anarchy gamble

[Grille]

The prehistory:
What bothered me for some time was the question if the tech choice prompt is prior to the government choice prompt. I've made a small test on this topic - you will first be prompted to set a new research aim.

Republic is a very expensive tech, and occasionally, I set science to minimum or (preferably) hire a scientist when researching that type of government. 40 turns waiting is not that nice; on top of that, playing a non-religious civ, there's even some additional "useless waiting" due to the phase of anarchy . So I figured that I could make a revolt before republic is actually researched, thus sparing a couple of "waiting" turns. Like any other specialist, a scientist does not refuse to work during anarchy. I could make a revolt and keep the research progress going by having hired a scientist during anarchy. Note that you actually need to already know a government type other than despotism (would be monarchy in this case) to be able to make a revolution!
Still another problem remains: the exact lenght of the anarchy phase is not known, it's 1-8 turns for non-religious civs, where as one part of this phase is totally random (1-5 turns IIRC) and the other probably dependent on empire size (i.e. number of cities). I estimate a 5-turns anarchy period to be the most often event I get in my games when I make a revolt in the late ancient/early middle ages. In the test (vanilla on emperor level, standart size, big pangaea, all other settings on "avarage", no barbs, max ai civs randomly chosen, picked Germany myself) I only tried 6 times to see what I anarchy lenghts I would get: it was twice 4 turns and 4 times 5 turns. FWIW, my very first anarchy gambling try was when I got still 5 turns left to the tech republic and the RNG gave me indeed the same lenght of anarchy. A success so far.

For the initial question (tech choice pop-up prior to gov choice pop-up?), here's an insight of the order of occurences:
(the pics were just taken one turn before republic was researched - but anarchy lasted overall 5 turns)

 

[Grille]

So I could combine my slow research progress with the anarchy phase, "sparing" 5 turns.

To avoid almost any gambling, I'd think that revolting 3 or 4 turns before republic is in, is safe. I do appreciate any information on the number of cities (or probably actual percentage of OCN)/number of anarchy turns relation to figure out the minimum number of anarchy turns.

Here's another pic - the anarchy gamble did not work:




I just tried to make a "new" revolution.
In this case, the domestic advisor did not suggest to increase medication - instead it was even doubted that I took my *usual* dose rate...

 

[lz14]

Dude, how did you get Monarchy? Why don't you use that resource to get republic? You have to know at least one government tech to have a revolt. So this stradegy doesn't really work.

 

[Grille]

I got monarchy from Russia in exchange for peace.
To be honest, a bit later, I could have even gained republic for peace with America.
I didn't take it - for testing purposes, of course.
I don't know if it's worth to first get into monarchy and then soon become a republic - being non-religious, that is.
I don't claim this strategy to be vital in every game, nor do I think that one might plan to use it right from game start. I would even guess that you could rarely use it. But I think it's very useful when:

Being non-religious, you research republic with one scientist and already know monarchy (but don't want to change to monarchy).
Whatever. Maybe you have just 4 turns left on your one-scientist-run to get the discovery of republic and suddenly also could get monarchy (peace treaty, significant cost drop that you could trade for it or hut-pop). Then, I would immediatelly make a revolt to be in republic ASAP.

 

[SirPleb]

This is a nice tip, thanks! I've been in that exact situation, where I had (or could trade for) Monarchy but wanted to go Republic and was learning it at the 40 turn rate.

I sure wish the period of anarchy was more predictable and/or fixed. But I guess it would be quite safe to assume 3 turns for a fair size empire. And now that you've determined the sequence of events, even a religious Civ could gain one turn on the flip by doing it this way.

A variation might also be useful at times. I've been in situations where a rival learned Republic and I thought "should I wait till others learn it and I can buy it cheaper or should I buy it now to get there sooner?" If we know (or can trade for) Monarchy and the deal for Repubic can be made for cash (not gpt which won't exist during anarchy ) then it would be safe to start a revolution and delay the purchase of Republic till one turn before the revolution completes to see if it gets cheaper. Another option which I'll keep in mind from now on

 

[Qitai]

Originally posted by SirPleb
even a religious Civ could gain one turn on the flip by doing it this way.

Not necessary for religious if you research the tech yourself. You get the option for revolt when you get the tech and if you use that option, the revolt is considered being done LAST turn. So, you get into republic immediately

 

[SirPleb]

Originally posted by Qitai
Not necessary for religious if you research the tech yourself. You get the option for revolt when you get the tech and if you use that option, the revolt is considered being done LAST turn. So, you get into republic immediately

Oops you're right of course. Oh well, still useful to gain a few turns for non-religious.

