Drill IV or Combat IV? You decide! Includes graphs

[TheMeInTeam]

I usually take combat, but not always, there're some situations where I go drill:

1. Super medic's first promo to open medic. If you go drill instead of combat here, it will never defend before a regular combat I troop of the same kind. This is pretty handy.

2. I'm protective, I have a rifle, I'm going to fight a cavalry, and I have 2 promos available

3. Oromos

4. Way under my level warfare, where it's infantry on longbows. Might as well avoid damage.

 

[PieceOfMind]

@PieceOfMind: A CG3 Drill 1 LB would do about the same no?

Personally, I doubt it. I will do a test soon, just for the hell of it. I'm probably wrong though.

About mop up troops, really I don't see the point using drill troops here. If you have done the jobs with cats, trebs, etc first, any troop will do. And with a medic3 they will likely be healed in one turn after the battle.

"When the ratio is nearly 1, the drill promotions actually come out a fair bit stronger than combat I think. However it's not common for people to regularly play the close-to-even odds."

If you're doing the mop up, why not use Drill troops that will net you one and a half times or twice as much xp, while still about 98% odds? The xp milking is really worthwhile in the mop up stage.

well, if you fight 15 combat one rifles with 15 drill one rifles, you are not likely to be the winner...

I agree with that but it's beside the point. I'm comparing attacking 15 rifles with 15 C1 rifles, and attacking 15 rifles with 15 D1 rifles. Turns out I'm wrong anyway. C1 is a fair bit better on exactly R=1

Cheers

edit: Tx for all the datas!

Spoiler :

IMO drill is made for Charlemagne so the lone HRE units which survive get some XP

No probs

 

[RRRaskolnikov]

1. Super medic's first promo to open medic. If you go drill instead of combat here, it will never defend before a regular combat I troop of the same kind. This is pretty handy.

Nice one... I will test the archer super medic soon!

edit to answer PoM: If you have time for the LB sim... I will welcome the input! (and I am usually wrong too ).
About the mop up troops... sometimes, if you wait to have siege weapons, combat troops, mop up troops to declare, your opponent wil have obselete them... or sometimes (when you play a high level for you), you just won't have as many troops as the opponent... so you just can't afford mop up troops. When you have fewer troops, you interest is in stronger troops... no?

 

[PieceOfMind]

Agreed. Plus, Drill IV doesn't lead to Combat 5.

On the other hand, the whole unscathed thing is great.

In other words, I'm voting for it depends.

On that note, I'm guessing a comparison of D4+C1 with C5 is in order! Will be back with results soon...

 

[Bleys]

In general I like the Drill line because in most cases, the vast majority of my combat is taking enemy cities. This means I have siege, lots of it, and the Drill line really scores big mopping up.

 

[RRRaskolnikov]

In general I like the Drill line because in most cases, the vast majority of my combat is taking enemy cities. This means I have siege, lots of it, and the Drill line really scores big mopping up.

Hi Bleys

the majority of combat is mop up, yes... but the most critical moment in the war is when you kill the ennemy stack at the beginning of the war. i think combat troops are better for this job...

Cheers

 

[DarkFyre99]

Which promotion line is better, Drill IV and Combat IV, really depends upon circumstances. The Drill line is better when there is a large gap in strength in your favor (tech advantage or mopping up damaged units), the combat line is better when there is a rough parity, or you're at a disadvantage.

 

[PieceOfMind]

D4 + C1 compared with C5.

Spoiler :

@RRRaskolnikov.

I ran the test. Since it was 5 catapults that attacked that longbowman first, I'll look mainly at the battles with the catapults. I'll assume the catapults had CR1.

My longbow had CG1, D4 and C1. 4-7 first strikes.

I'll compare it with the CG3 D1 as you suggested, but with C2 too to make sure they have the same number of promotions. 1-2 first strikes.

Both get another 50% for being on a hill and in a city (inherent to longbowmen). Plus the standard 25% for being on a hill

Subtract from both the 20% from the catapult's CR. That leaves 85% modifier for the D4/CG1/C1 longbow and 150% for the CG3/D1/C2 longbow. (Hope I added those up right!)

The main consideration here will be which one is more likely to hold 100HP the longest. To survive 5 catapults in a row followed by more units, this is important.

