Political Philosophy discussion

Edit1: { Btw, how many of you caught the news of how one member of the Ukrainian Peace talk delegation was executed by SBU between the first and second rounds of peace talks?
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4831656/ukraine-peace-negotiator-spy-shot-russia-kireev/
Small update on this story in case anyone is interested:

Edit: looks like WSJ has some paywall that I didn't notice when posting this: here's the article in full: https://www.webull.com/news/8018479239207936
 
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We can't accept the idea that life is just a byproduct of chaos. "Hail discordia" and all that nonsense. Anyone here has played Drowned God, that old 90s conspiracy theory game?
In some part of omniverse this mod tech tree is reality then ;)
That is intelligent design caused itself to exist.

I doubt that universe was created and manipulated like all works of fiction.

No, but all statistics show that there is beyond a high probability that we have been interacting with an advanced intelligence and if we have been all along, then why haven't they invaded? Easiest answer is they've owned us all along. It would make absolute sense they wouldn't want us to understand that.

Further, it is not 'holes' in our understanding, it is how dots connect that simply make more sense when you see it from that angle.

Honestly, to me, Occum's Razer says we are just blind and ignorant pets in a planetary antfarm basically.
You want to believe in God, you just prefer polytheism and some other early belief forms.
You can as well believe, that Kang the Conqueror keeps this timeline intact :D
 
Even if that was not how we got here, I'd bet that if our progress continues and we manage to become a space faring civilization we will eventually recreate a new universe from the ashes of the old one. Just like in that story from Asimov, the collapsing universe.
Or, we'll create simulations over simulations and get lost in there forever.

We just have to navigate between the "God is dead" phase and "we are God now" phase. Kinda the worst time to be alive in a sense, as we are fully responsible of our own future.
 
Death and life are in the power of the tongue...
 
Heh, Yellen is a bit slow on the uptake it seems.
16th April 2023: https://www.barrons.com/news/yellen-says-sanctions-may-risk-hegemony-of-us-dollar-479c564f

14th April 2022, a year before that I said this:
The sanction regime the west is putting on Russia just serves to alienate the entire global south and ends up isolating Europe and the US as much as it isolates Russia. We are practically sanctioning ourselves in this case, the ruble is as strong today as it was the 24'th of February and there's little signs of hyperinflation hitting Russia (The Euro has actually fallen compared to the Ruble). We are also in the process of destroying the petrodollar, the global community seems to be shifting away from the old tradition of conducting all international trade in USD, the USD being the global reserve currency might be nearing its end. Arab oil countries are considering the Yuan to be a more reliable currency to use for international trade, India and China both consider trading with Russia using Rubles rather than dollars, Europe is most likely being forced into skipping the dollar in their trade with Russia as well. So the time when the US can infinitely print dollars to supports its humongous debt without it causing great inflation may soon be over. Countries around the world is observing that having dollar reserves in US controlled banks is a risky business as the west has a bad tendency of stealing the reserve if they feel the owner isn't subservient enough, its done it to Venezuela, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia and others. This serves to undermine the general trust in the USD as the safest currency to invest in.
 
Heh, Yellen is a bit slow on the uptake it seems.
16th April 2023: https://www.barrons.com/news/yellen-says-sanctions-may-risk-hegemony-of-us-dollar-479c564f

14th April 2022, a year before that I said this:
Yeah, but that's half the idea of the point of the war. This was the strategy to get us to walk into this as a trap all along. They simply didn't want to SAY it outloud too early because they wanted to see the plan come together more solidly because numerous nations that were THINKING about breaking the petrodollar anyhow needed to see that it was a reality that they could form a separate trade bloc successfully before they would be more tempted to go over. They didn't announce this right away because to do so would make it obvious this was the goal where now other nations that are getting onboard can still say they sorta thought of it as their idea to do so rather than thinking of it as what Russia was planning all along. I mean, Putin HAD to have a clear plan as to what was going to happen when put out in the cold... they had gamed that thing out a while back and saw that this was the moment to create an opposing global alliance. This is what makes all this so incredibly dangerous because as the battle lines get drawn and harden, we're beginning to see a much clearer conflict with a rather 'fair' global balance of power. Maybe in the end that could be a good thing but it certainly puts us a much farther distance from a total end to conflict and final world peace and much closer to a catastrophic war at some point. Blame whoever you will, they were never going to side with us without putting up what fight they could.
 
