view" of 130/65 does fit your ICS style of playing, because you have twice as many cities as most "celebrating" power Democracy players. Power Democracy players try to maximize the "ongoing trade" as well as the initial bonus to obtain larger cities sooner. The larger the city the more it depends on improvements. Improvements drive up cost. Ongoing routes offset this cost.
For example: Take 50 ICS cities with 3 ongoing trade routes ranging from 0-6. Compared with 25 full size Democracy cities ranging from 10-20. In ICS, 3 routes in each city gives you 0-900 arrows. In the Power Democracy, 3 routes in each city gives you 750-1500 arrows.
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