bshumbera said:
This was my original thinking as well. However, it should be mentioned that cultural victories require Wonders and space victories require Techs. Each of these are also weighted in score, so perhaps each victory does yield statistically insignificant results. I think that we see the highest scores from conquest and domination simply because they are easier to accomplish earlier and time is the largest component of the final score.
If we look at the scores for a given turn (along a particular vertical line in AlanHs plot) after turn 300, an eyeball analysis suggests that domination victories have the least variance (the vertical dispersion), and their mean (at least its point estimate) is clearly higher than the means for spaceship and cultural (but per StevenJoyce, not statistically different). Probably higher than the mean for diplomatic as well, but that is less clear from the plot.
For turns 250 to 300, differences are less clear, except perhaps that cultural is lower for a given turn (the non-linearity issue I mentioned earlier).
Before turn 250, not enough data to say anything.
Looks like perhaps as turn number increases (at least beyond turn 300), domination separates itself from the other victory types in terms of score for a given turn number. This may be because at some point, the cultural, space and diplomatic victories are perhaps a coast to the end (in terms of pop and land) but domination requires active expansion of both to the end.
But a space victory at turn 350 is better than a domination victory at turn 400.
@ StevenJoyce: Im betting that the influence points are all before turn 300, and maybe all before turn 250. If you run the regression for only turns 300 and above (where the data appear to behave better for a linear model), are there any statistically significant differences in slope or intercept? Can we say something definitive about this turn interval?
dV