I used to think Eurodollars were one of those fictional ideas way too far removed to ever look plausible. It's starting to look less so.
 
Yeah, but that's half the idea of the point of the war. This was the strategy to get us to walk into this as a trap all along. They simply didn't want to SAY it outloud too early because they wanted to see the plan come together more solidly because numerous nations that were THINKING about breaking the petrodollar anyhow needed to see that it was a reality that they could form a separate trade bloc successfully before they would be more tempted to go over. They didn't announce this right away because to do so would make it obvious this was the goal where now other nations that are getting onboard can still say they sorta thought of it as their idea to do so rather than thinking of it as what Russia was planning all along. I mean, Putin HAD to have a clear plan as to what was going to happen when put out in the cold... they had gamed that thing out a while back and saw that this was the moment to create an opposing global alliance. This is what makes all this so incredibly dangerous because as the battle lines get drawn and harden, we're beginning to see a much clearer conflict with a rather 'fair' global balance of power. Maybe in the end that could be a good thing but it certainly puts us a much farther distance from a total end to conflict and final world peace and much closer to a catastrophic war at some point. Blame whoever you will, they were never going to side with us without putting up what fight they could.

I'm not sure if that was Putin's intended strategy in this war, he clearly wanted to conquer Ukraine as soon as possible. Brics replacing the reserve status of the dollar is merely a side quest he always wanted to achieve but didn't know how until finally he realized that the war dragging on could be spun in such a way to make the United States look bad by blaming them for causing "instability" (a trigger word for the Chinese I may say) by refusing to stop sending weapons to Zelensky to expediate the peace process.

It's basically making the most of a recent defeat and trying to spin it around into a later victory.
 
Too many westerners have been moralizing this war on social media to neutral peoples from other nations who don't care often in such a patronizing and condescending way that they are willing to slowly come to Russia's side as it all drags on due to disliking the whole tone of these kind of people.

What's worse is a lot of this social media/moralizing tone is being used by actual western diplomats when they negotiate with non-western politicians. Forcing them to pick a side over the issue especially when they would probably prefer that the discussions taking place be over something more relevant to their respective nations.
 
he clearly wanted to conquer Ukraine as soon as possible.
How did you arrive at that conclusion?

Sending in 180 000 ground troops against 250 000 defenders doesn't seem like a good setup for quickly conquering a very well equipped and trained opponent. LPR and DPR militias numbered about 70 000 men, but they were ill equipped for offensives. The very soft approach the Russians had in Feb/March last year, avoiding direct confrontations and taking a different path when meeting resistance, while using very few missiles and artillery in the first month of the intervention is a strange strategy if one wanted to conquer the entire nation quickly (not that artillery is quick, but it takes time to defeat Europe's biggest and best equipped army which was heavily entrenched, and one can't do it without a lot of firepower actually being used for a long time). To quickly overrun entrenched positions it's commonly thought that one needs a decent numerical superiority, if one lacks that then one need to pummel the enemy for a long time with superior firepower instead.
Spoiler Tangent :

To me it seems that Russia was prepared for a long conflict (their logistic was well prepared in advance clear by Russia's huge and steady artillery shell usage since negotiations broke down in early April last year; around 40 000 shells per day on average, Ukraine has spent on average 5 000 shells per day, they also set up quite extensive medical camps all around Ukraine in Russia before the 24th of Feb. 22), but that they would give Ukraine every opportunity to negotiate, starting off soft and escalating the pressure/violence gradually as time pass by and it becomes clear that Ukraine has made a thoroughly conscious and well considered choice that they want war rather than to make concessions in regards to Donbas and Crimea, and neutrality and such. There was likely a hope in Russian minds that if they showed Ukraine that they were serious about their 8 years of displeasure towards the civil war on their borders, by sending troops into Ukraine, that Ukraine would finally come to its senses and some agreement could be reached without the conflict getting out of hand as it has, but Russia must have gamed out the possibility that this would likely not come to fruition.

