As I start, I'll mention all of this is mostly in reference to play on Deity for humans. I've played a good amount of games recently, often cutting off around t150-200, but long enough to see the general trajectory a game will take. I think the community mostly agrees games are usually won and lost in the first half.
There's been a lot of discussion on the side lately about Tradition and Progress, and how the +50% settler production buff made Progress suddenly become overpowered. While this was a big change, Progress had been something of a redheaded stepchild beforehand, so it's surprising how the tables have seemingly turned overnight. What I think though is that this wasn't the biggest change affecting early balance to happen lately.
The biggest change was barbarians.
Authority obviously profited from the barbarian change. Not only do the much more frequently (and conveniently) spawning camps provide a longer and stronger annuity of yields (remember extra gold from camps is also new), but the Authority barbarian fighting combat bonus is key in the earlygame, letting overwhelmed units hold out just enough to survive in many cases. Knowledge of where the camps spawn is more important now too, so a rogue camp spawned 2 tiles from your borders behind woods gets one or two less turns to surprise you with. It's easy to see why the first hundred turns of Authority are much better, and how that'll roll into much more consistent performance for Authority, even if you don't push for an early war.
With Progress, it's more subtle. Progress doesn't get rewarded much for fighting barbarians, though those hits of 50
can be strong early on. But Progress has the tools available to fight them. The first four policy unlocks of Progress (full top and right) give it a lot of 
, and are quite powerful policies in general, with the last two unlocks being one very long term policy and one happiness one that can be easily held off for last. This gives Progress build orders a lot of slack. Progress can generally set up a strong economy while still being able to tech to good units and spend the effort to build a good army. This isn't a hard thing for Progress, it just sort of happens automatically, you don't have to sacrifice much. Progress also loves to ICS its cities at minimum distance, building a tight well connected empire that's easy to defend.
Overall, Progress has the tools necessary to ride out the barbarian storm, but Tradition does not.
The strongest part of the Tradition tree is at the end, in the last two unlocks; the first four policies are by comparison a little weak. Sovereignty gives Faith and an Artist sure, but Faith won't compound any returns at all until Founding around t80-95, and more culture just pushes you along the Tradition tree itself. The GP farmed by the policies takes a while to pay off, everything is very long term.
As a result, Tradition build orders are usually greedy. To build a consistent army early, Tradition often must make serious sacrifices, especially with its very limited ability to make things. It has enough trouble getting Shrines and Monuments in its secondary cities, much less doing anything else in good time. Even science is a little challenging until unlock 4, and you might find yourself chasing lux and pantheon techs and being left with Warriors and Slingers into the barbarian Spearman ages. Also, if you're going to go Tall long term, you don't want a huge surplus of cities and want to be choosier with economic or defensive locations, meaning you can be spread out more at the start and more vulnerable to barbarians spawning inside of you. You have much less roads early too, so without horses your army will tend to be very immobile.
The long term of Tradition is very good, and we used to see that achieved much easier with greedy orders. You would settle in such a way not to anger nearby AI, play politics carefully, and observe the world situation with a close eye to get ready to spring and make an army and walls all at once, right when it was obviously going to be needed. That's no longer possible, you need it right away, or a random deluge of spawning camps could basically cripple you. This has had really nasty effects on Tradition openings, it just feels the impact of the barbarian change in a more visceral way than Progress does.
I legitimately think Tradition is the weakest opening tree now, from being the strongest as little as four months ago. Authority got a lot more consistent, Tradition got a lot less consistent, and Progress kinda stayed the same, with the settler buff giving it enough slack to have more army and fight off the increased barb waves. The change to make Artistry wider and less entwined with Tradition hurt it too, depriving it of the easy synergies there. It can still easily go Artistry, but it's not as good anymore, and more and more often I see Statecraft as the true tall tree to pick with Tradition now.
