Easy veteran->elite

[Loopy]

Originally posted by Allemand
If a unit attacks twice in one turn or is attacked twice in one turn, and it wins both times, it is promoted. This always works.

I think I have a save game at home that proves this wrong. It's definately from an earlier patch though. Regardless, I suspect that two attacks raises the odds of a promotion from 1/16 to an obscenely high percentage.

And there is a way to prove all this -- just look at the lines of code. These are not truely "random" events after all.

 

[Aeson]

forgot I couldn't attach such a large file...

 

[Aeson]

Here's a nice setup to run about 30-40 tests (Promotion Test.zip ~741k). The Chinese (pink) have a stack of Infantry/Riflemen/Longbowmen just inside my northern borders. I have several Tank Armies and quite a few Tanks. If you take out the Infantry with the armies and then use the lone Tanks against the weaker defenders you shouldn't lose many Tanks even with fighting 2 times with each. If a Tank gets down on low hp's, just wait until the Longbowmen are uncovered to continue with their second attack.

I played through it 3 times so far (slightly different ordering by using a different combination of Tank/Army on the Infantry). Each time I had every single Tank that won both battles get promoted. The only times it didn't promote on the second battle were when the promotion came on the first, which happened 2 or 3 times each time I tried. Even the Tanks inside the Armies got promoted if they didn't have to retreat.

I can't remember ever winning 2 battles with the same unit on the same turn and not getting a promotion (except when already elite of course). If it's not 100% chance, it's very close to it.

 

[Allemand]

In 1.17f and 1.21f it's not a random event. It always works, and none of you can prove it wrong.

 

[Evincar]

Let's put it in this way...

How many times I've blitzed with tanks?? maybe 200 or 300?. Ok, after the third one I realized I always got promoted after two battles. So I began to wonder there was something special about that.

So far, this kind of promotion hs NEVER failed. Who needs more proof?

 

[punkbass2000]

I don't.

 

[hifisoftware]

Originally posted by JamieE
The above claims that you cannot prove anything through statistics are incorrect. In this case you would test the null hypothesis that the probability of getting an elite by atacking twice on different turns is equal to the probability of attacking twice on the same turn. A simple t-test would be suffice.

You are correct though that an n of 4 is too low to say anything conclusive. An n of 1000 would almost certainly be overkill though, given the heuristic observations that I and others have seen. I would guesstimate that a sample size of ~10 would give you a 95% confidence.

The reason that epidemiological (medical) studies often report conflicting results is that they are trying to tease out minute differences in probaility between groups in situations where there are a) millions of possible confounding variables and b) ethecal constraints that make it impermissible to do experiments.

End of math geek rant

You still have not told us how to prove this (or anything) using statistics... 95% is certanly not a proof. 99.99999% is definetly not a proof. Even impossible 99.(9)% is still not a proff. Only when you try something infinite number of times (not a real number) you can say that you have proven something via statistics. Only then you will have 100%. This is just a game, so personaly >90% is good enough for me.

Not sure why I agrue, not that I really care about this so much or that I want to impose my point of view on anyone, but hey if I feel like it why not do it...

 

[Allemand]

In statistics, a 95% confidence rating is meaningful only to a statistician, and it's barely enough to give him a "warm and fuzzy" feeling. For us ordinary people it has no significance.

Anyhow, I have to confess that someone from Firaxis confirmed in a post or interview (can't remember which) at Apolyton or here that multiple wins in a turn would guarantee promotion for a unit. That was several months ago, I think, when 1.17f came out.

Has it been that long?

 

[Loopy]

Originally posted by Allemand
In statistics, a 95% confidence rating is meaningful only to a statistician, and it's barely enough to give him a "warm and fuzzy" feeling. For us ordinary people it has no significance.

Sure it has significance. A 95% confidence interval means that (provided the assumptions are correct) you'd expect to see true answer to be in the interval 95% of the time. A bound is given because you're sampling -- making it impossible (or meaningless) to give an "exact answer". By giving a 95% confidence interval, you're saying you'll be right 19 times out of 20.

 

[Almightyjosh]

I had 16 tanks, which had never before been to war and a whole lotta cavalry. I attacked the puny romans and took their cities with the cavalry. Then I let loose with the tanks to mop up what was left. Every single tank that won two battles in a row (mostly against swordsmen!!) was made elite, 14 in all. 14 of 14 is a prettty convincing statistic, no?
Unfortunately I then researched Synthetic Fibres and they all went back down to veteran, cres la vie!!

 

[ABX]

Attacking twice will increase your chance to get a promotion, but will also increase the damage you will suffer.

 

[Axraxes]

Holy smokes people - what are you all a bunch of statistics majors? If anyone has insomnia reading this thread is a guaranteed cure - I know it cured me. What are the chances of that?

 

[Mad Bomber]

Its true!

If your unit (any unit that can attack twice) wins two battles in the same turn, the unit will be promoted at least once. This is not a probability situation its automatic (if a unit fails promotion after the first it will automatically be promoted on 2nd win) Also this is from fireaxis so its holy writ!

 

[Herr Falle]

From F.A.Q[BWhat are the odds of promotions?[/B]

Odds of promotion are based on whether the civ has the Militaristic trait or not and whether the victory was against barbarians or not. Basically, chances of promotion are halved for victories over Barbarians and doubled for Militaristic civs.

non-militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8

non-militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 4
regular to veteran: 1 in 8
veteran to elite: 1 in 16

militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 1
regular to veteran: 1 in 2
veteran to elite: 1 in 4

militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8

If a victorious unit fails to get promoted, it will always be promoted upon surviving any other battle in the same turn . This gives an obvious advantage to defenders as well as an incentive to use the same offensive units for additional battles whenever possible.
Thanx again Mike.B@Firaxis

 

[papamaverick]

How do you get the blitz flag? What is it? How can your units attack 2x in one turn?

 

[meldor]

it will always be promoted upon surviving any other battle in the same turn

This always workes with barbarians as well. When you pop a goodie hut and get three barbs, they all attack that turn if possible. When that happens your unit will be promoted if it survives.

 

[Herr Falle]

Some units (panzers, Modern Armor etc) can attack more than one time per turn, but you dont have to attack to be promoted, being attacked is equally good for promotion. So if you get attacked twice in the same turn you will get promoted.

 

[meldor]

One easy way to get those early elites is to park them one atg a time outside the barb camps on a nice defensive square. The barbs will attack on a regular schedule and you will get elites. The only thing to watch for is when the second civ enters the next age and the camp have an uprising. Early on this can be a big help to getting your first Great Leader at the lower levels. At higher levels the barbs get bonuses that make this tactic less effective.

 

[Allemand]

meldor, that's something I didn't know. The second civ into the next era triggers a massive uprising? Does that apply to all the eras?

 

[meldor]

Yes, it applies to them all. You could have barb uprisings in the late stages of the game if you are doing conquest and not filling in the spaces. The trigger was giving out by Firaxis on the Apolyton strat forum.