Global Warming

BasketCase said:
When there's more than one possible source that can produce the result you can predict, you need to do more: you need to know what caused that result.

We know the planet had at least two natural temerature spikes (to levels higher than today) with no help from humans. We need to know whether our current spike is human-caused or natural. Right now we don't.
Wrong again! We can explain past and present rises - but present rise only if we include massive human intervention. ou should read the Ruddiman paper and sources quoted therein - but sadly my unwillingness wo let you post nonsense unanswered has led you to 'ignore' me - well, your own problem. I have given information that you demanded - now read it!

If our much-vaunted computer simulations can't account for today's temperature spike without including human-caused global warming in the model, then there must be a problem with the simulations, because we damn well CAN account for today's temperature spike without including human-caused global warming: it could be an entirely natural spike just like ten thousand years ago.
Yeh, yeah, mother nature - you should finally accept that we can well explain those 'natural' spikes with the very same models.
 
Now, this could be ammunition for BOTH sides, depending how ya play yer cards: on the one hand, since Earth gets 900 times more sunlight than Neptune, we could be in 900 times more trouble! Or, if environment and weather patterns respond to a tiny change in sunlight reception on Neptune, it could be argued that a tiny change in solar emissions could have 900 times stronger effects on Earth's temperature and weather, making Earth's weather 900 times more unpredictable, throwing 900 times more chaos into our computer models, and lending 900 times more weight to the theory that Earth's environment is responding to changes in solar emissions.

There is talk of "Global Warming" happening right now on Mars too. We'll need a lot more time to be sure. At the GSA conference in Denver, one of the Mars talks (I think it was the open one) had an animated gif of dramatic ice retreat near the Martian polar caps over the last two years. If anything like that were happening on Earth, it would probably be dramatic enough to sway elections.

It's solar there too, of course.
 
carlosMM said:
crap claim: less environmetally disruptive energy sources than coal and oil are well known. Wind, water, fusion.

???

Wind?

Water?

Fusion?

I have serious problems with your claim above. If you want us to cover North Dakota with windfarms, that's one thing, but don't say that it is less "environmentally disruptive" than coal plants!!!

As for water, we're out of places to put in new hydro plants. In fact, they're highly disruptive to riparian ecology and several prongs of the environmental movement are advocating removal of several plants currently in operation.

Unless the Prometheus initiative at NASA makes some breakthroughs, fusion is off the table.
 
carlosMM said:
Nope, you are constantly (intentionally, methingks) misinterpreting statements - then point out that they are nonsense. Well, YOU mad ethem nonsense.

Quite obviously pikachu was NOT talking about the last 8000 years, but only the last 150 years :rolleyes:

Well, will gothmog get paid if he fins climate change is NOT our fault?

Hell yes!

Will Exxon sell more oil if it is clearly ruining our world?

Logical fallacy: poisoning the well.

And this article was debunked repeatedly. For a variety of reasons.

No, it was never debunked.

In fact, GothMog never even read it. Not in his database.

You cannot test them in vivo if you have only one system. But you can test in a lab no sweat.

The above is a disturbing comment.

The Earth is not a laboratory. You will never have a model (software or glassware) that covers everything the Earth does.
 
carlosMM said:
Yaddayaddayadda, the old 'reduce a complex system to one facor, then show that oenf actor doesn't do it all' argument. Doesn't get any more sensible by reheating!

Handwaving.

Either you can show a direct cause-and-effect between CO2 emission and climate, or not.

It looks more and more like you can't.
 
Gothmog said:
gene90, you just have to read it. As I have done.

Ok. I will make it a point to go read it in the near future, and either post here or PM you when I am done.
 
Care to give some sources that show this?

An environmental geology textbook would be a start...

That there are a lot of negative social, environmental, and economic effects with "renewable" or "green" energy isn't exactly a secret.

Solar is going to require processing thousands of tons of arsenic and gallium, plus paving over Arizona with solar cells, destroying habitat. I hope you have some really good liners in your landfill when those panels' power productivity gradually degrade to the point of having to be replaced, because you don't want them in contact with your water supply. Of course, they eventually will be in contact with your groundwater. Something to think about before you order it, I would say. Oh, and like wind power below, solar plants in Arizona have been proven to kill Federally protected species. This time, it's tortoises.

