promotion probabilities

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by Isak
I wouldn't even believe it after 1000 tries, but I can see your're all starting to agree with that. Like Kring says computer randomness is never really random.

If the random numbers behave properly, and I believe they do, then 1000 trials should give you a very credible answer to whether an event happens with a 1/12 probability (one "epic" type wonder gets applied to the odds) or 1/6 (2 "epics").

I did think of a problem with the way I wanted to test, though. If I use the Gramphos editor to create the Epic, the fact that it didn't get built properly might cause some flag in the game to not get set (which would have been set on the turn that it got produced in a real game). So I'm not sure if the game will allow me to have 2 leaders -- I'll try it.

Now I said I believe that the numbers behave properly, but that might be because I have not stumbled upon the conditions under which they don't. The fact that I haven't seen an abominable snowman doesn't prove that they don't exist.

But if you believe that the alleged random numbers are not "random" for practical purposes, then what good does it do to know what the odds are supposed to be? Aren't you saying that the game behaviour is unpredictable?

 

[Isak]

Originally posted by sumthinelse


If the random numbers behave properly, and I believe they do, then 1000 trials should give you a very credible answer to whether an event happens with a 1/12 probability (one "epic" type wonder gets applied to the odds) or 1/6 (2 "epics").

But still, I could just have gotten lucky - I would have to test several times with 1000 tries each time and then compare the results to make sure they were similar, in order to do so....and still I wouldn't really know, since computer randomness is programmed and only as good as the algorithm used to determine the random number. I'm not saying it would be a bad idea to test it this way - It's just not solid evidence IMHO

But if you believe that the alleged random numbers are not "random" for practical purposes, then what good does it do to know what the odds are supposed to be? Aren't you saying that the game behaviour is unpredictable? [/B]

I don't really care about the odds. I just want to know if there is any effect from adding a second Heroic Epic wonder at all.

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by Isak
But still, I could just have gotten lucky - I would have to test several times with 1000 tries each time and then compare the results to make sure they were similar, in order to do so....and still I wouldn't really know

This sounds like Xeno's Paradox: Achilles and a turtle will race but the turtle gets a head start of 9.99 meters. The winner will be the one to get to the 10 meter mark. Achilles runs 1000 times as fast as the turtle. After Achilles runs 5 meters, the turtle will be at 9.995 meters. After Achilles runs 7.5 meters the turtle will be at 9.9975, when Achilles runs .825 meters the turtle is still ahead at 9.99825... at 9.999999... meters the turtle is still loser to 10....

So you see, not only will Achilles never catch the turtle, the turtle will never win either.

I might believe that today all airplanes will have a 50% chance of crashing. You would say, look, in the first 500 flights there were no crashes. Then I would say, no, I need more evidence. And I would be right that if you have more trials you get a more certain result.

The whole of modern science is based on observation, and so it's always possible that we will do one more trial and find that our assumption was wrong. Suppose we find an apple that doesn't fall to earth?

It's just not solid evidence IMHO I don't really care about the odds. I just want to know if there is any effect from adding a second Heroic Epic wonder at all.

But the effect, if there were an effect, would be exactly that: a probability.

 

[Isak]

Originally posted by sumthinelse
The whole of modern science is based on observation, and so it's always possible that we will do one more trial and find that our assumption was wrong. Suppose we find an apple that doesn't fall to earth?

True, but in this case the guys who stuck the apples on the trees are around and we could just ask them whether they stuck the apples properly on, or whether the apples will fall under certain circumstances

And about Xeno's Paradox - that is my point exactly. There is no solid evidence in statistics, regardless of how much we calculate and for how long. I might figure out the right result through a test, but I also might get a false result - and I would never be able to tell the difference, since the calculation is based on the assumption that through testing X number of times i will eventually get the average chance of leaders appearing. But I could get unlucky and roll a 1000 "1"'s in a row, and then come to the conclusion that Leaders always appear, for example.

But the effect, if there were an effect, would be exactly that: a probability.

