The recent discussion came up about the "insanity" of going Progress after Tradition as opposed to the Medieval trees. My instant reaction was the same, the medieval trees are definitely better, going progress after tradition is simply not a good idea.
But....I like to throw down the science. So lets take a side by side look at the trees to see what we are getting here. I will start the winner of each category.
Assumptions (feel free to critique if you think any of these are gravely off).
1) All key buildings are built for purposes of bonuses.
2) A building is built every 10 turns in a city.
3) Scaling starts in the Medieval Era (since tradition was taken first).
4) A new person is born every 10 turns in a city.
5) 6 cities, assuming a more TALL focus since its a Tradition start.
6) Both Trees are finished.
7) Forbidden Palace and Taj Mahal are not built (we are looking at the tree on its own).
8) A new tech is researched every 8 turns.
9) 4 trade routes that get the burghers bonus.
10) Capital is Size 13 when Progress is first taken (strong capital with Tradition).
11) 1 pasture per city (more likely to be concentrated but for the ease is discussion).
12) 20 Happiness in the Empire
13) 15 non-specialist citizens per city.
Food
Progress: 3 Food/City + 2/3/4/5/6/7 food for every building built.
***Fealty: 11 Food/City
Fealty is just better on food period.
Science
Progress: 3 SPT. Raw 390 science when first taken, plus +4/5/6/7/8/9 SPT due to citizens in the capital.
Fealty: 5 SPT per city, +8 SPT from trade routes
Progress gets an immediate head start, and then stays neck and neck to Fealty with its citizen bonuses. However, fealty gets more science multiplier on its bonus. I think this one is close enough to call a tie.
Gold
***Progress: 2 GPT + 3/4.5/6/7.5/9/10.5 GPT from citizens
Fealty: 1 GPT
No contest here. Progress is significantly better in terms of gold production.
Hammers
Progress: 2 PPT + 10% for buildings
***Fealty: 3 PPT + 15% everything during WLTKD.
The burghers bonus is just baller once you learn to chain those WLTKD days towards the mid game. Really no question to me on this one.
Culture
***Progress: 14.4/20.6/26.9/33.1/39.4/45.6 CPT due to techs + 2/3/4/5/6/7 culture for buildings * 6 =
26.4/38.6/50.9/63.1/75.4/87.6 CPT overall.
Fealty: +5 CPT per city * 6 = +30, +8 from trade routes, +10 from happiness = +48 CPT overall.
They start out competitive but Progress keeps scaling up the culture as the game goes on.
Faith
***Fealty: No contest here. Fealty is the main go to for faith and religion.
Happiness
Progress: ~+15 happiness from population, -5% all unhappy.
Fealty: 6 happiness, -15% from boredom. +15 to defense (fights crime).
This one is tough. Its hard to guage how much progress' happiness will grow, and hard to know how much those yields reductors will help. If I assume Fealty's reductors give on average 1 less unhappy per city, we are at 15 vs 12. But Progress takes some time to get to 15 as well.
Its too close for me to call.
Misc
Progress: Faster workers (can assume certain bonuses will come online ~1-2 turns quicker than Fealty. Can buy great writers
Fealty: +15 defense, 50% faster religion spread in certain areas, +25% tourism for shared defense. Can buy great artists.
Another tough one. Ultimately I don't consider the faster religion to be important....if religion is your game than this entire topic is mute....fealty is the one for you. The tourism is not a great bonus if you aren't focusing on CV.
Faster workers are useful to everyone, any playstyle, any era. Personally I also think Great Writers are better than Great Artists. Once I start getting my eternal golden ages, Artists lose their luster, but Great Writers just keep going and going. However, you can argue that with the tremendous more faith you get for Fealty, you are going to bag probably 2 more GPs at least. That should not be discounted. Lastly, defense is always a nice thing to have, in some games its not important, in others its a godsend.
So ultimately I go with a tie here.
Conclusion:
Ultimately I can see why Tradition/Progress looks viable. Progress seems to hold its own against Fealty pretty well in this scenario, they both have advantages in different places. I personally think Fealty's base of more food and hammers will ultimately give you a stronger civ long turn...but Progress has enough solid bonuses that I don't consider it an automatic victory either way.
