160 mph winds! 
New Orleans will be filled with water after a 25ft storm surge!!
New Orleans will be filled with water after a 25ft storm surge!!
Hurricane Katrina becomes Category 4
- Thread starter Ginger_Ale
- Start date
Gogf
Indescribable
They have a satellite image on http://msnbc.com.
party_starter
Now I have to kill you...
CivGeneral said:And heading to New Orleans.
What is up with New Orleans that is attracting the hurricanes. Its not like there is a party going on there.
in the gulf of mexico it gets extreamly warm water from the equator and every so often a wirlpool like thing forms full of this extreamly warm water. hurrricans get stronger from warm water. when katrina crossed over florida it hit one of these wirlpool like things making it stronger and change direction.
i watch the weather chanel
Singularity
Infinite Density
New advisory from:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/281151.shtml 175 MPH winds...
New track...this one puts the eyewall eastern side - the most destructive part of the hurricane smack on New Orleans: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W+gif/144603W_sm.gif
This could be a potential serious disaster - the slower it moves the bigger it's going to get. The faster it moves - the fewer they're going to get evacuated...
New track...this one puts the eyewall eastern side - the most destructive part of the hurricane smack on New Orleans: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W+gif/144603W_sm.gif
This could be a potential serious disaster - the slower it moves the bigger it's going to get. The faster it moves - the fewer they're going to get evacuated...
party_starter
Now I have to kill you...
Ginger_Ale said:
it more than likely will
(it already has)
CNN says it has maximum sustained winds of 175 mph!!
edit:
NOAA's 11am update is out.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.
CNN says it has maximum sustained winds of 175 mph!!
edit:
NOAA's 11am update is out.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 23
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Edt Sun Aug 28 2005
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters Just Measured A 166 Kt Flight Level
Wind In The Northeast Eyewall...which Requires An Additional Upward
Adjustment Of The Current Intensity To 150 Kt. A Drop In The Eye
Gave A Central Pressure Of 907 Mb. Katrina Is Comparable In
Intensity To Hurricane Camille Of 1969...only Larger. Gps
Dropsonde Data From The Noaa G-iv Mission Earlier Today Showed
Katrina's Intense Cyclonic Circulation Extending Through The 200 Mb
Level...with The Flow Spiraling Anticylonically Outward In A
Well-developed Upper-level Outflow Pattern Beyond A Couple Hundred
N Mi From The Center. Fluctuations In Strength...due To Internal
Structural Changes...are Likely Prior To Landfall. Hurricanes
Rarely Sustain Such Extreme Winds For Much Time. However We See
No Obvious Large-scale Effects To Cause A Substantial Weakening The
System...and It Is Expected That The Hurricane Will Be Of Category
4 Or 5 Intensity When It Reaches The Coast.
There Is No Change To The Track Forecast. Katrina Should Gradually
Turn Toward The North...into A Weakness In The Subtropical Ridge
Associated With A Large Mid-latitude Cyclone Over The Northern
United States And Southern Canada. The Official Forecast Track Is
About In The Middle Of The Dynamical Guidance Models...which Are
Rather Tightly Clustered. Recalling That The Average Nhc 24-hour
Track Forecast Error Is About 80 N Mi...the Actual Landfall Point
Could Still Be Anywhere From Southeastern Louisiana To The
Mississippi Coast. Also...we Must Continue To Stress That The
Hurricane Is Not Just A Point On The Map...because Destructive
Winds...torrential Rains...storm Surge...and Dangerous Waves Extend
Well Away From The Eye. It Is Impossible To Specify Which County
Or Parish Will Experience The Worst Weather.
This Advisory Shows An Additional Expansion Of The Wind Field Over
The Eastern Semicircle Based On Aircraft And Surface Observations.
