D=2000, in flip formula

:lol: man did i screw that one up! Totally forgot about the 2000*culture thing.....

and yes, I meant culture higher for the AI (b/c of the wonders).....
 
Originally posted by TheNiceOne

P=[(5+4)*2*1/1.5-14]/1000 = < 0.
[/QUOTE][/B]

So an army counts as the number of units in it, not 1 unit, for the flipping formula?
 
Originally posted by sumthinelse
So an army counts as the number of units in it, not 1 unit, for the flipping formula?
Oh, I just took the number 14 from Killer's calculation. I have never actually checked it, but I thought armies counted as 1 military unit only, which means that the flip chance becomes even a bit higher.
This is difficult to check for flip calculation, but my guess is that an army is treated similar here as for military police, which can easily be checked.
I'll see if I get around to place an army in a city under monarchy and check whether I get 1, 3 or 4 military police.
 
Originally posted by Gothmog

P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D

where:
P = probability that it will flip this turn
F = # foreigners, with resistors counting double
T = # working tiles under foreign control
Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise
H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise
Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ
Cty = Total culture of your civ
G = # garrison units
D = factor based on relative distance to capitals

Suppose my city could flip to more than one civ. America (me), India, and Spain are involved. I have a city that has 2 foreign citizens, both belonging to India. Spain has some of my city's territory inside its boundary, but I have no Spanish citizens. I would think that the Indian citizens would not affect the probability it would flip to Spain, but I don't really know. I guess I could do an experiment to test this.

Also, I don't know if the territory under Spanish control would increase the probability it would flip to India. Does T mean total tiles under foreign control, but Indian and Spanish? (I think "foreign control" means either they have units on the tile, or it is inside their national boundary.)
 
sumthinelse:
I haven't tested this myself, but according to the extensive thread on Apolyton (that also had input from Soren Johnson), the flip calculation is done independently for each civ it may flip to.

So flip chances are calculated twice for your city. When it calculates whether it flips to Spain, "foreign" means "Spain", and when it calculates whether it flips to India, "foreign" means "Indian".

So the Indian tiles doesn't increase the flip chance to Spain and vice versa.

An example, assume 10 Indian tiles and 10 Spain citizens, all culture and palace distances equal.

Flip to India: = [(0+10)*1*1*1]/2000 = 0.5%
Flip to Spain: = [(10+0)*1*1*1]/2000 = 0.5%

Chance of a flip to either India or Spain: = 100% - (95% * 95%) = 0.975%

OTOH, if both the citizens and tiles belonged to the same civ, the flip calculation would be:
Flip = [(10+10)*1*1*1]/2000 = 1.0%

So, it is slightly better to have the foreign tiles/citizerns divided between several civs than one only. The difference becomes bigger if you have military units there, since one military unit will decrease both flip calculations.

BTW, I think "foreign control" only means tiles inside enemy cultural borders, those inside your borders, but with enemy units on them do not count AFAIK.
 
Originally posted by TheNiceOne

So the Indian tiles doesn't increase the flip chance to Spain and vice versa.

An example, assume 10 Indian tiles and 10 Spain citizens, all culture and palace distances equal.

Flip to India: = [(0+10)*1*1*1]/2000 = 0.5%
Flip to Spain: = [(10+0)*1*1*1]/2000 = 0.5%

Chance of a flip to either India or Spain: = 100% - (95% * 95%) = 0.975%

Thanks TNO. I think you mean 100% - (99.5% * 99.5%) :)

I would like to test some of these conditions if I could find time....
 
So i understand that if i conquer all the cities of an enemy, thus wiping the civ out, i do not need to fear that the conquered cities would flip to a 3rd party, if no working tiles are involved...
Am i right?
To summarize as an example, i took the last roman city that has 15 citizen, but all its tiles are within my boundaries; then this city can't flip to France, my neighbour. Is that it? No need to starve the city?
 
Originally posted by Globetrotter

To summarize as an example, i took the last roman city that has 15 citizen, but all its tiles are within my boundaries; then this city can't flip to France, my neighbour. Is that it? No need to starve the city?

Correct, if we are interpreting what Firaxis said correctly. Remember that the city boundaries are always 21 tiles for flipping calculations. Also that if you have the "Respawn AI" option on, or they had a settler, the flipping problem might not be over.
 
sumthinelse: Yes, I meant 99.5%, which gives the result: 0.9975% vhanve of a flip to either of the foreign nations.

Globetrotter,: That's my understanding and experience. And I've never heard of anyone suffering a flip after the original civ is eliminated.
 
There seems something wrong with this conclusion.

If I capture a city from another civ and eliminate that civ, you are saying that city can't flip to another civ? You mean that that city is now more resistant culture flips than any of my other homegrown cities? Have I misinterpreted this conclusion? As far as I know only the city with the palace is truely totally resistant to culture flips.
 
Just to clarify, is this the same formula for culture flipping an AI city? (i.e. a city that has had no previous owners.)

Just to take an example from a game I'm currently playing, am I figuring this right:

T=12; 12 Tiles of the city radius within my cultural boundary.
F=0; I've never owned this city.
Cc=1; I assume he has built no cultural buildings. (His radius hasn't expanded and I've collapsed him down to only working 6 squares).
H=1; not enough population for WLTKD
Ce/Cty=1.5; a guess, sometimes they are in awe and sometimes they are admirers
G=2; just a guess.
D=2000; about equidistant.

