New search for MH370

[Moriarte]

The flight disappeared on the 8th of March 2014 with 239 people on board. Two extensive operations were performed by Ocean Infinity, the company famous for finding long-lost sunken ships using AUV's - autonomous underwater vehicles, torpedo-shaped, working in packs to scan seabed with LIDAR at extreme depths, beyond 4km. Alas, hundreds of millions spent by Malaysian government to no avail. Both extensive searches bring no clues as to final location. However, several recent theoretical breakthroughs prompted Ocean Infinity to enter into agreement with Malaysian government late last year, where the company will search in new locations, established by three distinct groups of aviation experts, scientists and radio enthusiasts as the most probable final resting place. Ocean Infinity shall pay for all expenses themselves, but if they find the airplane, Malaysian government will compensate the company to the tune of $70 million.

But where will they look? Here are three leading theories, all of which disagree on the location, and yet, all of them will be checked by Ocean Infinity:

Spoiler Three leading theories :

1. Trajectory reconstruction by Jean-Luc Marchand and Captain Patrick Blelly.

https://www.mh370-caption.net/wp-content/uploads/Blelly-Analysis-of-Flight-MH370.pdf

The two gentlemen wrote a book and analytical summary (you can read the latter in the link above) on the MH370 disappearance. In short, they meticulously re-calculated data on fuel consumption, satellite arcs, Rolls-Royce engine satellite data and meteorological data on the day of disappearance. They found that the final resting place is likely 38 nautical miles further South from the initial search area, marked by yellow on a map below:

2. The Whisper location (WSPR) by Richard Godfrey et al.

Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

WSPRnet (Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Network) is a global, crowd-sourced system used by amateur radio operators to track and log faint radio signals. In the context of the MH370 search, researchers have explored whether WSPRnet data—due to its continuous capture of weak radio transmissions—could detect and record the aircraft’s potential flight path via small disturbances in radio propagation. By analyzing anomalies in historical WSPR logs, investigators hope to gain additional insights into MH370’s last known movements over the Indian Ocean.

The determined crash location of MH370 was at 29.128°S 99.934°E, which is outside the previous ATSB and Ocean Infinity underwater search areas.

Here is the final resting place according to WSPRnet:

3. Drift Modelling by Bobby Ulich, Ph.D.and Victor Iannello, Sc.D (IG - Independent Group)

Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

Dr. Bobby Ulich and Dr. Victor Iannello conducted detailed drift modeling to track how potential debris from MH370 could have moved across the Southern Indian Ocean after the aircraft’s disappearance. By combining ocean current data, wind patterns, and known debris discoveries (e.g., on African coastlines and nearby islands), they sought to pinpoint more accurately the likely crash site. Their analyses provided time-lapse estimates of drifting routes and arrival times, which, in turn, helped refine and constrain potential search areas for the missing aircraft.

Finally, we combine the 3 search sites into one picture, below. (West Australian coast on the right.)

As of two days ago, it was reported that Ocean Infinity's search ship "Armada 7806" evaded two storms of diabolical proportions in Southern Indian Ocean to finally reach the search area and submerge first AUV's.

Good luck to the search team!

I will keep you posted on any significant developments.

Vote, which theory do you think is more likely/closest to the final resting place.

And feel free to pursue any tangent of this rather dark story.

Spoiler MH370 Documentaries :

This is one of those rare few stories, which I just couldn't let go during the last 10 years. I am very happy determined people decided to resume the search. Here are a couple of documentaries, which, in my mind, tower above all others in terms of quality of information. The top one explains the Whisper breakthrough, the bottom one explores pilot suicide scenario:

 

[Birdjaguar]

I hope they find it. The top video was excellent.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

The only explanation I can find is that the pilot went crazy and crashed the plane into the ocean after killing or hitting the other pilot. That's why he sounded busy in the last communications before making the sharp turn.

 

[PhroX]

To add to the two videos in the OP, I highly recommend Admiral Cloudberg's writeup.

 

[Birdjaguar]

To add to the two videos in the OP, I highly recommend Admiral Cloudberg's writeup.

