Hmm (seems very conspiratorial), I guess time will show, Ukraine seems to be going towards an unconditional surrender as they refuse to negotiate and has all along been aiming for total victory or total defeat. Russia didn't annex any land when Georgia surrendered in 2008, though I'm sure the map will be redrawn in this peace agreement, but I would think Russia would leave western Ukraine as a rump state in the end as Russia hasn't shown any signs to be interested in ruling those who don't want to be ruled by Russia.
Political Philosophy discussion
- Thread starter pepper2000
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Thunderbrd
C2C War Dog
Sure, unless the loss of manpower can be used to leverage national sentiment of anger, and be used to cleanse the military of a growing complacency and disruptive undercurrents that were coalescing among the forces. Particularly when you have long term plans that rely on deals made with nations with incredible amounts of manpower that would help with reinforcements because that resource is to them so plentiful as to be effectively endless. Again, all part of the global pool hustle.
I wouldn't write off the possibility this is the case, no, BUT if it is, we have nothing to be concerned about really, and I don't get that sense of things. I'd love to be proven wrong. I only speak towards the other potential and that we shouldn't assume idiocy when it can so deceptively be the case that underestimation is the exact trap we're expected to fall into which disarms us by complacency.
Half of people have IQ below 100 by definition. Also its not fully correlated with wealth or charisma.
This means you can easily end up with rich charismatic idiots breaking things for their own gain.
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
Yes, and it got totally obliterated. The Spetznatz fleeing into the forest, the VDV dying on the Hostemel Airport.
Ok. Then why was the column taking it's sweet time if not for incompetence among the Russians?
If time was of the essence you would think they would take Kiev asap, no?
So this proves incompetence and that things have not been going according to plan because they should have taken the capital and done so seriously if they knew Ukraine was that much of a threat.
Thunderbrd
C2C War Dog
Ok, sure assume what you will about a normal person, (take the average intelligence and then realize that half the world is stupider than that!) but we're talking about world leaders here, particularly one who's been one of the most pre-eminent rising stars in the KGB. At one point, literally declared the wealthiest man on the planet. Took a nightmare economy and shattered nation and forged it back to a force to be reckoned in a couple of decades. You don't achieve all that being an idiot who doesn't play the game (whatever game it may be) turns ahead of 99% of opponents.
It's all going according to plan. Begin with that assumption whenever you face a foe and if you're wrong and they ARE incompetent, it's all the more to your fortune that you didn't assume otherwise.
Hell, an average C2C player would've known you don't pit a column of vehicles up against guerilla style rocket infantry without protecting your column with standard rifle armed infantrymen, leaving your flanks exposed to forested terrain as you go. If there's only ONE THING we knew and the whole world knew, and PUTIN and his generals knew about the UKR forces pre-invasion, they'd been well supplied with one thing - rocket infantry weaponry from the US. How publicized WAS that? Javelins this, Javelins that - you heard it for years so this basic mistake cannot possibly be mundane idiocy.
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L + Ratio + Corruption + Skill issue.
Raw strength is not everything.
Also according to your religion it can be grandkids of your grandkids of your grandkids tormenting some ruskies.
That is transhuman time travelers are possible in that mod.
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Maltazard
Prince
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2008
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It's also worth remembering the machiavellian prince is not the one with the perfect plan, it's the one capable of turning misfortune into opportunity: we failed our first wave, so now we readjust and make the most out of it and make it look like it was actually part of the plan. Now how do you figure if it's machiavellian opportunism or legitimately a megamind-like strategy taking place? You can't, that's the beauty of it.
On the other hand, the US intelligence knows way more than it gives away. I doubt our strategy is so short sighted. In fact I reckon this Ukraine thing is considered a side plate or an entrée at best in a larger play that goes all the way to 2030 or so by both sides to consolidate their positions.
I was hoping we'd see a tripartite powers arrangement such as in 1984, with constant shifting equilibriums, since opposing diads are way more focused on direct confrontation and it only ends when one either surrenders or dies.
On the other hand, the US intelligence knows way more than it gives away. I doubt our strategy is so short sighted. In fact I reckon this Ukraine thing is considered a side plate or an entrée at best in a larger play that goes all the way to 2030 or so by both sides to consolidate their positions.
I was hoping we'd see a tripartite powers arrangement such as in 1984, with constant shifting equilibriums, since opposing diads are way more focused on direct confrontation and it only ends when one either surrenders or dies.
Median =/= Arithmetic mean
Obliterated is an exaggeration, the column of ca 15 000 troops that entered Ukraine around the 28th of Feb. and drove slowly towards Kiev, after 4 days of meeting no resistance it had the 4th of March reached a point 30 km from Kiev and there it stopped and would stay in place until it left in late March. It went untouched for several weeks, and a lot of people were wondering why Ukraine wasn't trying to strike the column (seeing it as a juicy target) with drones, missiles or by other means (Russian air defense systems were protecting the column, and the column had enough artillery with it to make Ukraine think twice about engaging it in artillery duels). By the 11th of March some of the artillery and MLRS from the column had dispersed from the column to take up defensive positions in the general area and in late March most of the column that drove in drove out again. They surely suffered some losses from Ukrainian skirmishes against it, and Ukraine probably suffered losses too in these small confrontations.
