nickytootricky
Warlord
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Do you bulb into Scientific Theory and Plastics? I usually just keep all mine til the end.
June 2015 Academy vs Bulbing Discussion
- Thread starter claudiupb
- Start date
With the above calculations, even with an Observatory an Academy does not accumulate enough science to beat a late game bulb. But that does not mean that it's not worth it, because I did not factor in the benefits for getting faster milestones (ST, Plastics, and maybe Penicillin)
If you do the same calculations with a T20 Academy (Babylon), it will add ~9000 beakers over the course of the game (with the above milestones), so if your late game bulb is greater than that (which can easily be), then even that Academy does not gain you science to even it out.
But it is without a doubt that the first Babylon academy is very OP. Just because it saves at least 10 turns for the education time is enough proof that it's better than a late game bulb. For a precise calculation we need to see how the science Milestones are affected by the Academy, and also add the extra beakers for the earlier milestones.
In order to see how Milestones are affected we need to look at the current BPT, the higher it is, the less change it is for an academy to pay off. So a post-education academy would be worth it if you are a little behind on science, in order to get ST sooner and also get Plastics sooner. If it can save you 7-8 turns for plastics it will be worth it.
stormtrooper412
Peacemongering Turtlesaur
One could argue that bulbing ST and Plastics is pretty much always a good idea but that requires more math. Intuitively, burning a GS that early for faster ST/Plastics does not even out with a ~10k worth of bulb.
Acken
Deity
You guys are aware Manpanzee's small point is that planting is actually a (small) loss in food/hammers right ? 
You could argue that plastics is always good to bulb (if you can make the labs of course). Because it will give you labs 8 turns earlier at the cost of a "non-lab" scientist. But that non lab scientist is approximately 8turns*lab_value worth less than a lab scientist so you will likely always come approximately even (growth aside). Add GPP from the lab on top of it.
You could argue that plastics is always good to bulb (if you can make the labs of course). Because it will give you labs 8 turns earlier at the cost of a "non-lab" scientist. But that non lab scientist is approximately 8turns*lab_value worth less than a lab scientist so you will likely always come approximately even (growth aside). Add GPP from the lab on top of it.
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1) Interesting, and I agree with the beakers being approximately even. At that stage of the game time to finish does start to become a factor. Bulbing into Plastics might have more to do with getting enough turns to build all the labs and waiting for beakers to plateau before bulbing efficiently. Order wants even earlier labs compared to Freedom.
2) How valuable are GPPs? At that stage the extra GPPs are either extremely valuable (extra GS) or worthless (same final GS count). We can approximate the conversion:
Approximate GPP -> beaker conversion calc:
Assume: 10 natural GS; bulb values of {2k, 5k, 5k, 10k ... , 10k}
Gives 14.9 beakers per GPP (that are successfully converted into GS)
Assume: 14 natural GS; bulb values of {2k, 5k, 5k, 10k ... , 10k}
Gives 11.6 beakers per GPP (that are successfully converted into GS)
A single scientist with Garden + Humanism + Pisa + Ideo Tenet gives 6 GPP
-> By the mid-game, each Scientist specialist that eventually spawns a GS is worth around 70 -> 90 beakers a turn from their GPP contribution! In practice this is devalued by stranded GPP that are not successfully converted and by missing gardens (by up to half, maybe). Still, crazy value, no? Am I missing something?
Acken
Deity
This devaluation is really big though. It's pretty common to have a lot of 500+ GPP accumulated for 0 output. This decreases your averages by a good chunk. Considering the sum of GPP you used in the first average is 5500 (=100 * (10*11/2)) having a GPP pool increased by a single 500 GPP is an increase of around 10% of the denominator.
On the other hand the value of the GPP from the faster labs themselves is more centered around whether or not you can get a valuable extra GS (assuming a science victory). It's a rather binary valuation in my opinion. The value of the extra GPP being either 0 or 10000. Or rather 0 vs (less turn to wait for the last GS)
As long as non boosted cities still produce their GS in time the value of GPP acceleration (by only 8 turns) is null. It only matters for the very last city.
These 8 turns of extra GPP are worth 8 * 3 * 1.75 = 42 ignoring national epic. Considering a total GPP generation of such a city will be at the end: 3*4*1.75 = 21. You are effectively accelerating GS generation by 2 turns.
The probability of 2 turns for a faster GS making a difference depends on the game but making the right move could be the difference between having to wait 2 turns for that last GS before finishing hubble or not.
