About a tech in the game, probability theory (?)

[stationery2]

When you complete researching probability theory, you hear the narration of Sheng Ji Yang, saying that 'Not only God plays dice, but he has load of it' or something like that.
Someone tell me what the probability theory is and what that quote is suposed to mean?

 

[Lefty Scaevola]

Einstein, in a comment disagreeing with the randomness in Quantum Mechanics said "God does not play dice" (this quote in also in the game, with the secree prohect The Supercollider". Sheng Jis quote is a take off on that. "the dice are loaded" means the that someone has alterted the dice to make some numbers more probalble than others, or allegorically that some inteligence is tampering with the probalbilities.

 

[stationery2]

Um.. could you explain in a simpler language please??
So are you saying that Sheng Ji Yang is says that evrything occures at random chances?

 

[Gargantua]

As Lefty Scaevola said, Quantum Mechanics is based on probability theory. Rolling the dice is the simplest example of how probability theory works- every number has equal chances to appear.
Quantum mechanics basically states that there is no way of saying exatly how any system will behave, one can only calculate chances. It was too weird theory at that times , so many people either didnt understand it or didnt accept. Einstein couldnt accept that nature is based on probabilities, and there is no way of predicting exactly what will happen, so in famous argument with Niels Bohr (who created Quant. mech.) he said "God does not play dice ".
To answer your question: Chairman Yang's words "Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." mean that situation is slightly complicated, namely world is ruled by probabilities, but not in trivial way

By the way, speaking of quotes, its probably the best part in the game, almost every quote has deep and beautiful meaning..

 

[stationery2]

every number has equal chances to appear

Does it? Isn't it dependant on the force you gave to the dice, material of the dice and surface it lands, the quality of the air, gravity, size of the dice and all that?
What I mean is dice is not random.
Anyway, whih theroy is right?
Einstein or probability?

 

[Gargantua]

Originally posted by stationery2

Does it? Isn't it dependant on the force you gave to the dice, material of the dice and surface it lands, the quality of the air, gravity, size of the dice and all that?
What I mean is dice is not random.
Anyway, whih theroy is right?
Einstein or probability?

Yes you are right, that would be not perfect dice
But the idea of probability theory is that in ideal situation when everything is perfect, material surface air etc, every number has equal chances. Any other situation as the non perfect dice you mentioned is based on this simple idea. Now,Chairman Yang's words mean this simple idea is not quite right, the dice even in perfect ideal conditions "are loaded" He didnt mean imperfect surface material, but something beyond that

Probability theory is right as being pure mathematical one. Einstein didnt have alternative to Quantum Mechanics theory, he just didnt understand it.

 

[stationery2]

Huh.... Still hard.
Highschool physics is as close as I got to physics.
It's so hard to understand. Not only this, but also all the other scientific concepts and theories in SMAC.
Okey. I'll try to rephrase what you guys said.
So, Einstein said that if the condition was perfect, everything has equal chance of occuring like the faces of dice. But what Sheng Ji Yang says is that one can temper with that and make the chance of certain result more likely to happen. Is this right? Tell me if I'm wrong.

 

[Lefty Scaevola]

No Eistein said there were no dice at all. Events , including sub atomic events, were determined by causes. Sheng Ji says there is the radomness of quantum mechanics in sub atomic events, but but there is a posibility of skewing the the probability equations.

 

[stationery2]

Ok. So opposite of what I said.
Thanks.

 

['Copter Pilot]

Does it? Isn't it dependant on the force you gave to the dice, material of the dice and surface it lands, the quality of the air, gravity, size of the dice and all that?
What I mean is dice is not random.

Of course the dice will roll a more or less determined path, but this path is influenced by the movements of your hand (mainly), other things like airflow in the room, etc. Since you cannot control your hand precisely enough, you cannot predict which face the die will land on, so it is 'random' (i.e. what is 'random' are the movements of your hand).

 

[MajorGeneral2]

Who says you don't learn anything from video games?

 

[Sukenis]

I allways took the quote as Sheng Ji Yang making fun of Eistein. Sheng Ji Yang is an Atheist while Eistein believed in a God. Eistein did not believe in probability mechanics becasue that would imply that God had no control. Sheng Ji Yang being an atheist was stating what you say (the probabilities can be manipulated) and if there was a God he was "cheating" just like man was.

This make any sense?

 

[dguichar]

Of course a perfect die is random, but you can "guess" which number will come. Sort of presee the result... and there are many real people that can do it, it's called ESP (extra-sensorial perception).
The fact in the words of Yang is that god has the ultimate ESP, as he knows everything. So he will always know which will be the result of all die rolls.
That's all...

Keep civilized

David

 

[Sukenis]

How can Yang be claiming God has the ultimate ESP when he is an Atheist? Plus, even in SMAC, ESP and the likes of it are not considered a science so I do not see how ESP could be related to this.

 

[dguichar]

Of course Yang is an atheist. He believes he's his own god and wants to dethrone anyone else who may exist... or at least to get his ESP superhabilities.

Keep civilized

David