War with Dnuts?
- Thread starter Chamnix
- Start date
gbno1fan
Emperor
Just so my opinion is out there - I have been convinced by GW's argument that we should declare on the next turn.
I plan on officially voting later today.
I plan on officially voting later today.
@General_W – just to play Devil’s Advocate for a bit… if we are going to close the embassy, then ideally we do it just before the Dnuts are going to steal something. Consider – they can never research anything in less than 4 turns from when they start devoting money to research. All the time they spend with research off saving money to steal is lost to them and permanently increases our tech lead as long as we prevent them from stealing before they actually pull the trigger.
Of course, we have no idea when they are going to pull the trigger. I would guess that if we do not close the embassy this turn, then the Dnuts will probably have enough money for an immediate steal on their next turn but probably not careful or safe. They may not be willing to risk 950 gold for less than a 1/3 chance at a free tech; they may want to save for another turn to get better odds.
Granted, waiting is still a form of Russian Roulette as you described it, but there are reasons to believe that they might not steal right away, and if they are not stealing yet, then waiting to close the embassy has a clear advantage. Even if they do attempt to steal immediately, we are looking at a 68% chance that Dnuts will lose 950 gold for nothing.
I don’t really expect this to change your mind (and I’m not really trying to change anyone’s mind since I haven’t even decided for myself yet), but I thought I’d throw that out there.
Of course, we have no idea when they are going to pull the trigger. I would guess that if we do not close the embassy this turn, then the Dnuts will probably have enough money for an immediate steal on their next turn but probably not careful or safe. They may not be willing to risk 950 gold for less than a 1/3 chance at a free tech; they may want to save for another turn to get better odds.
Granted, waiting is still a form of Russian Roulette as you described it, but there are reasons to believe that they might not steal right away, and if they are not stealing yet, then waiting to close the embassy has a clear advantage. Even if they do attempt to steal immediately, we are looking at a 68% chance that Dnuts will lose 950 gold for nothing.
I don’t really expect this to change your mind (and I’m not really trying to change anyone’s mind since I haven’t even decided for myself yet), but I thought I’d throw that out there.
Interesting point, Chamnix. But we just don't know how much gold KISS can funnel to the DNUTs. Consider:
-We don't close the embassy
-Dnuts amass cash (900?)
-MIA plays t176, save sent to KISS
-KISS gifts DNUTs entire treasury (500 gold? Likely more)
-DNUT amass cash (1800? + 500?), and attempt to steal.
Essentially, DNUTs now have two turns of gold, plus anything that KISS gifts, to use in the operation.
I still say shut it now. Too big of a risk.
-We don't close the embassy
-Dnuts amass cash (900?)
-MIA plays t176, save sent to KISS
-KISS gifts DNUTs entire treasury (500 gold? Likely more)
-DNUT amass cash (1800? + 500?), and attempt to steal.
Essentially, DNUTs now have two turns of gold, plus anything that KISS gifts, to use in the operation.
I still say shut it now. Too big of a risk.
General_W
Councilor & Merlot Noble
You argument does have a certain appeal but 2 things are still holding me back.
1) Delaying their research by a turn does add to our teach lead in the short-term – but the gold the Dnuts accumulate won't go away. As soon as they pick up Espionage, they can spend that money at that time. Since they can steal multiple technologies on a single turn, any time advantage we gain will be immediately lost. Hence – it's not a good reason to take chances.
2) This is totally unsupportable, but like you, I can't remember EVER failing when I stole a technology "safely." It may just be a trick of my mind… because I've only stolen technology rarely. But C3C has other odd bugs like the dumb Scientific Golden age you're supposed to be able to spawn with an SGL.
Anyway – I'd still close the embassy. Am I missing something?
EDIT: x-post with Peter. Well said! Too risky.
1) Delaying their research by a turn does add to our teach lead in the short-term – but the gold the Dnuts accumulate won't go away. As soon as they pick up Espionage, they can spend that money at that time. Since they can steal multiple technologies on a single turn, any time advantage we gain will be immediately lost. Hence – it's not a good reason to take chances.
2) This is totally unsupportable, but like you, I can't remember EVER failing when I stole a technology "safely." It may just be a trick of my mind… because I've only stolen technology rarely. But C3C has other odd bugs like the dumb Scientific Golden age you're supposed to be able to spawn with an SGL.
Anyway – I'd still close the embassy. Am I missing something?
EDIT: x-post with Peter. Well said! Too risky.
fe3333au
Deity
But we will find out how much their gold accumulation has occured when we peak in another cheap city ... the turntaker must then make an educated guess.
I'm all for taking a second peek 
As to the letter, I liked General_W's start, but I'd keep it even more succint and less wishy-washy:
EDIT: should we not give the 10 turns thingy now?
As to the letter, I liked General_W's start, but I'd keep it even more succint and less wishy-washy:
EDIT: should we not give the 10 turns thingy now?
There's something about saying 'we declare war, but this is not an act of war' that I just can't get over
fe3333au
Deity
I have moved that to the Nut Embassy thread
Well, according to the Constitution the Foreign Minister is in charge of declarations of war. The poll hasn't been up for 48 hours, but I can't play the save that time of day, and it appears you have the consent of 3/5 of the citizens (especially since the Foreign Minister was 1 of the "no" votes, and you are certainly entitled to disregard your own vote if you want 
).
So, Mr. Foreign Minister, should I declare? Should I not declare? Or should I declare only if Dnuts have more than X gold (and how much is X?)?
).So, Mr. Foreign Minister, should I declare? Should I not declare? Or should I declare only if Dnuts have more than X gold (and how much is X?)?
fe3333au
Deity
5 to 2 ... 
I expected a little more voting 
<Sigh>
Since we get minimal intel (although getting a turn or two of Nut's economy would be good) from peaking at cities ... and that this turn's peak is the last of the 12 gold (the rest steadily increase)
We Peak and Declare !!!
I will wait for the Black Purse to accumulate a nice weight ... and then when we get Espionage ... Steal a World Map
I expected a little more voting <Sigh>
Since we get minimal intel (although getting a turn or two of Nut's economy would be good) from peaking at cities ... and that this turn's peak is the last of the 12 gold (the rest steadily increase)
We Peak and Declare !!!
I will wait for the Black Purse to accumulate a nice weight ... and then when we get Espionage ... Steal a World Map
donsig
Low level intermediary
General_W said:And as for poor, dear, departed TNT it'd probably be more accurate to describe our position as "hiding behind our honor"
Aptly put and I'd say the results show that honor was indeed a succesful strategic tool.
As for the Nutters, the burned Carpetbomb just to be spiteful. I didn't get to vote in the poll but I say let's wipe 'em out.
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