Flip Calc - Calculates the probability of culture flips 1.5

[anarres]

Version 1.2 is now available!

Changes:

- added new form to allow better entry of distance
- changed icon

New 'distance' dialog:

 

[anarres]

fixed some annoying bugs

 

[Skyfish]

You did choose the best icon that was on offer

 

[anarres]

I still want a better one, but it looks ok on my quick launch bar:

 

[Hygro]

I like it

Just one question--how do you know the total culture of the AI?

edit:

Also, wouldn't it be good to know how many of the citizens are of your own nationality?

 

[anarres]

Just one question--how do you know the total culture of the AI?

At the moment you have to guess it, later on I will provide means of finding that within the application.

The real issue is the ratio of culture. If you think the AI has 3 times the amount as you (from the F7 screen) you can enter '3' for the AI and '1' for you.

Also, wouldn't it be good to know how many of the citizens are of your own nationality?

Why? It not part of the forumula...

 

[Gen]

I've just found your utility, anarres. It's really great, very helpful

However, there is a serious error in calculations. Program doesn't correctly value the new (added in some patch) garrison suppress cap factor which basically says that strong enough garrison reduces flip probability to 0 no matter what.

The rule for calculating what is "enough":
let FP (Flip Point) = 1 foreign citizen or 1 tile in enemy teritory. 1 resistor = 2FP.
Sum all FP counting foreigners, resistors (*2) and tiles. Multiply FP by happiness factor just like in original formula, but ignore culture ratios, distances and other factors. Then garrison city with 2 * FP units - that city will never flip (at least it shouldn't according to Firaxis ), even if your culture is 100 times lower and enemy capital is next door.
Taking symbols from original formula:

"Absolute control" garrison = (F + T) * H * 2

H = 2 if civil disorder, 1/2 if WLTKD, 1 otherwise

 

[anarres]

Thanks for the praise Gen.

I didn't include the garrison required yet (it is version 1.4), but where is this info about a new maximum garrison? It's not that I don't believe you, but I have not heard of it before. A link would be most useful.

FWIW, it would suit me perfectly to be able to ignore the culture factor for minimum 'safe' garrison. For me the ratio is often 1:5 against me, and this makes a *huge* difference to the required garrison as stated in the original formula.

Note that 'culture ratio' and 'local culture' are given values of 1 and the whole thing is doubled to get your new equation from the old:

G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty)

If Cc = (Cte/Cty) = 1 then

G = (F+T)*H

 

[Chieftess]

Originally posted by Gen
I've just found your utility, anarres. It's really great, very helpful

However, there is a serious error in calculations. Program doesn't correctly value the new (added in some patch) garrison suppress cap factor which basically says that strong enough garrison reduces flip probability to 0 no matter what.

The rule for calculating what is "enough":
let FP (Flip Point) = 1 foreign citizen or 1 tile in enemy teritory. 1 resistor = 2FP.
Sum all FP counting foreigners, resistors (*2) and tiles. Multiply FP by happiness factor just like in original formula, but ignore culture ratios, distances and other factors. Then garrison city with 2 * FP units - that city will never flip (at least it shouldn't according to Firaxis ), even if your culture is 100 times lower and enemy capital is next door.
Taking symbols from original formula:

"Absolute control" garrison = (F + T) * H * 2

H = 2 if civil disorder, 1/2 if WLTKD, 1 otherwise

What about mine?

I just noticed mine has the same problem with the garrison. (one ours split their ways to game save and ingame, they'll be completely different animals).

 

[Hygro]

Originally posted by anarres
Why? It not part of the forumula...

Wait a sec... but isn't it important for flipping the other way? I'm having trouble wording this, but if you have more of your own nationals it would make it harder to flip to them? Or just make it easier to flip back to you?

 

[Gen]

Sorry Chieftess, I did not try your program yet. I'm going to correct that mistake and download it right now!
anarres & Chieftess:
Now, the suppress factor. It was introduced in patch 1.17f due to number of complains about flipping Firaxis were receiving from many players. I've done some searching for you and here are the results -
Quote from 1.17f readme.txt file:

"* It is now possible to completely suppress a city's cultural reversion with enough military units. "

That information was then precised by Soren Johnson, originally on Apolyton (sorry I did not found the thread but here is a LINK to Apolyton's news archives where you can read that):

"Number of units to supress cultural reversion: cities with 2 or 3 foreign nationals and full control of their city radius probably will be under no risk with 4 to 6 units"
... which corresponds well with "my" formula. Agree with anarres, that makes HUGE difference when you are backward culturally!