You might find this result very surprising. I have highlighted the important bits...

Both longbows have very good odds of course, but one of them is far more likely to survive unscathed.

EDIT... The folllowing comparison is for one catapult attack only - not five.

 

[PieceOfMind]

Which promotion line is better, Drill IV and Combat IV, really depends upon circumstances. The Drill line is better when there is a large gap in strength in your favor (tech advantage or mopping up damaged units), the combat line is better when there is a rough parity, or you're at a disadvantage.

This is a fairly common view. I'm not convinced though.

Tech parity is not always the main factor. It is often about keeping the most defensible terrain, giving your drill troops huge advantages over having combat. When attacking cities, if you can soften defenders down to even just 80HP it is often enough to give your drill troops an advantage comparable to combat promotions. CR still tends to be better than Drill for city attacking of course.

 

[RRRaskolnikov]

@PoM: dumb question:
Those results are for the whole serie of combats ?
I struggle to read the conclusion... prob (87hp) =0.17 for the drill 4 < prob(88hp)=0.55 for the CG3 is after all combats?

Tx for the simulation...

edit:Tx again for explanations PoM

 

[PieceOfMind]

@PoM: dumb question:
Those results are for the whole serie of combats ?
I struggle to read the conclusion... prob (87hp) =0.17 for the drill 4 < prob(88hp)=0.55 for the CG3 is after all combats?

Tx for the simulation...

Sorry I should have been clearer. This is for one combat only. The probability of surviving with 100HP is an important consideration here, as once you become damaged you become more and more likely to take damage in successive rounds. A snowball effect I guess.

Basically imagine that if the odds are already stacked in the longbow's favour, then giving first strikes instead of more defense makes them more resilient.


By the way, the values you referred to are probabilities that the defender survives with exactly 87 or 88HP. Since the D4 longbow is more likely to survive with 100HP, it's naturally going to be less likely to have 87HP. Looking at those values in that column, you'll notice they add up to 0.9998, which is the probability of winning the combat. You should look at the list of "Defender has AT LEAST" values if you want to compare how likely they are to take little damage.

EDIT... maybe a silly little sketch will help illustrate the different distributions...

You will notice the blue curve is higher at the 87HP mark even though the red curve has a higher mean.

Spoiler :

 

[carl corey]

The question might be interesting, but how many times do you go for these promotions?! Pre-gunpowder there's CR to consider for Samurai, post gunpowder there's Pinch, March, Amphibious if you're fighting from ships. Commando is also enabled by Combat IV only which gives it an edge over Drill IV, especially if you're Charismatic. Nothing like razing the capital of the AI on the first turn of war.

 

[mungbean]

Does anyone know why there is no Drill 5 or Drill 6 promotion? Seems like these would make the Drill line more interesting, though it might be overpowered if you start with Drill 2 for free.

 

[svensken]

Comparing only the last promotions in the line is not very interesting, since you rarely start with a combat 4 or drill 4 unit.

It would be interesting to see graphs taking into account the whole process going from the first promotion (that is drill 1 or combat 1) to the fourth. The variable might be "expected number of combats survived starting at first promotion" as a function of A/D ratio.

This is interesting since it takes into account the varying relative strenghts of the first three promotions.

On the other hand, one might argue that you often start with enough xp for two promotions. Maybe it is necessary to do testing for all four cases, that is having a unit which starts with one, two, three or four promotions.

 

[PieceOfMind]

The question might be interesting, but how many times do you go for these promotions?! Pre-gunpowder there's CR to consider for Samurai, post gunpowder there's Pinch, March, Amphibious if you're fighting from ships. Commando is also enabled by Combat IV only which gives it an edge over Drill IV, especially if you're Charismatic. Nothing like razing the capital of the AI on the first turn of war.

Since you asked, I go for the Drill line fairly regularly. In some/many situations I believe the Drill line is more useful on the units which can take it, except siege. Archers, longbows and most gunpowder units do well with Drill. When you play a Prot leader, having Drill I to start is reason enough to stick almost exclusively to the Drill line until you have Drill IV, and then after Drill IV specialise in other ways like CG, guerilla etc.

