"Fact or Fiction" - Tech Related Discussion/Debate

[Chieftess]

Since this is more tech oriented, it's in the Computer Talk forum. Anyway, if you ever watched ESPN's Sportscenter, you'll see they have something called "Fact or Fiction" where they debate a statement starting with "Fact" or "Fiction".

For example, if I say:

Fact or Fiction - First Person Shooters are the most popular genre.

You can either say something like:

Fact - They are the most popular... (and give a paragraph why)
Fiction - They are not the most popular (and give a paragraph why)

I'll give 5 statements, and you answer each one with only fact or fiction.

1 - Fact or Fiction: Rising development costs (currently in the millions of dollars) may be the death knell for the gaming industry.
2 - Fact or Fiction: AI software that allows a computer to code itself (i.e., write programs for itself to refine certain functions, or build a program based on what a person wants by verbal communiction) will be a reality within 50 years.
3 - Fact or Fiction: People will one day be "hard wired" to the Internet by the use of nanotechnology, releasing the potential to exponetially speed up scientific research, or for business purposes.
4 - Fact or Fiction: The Internet (or remote servers) will one day replace the desktop.
5 - Fact or Fiction: Computer memory and speed will soon reach a plataeu.

 

[ainwood]

1 - Fact or Fiction: Rising development costs (currently in the millions of dollars) may be the death knell for the gaming industry.

Fiction. The popularity of gaming as an entertainment form will outstrip any rising costs. Small developers might go-under, but the industry won't.

2 - Fact or Fiction: AI software that allows a computer to code itself (i.e., write programs for itself to refine certain functions, or build a program based on what a person wants by verbal communiction) will be a reality within 50 years.

Fact. Its already being done (on a limited scale).

3 - Fact or Fiction: People will one day be "hard wired" to the Internet by the use of nanotechnology, releasing the potential to exponetially speed up scientific research, or for business purposes.

Fact. Again, technology is already linking people with machines. It will continue.

4 - Fact or Fiction: The Internet (or remote servers) will one day replace the desktop.

Fiction (hopefully), but likely fact. Security is the main issue, and I see people have home servers that control everything in their house, interfacing with net servers as the logical next-step.

5 - Fact or Fiction: Computer memory and speed will soon reach a plataeu.

Fiction! Moore's law is still holding-strong.

 

[Chieftess]

1 - Fact or Fiction: Rising development costs (currently in the millions of dollars) may be the death knell for the gaming industry.

Fact - Rising development costs have forced mergers of even big name gaming companies (like Square and Enix). This means less competition from known rivals due to mergers, and also means less games. Games are also becoming more complex, as video and sound capabilities of computing systems become more sophisicated. To top it off, gamers demand more and more with each game, and each game "generation" (about every 5 years). We're in the "5th generation" of gaming where graphics are starting to become pretty realistic. What will happen 5-15 years down the road when graphics are so realistic, but gamers want more? The first few generations have diluted the gaming industry with so many types of games, that gamers have already played quite a few of them. If gamers want more music and more art, then that's that much more developers will need to musicians and artists for. Gamers now want 3D graphics (mostly), which means either more programmers with 3D graphics knowledge are needed, or expensive 3D engines need to be bought. Even 3rd party music and art might be expensive as well. It may not be dead in 5, 10 or even 15 years, but it's starting to go down that path.

2 - Fact or Fiction: AI software that allows a computer to code itself (i.e., write programs for itself to refine certain functions, or build a program based on what a person wants by verbal communiction) will be a reality within 50 years.

Fact - And probably closer to 50 years from now, and may be somewhat crude, but the technology will be there. What's needed is to give the computer some sort of "self-preservation" AI. If the computer starts slowing down, it can try to optimize the internal code. Voice communication is already being done, and will only get better. It's only a matter of time before someone is able to program something by voice (give general commands, and the computer figures it out).

3 - Fact or Fiction: People will one day be "hard wired" to the Internet by the use of nanotechnology, releasing the potential to exponetially speed up scientific research, or for business purposes.

