I'm not sure random is actually random.

[Sharples]

9/10 of my games I keep seeing The Shoshone. I'm pretty convinced that the game isn't random.

And yes, in the advanced menu there is no shoshone, all random.

 

[Mahnogard]

I get Arabia, England and China a lot. Every game I have one of the three, often two of them. And I rarely play against more than 5 civs so I'm getting tired of those three. I'm waiting for the author of Really Advanced Setup mod to release an update so that I can disable selection of civs I've already seen enough of. (The mod allows you to remove civs from possible random selection, but that function is currently not working. Fix planned within two weeks.)

 

[Teproc]

9/10 of my games I keep seeing The Shoshone. I'm pretty convinced that the game isn't random.

And yes, in the advanced menu there is no shoshone, all random.

Randomness does not mean balance.

What's the conspiracy here ? Why would it not be random ?

 

[joncnunn]

RNG driven.

Humans are so good at finding patterns, they find them even when there isn't.

 

[redwings1340]

RNG driven.

Humans are so good at finding patterns, they find them even when there isn't.

Basically this. Think about how likely it is that a civ appears in 9/10 games, not necessarily the Shoshone. I don't know the official stats, and it's probably somewhat low, but probably not all too low. If it happens with any civ, the human mind will notice it, and we attribute it to the probability that this particular civ appears a lot. Then, in the future, we associate that one civ appearing as a continuation of that pattern, even though one event doesn't influence the next.

Our minds also like to think that if a 33% chance happens 4 times in a row, it will not happen the next 8 times to balance out, but the most likely scenario is that it will happen 2-4 times over the next 8, because each event is independent. This makes it really hard to disprove something is random.

 

[reddishrecue]

There is a large variety of civilizations for random to choose from and that doesn't mean that the same civilization could be chosen more than once in a row. The way these things are going, it could be possible that there will be more civilizations in the future and that these civilizations will also get chosen more than once in a row. Just because there are many civilizations, it doesn't mean that there isn't a possibility that the same civilizations can be chosen. For example, I've had Wu Zetian chosen for me on random in my last 5 games. I've also had Ahmad Al Mansur and Bismarck chosen as ai civilizations in my last 5 games, approximately.

 

[direblade99]

The only vaguely reliable test of randomness in this case is to have a computer roll 10 000 games of civ and then compile the figures. Even then however freak luck can distort the results.

 

[mclericp]

alexander, catherine and poland are always inside for me. And they often start near me too. I m on emperor now. SO i had to deal with their spam cities...

 

[Autoclave]

From statistics point of view any sample size less than 30 is useless to make conclusions on. How many games have you had?

 

[direblade99]

From statistics point of view any sample size less than 30 is useless to make conclusions on. How many games have you had?

It would much greater than 30 considering how many civs there are in the game and in any particular match right?

 

[InDubioProReo]

I get Mongolia every single game, and then he proceeds to become a runaway.

 

[seanflokstra7]

I almost always have Alexander in my games.

CAN YOU IMAGINE THE ENDLESS DENOUNCING AND WAR AND DESTRUCTION

 

[direblade99]

It occurs to me that people who "always" have particularly obnoxious AI's like greece in their game could perhaps only be noticing the games where they find those civs? The human mind looks for patterns in the obvious, and when an obvious AI like them pops up the brain probably get preoccupied in noticing the games in which they're in.

 

[mrwho]

Yep, it's all just confirmation bias.

 

[Sneaky Snake]

I always seem to get ole Washington in all of my games. That squeaking of his globe at the beginning of the introduction screen is maddening.