Roland Johansen
Deity
The current system is an interesting hybrid of coalition considerations and separate considerations. Attitude is averaged (for vassals, not defensive pacts) which determines the % of chance a particular target will be considered each turn. The comparison of military power is done by coalition and the AI will not consider attacking coalitions which are too powerful. The weighting of attractiveness of territory to capture is done separately (though attitude plays a role, power may as well) and, if all the war rolls pass, the highest weighted victim that is considered that particular turn is chosen.
The AI then picks a single target, which makes sense since there can be anywhere from ~10 to ~40 turns (Epic) before it actually declares war so the coalitions can change. This has one bad effect in that it won't bulk up defenses along its borders with other members of the coalition (yet). The other main effect is where the attacker's surprise stack moves to start the war: it always attacks the chosen single target as it should, since that's the territory it found most attractive (with some attitude-based randomness). The attacker then also prefers to keep that war and is more willing to end wars with other members of the coalition who attacked it.
Hmm, it's the shifting of alliances that makes this hard. Otherwise, I'd say, the friend of my enemy is my enemy and thus if it's the most efficient to attack this friend of my enemy, then the AI should do this.
However, with the AI's inability to shift focus once is has first determined that it will declare war and the shifting alliances during the buildup period, this is not possible or at least not wise.
There is a reason that the AI fixes its future war declaration a while before it declares war, but this inflexibility of course also has its weaknesses. It's the choice between an AI which behaves like a puppet with the human controlling its strings or an AI that is inflexible to a changing environment.
Yeah, although it's a very nice compliment, I agree with you Roland that the AI will not shift so dramatically in ability as to make any dumbing down necessary. The AI will simply never be able to plan strategically at the level to routinely beat anyone who's invested enough in civ to browse these forums at or below Noble ... it might happen occasionally, but with equal in-game resources the human brain will usually win. If it takes players a couple of games at a lower difficulty to adapt to the new AI, then I'd say that's a job well done.
Of course, I also admire the achievements already made to improve the AI. It's a great job and makes the game more enjoyable.