%99.9 Chance of Victory???

[sabo]

Ok, I had a panzer attack a weakened Tank, I had a %99.9 chance of Victory and I LOST the panzer, not only that but I didn't weaken the Tank one bit. This happened to me last week too when I had a %99.9 chance of victory and lost the unit. Is the Civ engine faulty? Has anyone else had this happen to you, or is it just my bad luck?

 

[Sian]

neither is the engine faulty or you're having bad luck

the 99,9% chance means 99,9% chance ... ie. 1 in 1000 you'll die ... two times within a week is very much believable for the RNG

 

[Patak]

It happened to me at 99,7%, never on 99,8% or 99,9%. Even that is not so frustrating as when I attack 5 times in a row with chanses of 87% and lose all 5 units.

 

[kosiosko 1]

on one of the MODS there was an option for logging your troops naming them etc. it gave you a screen like your advisors

Anyhow apart from your best promoted, etc it also logged Best Victory by unit agaist worse odds And Worse defeat against best odds ---- so yes it happens, not often but some GAMES just seem unlucky, because you were UNLUCKY

I've turned that off in Options, can't remember the MOD, Came package with either GEM or CARTIERS? WORLD MAP

 

[sabo]

It reminds me of the old Civ III days when spearmen destroy tanks...

At least I haven't seen that yet in civ IV

 

[JP1]

Yeah, those tiny win chances come through every once in a while, and it's noticeable if you're a warmonger. Just recently lost a 99.8% chance, a pikeman lost to a wounded Chariot without doing any damage to it.

 

[Cjreynol]

Yea, this is totally legit. That's the thing with the RNG, it goes both ways. So luckily it goes my way sometimes too and I win at those 4% odds with no damage

 

[kosiosko 1]

It reminds me of the old Civ III days when spearmen destroy tanks...

At least I haven't seen that yet in civ IV

civ one spearmen sank battleships if they stop next to one on the coast-- it got soyou wouldn't even finish you turn next to the coast if it had a EMPTY road in it

 

[katipunero]

all is fair in love and war and CIV RNG. welcome to the club!

 

[6K Man]

I hate losing units that way, but I win combats at low percentages too. Most of us don't often attack when the odds are below 20%, so we see a lot more losses at high percentages than we see wins at low percentages.

Last night my damaged L10 Destroyer (C5, DII, MedicI, Blitz) was attacked by a healthy Malian Battleship. It survived despite having less than a 10% chance of winning. I was pleased.

2 turns later, it died versus a Chinese Frigate despite having close to double the strength of the Frigate. C'est la guerre.

 

[vhhawk]

Indeed. I just lost a missile cruiser, fully loaded with missiles and baby nukes, at 90.7% odds against a damaged destroyer. I figured I had more important things to use those missiles for. Lesson learned.... (Granted 90.7 is not nearly the odds as 99.9, I know.)

 

[Callonia]

Whenever I lose units to 99.9% odd chances, I chalk it up to that unit having a rambo in it.

That singlehandlely wiped out my army in that battle.

It is quite a common occurance XD

I lose my lvl 6 units this way very often.

 

[capnvonbaron]

The worst odds I can remember losing to were 99.1%. I cry BS, of course, but it helps to remember the times I've won battles at <15% odds, or siege/mounted retreats with odds lower than <10%, etc.

Worst odds I've ever beat, IIRC, was a warrior vs archer garrisoned in an enemy capital early in the game. It was <5%, but I figured what the heck, I have another warrior about to pop out. My warrior won, the civ was destroyed, I had room to expand my own empire, and the warrior was promoted to 6XP

 

[Bushface]

When you lose at long odds or win with very poor odds, check the Combat Log. Usually this will then show a long series of consecutive hits by the weaker unit, gradually whittling the opponent to death. All this means is that you've hit a streak of "bad" or "good" results from the RNG, and these things do (and should) happen.

 

[sabo]

When you lose at long odds or win with very poor odds, check the Combat Log. Usually this will then show a long series of consecutive hits by the weaker unit, gradually whittling the opponent to death. All this means is that you've hit a streak of "bad" or "good" results from the RNG, and these things do (and should) happen.

Good point Bushface

 

[deanej]

When you lose at long odds or win with very poor odds, check the Combat Log. Usually this will then show a long series of consecutive hits by the weaker unit, gradually whittling the opponent to death. All this means is that you've hit a streak of "bad" or "good" results from the RNG, and these things do (and should) happen.

I don't agree. Civ should have something to prevent you from losing once your odds pass something like 98%. Likewise, you should be guaranteed to at least do a little damage unless your odds are very low. Right now it's very difficult to take cities because that one longbow in the city will never take even one point of damage and decimate your stack.

 

[Junuxx]

 

[dirtyparrot]

Don't worry, I've heard of people losing at 100% odds. Just be glad you didn't lose your super medic.

 

[deanej]

I think only vanilla rounds up to 100%.

 

[sabo]

I don't agree. Civ should have something to prevent you from losing once your odds pass something like 98%.

I guess every once in a while a Russian Partisan will take out a Tiger tank