Wind power is going to kill millions of migratory birds (including Federal protected endangered species) and take up significant parts of the Midwest. Like solar, it will be an eyesore upon the land. That part about Federal protection? It means that if you build a windplant, and it kills certain species, you are subject to criminal prosecution. Which is not my kind of encouragement to develop the resource. Also, like solar, it will have all the maintenance costs of millions of dollars' worth of equipment permanently exposed to degradation the open environment. And unlike solar, it will have moving parts. Which will mean maintenance costs, metal fatigue, and replacement. Which means mining and landfill space. But at least you won't get poisoned by them, although they have been implicated as the cause of some brush fires.

Hydro disrupts riparian ecology and all the good dam sites are taken in the US. In fact, the American environmental movement is calling for dismantlement of several dams because of their environmental impact. It also can be somewhat hazardous for people who live downstream. Hope that the site geologists catch every fault in the walls, and that reservoir-induced seismicity will be light.

All three of the above choices will make our society more vulnerable to climatic fluctuations (natural or human induced). Hydro power production decreased by 25% in the West during the 1980s as a result of prolonged drought.

Geothermal isn't subject to environmental fluctuations as long as you supply your own water. It is, however, essentially a nonrenewable resource once your rocks cool down. Power production capacity at The Geysers in California dropped in half in ten years. It turns out that rock makes a really great insulator. Once the surfaces that were exposed to the pipes were cooled, it would take great lengths of time for the rock to warm back up to its original temperature. Large parts of the system had to be shut down indefinately. Then you have all the cost of drilling, all the cost of corrosion, and the threat of contamination (there's some nasty natural substances in a lot of those thermal waters, heavy metals and the like).

All of the above energy sources are site-specific. That means that instead of being able to place the plant close to the end-user, you have to place them wherever the resource is and run lines to the end user. You lose a lot of energy that way, and with solar and wind your lines always have to big enough to carry maximum capacity--even though the plants actually run at that capacity at very little of the time. Oh, and since we're talking about the future...according to USGS projections (2000), the global copper reserve runs out in...oh...about 15 years. The rise in cost will allow more mines to open on less economically feasible deposits and will generate less return for greater investment, so there will still be copper. BUT it will be expensive. Be sure and factor that in with your cost projection, unless you want to relocate New York City to Nebraska.

What a cheap - and stupoid - shot: you also do not place a coal plant in a residential area. Somehow it seems you are opposed to alternative energy sources and will tkae any argument, idiotic or wrong, to make them appear 'bad'.

Because, if you will excuse me for making the personification, they are bad. In some cases, just unwise, but in some cases, very bad.

And I wish more people would protect the environment from people that advocate them!





You'll have to elaborate a bit on that, as most alternative sources are quite free of CO2, SOx, NOx etc.
I for one have hardly ever heard of serious concerns.

There is more to environmental quality than gas emissions!

Repeat:

There is more to environmental quality than gas emissions!


All participants in the renewable energy debate need to know that and understand it intuitively.

And despite what government agencies and certain environmentalist groups are telling you, installing renewable energy sources isn't going to cost a lot, bring society into harmony with nature, and save endangered species.

Instead it's going to cost a lot, make us more subject to nature's whims (climatically), and drive numerous species to extinction. In the process we will will mine hundreds of millions of tons of metals, lime, and aggregates that could have been conserved. We will be processing on a grand scale toxins that should be left in their mineral states in the ground. And we will be scarring the landscape.

In fact, this comes down entirely to CO2. On every other environmental parameter, modern coal plants win as being greener than what activists are trying to pass off as 'green'.

If there's a dangerous level of gallium in my drinking water, I don't care about CO2. I'd prefer some sulfur dioxide in the air to millions of square miles of giant bird-killing turbines in the air that are noisy and unpredictable enough that some days I don't even have power.

Bull, even the best coal plants are pumping quite a bit of other dirt into the air, along with all the damdge the coal mining does coal is nto really nice.

Research Clean Coal Technology.

By the way, I hope you like stripmining because with solar and wind we're going to be doing a lot of it.
 
Some science fiction author somewhere wrote a book which actually wasn't about global warming--but it did briefly mention the ongoing thunderstorms that hovered around the giant fusion plants in Denver because of the vast amounts of waste heat emitted from the exhaust stacks.....
 
Unfortunately, global warming appears to be fact.

