Coronavirus 3: The Resurgence

[The_J]

Old estimates seem to range 10^-6-10^-4 for RNA viruses https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/19/9733
More recent numbers put it for the SARS coronavirus to 10^-3, same magnitude as influenza, https://bmcevolbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2148-4-21 .
Can't call that really "resistant" I'd say.

Therefore the mutation rate was placed in the range of 0.80 – 2.38 × 10-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year based on the 11 sequences used. This rate, along with the rate of synonymous substitutions estimated in this study, is close to that recently reported using another approach [25]. In comparison to other coronaviruses, this rate is lower than that in the mouse hepatitis virus, similar to that in the transmissible gastroenteritis virus, but higher than that in the infectious bronchitis virus (Table 3) [6–8]. The estimated mutation rate is at the same order of magnitude as in other RNA viruses, for example, 2.3 × 10-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year in the influenza A viruses [12, 13]. The estimated mutation rate in HIV appears to have a wide range [16, 17]. It is likely that the mutation rate in the SARS-CoV is not higher than that in HIV. Therefore, the SARS-CoV is not an unusual coronavirus or RNA virus in terms of its speed of nucleotide changes.

EDIT: Wait, just realized this isn't covid, a second, let me check.

EDIT2: Now a correct source:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32027035/

The estimated mean evolutionary rate for 2019-nCoV ranged from 1.7926 × 10-3 to 1.8266 × 10-3 substitutions per site per year.

same range .

 

[Zelig]

Damn if true it's been around a bit longer.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment...ly-detected-wastewater-samples-002918183.html

March 2019 in Spain.

No, this isn't credible. Please stop linking these random speculations.

EDIT: If you want a doomsday scenario: Humans don't develop lasting immunity against thd common cold (and nobody knows why). Which means that vaccinations don't work.

This isn't strictly true. The common cold is primarily rhinovirus, and the challenge there is the number of strains, not the rate of mutation. Lack of lasting immunity doesn't mean that "vaccinations don't work", it means they don't provide lifetime immunity - which is the case for many successful vaccines anyway.

Why Haven't We Cured the Common Cold Yet?

Moore’s goal is to create a vaccine mix of at least 80 strains, covering the group of rhinovirus serotypes that are the most common and virulent. Unlike the flu virus, Moore says rhinovirus isn’t likely to mutate into new forms—serums created decades ago are still effective against their specific rhinovirus strains today. Once the vaccine is complete, it shouldn’t need much updating. Recently Moore was able to create an effective inoculation with 50 serotypes of rhinovirus, but he doesn’t expect the remaining 30 to come easily. Each new serotype added to the mix costs a significant amount of money and adds complexity to the formula, he says.

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

Ah, yet another chart based on how willingly and effectively they diagnose a freely spreading virus and exploited to persuade you that it’s not this but spreading dynamics and total cases. Planet Earth turned into fakeocracy.

 

[r16]

am an expert on turbolazer turrets , on which ı will never answer questions . So , beyond me to debate what will happen if common cold and coronavirus mixes . But being some loony naturally leads me to think the stupid actions across the globe , always in the face of scientific advice and stuff certainly requires a vaccine to be perfected , you know , before anyone heard anything about that coronathing .

 

[The_J]

This isn't strictly true. The common cold is primarily rhinovirus, and the challenge there is the number of strains, not the rate of mutation. Lack of lasting immunity doesn't mean that "vaccinations don't work", it means they don't provide lifetime immunity - which is the case for many successful vaccines anyway.

Why Haven't We Cured the Common Cold Yet?

True, true, but the cold is also caused by some coronaviruses (e.g. OC43, etc; and other viruses like adenoviruses), and for these the lasting immunity is apparently a problem.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Russia and Saudi are producing oil at a loss right now there was no way the US shale would be able to compete.
Shale oil was always more expensive to produce then pumped oil

Crunch point: A US energy giant files for bankruptcy - and an industry shudders
Chesapeake Energy was a trailblazer that helped transform the global energy market. Its fall shows just how fragile the sector is.
One of the pioneers of the shale oil and gas boom in the US filed for bankruptcy on Sunday (US time). Another former giant of the sector, backed by Warren Buffett, is teetering. There are predictions that US shale companies could have to slash $US300 billion ($437 billion) off the value of their assets this year.
The sector has, it seems, hit a crunch point. It has been assailed by the collapse in oil and gas prices earlier this year as the coronavirus pandemic and a fracturing of the alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia produced a plunge in oil prices.
For the US shale sector, much of which has been funded by the junk bond market in the US, the pandemic is ravaging economics that have always been fragile.

BHP lost about $US20 billion on that foray before it exited the shale industry in 2018 with the $US10.8 billion sale of its assets to BP.
Chesapeake isn’t the only big shale company in trouble. There has already been a spate of bankruptcies, including former high-flyers like Whiting Petroleum and Extraction Oil and Gas. Another of the real heavyweights, Occidental Petroleum, is wobbling.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...and-an-industry-shudders-20200629-p5577i.html

 

[Kyriakos]

True, true, but the cold is also caused by some coronaviruses (e.g. OC43, etc; and other viruses like adenoviruses), and for these the lasting immunity is apparently a problem.

