Turn 3550 - New Hut

[Duke of Marlbrough]

The Archer explored North to try and uncover the Ocean square that some people wanted to see. The Chariot went West to uncover more terrain. The Horseman went South to find the end of our continent.

We have discovered 4 new specials. Assuming I followed the pattern correctly, it is not pattern #3. Assuming it is pattern #2, we have a very nice possibility for a better SSC at (79,57). It will have a silk, gems, and a whale, a possible fourth special, plus plenty of grasslands and ocean for food and more trade.

We have a new hut that was found by the Archer.

General Summary:
One turn away from getting Bronze Working.
All units have moved except for the Archer.
We have 6 gold.
Neither city has built their warriors yet.

Explored World

Hut Pattern Possibility

Regia Civitas

Thunderfalls


Main Topics of discussion:

Pop Hut?
If we get a unit, it will be supported by ThunderFalls
There is still no chance of Barbs (we are only on turn 10)

Make new city ASAP at new spot and make that SSC?
The new city site has more 'trade friendly' terrain.
If our capital is changed to a settler we can have it built in less then 11 turns and the new city founded 9 turns after it is built.

Next turn will be played on Tuesday the 20th.

Edit: fixed links

 

[Duke of Marlbrough]

The only possible downside I see to the hut is a tech that spoils our path to Monarchy.

I am very tempted to try and shift our SSC. The Silk and Gems are just too tempting to pass up. Unfortunately, time is not something I have much of, so I can't fully analyze the two spots.

If we do switch, I can buy the shield that is left for the warrior, then we can buy more shields once we have Bronze Working and Phalanx. So the settler from the Capital will take a bit less then 11 turns. Maybe 8ish?

Well, that's all for me tonight.

 

[Octavian X]

I say go for the hut. Take a risk. If we get a new unit, it'll help supress any unhappiness. A new settler would be great for expanding the empire. Any knowledge would be useful. Etc, etc, etc...

 

[Jayne]

Originally posted by Duke of Marlbrough
The only possible downside I see to the hut is a tech that spoils our path to Monarchy.

Apologies to those in the know, but this is a new concept to me. Could someone explain it to me?

Cheers

 

[duke o' york]

Oh man! This is a conundrum indeed.
I want to say that we wait until the chariot has uncovered the extra square in that (potential) city's radius before making a decision as to the suitability of the new site but I don't know whether we can afford that luxury. Besides, we'll probably require a decision on the construction goal before the chariot will get a chance to move again.
The grassland does look very attractive though, and we'll still be able to build a harbour for all the sea squares. I agree that it looks very promising but call for a domestic ministry vote on the subject. (Any irony given my last reply in the science thread entirely intentional )
There is another good city site down at the bottom, with two whales and harbour potential so I don't think we should complain about the land we've got. Especially after we were moaning that Smash might have hidden all the specials!

 

[mordhiem]

Pop that hut now! I don't even understand why its a supposed issue.

Best case scenario (other than popping an Armour or something ):
A settler which can then settle in the new improved SSC spot

Worst case scenario: A free tech that slightly slows down our path to monarchy.


As for the new SSC spot, I think that the relocation of Thunderfalls is the best route to go. The sooner we can grab it the quicker it can start pumping out trade. Also the spot to the south near the whales looks appetising.

Smash said this when he revealed the map:

I examined the starting spots and I think some ais should progress well.I liked the start spot for a Demo game cuz there are important decisions to be made right away.Critical decisions that will set the course of history.

Choose Well

I think we know what he meant now

 

[duke o' york]

An Armour would be nice - or a NON stealth would be even better! We don't have to move Thunderfalls though. We can just change the building project to a settler and then move the archer in when it grows to size 2. I feel that the settler should be rushed as soon as possible so that we get the best start for the SSC if it is to be in this new location. The whale will ensure that it has good production and growth capacity, and the grassland shields will make it bigger and better!
I still want to see what the chariot can uncover, but am quite happy for the SSC to be in this new location.

 

[Daaraa]

Do we need to vote to see if we want to move the SSC? Personally I am in favour of moving it to the location everyone is talking about. It looks like a much better site.

 

[heliogabalus]

I am hesitant about moving the SSC. There is the issue of corruption, as the new city would not be our capital, and the building of the Colossus would be delayed.

I appeal to anyone who knows how to do the calculations to figure out how much trade we would lose due to later building and corruption at the new site. Only then we can make an educated decision.

 

[duke o' york]

Don't forget to take into account the fact that the proposed new SSC location has three specials guaranteed, and the chance (an excellent one) of another next turn! For the capital then we'll have to wait until either mapmaking or we can bribe a barb trireme to find another special and several turns to forest or plains the grassland square that would hold the fourth special if it is indeed a 4-special city.
I'm in favour of the new one - without support then we can get building the Colossus and use the NONs to control revolts, maybe bringing in some troops from the other cities if necessary. We haven't received the "X civ have begun the Pyramids" yet so we're all right for the moment.