So my odds of getting this city to flip are:
12*1*1*1.5-2/2000=0.8% or .008. Yikes. I've got a long wait.
 
Originally posted by Cartouche Bee
There seems something wrong with this conclusion.

If I capture a city from another civ and eliminate that civ, you are saying that city can't flip to another civ? You mean that that city is now more resistant culture flips than any of my other homegrown cities? Have I misinterpreted this conclusion? As far as I know only the city with the palace is truely totally resistant to culture flips.
You are correct, CB. Only your Capital City (with the Palace ;) ) is immune from Culture Flipping.

If you capture a city from another Civ, and that Civ is destroyed, there is no chance of the city flipping to the destroyed civ. There is always a *chance* it may flip to another Civ - you have to plug the appropriate values into the formula to find out how much.
 
As long as: F+T = 0 ;
or G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty)
there is no chance of a flip.

I think the questions was whether F or T from one civ (Rome) can help flips to another civ (say France). Then the question was extended to include - if Rome is eliminated but you still have Roman citizens would that enhance flip chances to France?

I don't think so but I can't be sure.
 
Originally posted by Padma
Agreed, Gothmog. My understanding is that the Roman citizens do not affect the chances of a flip to France - only French citizens would.

But I'm not 100% positive.

And we think that tiles under Roman control do not help a flip to France, but this is not tested.
 
Originally posted by Padma
Agreed, Gothmog. My understanding is that the Roman citizens do not affect the chances of a flip to France - only French citizens would.

But I'm not 100% positive.

I actually tested this (a little). I had Rome, Egypt, Greece.

Greece conquered 2 cities of size 20 each, and ended up with 40 total Roman resisters, with no garrison. Other than the resisters, Greece and Rome would have had an equal chance of a flip. My theory was that the Roman resisters should help the chance of a flip to Rome, but not to Egypt. 40 resisters are equivalent to 80 foreigners.

Since both the Roman and Greek capitals were about 4 times closer than the Roman capital, I thought the probability of a flip to Rome would be about 16%, and the chance of a flip to Egypt would be about 0.2%. If the Roman resisters counted for Egypt, the chance of a flip to Egypt would also be about 16%.

Out of 20 trials, a city flipped to Rome 3 times, zero times to Egypt. So this is not conclusive evidence but it leads me to believe that TNO, Gothmog, and Padma are correct: foreigners and resisters count only in the calculation of a flip to their own civ .
 
Originally posted by Cartouche Bee
There seems something wrong with this conclusion.

If I capture a city from another civ and eliminate that civ, you are saying that city can't flip to another civ? You mean that that city is now more resistant culture flips than any of my other homegrown cities? Have I misinterpreted this conclusion? As far as I know only the city with the palace is truely totally resistant to culture flips.
Yes, you misinterpreted the conclusion. In the formula, "foreign" should be changed to the name of the civ you compute the chance of flip towards, and "local/your" should be changed to "current owner".

Now consider a case where you take a city with 10 French and 10 Roman citizens. While both of those civs are alive, the flip chance is computed twice each turn, once where France is considered "foreign" and once where Rome is considered "foreign".

When you use the formula, you'll see that when the 10 French are considered the "foreign", the 10 Romans doesn't affect the formula at all (except by help making a WLTKD or civil disorder). So if you kill off Rome, there will never be any flip calculation where the 10 Roman citizens are considered foreign so they will no longer affect flip chances at all - they will effectively be your citizens.

So a city with 20 Roman citizens (and none other) will have no "foreign" citizens any more. If the city doesn't have any tiles under any other nation's control, then the city cannot flip, just as the case would be if the city contained 20 of your citizens instead.

Or said in another, much simpler way: Citizens of an eliminated civ is considered belonging to the city owner for flip calculation purposes.
 
Originally posted by zak
Just to clarify, is this the same formula for culture flipping an AI city? (i.e. a city that has had no previous owners.)
Yes, it's the same formula. The only difference for a conquered city is that foreign culture and citizens are higher and can therefore increase flip chance.

Just to take an example from a game I'm currently playing, am I figuring this right:

T=12; 12 Tiles of the city radius within my cultural boundary.
F=0; I've never owned this city.
Cc=1; I assume he has built no cultural buildings. (His radius hasn't expanded and I've collapsed him down to only working 6 squares).
H=1; not enough population for WLTKD
Ce/Cty=1.5; a guess, sometimes they are in awe and sometimes they are admirers
G=2; just a guess.
D=2000; about equidistant.

So my odds of getting this city to flip are:
12*1*1*1.5-2/2000=0.8% or .008. Yikes. I've got a long wait.
The result is correct, but you were in danger of using one of the factors incorrectly. The Cc factor is 2 if foreign culture is larger than local culture. But remember that when you calculate a flip to your civ, you is the foreign part. So Cc for the above city will remain 1 regardless of whether the other civ build cultural buildings or not. It would only be 2 if you had previously owned the city and built cultural buildings there.
 
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