Well Combat and Drill both have the advantage of being very general, with Drill having the main weakness against units immune to first strikes. In a stack, I rarely give any units the unit-specific promotions (no more than 1 or 2 units anyway). When it comes to attacking a city, as soon as you promote to pinch, say, you get a non-gunpowder pop up as best defender instead.

I hadn't much considered Commando. Do you really use it that often? Can you reach their capital by road on the first turn?

@svensken
I'll get back to you on that one.

 

[carl corey]

I've had a game in which Zara was a huge power on the other continent, had a vassal and was at war with another AI and soon would have vassalized that one too. Whenever I went for a unit type he'd be a couple of unit types ahead of me. The only time I "caught up" with him was Mechanized Infantry (he had them too, but didn't have Modern Armor). Of course, since it was with Boudica and I had the benefit of taking two cities with 3 Military Instructors each (!!!, prolonged war between two AIs on my continent) I had 3 cities producing Commando units and still plenty of GGs to build Military Academies. Anyway, my first attack took 8 cities, 3 of which were inland. My mistake? Not razing them. Zara took 4 back, I ended up with 2 cities and gave 2 to a rival of his. The second time around I simply razed everything in sight. Game over.

Anyway, that's a strategy that was clearly helped by Boudica and MIs captured from others, and the fact that Mech Inf have 2 movement and there were railroads all over the place. Almost ideal situation I guess.

But I didn't get the Pentagon (IIRC), which could also help, and I spread quite a few GGs around to get Military Academies. So if you're Charismatic but not Boudica you need 20XP. 3XP barracks + 4XP West Point + 2XP Vassalage + 2XP Theocracy (you're powerful enough to afford pissing others off with religion, right?) + 2XP from Pentagon = 13XP. You need either 4MIs or 3MIs and a won fight.

And I was wrong, Aggressive is even better than Charismatic. You need 17XP because you already have one promotion towards Commando. So 2MIs with bonuses from all the other things, add 1MI for each thing you don't have among Pentagon, Vassalage, Theocracy.

It's by no means a common thing to promote with Commando, but it can be useful at times. Best used with (in order from best to worst): Boudica, Genghis, Cyrus, any Aggressive, any Charismatic. And if you want to be promoted and healthy, use Boudica of the Aztecs and get Woodsman III Medic I Jaguar super-medics (8XP) instead of Medic III healers which require attaching a Great General as Warlord. It frees up the GGs to be settled as MIs. With Boudica you actually don't need any MIs in the WP city (13XP for CIV-Commando) and two MIs in any city, all bonuses (Theo, Vass, Pentagon) considered.

 

[UWHabs]

Commando units get their full movement points in opponent territory. Meaning, if they have railroads, you can move 10 spaces in their territory, which is usually enough to reach their capital in the first turn.

Although useful, if you're playing with commando units, that means you have some highly promoted mofos there, and you can probably take them out the normal way just as well (never mind defending a city deep in their territory isn't exactly a piece of cake). I'd take C4+commando just to be able to pick off their stragglers. So you pick off their cavalry or rifle sitting out in the open, then you can scoot back to your stack/city to heal and rest, instead of leaving a partially injured guy out in the open.

 

[Iranon]

I generally prefer Drill.

Having a sizable power advantage doesn't mean the whole question is immaterial. Typical example: Monty's obsolete army outnumbering mine 5-to-1. Here I want defenders that can shrug off moderate amounts of collateral damage and those that have a good chance of remaining unscratched from an attack; a stack mostly promoted along Drill is less likely to be overwhelmed with sheer numbers.

On the attack, siege and mounted units do most of the work and Drill units are better for cleanup.
On the defense, I am quite likely to have a decent effective power ratio already,
thanks to defense bonuses and the game selecting my best defender against each attacker.

 

[Gumbolt]

I think drill 4 does get 10% against mounted. Not entirely useless.

If you get it up to level 5 you can add +25% vs mounted.

Food for thought.

Has anyone tried this on a Samurai?

 

[carl corey]

Drill for mounted protection is pretty useless though. Many mounted units ignore first strikes, Flanking II also makes them ignore first strikes, and you'll generally be weaker than the mounted unit anyway, so you want to get better in strength to improve your odds, otherwise you'll lose most of the time. And Formation (+25% vs mounted) is available with Combat II, it comes one promotion before Drill IV and gives a much bigger bonus.