 

[kb2tvl]

Anarchy lasts 2 to 8 turns. Or that is all I have seen.

 

[Grille]

Anarchy *could* last just one turn for non-religious civs. Here's a link to Catt's (thanks btw ) post with an information about anarchy length. This determination has originally been posted by Soren J. at Apolyton, as Catt's link shows. Note that some posters have also reported about a one-turn anarchy (non-religious) here at CFC (e.g. Padma, if you scroll up a bit in the linked thread).
So as long as the fixed length part of anarchy is not fully determined, some kind of gambling remains when you revolt before republic is actually discovered.
You would not do it playing an OCC game (or similar) unless you really want to gamble.
I agree with SirPleb, with a decent expansion (respectively "capturing") rate in the early game, I would expect at least three turns of anarchy: two turns probably derive from your empire size and one additional turn from the best RNG result possible. Of course, knowing the exact relation between empire size and minimum anarchy length would be very, very nifty. I'm not so sure if the option "preserve random seed" would guarantee the same RNG anarchy part length after a reload (for testing purposes). If so, I think it would not be that hard to find the turn "jump-ups" in anarchy length based on empire size (city number/actual OCN percentage). Maybe I try to look into it at the week-end.

 

[Grille]

Originally posted by SirPleb

A variation might also be useful at times. I've been in situations where a rival learned Republic and I thought "should I wait till others learn it and I can buy it cheaper or should I buy it now to get there sooner?" If we know (or can trade for) Monarchy and the deal for Repubic can be made for cash (not gpt which won't exist during anarchy ) then it would be safe to start a revolution and delay the purchase of Republic till one turn before the revolution completes to see if it gets cheaper. Another option which I'll keep in mind from now on

This variation sounds very interesting and could also be used at a later point of time in a game (democracy, an often *avoided* dead-end tech).
What is more, I think one would stumble across such a situation pretty much often.

In some game, maybe it takes some time (ideally -at the most- equal to the anarchy length) until the desired government tech have spread among the civs, thus decreasing the tech value.

So assuming a filled treasury and (almost) monopolized government tech costs, I would ever first make a revolt, and then trade for the desired tech just one turn before the anarchy is over - instead of first trading for for tech and then revolting.

As for being somewhat liquid during anarchy:
During anarchy, some gpt income may be achieved by hiring some taxmen (perhaps additionally to an on-going gpt deal your civ benefits from). Theoretically, the total possible revenue of taxmen would be equal to the total number of citizens, giving quite a trade-relevant gpt income for fair sized empires. This would be a temporary measure, to be performed just before going to the negotiations table in the last turn of anarchy. After having set up the government tech deal succesfully, the taxmen can work tiles again. (I guess taxmen income would be considered as acceptable gpt income). This may help to establish the government tech trade if liquid funds are low; granted, one gpt rate should stand by in the treasury.
On a side-note: I've read on another forum about a guy who made a (multiplayer) test game about gpt payments during anarchy: there seems to not be the autosell/disband penalty once the treasure runs dry (he stated it was not on chieftain level). I can't confirm (for SP), also, to some degree, this feels exploitive.

 

[kb2tvl]

A "trick" I do is to buy rep or monarchy for cash + gpt and then hit the revolt button. You will pay out of your nonexistant funds for the purchase of republic and after 8 turns you are neither richer or poorer but in a republic. So essentially you had a free lunch during the revolt. This seems to work on Emperer and sometimes on Monarch level. I guess it works on diety as well.

 

[anarres]

IIRC the RNG portion for anarchy is 1 to 5 turns, and 0 to 3 turns for the number of cities.

So a 1 turn is certainly possible very very early, or if you never build many cities. I think 3 is a fairly safe minimum, assuming you have around OCN cities (which is fairly typical by the time you get Republic).

Since I can normally research Republic faster than min-research I usually go for it at max. Min science is useful, but I think too many people use it carte blanche without realising when max research could net them a tech monopoly...

 

[Grey Fox]

I researched steam power through my 9 turn anarchy I had recently in a C3C game. (researched the tech in 6 of those turns) Check here: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?s=&postid=1392983#post1392983


So now it's possible to get 9 turns of anarchy.