A virus causing observable genetic mutation will be more interesting.

 

[Hrothbern]

A virus causing observable genetic mutation will be more interesting.

You mean causing genetic mutations in human genome ?
(and beyond mutations improving our immune system as defense)

 

[Kyriakos]

You mean causing genetic mutations in human genome ?
(and beyond mutations improving our immune system as defense)

Yes. Crocodile-humans will have a stronger immune system.

 

[The_J]

The human papillomavirus is basically the cause of cervix cancer, so a virus causing genetic mutations already exists .

 

[Kyriakos]

The human papillomavirus is basically the cause of cervix cancer, so a virus causing genetic mutations already exists .

But I mean something with more flamboyant manifestation. Like growing a beak or tentacles.

 

[red_elk]

Like growing a beak or tentacles.

Growing a beak and swallowing rabbit.

 

[Hrothbern]

But I mean something with more flamboyant manifestation. Like growing a beak or tentacles.

It would be good as idea for a Alien like horror movie

babies from infected parents have grown into little monsters.

 

[Kyriakos]

It would be good as idea for a Alien like horror movie

babies from infected parents have grown into little monsters.

Didn't the Zika virus cause cyclopism? That is already pretty hardcore.

 

[Hrothbern]

Zika virus cause cyclopism

From a quick search a lot of effects but (so far searching) no cyclops.
But far too many effects to feel comfortable.

From CDC

Congenital Zika Syndrome
Congenital Zika syndrome is a unique pattern of birth defects and disabilities found among fetuses and babies infected with Zika virus during pregnancy. Although many of the features seen as part of congenital Zika syndrome can be caused by other infections during pregnancy, there is often a pattern of the features below that has been termed congenital Zika syndrome:

• Severe microcephaly where the skull has partially collapsed
• Decreased brain tissue with a specific pattern of brain damage
• Damage (i.e., scarring, pigment changes) to the back of the eye
• Joints with limited range of motion, such as clubfoot
• Too much muscle tone restricting body movement soon after birth

Babies who were infected with Zika before birth may have damage to their eyes and/or the part of their brain that is responsible for vision, which may affect their visual development. Both babies with and without microcephaly can have eye problems. If your baby was born with congenital Zika infection, he or she should receive the recommended screenings and tests to check for eye and other health problems, even if your baby appears healthy.

A recent study in Brazil found that at 19-24 months, babies with congenital Zika virus infection exhibited challenges with sitting independently, feeding, and sleeping. The babies also experienced seizures and hearing and vision problems, such as not responding to the sound of a rattle and not being able to follow a moving object with their eyes. It is important to note that babies affected by Zika virus will continue to require specialized care from many types of healthcare providers and caregivers as they age.

Not all babies born with congenital Zika infection will have all of these problems. Some infants with congenital Zika virus infection who do not have microcephaly at birth may later experience slowed head growth and develop postnatal microcephaly.

Recognizing that Zika is a cause of certain birth defects does not mean that every pregnant woman infected with Zika will have a baby with a birth defect. It means that infection with Zika during pregnancy increases the chances for these problems. Scientists continue to study how Zika virus affects mothers and their children to better understand the full range of potential health problems that Zika virus infection during pregnancy may cause.
https://www.cdc.gov/zika/healtheffects/birth_defects.html

 

[Kyriakos]

Severe microcephaly is ok, but cyclopism is more impressive.

 

[Kyriakos]

Maybe there are some interesting mutations in India, cause there if you are born with four hands, in some village, under some circumstances you are viewed as a god.

Also, apparently there is a relatively common mutation in Britain, where people are born with less phalanxes in their fingers. The rest possibly went for a mercenary gig in Persia, and never returned.

 

[Hrothbern]

How do I read this news from China ?

A new strain of flu which has the potential to become pandemic has been identified in China by scientists.

It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.

The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.

They say it has "all the hallmarks" of being highly adapted to infect humans - and needs close monitoring.

As it's new, people could have little or no immunity to the virus.

Pandemic threat
A bad new strain of influenza is among the top disease threats that experts are watching for, even as the world attempts to bring to an end the current coronavirus pandemic.

The last pandemic flu the world encountered - the swine flu outbreak of 2009 that began in Mexico - was less deadly than initially feared, largely because many older people had some immunity to it, probably because of its similarity to other flu viruses that had circulated years before.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704

And as side note:
The sooner we get rid of mass "production" of meat from animals the better.

Besides converting agriculture towards bio-eco products, it's about time we speed up protein manufacturing in reactors for the mass demand.

 

[Zelig]

There's already enough non-meat protein supply.

 

[Naktis]

So next wave is coming? How many more waves will be ?

I actually start to believe Sweden method of "fighting" this virus is best. Untill enough people get immunity, the waves wont stop.