 

[Leowind]

Why not have Thunder Falls build the settler? That was to be its role anyway IIRC, plus it's closer to the new potential SSC site. We're going to build there, whether its becomes our new SSC or not, so lets go ahead and plan for that at least. In the meantime we can uncover the necessary squares to better determine whether we want to switch it to our SSC.

Jayne, every time a tech is discovered, you need more science beakers than last time to discover the next tech. This includes techs "discovered" by popping a hut, IIRC. That means gaining a tech NOT on the path to Monarchy makes the techs we're actually researching take longer to get, which makes it take longer to get to Monarchy. Have I explained this correctly, those of you who should know?

That said, the hut is a conundrum. Pop it now and take a chance on a tech, or pop it later and take a chance on barbs in what will by then be the heart of our empire? I think I'd go ahead and pop it, but I could certainly see the arguments for--and be comfortable with--waiting until after Monarchy.

 

[anarchywrksbest]

I say have ThunderFalls complete its warrior then change to a settler and build a new SSC in the newly discovered position.

The new city *checks list* will be called Elysium I believe which means paradise. Quite fitting with all those specials

 

[starlifter]

Wow... what a windfall, and some of it is very subtle! But more on all that later.

First, we now know the hut & specials pattern for the entire map, except the location of the dateline, which we know is not in our territory.


I have started from scratch on the Master Pattern Template. I have outlined the land in green, and out first 2 cities. Here is where we are:

Here is how that translated to our known map.
Red S = Special location
Red H = Hut Location
Yellow X = Hut or Special will not appear on this map.

 

[anarchywrksbest]

Wow, yet another 4-special city to the south! We are spoilt but because the NW site has 3 land based specials it is the best of the 3 currently visible. Right??

 

[mordhiem]

Three (count 'em) 4 special sites on our start island!

Looking at the specials already uncovered the western site has the best potential for trade, so all we need to do is relocate the palace there right? How many shields is it to build one? I'll check. *delves into rules.txt* Ah, 100 shields and we would need masonry to build it. Hmmm, so a quick relocation is out of the question. Can someone in the know calculate how much trade would be lost through corruption in the NW site? The SE site looks tasty too.

As Domestic Advisor, I highly recommend placing cities in these key spots as soon as possible, even if that means bleeding Thunderfalls dry for 20 turns or so. As to which one should be our SSC, well a poll is in order now.

 

[starlifter]

Yup, you all are right!

I've rarely seen an early game that is this dominant in terms of good fortune. Excellent city layout, rapid expansion. And most amazingly, there is a land tile on each of the critical 3 locations for a 4-way special... and of all good fortune, none are landlocked. And all have suitable starting terrain (grass or plains). And barring the undiscovered strip of NW land, we are alone!


Well, on to some analysis. BTW, Leowind has foreseen many of the consequences of this excellent start.


THE HUT

About the hut, we are not in position to pop it. Here is why:

1. We are Deity/RH. A barb horseman (very likely, given how well we are doing) can defeat out NONE archer.

2. We do not want to lose that Archer, under any circumsances.

3. The Chariot is close by, and no enemies threaten us, or steal the hut.

4. We are in no hurry at all to get anything from that hut. Patience is a virtue.

Sooo.... Wait until the support from the Chariot arrives before popping it.



TF PRODUCTION

If we are alone on the land, we want TF to build a setter first. Here is why:

1. We want rapid expansion before Barbs appear.

2. The horseman can return to TF to quell unhappiness at size 2 (warrior unnecessary).... the Archer may be returning real soon, too.



THE CAPITAL

It is overwhelmingly unprofitable to move the capital anytime soon, esp. at Deity. Here is why:

1. It costs half a wonder to move the Capital. Give me half a Hanging Gardens at Deity anyday.

2. Founding a city at one of the other 2 4 special sites is at least 14+6+1=21 days away.

3. A couple thousand years will elapse before the capital can be moved.

4. Overall core corruption will increase in Ancient Gov't if a the capital is moved, particularly to the SW (gems) site (assymetric early empire).

5. The SSC can still be built at an alternative site, if the AIs are stagnant (or we are quick). If not stagnant, we likely will not have a SSC to build, if we don't get the Colossus, which the AI loves to build quick (this is also heavily dependent of when we get the Trade advance).

6. The SW (gem city) site is now discussed in the other threads, but is a potential 77 (or even 80 with gold mine) arrow site, plus 21 Colossus... 77+21+20+20+20=158 (approx, due to 20 est. for trade routes with AI).

In short, the two dominant sites seem to be RC and the Gem City.... with Gem City being a better mid and late game trade city.

 

[starlifter]

Specific Issues:

Pop Hut?
If we get a unit, it will be supported by ThunderFalls
There is still no chance of Barbs (we are only on turn 10)

Make new city ASAP at new spot and make that SSC?
The new city site has more 'trade friendly' terrain.
If our capital is changed to a settler we can have it built in less then 11 turns and the new city founded 9 turns after it is built.

Actually, the odds are extrememly high (maybe 30-40% or so) that we will get a barb if we pop the hut. Barbs can appear after we found a city. We can also get a NONE settler (villager) now. We can also get an Advanced Tribe. And of course all the rest. Since the AIs are unknown at the moment, huts should be popped in teams... no John Wayne stuff for now .