When Ukraine did a large offensive in late August (after having mobilized many hundreds of thousands of men) then that was a clear message to Russia that Ukraine wanted more war, so Russia responded by mobilizing 300 000 troops, and they also raised 100 000 volunteers, and wagner recruited about 20 000 from Russia's prisons (and they likely stepped up their recruiting efforts in the general population). Now from what I've seen these 300 000 who were mobilized from Russia's 2 million reserve have not been used much in offensive actions, from what I've heard the Chechens, wagner, the LPR/DPR militias (who are now integrated as Russian irregular divisions) and Russia's special forces like marine and airborne forces are the ones who push the front line (since April last year they have only pushed the front line within Donbas), while the regular Russian army has mostly held the line on the calmer frontlines and at the second or third line of defense.

When Ukraine attempted to sabotage the prestigious Kerch bridge with a suicide bomber, on Putin's birthday no less, did Russia finally decide to attack Ukraine's main infrastructure and use a lot of missiles (to the big surprise to everyone who claimed Russia was all out of missiles in late March and every month since). Zelensky also signed a presidential decree making negotiations with Russia an impossibility less than a week before the Kerch sabotage, the decree is still in effect.

The last month or so Russia started to use cheap guided 250 and 500 Kg glide bombs (of which they have a huge amount of in storage), these are as devastating as the most expensive missiles Russia has used in Ukraine up until this point, and they have 1500 and 3000 Kg glide bombs too (they can now drop these bombs with impunity as the missile and drone assault since Oct. has depleted Ukraine's once massive anti-air defense defense (worlds most capable anti air defense, after Russia's anti-air defense that is), so that Russian bomber planes can now safely drop such bombs which has a meager 30-40 Km range without risking being shot down as Ukraine's long range anti air systems are either used up or stationed too far from the front lines to hit anything 30-40 Km on the other side of the front line). Russia can still escalate the pressure/violence further, but they will likely do it slowly to give Ukraine as many chances as possible to come back to the negotiating table.
That got pretty long, hope we can focus on my initial question about how you reached that specific conclusion, and not get too distracted by disagreement over the tangent that came after it. I'm curious about what could be your reasoning behind why it's clear to you that Russia attempted to conquer Ukraine quickly.
 
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That got pretty long, hope we can focus on my initial question about how you reached that specific conclusion, and not get too distracted by disagreement over the tangent that came after it. I'm curious about what could be your reasoning behind why it's clear to you that Russia attempted to conquer Ukraine quickly.

Precisely because Putin in the first month or so beelined straight to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, in an attempt to surround and cut it off in what appeared to be a siege thus meaning most likely there was an attempt to actually capture the city itself.

You don't capture your enemies capital unless you intend to conquer the country for either regime change and the installment of a puppet or total capitulation and subsequent annexation. A feint attack designed to cause Ukrainians to withdraw from the Donbas seems unlikely as far too many troops died (or rather were sacrificed if one is truly to believe it was a real feint) on the road into and subsequent withdrawal out of a few months later. There is one exception that could make it a legitimate feint attack and I'll explain this lower down. 👇

Also far too many of Putin's military was dedicated from the get go to this attempted capital siege. If one were to believe it was meant to be a low intensity intervention, then logically one would have to conclude most of his forces in the opening attack should have been dedicated to securing only the Donbas.

Got that? Ok!👌 This is where we sorta dive into conspiracy territory, as a willing attempt to deceive (and in a somewhat malicious way) is the only way whereby one could conclude the attempted siege of Kiev was indeed a feint attack. Not a feint attack mind you to cause the Ukrainians to withdraw their forces, but because Putin needed a strategy that would force Ukraine to escalate to such a degree he could politically vilify them domestically so as to convince the Russian people that annexation of all of Ukraine rather than merely securing the Donbas as the only acceptable solution to bring about peace. In other words he intentionally botches the initial attack, gets his own soldiers killed by the enemy to increase domestic anger and use that to justify conscription to gain the numbers necessary for a full occupation and conquest of the whole nation. Remember that Russians before as well as Ukrainians themselves even believed an initial invasion to be impossible as they still believed themselves to be Slavic brothers before the attack blaming local politicians instead for what was going on in Ukraine since 2014, so Russians themselves would not outright be open to total conquest and destruction of their neighbor unless they were willingly vilified through an endless tit for tat escalation whereby they could be convinced that annexation of the whole of Ukraine to be the final solution.