From the end of this link:

That left Captain Zaharie as the only viable suspect. Here too, investigations seemingly came up short. The Malaysian accident report, published in 2018, described him as a flawless pilot with no problems in his personal life and no obvious motivation to make a plane full of people disappear. But was that really the whole truth? In fact, the evidence shows Zaharie to be a much more complicated person than Malaysian authorities portrayed him to be.

Captain Zaharie Ahmed Shah, seen in a screenshot from his YouTube channel. (Zaharie Ahmed Shah, via YouTube)
The most widely reported piece of evidence tying Zaharie to the disappearance was a course he had charted on his home flight simulator about a month before the crash. Zaharie had a number of hobbies, including paragliding and flying model airplanes, but he also spent a lot of time at home on his computer playing flight simulator games. He sometimes uploaded videos of himself playing on his YouTube channel, where he comes off as affable and knowledgeable, if a bit socially awkward.

In 2014, a leaked Malaysian police report revealed that among Zaharie’s saved flight simulator sessions was a very odd route which ran up the Strait of Malacca, turned south after passing Sumatra, and then flew straight down into the Southern Indian Ocean before terminating in the vicinity of the seventh arc. Not only did the track resemble MH370’s actual flight path, it also contained a number of other intriguing details. For example, the track wasn’t really a track — rather, it was a series of brief clips lasting no more than a few seconds each, indicating that Zaharie had programmed it in advance then skipped along it to various points without actually playing through the entire hours-long flight. Furthermore, although initial reports indicated that the track had been intentionally saved by the user, later analysis showed that it was kept only in the system files, and certainly was not meant to be found. Was this a dry run? It seems too odd to be a coincidence.

In yellow, the actual flight path of the airplane. In red, the flight path found on Zaharie’s simulator. (New York Magazine)

Zaharie’s social life was also not as smooth as Malaysian authorities portrayed it to be. A combination of the leaked police report and interviews with people who knew him revealed that he had separated from his wife on an informal basis and was living alone in the family home. He had apparently been feeling lonely and sad for a long time before the disappearance. He admitted to friends that he sometimes spent his time off pacing around empty rooms, waiting for his next flight. Others said he seemed to be suffering from clinical depression. He had been obsessively stalking a pair of young models on social media. He was said to have slept regularly with the flight attendants, and his wife allegedly knew. He also was said to have had a number of mistresses, including one who was married. The woman in question denied that their affair was sexual in nature, and reported that they had stopped seeing each other months before the plane disappeared. However, she also told interviewers that she had exchanged several WhatsApp messages with Zaharie just a couple of days before the crash. What was in them she refused to say, citing a fear that they would be misinterpreted.

 

[Moriarte]

The only explanation I can find is that the pilot went crazy and crashed the plane into the ocean after killing or hitting the other pilot. That's why he sounded busy in the last communications before making the sharp turn.

There was likely no need to kill or hit the younger pilot. Just locking him out of the cabin on a fake excuse (bring me coffee, mate) and depressurising the passenger cabin would be enough. There is evidence to that effect. Second video in the documentary section of the opening post explores this at length. Since the 2001 terrorist attacks airlines have begun improving pilot security as defence mechanism against hijackings. Reinforced doors, improved locks. Captain, if he was indeed the culprit, could have abused those safety measures to lock out the first officer.

I agree with you: given all the evidence, it's hard to ignore a multitude of little things that could only be done from the cockpit of the Boeing 777. Which points to the captain as being instrumental to the hijacking. That was difficult for me to accept for quite a while, even though it's talked about from day 1. Even Australian PM at the time (Tony Abbot, iirc) mentions, quite confidently, that during the first weeks of the international search, of which he was part, emerged a clear understanding among top investigators that MH370 disappearance was pilot suicide.

Inside, I still couldn't accept it. How can a professional with 30 years experience, squeaky clean record, a beautiful wife and 3 kids and a YouTube channel, where he teaches common folk to fix house appliances - how can this kind of man senselessly kill 239 people? He wasn't just a professional, btw. He is what you would call a king of pilots in Malaysian Air. An instructor, examiner and the most experienced pilot all-in-one.