The 3rd city should could still be at the Grassland Shield 3 tiles north of TFalls, for several reasons. In despotism, the 3rd shield will be wasted at d=9.5 (gem city). It is closer, no waste, and even with a road enroute, will be done 2 turns sooner. It will spawn the Gems city, if the hut is not an AT. If the hut is an AT, the hut can spawn the gems city. TFalls can then spawn the south 2 whales city.

It is my general feel that, given the location of the Gems in relation to the whales, we may be in a 2-2 fish/whales pattern. We will likely know next turn, when the 4th tile is revealed north of gems. If it is Gems or gold or coal, then the grassland non-shield west of RC is likely a fish (pheasant/buffalo) and the east special (ocean) is likely an actual Fish (which would at least be good for early growth and trade, compared to a land tile in Gems City). This will also mean that the grassland shield in the South 4-way city is a Pheasant, and its ocean special is a Fish. However, with 65,535 combinations... you never know till you see it. But we see enough to deduce the specific fish/whale patterns, I suspect.


Just for discussion, in late game when it no longer matters much for SSC science (science is often set to zero in mid/late game), the gems city would have (assuming 2nd gems):

+1+4+5+5=+14, or 63+14=77 base trade.
-2-3-3-3=-11 base food (specials)

RC would have:
+0+0+1+1=+2, or 63+2=65 base trade.
-1-1-1-0=-3 base food (specials)

This is a differential of 8 food on the specials, which means smaller size except when limited by Aquaducts or Sewers. In late game, this food offset is worth 4 citizens, which can support scientists worth up to 18b each, or 18*3=48 b (or 48g).


The real payout of a SSC is in early and mid game. Assuming Size 12, based on 2-2 fish/whale assumption & Republic (about 20% corruption at 9.5):

RC=39t, Gems=41 to 44t, and South=39t. So, the Gems city is about equal to RC in trade, during ancient Governments. If the 4th special is a Buffalo/Pheasant, then it will still have a slight (+3) trade advantage before corruption thru Modern Govt.

With the advent of Democracy, the Gems City will be clearly superior for an SSC, but even more importantly, for a trade city.

Until Size 12 or so, RC (since it is started and is larger), will be the superior city, due to the distance factor and the lack of WLTC growth of the Gems city.

Gems City will very likely be a clearly superior city for trade, depending on the 4th special and the specials pattern. Once we found Gems City, in can start on a wonder. If it can beat the AI to Colossus, then it will make a better trade city, esp. one turn following Automobile (when the Superhighways are completed) late game.

If Gems City gets Colossus, it can move the Capital to it before heavy trade gets underway (probably at or shortly after 0AD). As a non-capital, Gems City will do approximately the same as RC can do as the capital, assuming the 4th special is Gems (or silk or Gold).


So the final conclusion is to wait and see how the game works out... if it can be a Colossus city (SSC), then great! If not, we have a great SSC at RC anyway. After Flight, it will not matter anymore... the Gems City will likely be the dominant trade city in the Empire.

 

[Duke of Marlbrough]

Yes, I did mispost the info. I really need to try and proof my posts a bit more.

I was referring to random barbs not being a possibility since we are only at turn 10. It seems I didn't copy over all of my post.

Barbs are a possibility from the hut, but since we have the chariot close by they would not be a threat to our cities. I'm more than willing to risk the chance (maybe 30%) of Barbs appearing to try for the 70% that something else will happen. So, barring Barbs, the only real downside I see to popping the hut is a tech that messes up our run for Monarchy.

If the Chariot was not in the area, I would not be so willing to pop the hut. Ideally, we would wait until the chariot is in range to take care of the possiblity of Barbs, but I'm not sure if we want to use turns for that level of comfort.

 

[starlifter]

So, barring Barbs, the only real downside I see to popping the hut is a tech that messes up our run for Monarchy

Barbs are not a negative, because:

1. Only a single horseman can emerge at this point (Note: the info in nethog's Civ 2 summaries will show exactly why).

2. The Archer has about a 50-50 chance of gaining vet status by killing the barb horse... but the Chariot must pop it. A 4/3/1 archer is massively dominant at this point in the game, and can conquer an early AI civ, esp with the Chariot.

3. The hut will wait.

4. We really really need to know exactly what the 4th special at Gems City is. If it is Gold or Gems or Wine or Silk, no doubt will remain. The Gems City will be clearly superior at all game phases for a SSC, even in early game... and thus we need to expend even the Treasury to IPRB our 1st settler (to 20s as soon as we can afford it) to speed it up by a turn or 2 before the land barbs start attacking Gems City, which they will. We would likely do the same thing, even if the special is a Pheasant. If it is a fish type, we do not want the SSC in RC, as the pattern will likely mean two fish types will exist in RC and city#5, which is not best for a SSC.

5. If the Archer pops the hut, and we get a Barb, we will lose the Archer to the Barb horse (about 90% or more chance). No reason to risk that!

6. The archer's exploration will not even slow dow by letting the Chariot pop the hut.

 

[Jayne]

Leowind..... Cheers for the answer to my question!!! You learn something new everyday!