col said:
I think that's a bit much tbh, and possibly a bit of a knee-jerk reaction?
The ODIs aren't really relevant. England were in the driving seat throughout the first two tests, and though they lacked the killer touch, it was only a dramatic collapse against Muralitharan that really prompted such major concerns. Sure, it wasn't good to watch, but it was only one day of cricket and England have already shown they can take on and beat a team including Warne.
As for the batting, I think England will be (possibly considerably) stronger than last time around. Trescothick and Strauss have the benefit of experience going into this series; Strauss in particular will benefit fom going into this series with 2 test centuries against Warne to his name. There shouldn't be any of the cluesness that dogged his game early in the last series.
Pietersen likewise has only had time to mature, and has since recorded 3 more test centuries, two in excess of 140. If Flintoff can get fit, then that's the backbone of the lineup from the last series, and better equipped too.
The other two batsmen in the last series were Vaughan and Bell, and despite Vaughan's hundred and Bell's fifties at Old Trafford, the two failed to produce consistent runs. There was talk of dropping Bell, and early in the series it was recognised that Vaughan's captaincy was doing a lot to keep him the side. I think England are now in a position to rectify the problems of these two batting spots.
Alastair Cook has 3 centuries in 7 matches (plus a first class double hundred against Australia), and has the opener's temperament to be a solid number three, and provide some insurance in the line up. In Vaughan's place you have a choice: Collingwood - has scored two centuries since the Ashes (including that excellent 186 in the first test v Pakistan), is seen as one of England's stronger players of spin, and a good fit in between Pietersen and Flintoff; or Bell - now has 4 centuries to his name (three of which against Kaneira, who many believe has better disguised variation than Warne) and seems to be finally gaining some authority at test match level.
With everybody fit, there's some difficult decisions to be made. I don't think there's a problem with the batting. With Glenn McGrath 18 months older, lacking match fitness and without any match practice, I think it could be another case of how many matches from him, and with no guarantee of form. Of course, Australia's other speed merchants (Lee and Tait - is he even fit yet?) already failed dismally in the last Ashes. Gillespie on the other hand, has conned his way back into the side with wicket taking performances against the might of Bangladesh and is now experiencing a pretty mediocre season of county cricket with Yorkshire (averaging 30+).
I haven't got much to say about the keeper. Either Jones will stay, or Read will come in. I don't think the team will be any weaker in that department either way.
This is the issue though...bowling.
If Flintoff doesn't make it...I'm not sure how many late nights of Ashes cricket I could manage if England's were reduced to bowling the likes of Plunkett and Mahmood in tandem. However, Harmison's 11 wicket haul in this latest test match is promising, especially considering his somewhat dissapointing Ashes last year, having ascended to the status of world's number one bowler not long before. Though people like to point to home advantage for Australia this time around, the pitches down under will at least favour Harmison.
Hoggard will inevitably retain his place, leaving the question of who replaces Simon Jones. This will be the weak link in the bowling attack I expect, it just depends on how will England can cover it up. Supported by a four man seam attack including Harmison-Hoggard-Flintoff, it could be fine. If the exclusion of Flintoff forces England into a three man attack, it could be...not so good.
Despite what I said about the possibility of England bowling Plunkett-Mahmood in tandem above, I don't think that can happen. Either Flintoff will make it and take his place in the attack, or he won't, and England will be reduced to a three man pack attack as they will definitely want a spinner in the side. This is one area that right now looks very promising. Giles received a lot of stick prior to the Ashes, and despite taking a few wickets and in the eyes of some proving himself within the team, his stats weren't too impressive. Until recently I though Dalrymple may take Giles's place due to his batting ability, but Giles only produced with the bat in one innings last series, so I don't think England really have to worry about filling his batting shoes. In that case, and considering Panesar's recent form (second test mach five-for yesterday), I think England could count the spin department as a clear improvement from last year's Ashes. Giles has been used almost exclusively as a defensive bowler for England, whereas Panesar is already being used a wicket taking bowler. Early into the attack yesterday, he removed five of the opposition's top six - that opposition being the familiar-to-spin Pakistan lineup, no less.
So I think the bowling is touch and go. If Flintoff is fit, then I think the England attack have a chance to emulate, or even surpass last year's efforts. Harmison and Flintoff bowling on the relatively fast and bouncy pitches of Australia would be a powerful force IMO - both capable strike bowlers. I don't have as much confidence in saying that of Hoggard or Plunkett. It could be good, it could be bad, but it's not as if Australia aren't facing similar problems in filling their own bowling attack.
If Flintoff is fit, then England could decide not to play a fourth seamer anyway, and rather to play whichever batsman would miss out - Collingwood or Bell, or to play a second spinner in Dalrymple, who would also strengthen the batting further.
IF Flintoff...
IF Flintoff...
IF Flintoff...
IF Flintoff...
IF Flintoff...
I think it may come down to that, but I certainly don't think it's done and dusted, no contest, a walkover or anything like...England could easily head to Australia with an on paper stronger lineup. I think it will be an entertaining series either way, with plenty of individual performances to remember. And thanks to Cricket Australia for endorsing that idea: allowing England players to get fitness through playing Australian club cricket.
About time the Aussies did us a favour.
