falconne
meep
The way Civ AI was in Civ 4, and the way I hear it being complained about in Civ 5, it's just not up to the task. Logical warfare would be nice, and is more realistic, but impractical without making it too predictable and easy to game. Realism should not come at the cost of gameplay.
Civ AIs can't handle a fraction of the stuff Paradox AIs can, but the AIs can be improved once the code is here.
As for predictability, if you play Europa Universalis you'll realise it's far from predictable. What it produces is logical. Not only does the stuff that happens in the game make sense, which is important in an empire building game (even though Civ 5 is very much an abstract strategy game now), it also makes the AI more sensible. This forces it to concentrate on more immediate threats (neighbours with casus belli on you are more likely to attack, so the AI knows who to defend against) instead of wondering off to plant settlements in the middle of tundra.
As has been discussed in other threads quite a bit already, there are two groups of Civ players now. Some who like the empire sim style games that make you feel like you're creating an alternate and believable history, and another group who prefer pure quantifiable strategy and don't mind abstraction. Casus belli systems in Paradox style definitely falls in to the realistic sim group, which is why I don't think anything like that will be a part of core Civ 5.
On an unrelated note, regarding your comment about "predictability" though, I don't think being unpredictable is helping the Civ AI. Paradox AIs are good because they are goal based - the higher level decides what goals need to be achieved and lower levels implement tasks to get there. You may call it "predictable", but what it does is give the AI a sense of purpose and it can achieve something. The current Civ AI changes its mind every few turns, as the equations tilt in different ways. That's why so many people have complained about the AI seeming "random" and having no sense of direction. It tries to pull in every direction at once and goes nowhere. Even if it does make them more predictable to an experienced player, making the AIs goal based actually makes them a lot better at empire building.