The first group of some 700 VDV that attacked the Hostomel Airport secured it from the 300 Ukrainian national guardsmen garrisoned there on the 24th of February but got later in the day repelled by the Ukrainian 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade (some 2000 men with tank and artillery) which counter attacked them with heavy artillery and air support. The next day Russia took the airport with another wave of unknown numbers, Ukraine claimed they killed 60-80 VDV troops in this 2 day battle, we know nothing about the Ukrainian losses. Russia held the airport until they left it to everyones surprise some time in late March (satellite imagery from 28th of March showed that the airport was empty and Ukrainian forces recaptured the empty airport the 2nd of April.
As I said, I think its main purpose was to cause confusion in Ukrainian ranks, to intimidate Ukraine into accepting the Russian demands, to show that this was no game and that refusing these demands will mean real conflict with Russia. I think they had orders not to go fast, had orders not to engage, they barely utilized the column's firepower in the month it was north-west of Kiev. Negotiations, that begun perhaps because of the column presence close to Kiev, broke down in late March and was the reason why the column was pulled out of the Kiev area, as it was needed on the real front in the east (15 000 men deep within the Kiev Oblast would not have the capability to advance and would in time be overwhelmed if it tried to stay put due to Ukrainians getting organized in defense through massive mobilizations and time to prepare/organize).
It doesn't prove anything much, I guess it indicates that the Russian gambit on reaching a negotiated resolution within a couple months did not have the desired effect, nothing goes according to plan in war which is why there are fallback plans. If time was of the essence like you say where Kiev would have to be taken quickly (which would have lead a historical city which means a lot to Russians in ruins), then I would have thought Russia would have prepared more than 15 000 men to advance on Kiev when they have 2 million reserves to draw from (of which none had been drawn at all at this point). Cities are not taken quickly unless you have a huge numerical superiority, just look at the battles of Aleppo or Mosul; in Mosul 100 000 troops had to fight for 9 months to take the city against 10 000 insurgents, it was a 10 to 1 numerical superiority (and they also had a vast firepower superiority), the siege of Aleppo was between similar sized forces, 28 000 besiegers against 23 000 insurgents and it took 4 years and only broke out of the stalemate due to Russian air support in the last couple years of the siege. Russia didn't want to have to make Kiev into some Aleppo Ruin, and they still don't want to do that, they still want a negotiated end to this conflict but Ukraine would rather suffer total defeat (forcing Russia to do what it don't want to do tp spite them), or get a total victory (which is close to an impossibility and has been since the start). A quick end to this conflict was never in the cards, and I think Russia was well aware that the possibility of one was slim to none, but they had to try.
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
Precisely.
Thunderbrd
C2C War Dog
Completely agree. The measured response to just send weapons and supplies and no actual engagements of our own has been an enormously disciplined strategy to avoid giving the excuses I think this whole play has been begging for.
That is a bit idealized, the Gauss distribution is so much easier to understand than anything with skewness or kurtosis that this is often simplified away (just like non-linear aspects are often done away with via Taylor expansion).
If you go in a bit deeper it becomes evident that the IQ distribution cannot be perfectly symmetric because it is cut off on the left side. If there is even a single case with an IQ > 200, there cannot be a matching case on the left side.
Thunderbrd
C2C War Dog
Wouldn't even think one would need to say half of this except that 1/3d to a half of all Americans attack and actively disagree with these statements. Does that mean half to 1/3d of Americans lack empathy? hmm. Then you say we should not change. Sadly, this is an effort to get us to because it's a necessary one.
I think mix of y'all being full of microplastics, without healthcare for sizeable enough fraction of population, with social/mass media polarization, and propaganda isn't too healthy.
Also that "do not change" is more of a joke because of memes you make.
Europe needs functional US, currently its very slowly turning into something similar to authoritarian backwards regimes like Russia, China, or tons of nations in Middle East and elsewhere.
We don't need return of Victorian ethics.
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
How to turn basic human decency into religion:
View attachment 663268
How to turn standard issue empathy into manifesto:
View attachment 663269
Never change, goofy ah Americans.
What if someone went like that into Nordics or Afganistan?
Black Lives Matter should be the purple one. Just saying.
We still only have confirmed minimum numbers on the Russian side as Ukraine keeps a tight lid on information through strict marshal laws.
Mediazona in collaboration with the BBC has been running a count of confirmed Russian deaths (they erroneously write casualties but mean KIA, casualties technically includes anyone who got wounded, and could include the same person multiple times) for about a year now. It's current count is at 30 003.
Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated
Nearly 49,300 deaths confirmed by March 29
en.zona.media
Ukraine likely have about 5-7 times higher casualties than Russia due to the firepower difference, so I would assume a minimum Ukrainian KIA count to be at 150 000, and that's a pretty conservative estimate. It is indirectly collaborated by the multitudes of reports we are getting about the forced mobilization in Ukraine month after month, their losses are very high.
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