Again, true, but I have no need to know the exact probability, I only want to know if we have a few useless wonders in the DyP mod.

My question is really just how the probability for Leader Appearance is calculated. Is there an equation which would allow for several instances of the "Increase chance of leader appearance" flag, or would the equation just check if one instance of the flag was present and not give a hoot about the rest?

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by Mike B. FIRAXIS
Oh yeah, that's one little tidbit I forgot to mention. If a victorious unit fails to get promoted, it will always be promoted upon surviving any other battle in the same turn. This gives an obvious advantage to defenders as well as an incentive to use the same offensive units for additional battles whenever possible.

Mike, thanks for all the great help.

I have a favor to ask. I tried to email you via your user profile but no dice.

Can you tell me what the goody hut probabilities are for techs, units, gold, maps, barbs, deserted? I believe that the probabilities are affected by

• difficulty level
• exp. vs. non-exp. civ
• whether or not you own a settler (having a settler seems to make it impossible to get a settler from a hut)
• whether you have any cities (we seem to never get barbarians before the first city)
  

Thanks!

 

[Mike B.]

Originally posted by Isak
That's why I just thought it would be so much easier if we could just get word from some of the big boys, whether or not the Heroic Epic effect is a one-shot deal or whether it can be used to increase the chances several times in the same game. Anyone with access to the source code could look it up in a fly

A second Heroic Epic will not increase your odds. It just checks to see if you have the ability or not.

 

[Mike B.]

Originally posted by sumthinelse
Can you tell me what the goody hut probabilities are for techs, units, gold, maps, barbs, deserted?

The goody hut probabilities are a lot more complicated (probably more than they need to be). They are not strictly random as there are a lot of factors involved. The initial probabilities are based on difficulty level and whether or not the civ has the Expansionist trait. After that, though, it becomes more difficult to determine. Each particular goody hut result has several rules for whether or not it can appear from each particular goody hut. If one of the conditions is not met, a new result is chosen. Because of this, the probabilities are not something I can easily relate...

 

[Isak]

Originally posted by Mike B. FIRAXIS
A second Heroic Epic will not increase your odds. It just checks to see if you have the ability or not.

Thanks a lot Mike - not the answer I wanted to hear but that's not your fault.

Thanks for sticking around and helping us poor souls out

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by Isak

And about Xeno's Paradox - that is my point exactly.

Did you know that Zeno's paradox was refuted by the fact that you can traverse an infinitely divisible finite distance in a finite time?

And what is DyP?

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by Mike B. FIRAXIS


The goody hut probabilities are a lot more complicated (probably more than they need to be). They are not strictly random as there are a lot of factors involved. The initial probabilities are based on difficulty level and whether or not the civ has the Expansionist trait. After that, though, it becomes more difficult to determine. Each particular goody hut result has several rules for whether or not it can appear from each particular goody hut. If one of the conditions is not met, a new result is chosen. Because of this, the probabilities are not something I can easily relate...

Thanks yet again, Mike.

In general, it seems to be the case that the difficulty of getting "good" things, techs, gold, maps, units, decreases with higher difficulties, as you would expect. Also expansionist civs get more "good" results and never get barbs. For example, out of about 500 trials at deity level, I found that an expansionist civ was getting 26% techs while in a test of about 300 trials (not enough for accuracy but gives you an idea) a non-expansionist civ got only 6% techs.

The hardest thing to understand seems to be when a settler can appear and what the probability is, and under what conditions it can appear.

It sounds like difficult source code, and you are very kind to even try to look at it. Is there anything at all you can tell me about how any of the outcomes is determined? For example, my tests suggest that the only rule for a tech to appear (other than the already mentioned difficulty level and exp./non-exp. civ) is:

After the civ has entered the middle ages, techs no longer appear.

 

[RobO]

Originally posted by sumthinelse
And what is DyP?

DyP - Double your Pleasure - is the best Civ3 mod out there. No kidding.
Go check it out at this 44 page thread and at the DyP website.