Fact - For better or for worse, people will be connected to the Internet (or Internet2, which is in research right now). This will probably be done with nano-technology (or some other external device), and would use brain power + computer power to solve problems, similar to the SETI@Home project. Other uses would be for business use, even automatic shopping.

4 - Fact or Fiction: The Internet (or remote servers) will one day replace the desktop.

Fiction - The Internet will never replace the desktop. Reason? Servers are just too unstable to really be of any use for remote applications. Even still, having traffic flow to/from the server/client takes longer to perform a function than if it were performed on the client computer.

5 - Fact or Fiction: Computer memory and speed will soon reach a plataeu.

Fact - Physical data storage can only become so small. Right now, there's development for storage at the atomic level by manipulating atoms. Soon, it might get to the sub atomic level, and even at that, it would be pretty hard to get any smaller.

 

[Aphex_Twin]

1 - Fact or Fiction: Rising development costs (currently in the millions of dollars) may be the death knell for the gaming industry.

The gaming industry crashed a few times in the past and each time it recovered with more strength and innovation. I don't know if we are aproaching such a time. Gamers don't necessarily demand more realism. The industry will have to realize that graphics and aspects are secondary to gameplay.

In my case at least, the ideal game would be Civilisation III with simple Civ2 graphics and controlls, capabile of running in a window in a corner somewhere.

One area that could become popular would be theese so-called "programming games". Where gamers design algorithms that would run these independent drones that would battle each other. The potential in that area is great, also considering the ever-increasing number of amateur coders.


3 - Fact or Fiction: People will one day be "hard wired" to the Internet by the use of nanotechnology, releasing the potential to exponetially speed up scientific research, or for business purposes.

Fact. The internet has a big potential not just in research, but given enough time it can become a kind of alternate reality. This has both fascinating and spooky aspects related to it.


4 - Fact or Fiction: The Internet (or remote servers) will one day replace the desktop.
It's most likely fiction because activities on a local desktop will always be faster than on a server. On the other hand with computing power still on the increase (and with networking speeds bound to grow for a longer time than computing speed itself) there might be a time where it would be cheaper (or more conveniant) to connect to a server. We are also not taking into consideration pressures developed by big companies (i.e. Microsoft, or RIAA affiliates), who would be more than interested to promote mainframe-style consoles to the detriment of desktops (to think of it, this might be the only thing that could truly protect software and media copy-right).


5 - Fact or Fiction: Computer memory and speed will soon reach a plataeu.

I found a very interesting article recently just on that topic.
http://gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm

 

[Hakim]

1 - Fact or Fiction: Rising development costs (currently in the millions of dollars) may be the death knell for the gaming industry.

Fiction. New concepts will keep it alive, and concepts only need creativity.

2 - Fact or Fiction: AI software that allows a computer to code itself (i.e., write programs for itself to refine certain functions, or build a program based on what a person wants by verbal communiction) will be a reality within 50 years.

Well, fact. Computer Aided Software Engineering exists already today and there are several such tools that attempt automated code generation from software design as input. Voice input technology is already progressing. However, the AI will probably be working with that part rather than writing clever code.

3 - Fact or Fiction: People will one day be "hard wired" to the Internet by the use of nanotechnology, releasing the potential to exponetially speed up scientific research, or for business purposes.

Fact. The trend is more and more communication. This will start with ordinary cell phone technology. As the time to initiate and close communication goes down from seconds to microseconds, the use of cell phones will change. When initiation is quicker than typing the number, voice codes will be used instead ("call Hakim"). Everyone will start using headsets. Further down the road a call will be initiated by a "Hakim?" and accepted by "Yes?". Then, as the cost of communication goes down, there will be always-connected cell phones and people will have a virtual room where their friends and colleagues are always accessable. The cell phone + headset kit will be made smaller and easier to use and with this the reasons to take it off will disappear.

4 - Fact or Fiction: The Internet (or remote servers) will one day replace the desktop.

Fiction. Gamers will never accept the lag.

5 - Fact or Fiction: Computer memory and speed will soon reach a plataeu.

Hmm, not sure about this one. I think computer speed will reach a plateau eventually because of the heat emission/cooling problems and energy consumption.