But....I like to throw down the science. So lets take a side by side look at the trees to see what we are getting here. I will start the winner of each category.
Assumptions (feel free to critique if you think any of these are gravely off).
1) All key buildings are built for purposes of bonuses.
2) A building is built every 10 turns in a city.
3) Scaling starts in the Medieval Era (since tradition was taken first).
4) A new person is born every 10 turns in a city.
5) 6 cities, assuming a more TALL focus since its a Tradition start.
6) Both Trees are finished.
7) Forbidden Palace and Taj Mahal are not built (we are looking at the tree on its own).
8) A new tech is researched every 8 turns.
9) 4 trade routes that get the burghers bonus.
10) Capital is Size 13 when Progress is first taken (strong capital with Tradition).
11) 1 pasture per city (more likely to be concentrated but for the ease is discussion).
12) 20 Happiness in the Empire
13) 15 non-specialist citizens per city.
Food
Progress: 3 Food/City + 2/3/4/5/6/7 food for every building built.
***Fealty: 11 Food/City
Fealty is just better on food period.
Science
Progress: 3 SPT. Raw 390 science when first taken, plus +4/5/6/7/8/9 SPT due to citizens in the capital.
Fealty: 5 SPT per city, +8 SPT from trade routes
Progress gets an immediate head start, and then stays neck and neck to Fealty with its citizen bonuses. However, fealty gets more science multiplier on its bonus. I think this one is close enough to call a tie.
Gold
***Progress: 2 GPT + 3/4.5/6/7.5/9/10.5 GPT from citizens
Fealty: 1 GPT
No contest here. Progress is significantly better in terms of gold production.
Hammers
Progress: 2 PPT + 10% for buildings
***Fealty: 3 PPT + 15% everything during WLTKD.
The burghers bonus is just baller once you learn to chain those WLTKD days towards the mid game. Really no question to me on this one.
Culture
***Progress: 14.4/20.6/26.9/33.1/39.4/45.6 CPT due to techs + 2/3/4/5/6/7 culture for buildings * 6 =
26.4/38.6/50.9/63.1/75.4/87.6 CPT overall.
Fealty: +5 CPT per city * 6 = +30, +8 from trade routes, +10 from happiness = +48 CPT overall.
They start out competitive but Progress keeps scaling up the culture as the game goes on.
Faith
***Fealty: No contest here. Fealty is the main go to for faith and religion.
Happiness
Progress: ~+15 happiness from population, -5% all unhappy.
Fealty: 6 happiness, -15% from boredom. +15 to defense (fights crime).
This one is tough. Its hard to guage how much progress' happiness will grow, and hard to know how much those yields reductors will help. If I assume Fealty's reductors give on average 1 less unhappy per city, we are at 15 vs 12. But Progress takes some time to get to 15 as well.
Its too close for me to call.
Misc
Progress: Faster workers (can assume certain bonuses will come online ~1-2 turns quicker than Fealty. Can buy great writers
Fealty: +15 defense, 50% faster religion spread in certain areas, +25% tourism for shared defense. Can buy great artists.
Another tough one. Ultimately I don't consider the faster religion to be important....if religion is your game than this entire topic is mute....fealty is the one for you. The tourism is not a great bonus if you aren't focusing on CV.
Faster workers are useful to everyone, any playstyle, any era. Personally I also think Great Writers are better than Great Artists. Once I start getting my eternal golden ages, Artists lose their luster, but Great Writers just keep going and going. However, you can argue that with the tremendous more faith you get for Fealty, you are going to bag probably 2 more GPs at least. That should not be discounted. Lastly, defense is always a nice thing to have, in some games its not important, in others its a godsend.
So ultimately I go with a tie here.
Conclusion:
Ultimately I can see why Tradition/Progress looks viable. Progress seems to hold its own against Fealty pretty well in this scenario, they both have advantages in different places. I personally think Fealty's base of more food and hammers will ultimately give you a stronger civ long turn...but Progress has enough solid bonuses that I don't consider it an automatic victory either way.