[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: War News Thread: Round 6

[Snowygerry]

Support is firm now, but Ukraine and West have different end goals: Ignatieff​

Western leaders required to consider post-war geopolitical situation, former Liberal leader says (...)

That assumes "The West" is united in its "end goals", which is not the case either.

What we have is a large coalition of nations that all have their own reasons to oppose Russian aggression in Ukraine, to different degrees.

Anyone of them can change at any moment. Ukraine itself is an outlier obviously - they're simply fighting for survival.

 

[red_elk]

Ukraine never claimed the goal was to destroy or collapse Russia's state. "Winning" for them is restoring the country in 1991 borders, as they repeatedly stated.
Which is indeed a different goal than survival.

 

[Zardnaar]

Ukraine never claimed the goal was to destroy or collapse Russia's state. "Winning" for them is restoring the country in 1991 borders, as they repeatedly stated.
Which is indeed a different goal than survival.

Nope it's more online speculation.
I don't think it's even a stated goal of any country aiding Ukraine. Even Poland and Baltics.

 

[EvaDK]

Depends on the scale of Ukraine victory. Putins humiliated frozen conflict, Russia can stew in its on juices.

Putin maintaining a hot or frozen conflict in Ukraine, presumes Russia has the funds to keep the war going indefinitely. Russia doesn't, as it was revealed in the budget for January 2023.
The coalition of nations aiding Ukraine militarily and economically, produce a combined GDP some 20 times that of Russias GDP, which itself is projected to contract significantly in 2023 alone.

 

[Zardnaar]

Putin maintaining a frozen conflict in Ukraine, presumes Russia has the funds to keep the war going indefinitely. Russia doesn't, as it was revealed in the budget for January 2023.
The coalition of nations aiding Ukraine militarily and economically, produce a combined GDP some 20 times that of Russias GDP, which itself is projected to contract significantly in 2023 alone.

I'm aware but its not direct aid, proportionally only a fraction reaches Ukraine using Ukraine manpower.

Even if Russia goes "broke" they can dig in and print money etc. Election year next year in USA.

So basically until the war is resolved one way or another I wouldn't be making to many predictions.

 

[EvaDK]

So basically until the war is resolved one way or another I wouldn't be making to many predictions.

I agree.

However, Russia's National Wealth Fund is financing Putin's war at the moment (the January budget confirmed this) and it will run dry sometime this year. After that, Putin will have to close hospitals, schools and other public services, or simply stop paying wages to public servants and military staff. Russia is becoming a Stalinist/North Korea hybrid state.

 

[Zardnaar]

I agree.

However, Russia's National Wealth Fund is financing Putin's war at the moment (the January budget confirmed this) and it will run dry sometime this year. After that, Putin will have to close hospitals, schools and other public services, or simply stop paying wages to public servants and military staff. Russia is becoming a Stalinist/North Korea hybrid state.

Or they print money and worry about the after effects later. That can buy a year or two before it hurts.

Borrowing from China isn't impossible to rule out either.

Not great options I admit but they're there and possible.

 

[really]

Printing money when combined with the budget and sanctions would probably be felt very quickly by ordinary people - expectation of inflation would be self fulfilling.
There is hard currency coming into the country but it is probably going out again just as quickly - it isn't in the hands of ordinary people.

I doubt it would be Weimar but the context would be the same.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Nazis in Ukraine are worried

Kyiv says forces fighting on in 'utter hell' of Bakhmut battle

Ukraine said on Monday its troops were still fighting against the attempted encirclement of Bakhmut, while Washington said that even if the eastern city should fall to Russia's offensive, it would not necessarily give Moscow momentum in the war.

www.reuters.com

"For now, we are trying to figure out the reason: is it just ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal," Prigozhin, referring to the absence of ammunition, said in his press service Telegram channel on Sunday.

The mercenary chief regularly criticises Russia's defence chiefs and top generals. Last month, he accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and others of "treason" for withholding supplies of munitions to his men.

meanwhile, Donetsk, 1 day ago: A woman and two children were killed in Russian mortar shelling of a village in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson

 

[Akka]

Nazis in Ukraine are worried

Kyiv says forces fighting on in 'utter hell' of Bakhmut battle

Ukraine said on Monday its troops were still fighting against the attempted encirclement of Bakhmut, while Washington said that even if the eastern city should fall to Russia's offensive, it would not necessarily give Moscow momentum in the war.

www.reuters.com

meanwhile, Donetsk, 1 day ago: A woman and two children were killed in Russian mortar shelling of a village in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson

Remember :
When 20 civilians are killed in a year in a war, it's Ukrainian genocide of innocent population.
When 80 000 civilians are killed in a year in a war, it's regrettable collateral damage during a justified Russian intervention to protect said civilian population.

 

[Yeekim]

I hope this guy is right- I think in the event he probably will prove to be right. The outcome to be avoided more than any other is the disintegration of the Russian state. Too many warheads then can't be kept track of.

Replace RF with British Empire (EDIT: or with USSR) and reflect on how insane that sounds.

 

[Senethro]

Replace RF with British Empire (EDIT: or with USSR) and reflect on how insane that sounds.

Nukes are kind of a game changer. I think Lex's statement stands. The reality is repugnant but shouldn't be ignored.

 

[Yeekim]

Nukes are kind of a game changer. I think Lex's statement stands. The reality is repugnant but shouldn't be ignored.

What is the fear exactly? That someone hijacks a nuclear sub and... does what?

 

[Broken_Erika]

What is the fear exactly? That someone hijacks a nuclear sub and... does what?

More like someone steals a small nuclear warhead and it ends up in the hands of a terrorist group.

 

[Yeekim]

More like someone steals a small nuclear warhead and it ends up in the hands of a terrorist group.

The entire RF nuclear arsenal is already in the hands of a terrorist group.

 

[Gorbles]

The entire RF nuclear arsenal is already in the hands of a terrorist group.

Russia is a state and thus relatively bound by MAD. Putin is posturing on it and has been, but there's a fundamental difference between that and any third-party who may not care for MAD because they're not beholden to a particular landmass.

If Russia launched nukes, everyone would know they did it. If some random terrorist does it, we don't. Which is also a massively frightening prospect but I try not to think too much about it.

 

[Yeekim]

Russia is a state and thus relatively bound by MAD. Putin is posturing on it and has been, but there's a fundamental difference between that and any third-party who may not care for MAD because they're not beholden to a particular landmass.

If Russia launched nukes, everyone would know they did it. If some random terrorist does it, we don't. Which is also a massively frightening prospect but I try not to think too much about it.

Allegedly, hundreds of "suitcase nukes" "went missing" when USSR dissolved.

Suitcase nuclear device - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I for one doubt they ever existed in the first place. If they did, I doubt they've been maintained to be useable after 60 years. If they have been, the risks of them ending up in the hands of crazy Jihadists due to dissolution of Russian colonial empire feel greatly exaggerated.

 

[Senethro]

Allegedly, hundreds of "suitcase nukes" "went missing" when USSR dissolved.

Suitcase nuclear device - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I for one doubt they ever existed in the first place. If they did, I doubt they've been maintained to be useable after 60 years. If they have been, the risks of them ending up in the hands of crazy Jihadists due to dissolution of Russian colonial empire feel greatly exaggerated.

So what?

 

[Remorseless1]

The real worry is not a state manufactured nuclear explosive. It's dirty bombs, built with nuclear material, fitted with a small explosive charge, that it radiates a small portion of a major city, spreading panic throughout the rest of the urban area.

 

[Lexicus]

Replace RF with British Empire (EDIT: or with USSR) and reflect on how insane that sounds.

It doesn't sound insane at all. Neither the British Empire nor the USSR "disintegrated" in the sense I mean, as in a collapse into anarchy.

Also, lol, imagine hating Russians so much that you act blasé about loose nukes.