DyP revitalised the game for me. I don't play the original any more - it's too boring.

 

[sumthinelse]

Originally posted by RobO


DyP - Double your Pleasure - is the best Civ3 mod out there. No kidding.
Go check it out at this 44 page thread and at the DyP website.

DyP revitalised the game for me. I don't play the original any more - it's too boring.

OK Thanks

 

[Mike B.]

Originally posted by sumthinelse


The hardest thing to understand seems to be when a settler can appear and what the probability is, and under what conditions it can appear.

It sounds like difficult source code, and you are very kind to even try to look at it. Is there anything at all you can tell me about how any of the outcomes is determined? For example, my tests suggest that the only rule for a tech to appear (other than the already mentioned difficulty level and exp./non-exp. civ) is:

After the civ has entered the middle ages, techs no longer appear.

It's not really that it's difficult; it's just that it was implemented by an intern . Here are the conditions:

Gold:
*The tile must not have any type of resource or luxury on it.

Maps:
--always available

Nothing:
--always available

Settler:
*Player must not have a settler (active or in production) or any unit with the Settle AI strategy.
*Number of player's cities must be <= (TotalCities / NumActivePlayers).

Mercenaries (skilled warrior):
*There must be a unit available to the Barbarians as well as the player and that unit must be able to be built (or have been built) by some player in the game.

Tech:
*Player must still be in Ancient Times.

Barbarians:
*Player must not have Expansionist trait.
*There must not be a city within a 1-tile radius.
*The player must have at least 1 city.
*The player must have at least 1 military unit.
*The unit popping the hut must not have the "All Terrain As Roads" ability.

 

[Lt. 'Killer' M.]

Mike: thanx, but I've seen hut opening by border expansion give barbs - before 1.21 maybe?

It actually way extremely sucky, since i had no prior save and the expansion was the first of my capital - which they sacked twice!

 

[Gastric ReFlux]

Originally posted by Lt. 'Killer' M.
Mike: thanx, but I've seen hut opening by border expansion give barbs - before 1.21 maybe?

It actually way extremely sucky, since i had no prior save and the expansion was the first of my capital - which they sacked twice!

And here's your answer--

*There must not be a city within a 1-tile radius.


With the border expansion, the city would be beyond a 1-tile radius of the hut being popped.

 

[Mike B.]

Originally posted by Lt. 'Killer' M.
Mike: thanx, but I've seen hut opening by border expansion give barbs - before 1.21 maybe?

It actually way extremely sucky, since i had no prior save and the expansion was the first of my capital - which they sacked twice!

Ooops, my mistake. It does not have to be with a unit. Border expansion can cause barbarians to come from the hut. I'll update the original post.

 

[Gastric ReFlux]

Originally posted by Mike B. FIRAXIS


Ooops, my mistake. It does not have to be with a unit. Border expansion can cause barbarians to come from the hut. I'll update the original post.

I must have missed something in the original post, but I thought the answer was already there when it said barbarians couldn't come out if there was a city within a 1-tile radius. But border expansion would place the city outside of any 1-tile radius of a goody hut, thus meaning that the chance of barbarians would be checked against the random number.

 

[Mike B.]

Originally posted by Gastric ReFlux


I must have missed something in the original post, but I thought the answer was already there when it said barbarians couldn't come out if there was a city within a 1-tile radius. But border expansion would place the city outside of any 1-tile radius of a goody hut, thus meaning that the chance of barbarians would be checked against the random number.

I initially stated that the hut must have been opened by a unit (and not border expansion), regardless of the distance to the nearest city. You are actually correct, though, because I was mistaken about this rule. Border expansion can cause barbarians to appear because the city will not be within 1 tile of the hut...

 

[Evincar]

Even if you found a city next to a goody hut Mike??
Yes, it's quite silly to do so but...

 

[Gastric ReFlux]

Originally posted by Evincar
Even if you found a city next to a goody hut Mike??
Yes, it's quite silly to do so but...

Then wouldn't the city be within a 1-tile radius of the goody hut?