However this would assume a Machiavellian ruthlessness of Putin to intentionally sabotage his own army for later and greater personal gain. To be Machiavellian one has to be intelligent and a deceiver, but at the same time it is also easy for others to simply proclaim someone as a Machiavellian to cover up legitimate mistakes which they've made in an attempt to make them seem less foolish than they really are in a high stakes gamble to then attempt to turn the initial failure into a later victory. I tend to lean on the later that he was indeed the fool and failed, yet he wishes he was a perfect and ferocious godlike Machiavellian, simply because the absolute risk of being exposed by those closest to you that you manipulated your initial attack force and intentionally betrayed them for later personal gain is too risky. If exposed one would have to face the nation with extreme calls to step down, some may even want your head for treason! In Russia we all know how people end up if they are accused of even the slightest amount of potential treason.

Therefore in my personal opinion the least risk option would be to attack Kiev foolishly believing one had enough forces to take it from the get go and assume the Ukrainians were a paper tiger similar to the Afghan forces also trained by the United States and they would flee and abandon the Zelensky regime in an instant. This then in turn means overthrow of Zelensky's government was there from the start, which then means that either a puppet regime replacing Zelensky that would be more favorable to Russia or outright annexation by Russia was the intended goal rather than a small scale special military operation.
 
He attacked rather early in the spring. He did so without shock and awe in the least. Never assume you're dealing with incompetence rather than malicious intelligence designed to look incompetent, particularly from a stronger foe.
a strategy that would force Ukraine to escalate to such a degree he could politically vilify them domestically so as to convince the Russian people that annexation of all of Ukraine rather than merely securing the Donbas as the only acceptable solution to bring about peace. In other words he intentionally botches the initial attack, gets his own soldiers killed by the enemy to increase domestic anger and use that to justify conscription to gain the numbers necessary for a full occupation and conquest of the whole nation
I'd say you nailed it here and it's an international impression effort. He can desensitize and somewhat disarm many by letting this war become a new normal, rearrange the world based on the growing polarization of political ideas about it, including the economic point I made, and sacrifice his outdated equipment while inspiring his own industrial war machine (largely an international conglomeration of some of the most productive industrial nations in the world) to modernize the machinery that without a long term conflict would be difficult to justify without tipping his hand to intelligence agencies far too long before conflict would've otherwise begun. Through a prolonged war, he can train a large amount of troops onsite, eliminate internal opposition movements by selecting who gets to see the front of the war, galvanizes the surviving units, makes himself appear 'measured' and 'balanced' and more 'justified' in his approach as he then responds by greater militarization and builds up an even more overwhelming force without causing greater alarm in neighbors (if anything, getting them to think this thing will go on forever since it will be hard to imagine how it will be when UKR folds and install a growing confidence they never will.)

So when he has a nice flow of equipment coming in and a healthy trade system set up to sell his resource assets to those trade partners, he'll be in a better position than ever to push through and hit yet more targets and this thing really gets the show on the road. I give it a year or two still before he truly gives it that push. In the meantime, the west will have sacrificed more without replacement than the Russians and their allies and will in fact have drained more resources overall. (Thinking they just need to buy a bit more time and resist a bit longer before this thing will eventually burn out.)

To me, when he DID attack Kiev, it was hard to believe how incompetent that attack was carried out that it would fail so fantastically as it did when the game was so stacked in his favor. I found that pretty sus.
 
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To me, when he DID attack Kiev, it was hard to believe how incompetent that attack was carried out that it would fail so fantastically as it did when the game was so stacked in his favor. I found that pretty sus.

Yes but in situations when one can not precisely say Occam's Razor applies. That means one looks for more typical possibilities that are bland as they are more likely to occur, "horses rather than zebras".

The current Western logic is one predicated on explaining the war via a "horse" (Putin and the Russians are simply incompetent) as that would be the most bland/stereotypical thing to happen rather than a "zebra" (Putin intentionally sacrificed his troops in an opening battle he knew they could not win so as to socially engineer his own nation into a war footing and convince the masses that peace can only be had if they totally destroy their Ukrainian brothers and no longer view them as such but rather fascists).
 
