25th of February 2022:
27'th of February 2022:
02'nd of March 2022:
Information about the peace process in March 2022 have begun to come out:
Felt it was time to return to this old discussion as it is becoming relevant again. Don't care if no one wants to reply and it becomes the epilogue to the discussion or whatever; I know no one here takes me seriously on this topic anyhow.
Secure the territory of the two republics is an obvious one.
Perhaps an end to the 8 year long war waged right outside their borders.
(Or at least enforce a ceasefire agreement after securing the territory of the republics and disabling the regime forces military enough for them to not be able to break a ceasefire with confidence.)Demilitarize an unfriendly militant neighbour.
Guarantees that Ukraine will remain neutral, stop seeking NATO membership, in return for security guarantees from Russia. (Hopefully, Russia will be willing to allow Ukraine independence as well, I can't see any plausible deal that doesn't involve that)
27'th of February 2022:
We have mislead them to believe that they had NATO firmly in their corner (boxing terminology), and that they should have a confrontational and uncompromising line against Moscow; while in reality we have been throwing them under the bus from the start. The more likely explanation is that none of the western leaders who has been cheering on Ukraine and its decisions since 2014 had any idea where it would lead or what dangerous game was being played.
Now we throw them further under the bus by actively trying to prolong the war by telling them they can win and further sending weapons their way, and as Maltazard expressed in a post above, it looks like many western nations hope Ukraine will be the next Afghanistan, we really do hate Ukrainians here in the west don't we, if the long game TB said western leaders were playing is an intentional and planned sacrifice of Ukraine.
02'nd of March 2022:
The west is indeed motivating Ukraine to fight to the last man, when the sensible thing would be to give them cause to consider peace.
Ukraine is in no position to demand Russian surrender at this point.
It's a question of how long before Ukraine surrender, and the more offers they refuse, the worse the offer is gonna get. The first real offer is still being haggled about the way I see, and unless they agree to do a round 3, we will know the first offer soon.
So if you were the Ukrainian leader, you would rather let Kiev, among other cities, be burned to the ground than to accept a minor loss of contended territory, and a demilitarization akin to what Japan "suffered"?
(hypothetical being that this is not an existential war for Ukraine, that Russia's demands indeed are as reasonable as has currently been presented)
I heard the same, and in addition that Ukraine must recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk republics.
The denazify aspect is still a bit of a mystery, if it is a point of focus in the peace talks, then it could be a demand that Ukraine restrict, prosecute, or outright outlaw certain ultra nationalistic organizations, like the Azov battalion, Svoboda, Right Sector, OUN, С14, etc. Perhaps also to make it illegal to glorify Bandera.
Ukraine on the other hand demands that Russia hand back Crimea and retracts their recognition of Donets and Lugansk as independent Republics.
Completely unrealistic, Russia simply cannot accept defeat in this situation
Second round of talks are underway, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainian leadership is prepared to sacrifice its civilian population and society just to spite Russia.
Ukraine, when addressing the west, demands that the west, as their "ally", start a nuclear war with Russia (paraphrasing, cause that's what a more direct western involvement means), while the west says that Ukraine clearly must have misunderstood our intentions if they thought we would fight Russia alongside them when the time came.
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬if indeed this is an existential war for Ukraine, I'm sure the peace talks are well documented and will shed light on that question sooner rather than later.
Information about the peace process in March 2022 have begun to come out:
Spoiler Early February 2023 :
Spoiler November 10, 2023 :
Michael von der Schulenburg, Hajo Funke, Harald Kujat - Peace For Ukraine - Brave New Europe
The disastrous derailment of early peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations, and shortly [...]
braveneweurope.com
Spoiler November 2023 :
Spoiler Told you so, sh*ts and giggles (and crying as it is a tragedy) :
Told you so youtube link
▬▬▬
On the point I made about "the more offers they refuse, the worse the offer is gonna get" back in March 2022: First it was the Minsk agreement that Kiev refused for 8 years, the deal got worse in late February 2022 as rather than to federalize and keep control of Donets and Lugansk as autonomous subjects like the Minsk agreement stipulated, it now had lost Lugansk and Donetsk when Russia recognized their independence and came to their aid.
In late September 2022, the minimum demands changed to include giving away Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts
So now Russia's minimum demands include that Ukraine recognize 5 of its oblasts as Russian, and it will very likely include demands for referendum to be held in many south-eastern oblasts like Kharkov, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy among others. Referendum about their future (Independence, Russia or whatever is left of Ukraine), and quite a few might actually prefer being part of Russia rather than the economical disaster Ukraine in its heavy debt has become. If Ukraine continues to refuse negotiations (if it keeps the 4'th of October 2022 presidential decree in place that criminalize negotiations with Russia), then Russia will likely take Kharkov and possibly more oblasts by force during the summer of 2024, and then the minimum demand will grow ever bigger again.
▬▬▬
On the point I made about "the more offers they refuse, the worse the offer is gonna get" back in March 2022: First it was the Minsk agreement that Kiev refused for 8 years, the deal got worse in late February 2022 as rather than to federalize and keep control of Donets and Lugansk as autonomous subjects like the Minsk agreement stipulated, it now had lost Lugansk and Donetsk when Russia recognized their independence and came to their aid.
In late September 2022, the minimum demands changed to include giving away Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts
So now Russia's minimum demands include that Ukraine recognize 5 of its oblasts as Russian, and it will very likely include demands for referendum to be held in many south-eastern oblasts like Kharkov, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy among others. Referendum about their future (Independence, Russia or whatever is left of Ukraine), and quite a few might actually prefer being part of Russia rather than the economical disaster Ukraine in its heavy debt has become. If Ukraine continues to refuse negotiations (if it keeps the 4'th of October 2022 presidential decree in place that criminalize negotiations with Russia), then Russia will likely take Kharkov and possibly more oblasts by force during the summer of 2024, and then the minimum demand will grow ever bigger again.
Last edited: