Scientists create deadly strain of influenza virus, apocalypse averted... for now

[The_J]

It's actually pretty scary. I also work in biology, and I'd have to say that it would be actually rather easy for me to manufacture a custom virus.

-> as i said: Inside job.
It's another thing if you're an outsider. Then you don't know where to get the machines and chemicals, and if you're not ordering from a lab or company, then you'll directly be suspicious.

What is moderately scary is the inherent dual use of biotechnology. In nuclear industry, it is relatively easy to make sure someone isn't building a bomb (although it's sometimes problematic to persuade people who don't want to be persuaded, see the Iran controversy).

Really?

Swedish authorities have detained a man who attempted to build a nuclear reactor in his kitchen, Helsingborgs Dagblad reported Tuesday.

[...]
The unnamed enthusiast brought radioactive materials, as well as a Geiger counter which he ordered from the US. He also dismantled smoke detectors, which contain small amounts of nuclear material.

David Charles Hahn (born October 30, 1976), also called the "Radioactive Boy Scout" or the "Nuclear Boy Scout", is an American who attempted to build a homemade breeder nuclear reactor in 1994, at age 17. A scout in the Boy Scouts of America, Hahn conducted his experiments in secret in a backyard shed at his mother's house in Commerce Township, Michigan. While not successful in creating a nuclear reactor, Hahn attracted the attention of local police who found radioactive materials in the trunk of his car. His mother's property was cleaned up by the Environmental Protection Agency ten months later as a Superfund cleanup site. Hahn attained Eagle Scout rank in the Boy Scouts of America prior to the creation of his reactor.

I guess even for nuclear things it's not that easy to prevent anyone from building anything.

 

[SS-18 ICBM]

What's your problem? Because I am sick of your attitude. I never said or implied anything that would need any "correcting" by you.

I think it started when you implied their research could have caused an apocalypse...you know, buying into media sensationalism. That's a pet peeve of mine. Yes, scientists couldn't care any less about the security of their research and could one day end us all because there are absolutely no such things as ethics committees and regulatory oversight in science. None. At. All.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Wouldn't this be a moot point, in all practicality, because those atomic weapons already exist and in number?

I don't think so. Protecting things of a material nature is a lot easier than to protect knowledge.

@Polycrates
I don't think it to be likely either that some official lab would create a killer virus with malicious intend. But I do think it to be likely that someone out there would like to, for whatever twisted reasons. People just can be crazy maniacs.
And to me it seems also that the equipment necessary can find its way into a black market without that much trouble. In contrast to say enriched uranium, that's just too basic biological science stuff to not to I figure. And when the knowledge isn't really containable either... I figure at some point someone will eventually do it.

 

[GoodGame]

I think this quote from Article #1 in the OP lays the foundation of my opinion:

According to Mark Wheelis of the University of California, Fouchier's work is a good example of, "the need for a robust and independent system of PRIOR review and approval of potentially dangerous experiments...Blocking publication may provide some small increment of safety, but it will be very modest compared to the benefits of not doing the work in the first place."

Authoritative peer review prior to the experiment is very important when there is a risk to human subjects, lots of general risk/danger, etc... And it should be robust and independent (less chance of financial concerns affecting the experiment, or the review of the experiment). Robust so there is less chance of a critical failing in the review (e.g. some asked to review with only passing background knowledge, missing details etc).

 

[Polycrates]

@Polycrates
I don't think it to be likely either that some official lab would create a killer virus with malicious intend. But I do think it to be likely that someone out there would like to, for whatever twisted reasons. People just can be crazy maniacs.
And to me it seems also that the equipment necessary can find its way into a black market without that much trouble. In contrast to say enriched uranium, that's just too basic biological science stuff to not to I figure. And when the knowledge isn't really containable either... I figure at some point someone will eventually do it.

Yeah no question that any individual item is probably easy enough to obtain (equipment or consumable). But to be able to do this, you'd have to set up what is effectively a real lab, and there's hundreds of day-to-day scientific items you need to be able to do that. A lot of them with relatively short shelf lives, as well. I just think it would be immensely hard to get that many specific items, originally sourced from that many different suppliers, without getting tripped up. Plus you'd need a constant supply of CO2, a constant supply of liquid nitrogen, and you'd need to dispose of an awful lot of very suspicious-looking waste. You'd also need to obtain primers that were designed specifically for your own project, and you'd need pretty constant access to a sequencing service - both of which are going to be very hard when you're not a listed institution, and also when either of them can (and perhaps would routinely) punch your sequences into a database like BLAST and find the top matching result is always "H5N1 avian influenza virus".

Just seems like there's waaaaaaay too many steps and stumbling blocks for somebody not to get tipped off along the way.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

There is always a time and place to get to know a new one. And now imagine how long that will take while people are dieing and the economy crumples.

As I recall, the process is not so complicated. It just involves treating the virus with some inactivating agent, such as formalyn, which kills it. You could wiki it, I suppose. Considering this is done every year, I don't think it'll be a particularly difficult venture.

That's a very dire scenario to be sure, but I suspect it is not that hard to make such a surface antigen mutate if one can create such a killer virus in the first place.

The joke's on you. The virus already does that frequently in the wild.

 

[mechaerik]

David Charles Hahn (born October 30, 1976), also called the "Radioactive Boy Scout" or the "Nuclear Boy Scout", is an American who attempted to build a homemade breeder nuclear reactor in 1994, at age 17. A scout in the Boy Scouts of America, Hahn conducted his experiments in secret in a backyard shed at his mother's house in Commerce Township, Michigan. While not successful in creating a nuclear reactor, Hahn attracted the attention of local police who found radioactive materials in the trunk of his car. His mother's property was cleaned up by the Environmental Protection Agency ten months later as a Superfund cleanup site. Hahn attained Eagle Scout rank in the Boy Scouts of America prior to the creation of his reactor.

If he had succeeded, that would be worth way more of a medal than helping old ladies cross the street.

 

[Winner]

I think it started when you implied their research could have caused an apocalypse...you know, buying into media sensationalism. That's a pet peeve of mine. Yes, scientists couldn't care any less about the security of their research and could one day end us all because there are absolutely no such things as ethics committees and regulatory oversight in science. None. At. All.

Keep attacking that strawman.

-> as i said: Inside job.

That's why I mentioned background checks. We don't usually allow just anyone to have a gun (at least here in Europe), so I think it would be appropriate to closely monitor just who can get close to the kind of research that could potentially lead to a release of a very dangerous infectious agent.

Really?

I guess even for nuclear things it's not that easy to prevent anyone from building anything.[/QUOTE]

Did any of these guys built a nuke? No. Were they even close? No.

Fiddling with a nuclear stuff is of course seriously dangerous, and I guess a lone wolf maniac could potentially build a "dirty bomb", but building a nuclear bomb is a whole other league.

On the other hand, producing a biological weapon of immense destructive potential is easier by several orders of magnitude.

 

[SS-18 ICBM]

Keep attacking that strawman.

When you use provocative, misleading titles, expect to be called out on it.

That's why I mentioned background checks. We don't usually allow just anyone to have a gun (at least here in Europe), so I think it would be appropriate to closely monitor just who can get close to the kind of research that could potentially lead to a release of a very dangerous infectious agent.

BSL-3 and higher labs require such checks. Once again, you have no absolutely idea of what actual labs do and yet you keep presuming to talk about how such labs in general conduct biosecurity. And you have the gall to accuse me of putting up strawmen.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

The joke's on you. The virus already does that frequently in the wild.

I know that! But if you take an already existing virus and manipulate it to attack humans, you may want to manipulate it further to not risk that there already is a vaccine produced which can be used. But maybe this is also a natural product of manipulating the virus in the first place. I don't know.

Just seems like there's waaaaaaay too many steps and stumbling blocks for somebody not to get tipped off along the way.

Well - I hope you are right.

 

[Yeekim]

2) If it's so easy to recombine influenza strains in order to create deadly forms of it, how come no terrorist group has done it yet? Are the jihadist too stupid to do this, or do they just need more time?

Have you seen Four Lions?