Yeah see the one bit that doesn't make sense is that they'd be cool with massive casualties. That is what gives away the incompetence for me. Some countries nowadays are facing a severe demographic crunch, including Russia, and losing manpower like they did is simply not acceptable.
 
Yes but in situations when one can not precisely say Occam's Razor applies. That means one looks for more typical possibilities that are bland as they are more likely to occur, "horses rather than zebras".

The current Western logic is one predicated on explaining the war via a "horse" (Putin and the Russians are simply incompetent) as that would be the most bland/stereotypical thing to happen rather than a "zebra" (Putin intentionally sacrificed his troops in an opening battle he knew they could not win so as to socially engineer his own nation into a war footing and convince the masses that peace can only be had if they totally destroy their Ukrainian brothers and no longer view them as such but rather fascists).
Yeah conspiracy theorists believe in unicorns.
Bigger stuff can fail more spectacularly just because they can.
 
Yeah conspiracy theorists believe in unicorns.
Bigger stuff can fail more spectacularly just because they can.

So there's horses, zebras, and now unicorns?

But exclusively between horses and zebras, if something happens it is usually a much safer bet to presume whatever occured was due to a horse since that is still more likely to occur than even a zebra.

The burdon of proof is therefore on the person who proclaims a zebra, they must show multiple examples of evidence that it simply under no circumstances could have possibly been a horse.

The burden is even higher for those who proclaim a unicorn as they must first provide evidence that it could not possibly be a horse and subsequently provide additional evidence that it could not possibly be a zebra.

🐴>🦓>🦄 >🐲
 
Plus Grice's Razor - instead of focusing on the literal meaning of words one should focus on the context in which the words were used.

And the Sagan Standard - extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
 
Precisely because Putin in the first month or so beelined straight to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, in an attempt to surround and cut it off in what appeared to be a siege thus meaning most likely there was an attempt to actually capture the city itself.

You don't capture your enemies capital unless you intend to conquer the country for either regime change and the installment of a puppet or total capitulation and subsequent annexation. A feint attack designed to cause Ukrainians to withdraw from the Donbas seems unlikely as far too many troops died (or rather were sacrificed if one is truly to believe it was a real feint) on the road into and subsequent withdrawal out of a few months later. There is one exception that could make it a legitimate feint attack and I'll explain this lower down. 👇

Also far too many of Putin's military was dedicated from the get go to this attempted capital siege.
Hmm, I wouldn't exactly call it a beeline, the column that headed for Kiev took its sweet time (it got within artillery range to Kiev fast enough, but the column stayed put without deploying its artillery and MLRS for a long time, as if it had orders not to really engage anything seriously (just like all the other forces Russia sent into northern Ukraine in Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkov which all avoided confrontations, in total this northern advancement likely numbered about 75 thousand troops, but in no way could a large enough portion of them ignore the entire northern front to focus on Kiev to plausibly threaten the city)), as if it were giving Ukraine time to reinforce Kiev with some of their best equipped and trained troops. Also, it is unlikely that the 15 000 troops Russia sent towards Kiev in that long column everyone were focused on would even outnumber the defenders of the city (one really needs a 3 to 1 ratio when sieging and taking a city). I think the main reason why Russia took a land area of the size of Southern England in southern Ukraine (most of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and Lugansk) in the first three weeks was a lot due to the chaos, confusion, and uncertainty that the northern advancement caused within Ukrainian decision making, they couldn't afford underestimating the Russian troop count there or risk losing the capital, so they were forced to hastily reposition more than they likely needed towards Kiev. About 10 000 Ukrainian troops got surrounded in Mariupol and Mariupol was likely one of the main strategic objective for the start of the Intervention seeing as it was a key city within Donbas which the anti-maidan movement initially had a strong foothold in, and it was the city that hosted the Azov regiment's headquarter, making it a very symbolic city for the DPR. Other main objectives was probably to open the water canal in the Kherson region which supplied Crimea with 80% of its fresh water before Kiev closed it off in 2014 to dry out Crimea (they had to strictly ration water for 8 years); as well as establishing a land bridge between Rostov and northern Crimea. In Kherson Russia captured military bases filled with ammunition and equipment which the Ukrainian defenders had hastily withdrawn from.