What's to be done about it? I dunno, but I would rather see buffs or possibly sidegrades (for more early term value and less late, or more slack and defensive ability) to Tradition than thinking everything can be solved if we nerf Progress enough.
There's been a lot of discussion on the side lately about Tradition and Progress, and how the +50% settler production buff made Progress suddenly become overpowered. While this was a big change, Progress had been something of a redheaded stepchild beforehand, so it's surprising how the tables have seemingly turned overnight. What I think though is that this wasn't the biggest change affecting early balance to happen lately.
The biggest change was barbarians.
Authority obviously profited from the barbarian change. Not only do the much more frequently (and conveniently) spawning camps provide a longer and stronger annuity of yields (remember extra gold from camps is also new), but the Authority barbarian fighting combat bonus is key in the earlygame, letting overwhelmed units hold out just enough to survive in many cases. Knowledge of where the camps spawn is more important now too, so a rogue camp spawned 2 tiles from your borders behind woods gets one or two less turns to surprise you with. It's easy to see why the first hundred turns of Authority are much better, and how that'll roll into much more consistent performance for Authority, even if you don't push for an early war.
With Progress, it's more subtle. Progress doesn't get rewarded much for fighting barbarians, though those hits of 50
can be strong early on. But Progress has the tools available to fight them. The first four policy unlocks of Progress (full top and right) give it a lot of , and are quite powerful policies in general, with the last two unlocks being one very long term policy and one happiness one that can be easily held off for last. This gives Progress build orders a lot of slack. Progress can generally set up a strong economy while still being able to tech to good units and spend the effort to build a good army. This isn't a hard thing for Progress, it just sort of happens automatically, you don't have to sacrifice much. Progress also loves to ICS its cities at minimum distance, building a tight well connected empire that's easy to defend.Overall, Progress has the tools necessary to ride out the barbarian storm, but Tradition does not.
The strongest part of the Tradition tree is at the end, in the last two unlocks; the first four policies are by comparison a little weak. Sovereignty gives Faith and an Artist sure, but Faith won't compound any returns at all until Founding around t80-95, and more culture just pushes you along the Tradition tree itself. The GP farmed by the policies takes a while to pay off, everything is very long term.
As a result, Tradition build orders are usually greedy. To build a consistent army early, Tradition often must make serious sacrifices, especially with its very limited ability to make things
. It has enough trouble getting Shrines and Monuments in its secondary cities, much less doing anything else in good time. Even science is a little challenging until unlock 4, and you might find yourself chasing lux and pantheon techs and being left with Warriors and Slingers into the barbarian Spearman ages. Also, if you're going to go Tall long term, you don't want a huge surplus of cities and want to be choosier with economic or defensive locations, meaning you can be spread out more at the start and more vulnerable to barbarians spawning inside of you. You have much less roads early too, so without horses your army will tend to be very immobile.The long term of Tradition is very good, and we used to see that achieved much easier with greedy orders. You would settle in such a way not to anger nearby AI, play politics carefully, and observe the world situation with a close eye to get ready to spring and make an army and walls all at once, right when it was obviously going to be needed. That's no longer possible, you need it right away, or a random deluge of spawning camps could basically cripple you. This has had really nasty effects on Tradition openings, it just feels the impact of the barbarian change in a more visceral way than Progress does.
I legitimately think Tradition is the weakest opening tree now, from being the strongest as little as four months ago. Authority got a lot more consistent, Tradition got a lot less consistent, and Progress kinda stayed the same, with the settler buff giving it enough slack to have more army and fight off the increased barb waves. The change to make Artistry wider and less entwined with Tradition hurt it too, depriving it of the easy synergies there. It can still easily go Artistry, but it's not as good anymore, and more and more often I see Statecraft as the true tall tree to pick with Tradition now.
What's to be done about it? I dunno, but I would rather see buffs or possibly sidegrades (for more early term value and less late, or more slack and defensive ability) to Tradition than thinking everything can be solved if we nerf Progress enough.