On the other hand the value of the GPP from the faster labs themselves is more centered around whether or not you can get a valuable extra GS (assuming a science victory). It's a rather binary valuation in my opinion. The value of the extra GPP being either 0 or 10000. Or rather 0 vs (less turn to wait for the last GS)
As long as non boosted cities still produce their GS in time the value of GPP acceleration (by only 8 turns) is null. It only matters for the very last city.
These 8 turns of extra GPP are worth 8 * 3 * 1.75 = 42 ignoring national epic. Considering a total GPP generation of such a city will be at the end: 3*4*1.75 = 21. You are effectively accelerating GS generation by 2 turns.
The probability of 2 turns for a faster GS making a difference depends on the game but making the right move could be the difference between having to wait 2 turns for that last GS before finishing hubble or not.
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Yes, I also emphasized the binary payoff above. I was doing my best to put an expected beaker value on that effect. In your estimate the extra GPP from Labs aren't as valuable since those 2-turns often won't matter. How often does that 2-turn earlier last GS matter? I'd argue around 1/5 of the time if you assume GS every 10 turns(*) -> average beaker value of around 1/5*1.5 turns of end game research since half the time the 2-turn earlier GS will only gain 1 turn on Hubble. So about 450 beakers in expectation. Not very much.
(*)5 cities at 20-30 GPP should give a late game GS every 10 turns or so, on average.
Bulbing to Schools might be more interesting in the GPP valuation since that also gives faster access to labs for compounding effects.
At some point stacking more GPP gives an additional GS (or, equivalently, the gap to the last GS grows to 8+ turns). How strong would Humanism have to be to have priority over Secularism?
(*)5 cities at 20-30 GPP should give a late game GS every 10 turns or so, on average.
Bulbing to Schools might be more interesting in the GPP valuation since that also gives faster access to labs for compounding effects.
At some point stacking more GPP gives an additional GS (or, equivalently, the gap to the last GS grows to 8+ turns). How strong would Humanism have to be to have priority over Secularism?
Acken
Deity
Well first we should agree that humanism and secularism are only 15turns from each other and most likely compound only on universities and the first two guilds.
This means humanism will give you 0.25*15*6=22.5 gpp in all cities
Secularism depends on city numbers and % bonuses but worst case scenario 4 cities no observatories: 1.1*(2*6*1.88 + 2*2*1.33*3)*15 = 635
This means humanism will give you 0.25*15*6=22.5 gpp in all cities
Secularism depends on city numbers and % bonuses but worst case scenario 4 cities no observatories: 1.1*(2*6*1.88 + 2*2*1.33*3)*15 = 635
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Hah. Would you rather have $1 dollar today or 50 cents 2 years from now? I don't think there is any danger of Secularism losing its lustre. 
Humanism would have to be 3-4 times as strong to consider a switch with your reasonable assumptions.
In general, I still think GPPs are very valuable, just not when you look at 8-15 turns of only one component. I think it is safe to say the bulbing acceleration effect on GPP accumulation is relatively minor. Bulb or don't bulb into science buildings for other reasons.
Humanism would have to be 3-4 times as strong to consider a switch with your reasonable assumptions.
In general, I still think GPPs are very valuable, just not when you look at 8-15 turns of only one component. I think it is safe to say the bulbing acceleration effect on GPP accumulation is relatively minor. Bulb or don't bulb into science buildings for other reasons.
Acken
Deity
Yes. But my original point was that theoretically bulbing to accelerate labs by 8 turns is equivalent to bulbing 8 turns after labs (because the faster lab science is approximately the science you'd get from a GS 8 turns after labs). Faster GPP is just icing on the cake
GerrardCapashen
Benalish Master-at-Arms
You are always going to lose 1 food or hammer early game (generally 2 after chemistry and fertilizer) by planting. Putting the academy on the forest does save the worker turns chopping but you are still losing the camp, which would normally be +1 production there.
I personally put academies on horses, iron, cattle, or dry grassland/plains. Either way you want to be sure it's a tile you will always want to work, whether that's a food tile or a production tile.
I have never put an academy on bananas, but I assume you lose the jungle and thus the +2 science that you would normally get, which seems worse than losing +1 food or production from a non-river farm or mine.
Yes, planting an academy will cost 1 food or 1 hammer (if you plant wisely), but holding the GS to bulb later in the game will cost unit maintenance, the amount of which rises as the game goes along. So pick your cost - food, hammer or gold. Nothing is costless.
