dojoboy,
yep, you're right. I found the article on the forums I was mis-remembering. Here're the numbers:
* If your elite is attacking and you do not have the Heroic Epic wonder, 1/16
* If your elite is attacking and you have the Heroic Epic wonder, 1/12
* If your elite is defending and you do not have the Heroic Epic wonder, 1/32
* If your elite is defending and you have the Heroic Epic wonder, 1/24
The militaristic civilization attribute does not affect the chance of getting a leader directly, but it gives you a better chance of your units being promoted to elite, so in an indirect way it has an affect.
The following numbers from Mike B. Firaxis:
Odds of promotion are based on whether the civ has the Militaristic trait or not and whether the victory was against barbarians or not. Basically, chances of promotion are halved for victories over Barbarians and doubled for Militaristic civs.
non-militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8
non-militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 4
regular to veteran: 1 in 8
veteran to elite: 1 in 16
militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 1
regular to veteran: 1 in 2
veteran to elite: 1 in 4
militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8
Some units, like tanks, can attack mutiple times on one turn. Each of these attacks can promote the attacking unit or create a leader (if none of the restrictions above apply). So it is possible to start with a veteran tank that has not yet attacked, and on the 1st attack it gets promoted to elite and on the 2nd it creates a leader. This should not happen very often, though.