Hurricane Force Winds Are Forecast To Spread At Least 150 N Mi
Inland Along The Path Of Katrina. Consult Inland Warnings Issued
By National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
Forecaster Pasch
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
Initial 28/1500z 26.0n 88.1w 150 Kt
12hr Vt 29/0000z 27.2n 88.9w 145 Kt
24hr Vt 29/1200z 29.1n 89.6w 140 Kt
36hr Vt 30/0000z 31.4n 89.5w 85 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 30/1200z 34.5n 88.5w 45 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 31/1200z 40.0n 84.0w 30 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 01/1200z 45.0n 77.0w 25 Kt...extratropical
120hr Vt 02/1200z 52.0n 69.0w 25 Kt...extratropical
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Edt Sun Aug 28 2005
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters Just Measured A 166 Kt Flight Level
Wind In The Northeast Eyewall...which Requires An Additional Upward
Adjustment Of The Current Intensity To 150 Kt. A Drop In The Eye
Gave A Central Pressure Of 907 Mb. Katrina Is Comparable In
Intensity To Hurricane Camille Of 1969...only Larger. Gps
Dropsonde Data From The Noaa G-iv Mission Earlier Today Showed
Katrina's Intense Cyclonic Circulation Extending Through The 200 Mb
Level...with The Flow Spiraling Anticylonically Outward In A
Well-developed Upper-level Outflow Pattern Beyond A Couple Hundred
N Mi From The Center. Fluctuations In Strength...due To Internal
Structural Changes...are Likely Prior To Landfall. Hurricanes
Rarely Sustain Such Extreme Winds For Much Time. However We See
No Obvious Large-scale Effects To Cause A Substantial Weakening The
System...and It Is Expected That The Hurricane Will Be Of Category
4 Or 5 Intensity When It Reaches The Coast.
There Is No Change To The Track Forecast. Katrina Should Gradually
Turn Toward The North...into A Weakness In The Subtropical Ridge
Associated With A Large Mid-latitude Cyclone Over The Northern
United States And Southern Canada. The Official Forecast Track Is
About In The Middle Of The Dynamical Guidance Models...which Are
Rather Tightly Clustered. Recalling That The Average Nhc 24-hour
Track Forecast Error Is About 80 N Mi...the Actual Landfall Point
Could Still Be Anywhere From Southeastern Louisiana To The
Mississippi Coast. Also...we Must Continue To Stress That The
Hurricane Is Not Just A Point On The Map...because Destructive
Winds...torrential Rains...storm Surge...and Dangerous Waves Extend
Well Away From The Eye. It Is Impossible To Specify Which County
Or Parish Will Experience The Worst Weather.
This Advisory Shows An Additional Expansion Of The Wind Field Over
The Eastern Semicircle Based On Aircraft And Surface Observations.
Hurricane Force Winds Are Forecast To Spread At Least 150 N Mi
Inland Along The Path Of Katrina. Consult Inland Warnings Issued
By National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
Forecaster Pasch
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
Initial 28/1500z 26.0n 88.1w 150 Kt
12hr Vt 29/0000z 27.2n 88.9w 145 Kt
24hr Vt 29/1200z 29.1n 89.6w 140 Kt
36hr Vt 30/0000z 31.4n 89.5w 85 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 30/1200z 34.5n 88.5w 45 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 31/1200z 40.0n 84.0w 30 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 01/1200z 45.0n 77.0w 25 Kt...extratropical
120hr Vt 02/1200z 52.0n 69.0w 25 Kt...extratropical
party_starter
Now I have to kill you...
new oleans is screwd
Strider
In Retrospect
- Joined
- Jan 7, 2002
- Messages
- 8,984
The last hurricane that hit New Orleans left flooding of over 30ft. and that hurricane was much weaker. It looks like New Orleans might be moving to higher ground.
I know it will be a complete diaster if New Orleans is turned into a lake, but you have to admit that it would be awesome to see. Although, I hope it doesn't happen.
I know it will be a complete diaster if New Orleans is turned into a lake, but you have to admit that it would be awesome to see. Although, I hope it doesn't happen.
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
Here is the latest forecast track. Keep in mind that the worst winds are in the right front quadrant with respect to motion. That means at, and just east of the center will get the worst weather.
WillJ, have you moved to higher ground yet?
WillJ, have you moved to higher ground yet?
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
Here is what St. Louis Cathedral in New Orleans would look like, before, and during, a storm surge:
Quick time movie: Storm surge at St. Louis Cathedral
Quick time movie: Storm surge at St. Louis Cathedral
Attachments
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
This areas hurricane past
1779 one of the earliest recorded hurricanes hits here
1879 Just NW by 40 miles with 100mph winds Sept 1st
1887 oct 18th press 29.22 heavy damage from a brush with a hurricane
1893 oct 2nd 2,000 killed in louisiana by storm surge of 13ft 100mph heavy damage in N.E U.S as well
1901 aug 14th a hurricane causes heavy flooding here kills 10
1909 a hurricane just west kills 353 in louisiana sept causes 5 million in damage 110mph wind gusts.