I still think deer grassland is the best because it doesn't reduce growth. You're not going to miss 1 hammer and 1 gold when you can work a 4 food tile. The best I think you can do is to have the early academy and a strong food tile together.
And if you really are starved for hammers you can use production cargo ships, ironworks or focus on gold and commerce to buy what you need.
And if you really are starved for hammers you can use production cargo ships, ironworks or focus on gold and commerce to buy what you need.
Acken
Deity
Yeah there is no doubt about it but that's not what is about. The point that started this discussion is that planting this academy has an opportunity cost linked to the improvement lost on the tile you must now work.
In comparison, not settling has a gold cost.
In comparison, not settling has a gold cost.
Sure so to go back on topic the overwhelming evidence says to plant an early academy (or 2 if Babylon or Maya) otherwise save your Scientists to bulb after you have Research Labs in every city. The possible exception is to bulb scientists early to speed up Scientific Theory or Plastics providing you have the gold or means to build the Public School or Research Lab immediately.
But what about Culture Victories. How do you optimise science for this approach?
I think it would be good to have some more culture victory civs in the Diety game maybe France so this can be fleshed out a bit more.
In order to estimate that, you need to calculate the number of GS you will have over the course of the game, and how many bulbs you need. For CV you need also need fast Archeology, Refrigeration, Internet and sometimes Radar, so you will be bulbing earlier than in a SV.
I have 0 experience with CV on deity, but from what I read getting fast Plastics is situational. So you are not trying to maximize the science output towards the late game, like in a SV, and you will also have fewer Great Scientists, so depending on whether you have enough scientists, you can plant or not.
You also need to consider that later Plastics, and Atomic Theory mean even a smaller output from an Academy overall, but on the other hand the science from the academy will contribute to the early bulbs, so in my opinion it really comes down to having enough Great Scientists to bulb things faster.
I have 0 experience with CV on deity, but from what I read getting fast Plastics is situational. So you are not trying to maximize the science output towards the late game, like in a SV, and you will also have fewer Great Scientists, so depending on whether you have enough scientists, you can plant or not.
You also need to consider that later Plastics, and Atomic Theory mean even a smaller output from an Academy overall, but on the other hand the science from the academy will contribute to the early bulbs, so in my opinion it really comes down to having enough Great Scientists to bulb things faster.
stormtrooper412
Peacemongering Turtlesaur
CV is a bit different. What I like to do is not bulb everyone and instead time the Ratio finisher on Internet while saving the remaining GS for Radar because usually I'd need both, my CVs need some work
Yes I would agree with this. Much of your capability to generate tourism comes from how many Cultural Wonders you can build and archaeological sites you can beat the AI to. This is the foundation to Tourism and every culture wonder, artefact and landmark is going to shave a lot of turns off your victory time.
I tend to think you want to bulb some of your scientists between Acoustics and Archaeology mainly to get Sistine Chapel, Louvre & Eiffel Tower. Missing these key Wonders is really going to hurt down the track.
Oxford University is very good to get access to Radio quickly so you can secure an early Ideology and hopefully get the 2 free Tenets.
Then I think you want to start bulbing to get to Refrigeration (Hotels) and towards Telecommunications and Internet keeping Radar in mind as Airports also grant a huge boost to tourism. Getting Hotels, National Visitor Centre and early Internet is key. Also the quicker you open later era's the more diplomats you get access to.
On the other hand GS costs GPT.You guys are aware Manpanzee's small point is that planting is actually a (small) loss in food/hammers right ?
It should probably be pointed out that in most cases the food opportunity cost will increase by 1 post Fertilizer (while in the rest, the hammer opportunity cost increases by 1 with Chemistry)
On the other side, the GPT opportunity cost increases both by turn number AND by total number of units of all types you have.
This appears to result in if you have are playing wide, your costs are heavier for saving scientists than for peaceful four city tall. (And if you are conquering, your costs are higher yet)
This results in a highly player specific style as to which one minimizes your costs. But those who are quickest at winning (via having ruthlessly streamlined their play to avoid distractions) have less opportunity costs for hoarding GS.
On the other side, the GPT opportunity cost increases both by turn number AND by total number of units of all types you have.
This appears to result in if you have are playing wide, your costs are heavier for saving scientists than for peaceful four city tall. (And if you are conquering, your costs are higher yet)
This results in a highly player specific style as to which one minimizes your costs. But those who are quickest at winning (via having ruthlessly streamlined their play to avoid distractions) have less opportunity costs for hoarding GS.