He does come off as an idealist, given his charity work for political party and the YouTube fix/flight sim videos. A little socially awkward, if that is even a crime. And yet, the more I read, the more apparent it became that in order to pull off 777 disappearance a pilot of Shah’s caliber was an essential ingredient.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

There was likely no need to kill or hit the younger pilot. Just locking him out of the cabin on a fake excuse (bring me coffee, mate) and depressurising the passenger cabin would be enough. There is evidence to that effect. Second video in the documentary section of the opening post explores this at length. Since the 2001 terrorist attacks airlines have begun improving pilot security as defence mechanism against hijackings. Reinforced doors, improved locks. Captain, if he was indeed the culprit, could have abused those safety measures to lock out the first officer.

I agree with you: given all the evidence, it's hard to ignore a multitude of little things that could only be done from the cockpit of the Boeing 777. Which points to the captain as being instrumental to the hijacking. That was difficult for me to accept for quite a while, even though it's talked about from day 1. Even Australian PM at the time (Tony Abbot, iirc) mentions, quite confidently, that during the first weeks of the international search, of which he was part, emerged a clear understanding among top investigators that MH370 disappearance was pilot suicide.

Inside, I still couldn't accept it. How can a professional with 30 years experience, squeaky clean record, a beautiful wife and 3 kids and a YouTube channel, where he teaches common folk to fix house appliances - how can this kind of man senselessly kill 239 people? He wasn't just a professional, btw. He is what you would call a king of pilots in Malaysian Air. An instructor, examiner and the most experienced pilot all-in-one.

He does come off as an idealist, given his charity work for political party and the YouTube fix/flight sim videos. A little socially awkward, if that is even a crime. And yet, the more I read, the more apparent it became that in order to pull off 777 disappearance a pilot of Shah’s caliber was an essential ingredient.

Intentional cabin depressurization makes sense, however I wonder if pilot has the ability to disable oxygen mask automatic release through a circuit breaker or something. Or mask release is completely automatic and autonomous. Second video doesn't consider that point.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Intentional cabin depressurization makes sense, however I wonder if pilot has the ability to disable oxygen mask automatic release through a circuit breaker or something. Or mask release is completely automatic and autonomous. Second video doesn't consider that point.

The cabin oxygen masks have a limited amount of available supply. Once it is gone they all die.

 

[PhroX]

Yeah, the cabin masks are just there to keep the passengers safe long enough for the pilot to make an emergency descent to below about 10kft - i.e. when the external atmosphere is breathable. They'll only last 10-15 mins IIRC. The oxygen supply for the pilots on the other hand is designed to last until they can land the plane through not just lack of pressurisation, but also smoke and other contaminants, so will last much longer.

Flying above 30kft for a hour without pressurisation and everyone in the cabin is permananetly incapacitated regardless of the drop down masks deploying.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

So, easy peasy for the crazy pilot to eliminate anyone else aboard. In any case the detail of the altitude indication disappearing of the ATC screen momentarily before the transponder went totally silent closes the case about it being intentional.

 

[PhroX]

So, easy peasy for the crazy pilot to eliminate anyone else aboard. In any case the detail of the altitude indication disappearing of the ATC screen momentarily before the transponder went totally silent closes the case about it being intentional.

Yep. Without finding the wreckage, we'll probably never know for sure what happened (and even if we do, chances are the FDR and CVR are too damaged), but mass murder on the part of the pilot fits the evidence we have very well, and, for an expeienced airman, wouldn't have been that difficult to pull off if he prepared well.

 

[Lord Shadow]

I suppose there's still stuff about his profile that we don't know (i.e. a history of violence), given the known social and psychological details point to a troubled but ultimately caring person. Mental health that if bad enough may lead to self-harm, but taking almost 300 people with you?

Who knows. Maybe in the event of a psychotic break, you just DGAF. But... the simulator-related evidence points at premeditation.

 

[Perfection]

I have my own theory... listen up!

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As an aside, Mentor Pilot is an EXCELLENT youtube channel, and I heartily recommend.