Question 1: Is Global Warming Happening?

Some pertinent facts and observations:

a) Iceland, Arctic, and Antarctic ice sheet melt. Very high.
b) Global mean atmospheric and ocean temperatures rise in excess of 1 degree.
c) Sea level rise: Several Pacific island nations forced to abandon previously habitable islands due to rise. Also construction of sea walls.
d) Significant climate change experienced globally - where I live the weather is now constantly humid, where 10 years ago it was known for it's aridity.


Quesiton 2: Is Global Warming Caused by Humans or is it 'Natural'?

Some pertinent facts and observations:

a) Global mean temperature increases significantly exceed change recorded in previous natural temperature changes.
b) Increase in temperature exhibits direct correlation to increase in 'green-house' gas emitions - see industrialisation and emitions.
c) The affects of said green-house gases are, frankly, a no-brainer. Simple chemistry, simple ecology.
d) Ice core samples recently taken from Antarctica seem to confirm growing evidence and theory that the current increase in temperatures is abnormal - in that far from increase, we are actually due for a period of decrease in temperature.
 
gene90 said:
???

Wind?

Water?

Fusion?

I have serious problems with your claim above. If you want us to cover North Dakota with windfarms, that's one thing, but don't say that it is less "environmentally disruptive" than coal plants!!!
Far less disruptive than changing our climate into an Eocene or Mississippian climate!

As for water, we're out of places to put in new hydro plants. In fact, they're highly disruptive to riparian ecology and several prongs of the environmental movement are advocating removal of several plants currently in operation.
untrue - there's lots of places for small (and thus far less damaging) plants.

Unless the Prometheus initiative at NASA makes some breakthroughs, fusion is off the table.
True - which is why fission is atm a good alternative - as a standin
 
gene90 said:
The above is a disturbing comment.

The Earth is not a laboratory. You will never have a model (software or glassware) that covers everything the Earth does.
It is not even possible to model and entire human. Despite this, it is quite well possible to test medical procedures on simulated humans.

So?

Your claim that GW is a non-falsifyable theory is nonsense.
 
gene90 said:
Handwaving.

Either you can show a direct cause-and-effect between CO2 emission and climate, or not.

It looks more and more like you can't.


This is the most impolite (read: lying) post in a long while here:

A VERY CLEAR AND DIRECT LINK has been shown (read up on gothmogs posts).


You were insinuating that there only is a clear connection if CO2 levels and temp always run parallel. Since you have a high school education it sould be not beyond your grasp that this is not necessarily true.



But, instead of acknowleding that there are MORE factors to climate then CO2, you always pull the same dumb line of 'it doesn't ALWAYS fit'. If then told there are more factors, you shout 'show a connection' - well, back to step one, my friend!
 
gene90 said:
An environmental geology textbook would be a start...
:rolleyes: Interestingly, your posts here give me the feeling that as opposed to me you have never read one!

That there are a lot of negative social, environmental, and economic effects with "renewable" or "green" energy isn't exactly a secret.
Yep - far fewer than with a massive climate change, acid rain and NOx from fossil fules. You will have to show that your claim 'alternative energies are worse' is true, not that 'alternative energies also have negative aspects'. nobody doubts the later, but you claimed the former!

(nice try at a strawman, btw)

Solar is going to require processing thousands of tons of arsenic and gallium, plus paving over Arizona with solar cells, destroying habitat. I hope you have some really good liners in your landfill when those panels' power productivity gradually degrade to the point of having to be replaced, because you don't want them in contact with your water supply. Of course, they eventually will be in contact with your groundwater. Something to think about before you order it, I would say. Oh, and like wind power below, solar plants in Arizona have been proven to kill Federally protected species. This time, it's tortoises.
You're not up to date on the recent solar cell research @ e.g. the Fraunhofer Gesellschaft Institute in Stuttgart. Did i say 'recent'? Heck, the stuff has been published like 5 years ago........ and you still tlak about the silicon wafer cells here..... doh!

