Why do missionary's fail?

also if you are culturall pressing the opponent city, and that city has the same religion as your state religion, then it increases the revolt chance of that city quite signicantly

By the way, what is the natural prob of a religion spreading to a city w/ no religion?

In the previous posts I read something talking about 100%.
 
Its based on distance from the holy city and whether the shrine is built or not, I believe.
 
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