This change was then discussed in a couple of threads, for example:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=16438&highlight=culture+flip+1.17f
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=16441&highlight=culture+flip+1.17f

Unfortunately, I couldn't find more detailed information (although I could swear I've read more precise info somewhere, and I use that rule in every game since 1.17f and never had a single flip). You may ask other posters (IIRC Zachriel and Catt are convinced about that formula being right, maybe they have better source of information than me). Or maybe just mail Soren directly? If he answers, it would be great to update our FAQ as well!

 

[Gen]

Originally posted by Hygro
if you have more of your own nationals it would make it harder to flip to them?

Unfortunately, no

Originally posted by Hygro
... Or just make it easier to flip back to you?

Yes, if the worst happens and your city flips, more of your nationals will mean more chance to you to get city flip back.

 

[anarres]

Dan Magaha FIRAXIS
It all goes back to the factors I listed in that thread. Note that ground units are one of the LEAST influential factors -- if the city you captured had a lot of culture in it from its previous owners, you will need a LOT of units to completely suppress any chance of it flipping.

Also remember total culture counts here, too. So if you're warmongering and have very low total culture this will hurt you in city-flipping calculations.

OTOH, if the city is equidistant between the capitals of the two cities in question, neither of you have ever produced any culture in it, and your total cultures are on par with each other, you might only need a couple of units.

Link to post.

Note that in that thread they are discussing Civ3 1.17 patch, and the post by Dan Magaha clearly states that total civ culture and local culture are factors.

The 'one liner' comment from Soren is true when certain conditions are met (like culture ratios). In fact, allowing for local culture to be greater for the AI (in a recently captured city), Sorens comment about needing 2 garrison for every foreign national is true.

Again, I *want* to believe you, I *want* it to be true, but none of the links provide any evidence of this formula.

Here's to hoping we find out for sure. To help us in the quest for knowledge I made a thread in GD:

Minimum garrison required to stop a flip?

Gen, I would appreciate you posting there to help stimulate some feedback.

 

[Sirp]

I'm not sure which is the case, but I have always followed the principle that if G > (F + T) * H then the city can *never* flip, and I have never had a city flip on me when I have followed that principle (since the patch where they changed how it works).

Has anyone had a flip under such conditions?

-Sirp.

 

[anarres]

Hmm, if no-one has answered my questions with hard fact or experimantal data by tonight I will run a scenario to test it.

Remember Sirp, unless the culture ratios are very big the chance of a flip will be very small, often well under 1%. It probably isn't hard to not get a flip under these conditions.

 

[TheNiceOne]

Contrary to Sirp, I've always thought that
G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) is the correct formula for number of garrisons necessary. It certainly seems so from Dan Magaha's input. But I haven't tested it though.

I haven't tested your flip calc anarres (I just got informed about it from your thread in General Discussions), so I'm not sure whether it caps the distance ratio correctly. The distance to capital ratio is capped at 1:4, so "D" in the formula must be between 500 and 8000.

 

[Sirp]

anarres: Yes I realize that, so I'm wondering if anyone else has had a flip under such conditions

Because still, not having even *one* after all the turns I've played is reasonably hard. And, I generally play on Deity or at least Emperor, so I am usually badly outgunned in terms of culture by the AIs, so the ratio is in their favor.

TheNiceOne: Yes, I realize that Dan Magaha said that, but I think they might have changed it in a patch after what he said.

Certainly, flips are LOTS less likely as of recent versions.

-Sirp.

 

[aaglo]

I have one question:

How do people use these culture flip calculators?

Can they see the enemy cities? Well, with spies you can

Or is this tool for the scenario makers - like "you have to do anything you can to prevent those three cities in the another continent to prevent from flipping"?

In my games I haven't seen any useful situation to use this kind of calculator. Well, maybe sometimes, when I've wondered about some stubborn city not converting...

 

[Sirp]

aaglo: you can see how many tiles in the city radius are under your control, and you'd have a good idea if they have any of your population in the city.

So you can calculate it without seeing inside the city. You can also see inside the city using an embassy, no need for a spy.

Further, it can be used to determine the chance of one of your cities flipping to another civilization, which is the more common usage for it, at least on high levels.

-Sirp.

 

[aaglo]

Oh yes, I forgot it works both ways