Wind power is going to kill millions of migratory birds (including Federal protected endangered species) and take up significant parts of the Midwest. Like solar, it will be an eyesore upon the land. That part about Federal protection? It means that if you build a windplant, and it kills certain species, you are subject to criminal prosecution. Which is not my kind of encouragement to develop the resource. Also, like solar, it will have all the maintenance costs of millions of dollars' worth of equipment permanently exposed to degradation the open environment. And unlike solar, it will have moving parts. Which will mean maintenance costs, metal fatigue, and replacement. Which means mining and landfill space. But at least you won't get poisoned by them, although they have been implicated as the cause of some brush fires.
Funny, wind plants in germany totally fail to kill birds. Must be those inferior dumb US birds.....

Maintenance is indeed up - but it does a lot less damage than mining coal.

Nice try here, comparing a COMPLETE system (wind plant including prod&repair) wiht a PARTIAL system (cola plant, no mine, no landfill for it). Sadly, I recognized your trick - poor gene!

Hydro disrupts riparian ecology and all the good dam sites are taken in the US. In fact, the American environmental movement is calling for dismantlement of several dams because of their environmental impact. It also can be somewhat hazardous for people who live downstream. Hope that the site geologists catch every fault in the walls, and that reservoir-induced seismicity will be light.
Smaller, more dispersend, some (simple) rules about the % of water damed - and again you end up with less damage then from cola mines. Not to talk about cola ruining our climate.

All three of the above choices will make our society more vulnerable to climatic fluctuations (natural or human induced). Hydro power production decreased by 25% in the West during the 1980s as a result of prolonged drought.
but your sentence shouldn't end here: ........prolonged drought due to global climate change, caused by fossil fuel use!

Geothermal isn't subject to environmental fluctuations as long as you supply your own water. It is, however, essentially a nonrenewable resource once your rocks cool down. Power production capacity at The Geysers in California dropped in half in ten years. It turns out that rock makes a really great insulator. Once the surfaces that were exposed to the pipes were cooled, it would take great lengths of time for the rock to warm back up to its original temperature. Large parts of the system had to be shut down indefinately. Then you have all the cost of drilling, all the cost of corrosion, and the threat of contamination (there's some nasty natural substances in a lot of those thermal waters, heavy metals and the like).
Yes, look at the one surefire-shortterm geothermal thingy and then dismiss the entire thing.

If you are smart, look @ Iceland's experiences with geothermal energy.

All of the above energy sources are site-specific. That means that instead of being able to place the plant close to the end-user, you have to place them wherever the resource is and run lines to the end user. You lose a lot of energy that way, and with solar and wind your lines always have to big enough to carry maximum capacity--even though the plants actually run at that capacity at very little of the time.
True, whihc is why plastering prt of the sahara with solar cells and using them to produce H2 from water looks so attractive
Oh, and since we're talking about the future...according to USGS projections (2000), the global copper reserve runs out in...oh...about 15 years.
No you open a can of worms that will get your hands quite dirty: you rely on prictions that have in past shown a very steady record of being utterly totally wrong! Read up on past predictions..... Always totally off!
The rise in cost will allow more mines to open on less economically feasible deposits and will generate less return for greater investment, so there will still be copper. BUT it will be expensive. Be sure and factor that in with your cost projection, unless you want to relocate New York City to Nebraska.
First of all - that prediction is (as usual) not worth the paper it was written on. IIRC, there was, by the same guys, a prediction we'd be out of oil in 2000. :lol:

Second, you seem to value slightly lower costs (coal plant power must be distributed as well) a lot higher than a stable climate... What will it cost if the entire midwest turns desert? What will it cost if NY slowly sinks into the ocean, getting hit by more and more and larger and larger storms? What will it cost then large areas of Canada and the northern US states get so badly blizzarded that the cost of clearing one road to each town will increase tenfold compared to today?

Because, if you will excuse me for making the personification, they are bad. In some cases, just unwise, but in some cases, very bad.

If you classify them as 'bad', then I cannot help but extend that system of classification to fossil fuels.

Well, let's look at them: mines ruin the landscape, require massive landfills, pollute the ground water, lead to groud settling with massiv damage to the surface (roads, houses etc.), coal plants produce huge amounts of SOx, NOx etc that require very expensive filtering, are ineffective below a certain size due to heat loss, convert only a tiny fraction of the energy in the coal into electrical power, and worst of all singificantly screw up our climate!



I'd classify that in your scheme as 'so horribly bad that they are inacceptable'


There is more to environmental quality than gas emissions!
True - but before I worry about a few birds I worry about the global ecosystems!

Repeat:

There is more to environmental quality than gas emissions!

