v1.52 I like those odds!

[DarkSchneider]

Alright, the new odds calculator is good, and, I imagine, accurate for most battles. However today I had a naval battle where I was quoted as having 143% odds of winning. Hurray! Seriously though, I'm not sure how the calculator handles first strike, but I don't think you can necessarily trust what it says.

 

[Ginger_Ale]

Save? Screenshot? You can't determine how to fix it if you have nothing to work with.

 

[KrikkitTwo]

Maybe you were attacking a workboat?

 

[DarkSchneider]

Sorry, no screenshot, but I'll get one if it happens again. It was a battleship with first-strikes attacking a wounded destroyer.

 

[rsirangelo]

I had more than 100% once...

 

[Smirk]

That means you will definately defeat the unit, and 32% chance of defeating its children.

 

[Taala]

I wonder what the odds say for tank vs. spearman battle.

 

[angeleyes]

I'm not sure how the calculator handles first strike

First strike is in the calculations, my experience ( if this is what you meant).


Asperge

 

[carterba]

In the game I'm currently playing, I've been occasionally seeing odds of >100%. One was as high as 152%. I believe it was a Navy SEAL vs. a Grenadier or something like that. No first strikes involved. I had one with odds of 102%, but I lost! Clearly something's being calculated wrong.

 

[DarkSchneider]

Alright... several weeks later, here is the screenshot.

 

[rho21]

In both screenshots pictured, both sides in the battle had first strike chances... I wonder if this bug is a miscalculation because of this.

 

[karadoc]

The way I see it there are two likely possibilities:
- You have 100% chance of winning, but the way the probability is calculated has resulted in some overflow. ie. there is a point where your unit would have 100% chance of winning, but currently your unit is even tougher than that point and so there is some overflow.
- The probability calculator is inaccurate.

Either way it's a bug.

 

[Roland Johansen]

- You have 100% chance of winning, but the way the probability is calculated has resulted in some overflow. ie. there is a point where your unit would have 100% chance of winning, but currently your unit is even tougher than that point and so there is some overflow.

There is no unit that has a 100% chance of winning against another combat unit (no settlers, workboats, etc.). Even a modern armor with 4-7 first strikes, + 50% combat bonus can theoretically lose to a warrior that has 1 hp left. The chances of that happening are so low that it will probably never occur, but still it could happen and the chances of the tank winning are not 100%.

It's definitely a bug (I haven't seen it personally).

 

[dylnuge]

Yeah, I have had Tank Vs. Spearmen (Classic recreation) with odds like 95 or something, so this seems like a bug (Tank Vs. Wounded Modern Unit should still have lower odds then vs healthy spearman. Most of the pictures showed the enemy unit having 11.2 strength, whereas spearman has 4.5 I think, or something like that).

 

[pnp_dredd]

Both of those tanks have identical promotions. I've never used tanks, so I don't know what the promotions are, but that may have something to do with it.