I mean, if Russia were only interested in defeating Ukraine fast then they would have launched missile strikes on key civilian infrastructure and decision making centers from day one to paralyze Ukraine, not give Ukraine 7 months to change its mind before doing it. Russia don't want to wreck Ukraine, but there seems to be no other choice available to them, and no, withdrawing is not a viable choice (from the Russian perspective, which is the one that matters when it comes to Russian decision-making) as for example millions of Ukrainians have changed nationality by now, and they face severe punishment if Ukraine comes back which means they would keep on resisting the invasion of western Ukrainians invaders just like they did the 8 years before Russia intervened on their behalf. Seems more like Russia had not prepared anything that could possibly bring the conflict to a quick resolution, while having prepared enough to maintain the conflict for a long time with some confidence.
Spoiler Anecdotes :
730 000 Ukrainians fled to Russia and specifically requested protection in the first 4 months of Kiev's military assault on the population of Donbas (area of ca 6 million people at that time) between April and August 2014 according to the UNHCR. Ukraine also began bombing civilian city centers with their air force in early June 2014. Many also don't know that a large portion of Ukraine's army took side with the population of Donbas and another large portion refused to follow orders back in the early days of the conflict, a bit later (May) the nationalistic volunteer battalions were sent into Donbas to do what the regular army failed to do and the consequence of that was almost 10% of the population of Donbas fleeing to Russia (Much worse than the civil war in Serbia which lead up to the NATO bombing and redrawing of the political map there). It's insane that the entire west supported Kiev in attacking its own population like this back then and that we still support this crusade to this day. Celebrating the victory over the Third Reich has been de facto illegal in Ukraine since 2014, and Russia has already started offering the population of the annexed areas universal health care, something Ukraine has never had, pensions are also a lot bigger in Russia than they are in Ukraine, and the population there will be allowed to have regional national languages (Russia has 35 regional languages, Ukraine wants to get rid of regional languages entirely. Crimea has today three official languages, i.e. pupils get to chose what language to have their education in, Russian (85%*), Tartarian (8%*) and Ukrainian (3%*)). *percentage who has it as native language in Crimea.

Therefore in my personal opinion the least risk option would be to attack Kiev foolishly believing one had enough forces to take it from the get go and assume the Ukrainians were a paper tiger similar to the Afghan forces also trained by the United States and they would flee and abandon the Zelensky regime in an instant. This then in turn means overthrow of Zelensky's government was there from the start, which then means that either a puppet regime replacing Zelensky that would be more favorable to Russia or outright annexation by Russia was the intended goal rather than a small scale special military operation.
That might have been a distant hope, as well as there possibility that Ukraine would choose to make concessions akin to the Minsk 2 agreement which they previously agreed to rather than chose war with Russia when it became obvious that Russia was not kidding in regards to the long winded conflict. I agree that Russia had probably a "too good to be true" plan (call it plan A) that aimed for an unlikely quick resolution, but they clearly had plan B's and C's for what to do when plan A would eventually fail. The Ukrainian army can't be compared with the Afghan one though, the Afghan army was just leeching money from the US, it was an good job opportunity for the the impoverished Afghan men from uneducated villages, their commanders were mostly corrupt (and it was not uncommon for them to be drug addicts) and so were the US personnel in charge of building up the Afghan Army, the Afghan Army had shown time and time again that they were not motivated to fight against the nationalists when confronted, that they were mostly hiding behind the security provided by US presence, and had no sense of patriotism and discipline within its rank, seeing itself as subordinate to the US rather than to their own country. The Ukrainian army however was war hardened, extremely nationalistic, disciplined and had been waging war on their own population for 8 years, so these guys were not afraid of confrontations and violence and horror, and Russia must have been aware of Ukraine's willingness to fight having seen their fanaticism on display for years right across their borders (heck, they have practically the same national culture and mentality, both Russians and Ukrainians are known to not back down when faced with conflict, death and violence, they are both corrupt, patriarchic, mainly Christian orthodox and culturally conservative in general).
 
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