The attack on Syria

[innonimatu]

They do think we are stupid. And this seems to have been a limited attack to save face, after all the propaganda and pressure in the media.

The political intrigues within the UK and US establishment can still get us all killed some day...

 

[Ajidica]

Surprised you didn't include the French in there given your hate-boner for the French.

 

[Berzerker]

Trump mocks telling the enemy of coming attacks and then tells the enemy of his coming attack

 

[Lemon Merchant]

A little gallows humor.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The most likely outcome is "inconclusive and claimed as success by both sides." The US can, and most likely will since they have to up their game from the last strike, launch a few hundred missiles. S-400 will get some, and Putin will talk about those. Others will get through and blow stuff up in Syria. Trump will talk about those. Is there some limits on this outcome? If only 10% of the missiles are brought down do you think Putin wouldn't claim victory? If only 10% get through do you think that Trump won't? Short of 100% one way or the other the outcome will be "victory" on both sides.

Okay, I'm officially eating it on this post. The preliminary statements from both sides:

US claims they used twice as much firepower as last time, and had active involvement by allies. There's no reason to think they would overstate firepower used. Maybe the 'twice as much' meant total among the allies, but it seems like the bare minimum is about 120 missiles fired. Syria claims that they intercepted and downed thirteen missiles. The US is of course scoffing at this, but accepting it as true that's still about a 10% success rate of interception.

I did say that a ten percent success rate would allow Putin to claim victory for his air defense system...but in the bright light of it really being 10% it looks a lot harder to base a victory claim on that result.

 

[innonimatu]

Surprised you didn't include the French in there given your hate-boner for the French.

My fear of the french you mean? Their establishment is still very united, and they make fewer mistakes.

 

[red_elk]

@red_elk, how do you think this is going?

Bad. Hope at least Russia reacts responsibly.

So has the Russian government officially retracted their asinine theory that MH17 was brought down by a Ukrainian warplane/ it was brought down by a Buk fired by Ukrainian separatists? Unless something very significant has happened in Russia, Almaz-Antey is not the government of the Russian Federation.

It would be strange if government version differ from version of experts sent by the government for investigation.

 

[Ajidica]

It would be strange if government version differ from version of experts sent by the government for investigation.

That isn't a confirmation that the Russian government has retracted its position that MH17 was downed by a Ukrainian warplane.

View attachment 493360
A little gallows humor.

 

[innonimatu]

Bad. Hope at least Russia reacts responsibly.

Judging from the latest statement from the ambassador, I think - hope - they are only going to bomb the remnants of the rebel enclaves. The US bombs russias' syrians, Russia bombs the US's syrians... by mutual accord.

It would be farcical if people weren't dying.

 

[Bootstoots]

Hey remember when all those people on here told us Trump was a pacifist and Clinton a dangerous warmonger who wanted to start world war 3 with Russia over Syria.

You actual idiots.

How do you think Clinton would respond to chemical weapon use, if she were president now? Especially a second use as in this case? If this does turn out to be a one-night strike against a relatively small number of targets, it's smaller than what I would expect her response to be - a sustained campaign of strikes not unlike the Libyan intervention, although smaller in scale and intended duration. Any sustained campaign would be much harder for Putin not to respond to.

Not that Trump isn't a dangerous warmonger as well, of course. This could very easily spiral out of control, especially if he starts seeing this as a reliable way to direct coverage away from his scandals, or if Bolton gets him to launch more attacks in the future.

 

[red_elk]

That isn't a confirmation that the Russian government has retracted its position that MH17 was downed by a Ukrainian warplane.

I don't remember it was ever presented as official position, only voiced as one of possible versions before investigation started.

 

[Bootstoots]

I don't remember it was ever presented as official position, only voiced as one of possible versions before investigation started.

Russia doesn't really seem to be in the business of having official positions on those sorts of things, so much as smokescreens of large numbers of 'alternative' theories for people to pick and choose from. It's a much more effective tactic for the post-truth era.

 

[BirraImperial]

I hope this doesn't escalate any further and that it was a "slap in the wrist" attack...Risking a full scale confrontation over what seems like a false flag attack is very risky and stupid to say the least...

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I hope this doesn't escalate any further and that it was a "slap in the wrist" attack...Risking a full scale confrontation over what seems like a false flag attack is very risky and stupid to say the least...

How about over "what seems like there is a sliver of a chance that maybe it was a false flag attack"?

By the way, can we put some sort of lid on the escalation panic? The Russians aren't leaving any personnel that they would be willing to go to war with the US over standing around the target zones, and even with an idiot in the white house the US military isn't going to start a war with Russia over an intercepted missile. As someone cynically said, the US will blow up Russia's pet Syrians and the Russians will retaliate by blowing up the west's pet Syrians and the only people who will really care are Syrians, who no one really gives a damn about anyway.

 

[Tahuti]

I guess Syria is just being used as the intelligence collection/training ground in preparation for when the "big one" finally kicks off.

So the Syrian Civil War is the Spanish Civil War of World War III?

C'est possible, though go figure similar cases like Vietnam.

 

[BirraImperial]

How about over "what seems like there is a sliver of a chance that maybe it was a false flag attack"?

By the way, can we put some sort of lid on the escalation panic? The Russians aren't leaving any personnel that they would be willing to go to war with the US over standing around the target zones, and even with an idiot in the white house the US military isn't going to start a war with Russia over an intercepted missile. As someone cynically said, the US will blow up Russia's pet Syrians and the Russians will retaliate by blowing up the west's pet Syrians and the only people who will really care are Syrians, who no one really gives a damn about anyway.

You're right, perhaps we're overreacting here...Maybe the US even informed the Russians prior to the strikes, just like last year, and this is indeed a "slap in the wrist" to Syria...
About the chemical weapons attack, I just don't buy the "official" story of Assad gassing his own people against his interests...He's about to win the war, why would he piss off the West now? Who would benefit more from a hypothetical US invasion of Syria? Those are the questions that need answers...

 

[Timsup2nothin]

You're right, perhaps we're overreacting here...Maybe the US even informed the Russians prior to the strikes, just like last year, and this is indeed a "slap in the wrist" to Syria...
About the chemical weapons attack, I just don't buy the "official" story of Assad gassing his own people against his interests...He's about to win the war, why would he piss off the West now? Who would benefit more from a hypothetical US invasion of Syria? Those are the questions that need answers...

He's been gassing his own people right along. He's laid off the Sarin and stuck to Chlorine, and there may be a case to be made that this retaliation was over just another use of Chlorine gas with an unsubstantiated claim of Sarin use...but "false flag" is beyond reason.

 

[Zkribbler]

They do think we are stupid. And this seems to have been a limited attack ...

One R&D facility; two storage facilities.
None of them anywhere near Russian AA defenses.
Anything hit by Syrian AA defenses were probably jet-powered cruise missiles.

What I find most curious is the lack of firm evidence that the triggering atrocity was a nerve-gas attack. Most likely, it was a chlorine-gas attack. But 23 previous chlorine gassing drew no response. Why now?

 

[BirraImperial]

He's been gassing his own people right along. He's laid off the Sarin and stuck to Chlorine, and there may be a case to be made that this retaliation was over just another use of Chlorine gas with an unsubstantiated claim of Sarin use...but "false flag" is beyond reason.

Why would Assad risk a US invasion against his own interests? One would think someone that has managed to stay in power for so long wouldn't make a mistake like that...There's also no evidence that the attack was actually made by Syrian government forces...

 

[Berzerker]

Mattis says this was a one time shot

Is he telling Syria and Russia we wont do this again?