Repeat: there is no environmental quality if all ecosystems in the world get turned upside down. Where it hte quality in Denver, CO, if the surroundign landscape is a desert? Where is the environmental quality?

All participants in the renewable energy debate need to know that and understand it intuitively.
They do - you chose the lesser of two evils! And the lesser one happenes to be the non-fossil-fuel one.

And despite what government agencies and certain environmentalist groups are telling you, installing renewable energy sources isn't going to cost a lot,
get your grammar straight.
bring society into harmony with nature, and save endangered species.
Continued unchecked use of fossil fuels will definately totally ruin OUR world. Period.

Which of the two do you want?

Instead it's going to cost a lot, make us more subject to nature's whims (climatically),
eh, how so, compared to a global temp increase of several degrees?????
and drive numerous species to extinction. In the process we will will mine hundreds of millions of tons of metals, lime, and aggregates that could have been conserved.
Uh, care to compare that to a massive global climate shift? THAT will kill MILLIONS of species!
We will be processing on a grand scale toxins that should be left in their mineral states in the ground. And we will be scarring the landscape.
Oh, are you talking about the massive amounts of toxins needed to get so-called 'clean coal' energy?

In fact, this comes down entirely to CO2. On every other environmental parameter, modern coal plants win as being greener than what activists are trying to pass off as 'green'.
True, they have mad advances. the problem is indeed that they release vast amounts of 'fossil' CO2.

If there's a dangerous level of gallium in my drinking water, I don't care about CO2.
Abolish cars and watches and space research - THAT's what's giving you hgih levels......
but, I doubt you will have drinking water at all in 100 years if the CO2 levels go up as they do now.
I'd prefer some sulfur dioxide in the air to millions of square miles of giant bird-killing turbines in the air that are noisy and unpredictable enough that some days I don't even have power.
Have you ever seen one? It seems not.

Research Clean Coal Technology.
Yep, we need that, until we can get away from coal.

By the way, I hope you like stripmining because with solar and wind we're going to be doing a lot of it.
nonsense! You'll have to back this absrud claim up a lot!
 
10^7 said:
a) Global mean temperature increases significantly exceed change recorded in previous natural temperature changes.
No, they don't. The spike we had in the last century is actually smaller than the last two the planet experienced (which occured before cars or factories even existed).

That the planet has warmed up is a fact. The cause is still under debate, and it will remain under debate long after everybody in this thread gets bored to death and moves on.
 
BasketCase said:
No, they don't. The spike we had in the last century is actually smaller than the last two the planet experienced (which occured before cars or factories even existed).
Untrue - the rise is a lot steeper than previous ones, and this time there are no other factors to explain it.

That the planet has warmed up is a fact.
True.
The cause is still under debate, and it will remain under debate long after everybody in this thread gets bored to death and moves on.
False - the cause is well known and is human-caused increase of green house gas levels.
 
another nice source to get a grasp on how well we by now understand climate:

Higgins, P. (2004): Modeling cilmate and vegetational change since the last glacial maximum using stable isotopes and digital analysis. - JVP 24, Supplement to No.3 (abstracts of papers, sixty-fourth annual meeting, society of vertebrate paleontology), 70A

a very nice and smart way of testing other models - and inital results show they are largely correct.
 
In my normal work I was given a preprint of an article soon to come out by J Hansen (director of NASA Goddard) on their most current coupled climate model runs. I thought I'd post a figure from it here...
F_line.gif

You will notice the many important factors involved.

You will notice the solar forcing, and the 11 year sun spot cycle is clearly evident (and currently on a downward trend).

Also note that this plot is in units of Watts per square meter, that is what a forcing is and that is what is meant by 'global warming'.

In the body of the paper one thing they spend a lot of time on is how well the model did in reproducing various trends recorded by satellites during the large purturbation caused by the Mt. Pinatubo volcano (each of the large negative blips in stratospheric aerosol forcing in the plot is caused by a volcano).

Here's another plot from the paper:
Bar.gif


So again, one can argue the science of global warming. But to dismiss it as 'full of holes' or say it is non-falsifiable is way off base. Obviously waving your hands about and saying 'the earth was once this warm' really means nothing.
 
:thumbsup: @ gothmog!

This is another case of the GW-deniers down and the numebrs piling... 1.....2.....3.....4........
 
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