1915 press 28.11 124mph gusts to 140mph 275 killed. By the time it reached New Orleans winds were around cat 2 status. A storm surge of 13 ft reported in lake Pontchatrain,near the city it was closer to 9ft.
1947 an 11ft storm surge press 28.57 51 killed winds 90mph a one min maximum of 110mph very heavy damage,gusts to 125mph,6ft of standing water Newspaper article
1948 sept 3rd press 29.21
1965 sept 10th hurricane Betsy gives the area gusts to 105mph & dumps very heavy rain here.while moving just west . Power outages last for quite some time, Ruth Chris steak house gave away food during this event & helped establish the popular food chain. NOTE: Betsy was a strong cat 4 while approaching land near Grand Isle but by the time she reached her closest point to New Orleans 45miles to the SW her winds were 105mph.
Tropical Storm Frances pushed a 4.5-foot storm surge into St. Charles Parish in 1998, putting U.S. 90 under water for a week .
------------------------
Data courtesy of hurricanecity.com
1779 one of the earliest recorded hurricanes hits here
1879 Just NW by 40 miles with 100mph winds Sept 1st
1887 oct 18th press 29.22 heavy damage from a brush with a hurricane
1893 oct 2nd 2,000 killed in louisiana by storm surge of 13ft 100mph heavy damage in N.E U.S as well
1901 aug 14th a hurricane causes heavy flooding here kills 10
1909 a hurricane just west kills 353 in louisiana sept causes 5 million in damage 110mph wind gusts.
1915 press 28.11 124mph gusts to 140mph 275 killed. By the time it reached New Orleans winds were around cat 2 status. A storm surge of 13 ft reported in lake Pontchatrain,near the city it was closer to 9ft.
1947 an 11ft storm surge press 28.57 51 killed winds 90mph a one min maximum of 110mph very heavy damage,gusts to 125mph,6ft of standing water Newspaper article
1948 sept 3rd press 29.21
1965 sept 10th hurricane Betsy gives the area gusts to 105mph & dumps very heavy rain here.while moving just west . Power outages last for quite some time, Ruth Chris steak house gave away food during this event & helped establish the popular food chain. NOTE: Betsy was a strong cat 4 while approaching land near Grand Isle but by the time she reached her closest point to New Orleans 45miles to the SW her winds were 105mph.
Tropical Storm Frances pushed a 4.5-foot storm surge into St. Charles Parish in 1998, putting U.S. 90 under water for a week .
------------------------
Data courtesy of hurricanecity.com
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
- Joined
- Jan 22, 2003
- Messages
- 22,389
Its not a movie. Those are real people.Strider said:
You are a strange boy. I would describe such as sight as stressful and concerning.strider said:
My prediction is that wind-damage will be modest: outer winds will slow quickly because of it's larger surface area. Flooding is a very different matter, but I think rescue services will be on top of it
Winner
Diverse in Unity
Last week, the Switzerland, Bavaria, Austria and especially the Romania suffered from floodings, at least 40 people died. Now, the US.
Have you noticed the weather is becoming wild a bit in last few years?
Have you noticed the weather is becoming wild a bit in last few years?
h4ppy
You sir, pineapple?
That might be true but since I don't know anyone down there I am hoping that the place gets hit badly so that I can watch it on TV.Bozo Erectus said:
Winner
Diverse in Unity
h4ppy said:
You obviously need more reality shows in your TV
Sorry, but if I said something like that, I'd be accused of anti-americanism.
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
Here is a storm surge animation for the New Orleans area. Notice how much of the terrain could be covered by water in a major hurricane.
LEGEND:
1m : TS - weak CAT1 (60kts)
2m : weak CAT2 (85kts)
3m : weak CAT3 (100kts)
4m : weak CAT4 (115kts)
5m : med CAT4 (125kts)
6m : weak CAT5 (140kts)
7m : strong CAT5 (150kts)
LEGEND:
1m : TS - weak CAT1 (60kts)
2m : weak CAT2 (85kts)
3m : weak CAT3 (100kts)
4m : weak CAT4 (115kts)
5m : med CAT4 (125kts)
6m : weak CAT5 (140kts)
7m : strong CAT5 (150kts)
Attachments
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
- Joined
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- Messages
- 22,389
Oil prices should spike higher tommorow morning. The oil facilities in the gulf will no doubt suffer damage.
