Research - where do we go?

[zyxy]

Don't panic, we still have 9 turns on philosophy. But it might be good to start thinking about our research path. So:
- what shall we take as free tech?
- what shall we research after that, and at what speed?
- when to pop the goodie huts?
- what do we plan to do with the techs we get? (ok, that's not really about research anymore. Bad thread title - sorry).

My thoughts:

As free tech we can take Map Making. It is the most expensive tech available to us, and allows naval operations. Code of Law is an alternative - slightly cheaper (300 beakers instead of 360), but bringing us closer to republic.
After that I would research full speed to Wheel, CoL, Republic, in that order. The reason to do the Wheel first is that nobody else is going to do it, and we are going to need it to start building chariots. I don't think that can wait until after Republic. (I also don't feel very safe with an army of warriors). Ideally, we can trade for literature to boost research on col/republic.
Then go after Horse Back Riding, mass-upgrade chariots (built while researching republic) and be ready to steamroll our first opponent for a nice, stimulating, republican golden age.
Techs like Bronze Working, Iron Working, Warrior Code and Masonry can surely be traded for, if not with Greece, then with someone else - hopefully we'll meet someone else soon. At some point, Math, Currency and Literature can probably be traded for as well. The other AA techs are only really needed to leave the AA, methinks.

I don't know about popping the goodie huts, because I need some info first
- what tech advance makes it impossible to get techs from goody huts?
- do we need to be a backward civ to get techs?

 

[magnusmarcus]

yes lets get mapmaking so we can send our soldiers to the other continent....mu ha ha ha ha

 

[killercane]

We would need to pop the goody huts with a settler. We can get any of the AA techs and do not need to be backwards. If we get the option to pop them after acquiring the first tier techs, then we should certainly try to do that.

Wheel should be a 6-7 turn tech to pick up at 120 beakers, so in 15 turns we should know a lot of important things.

 

[Robi D]

My thoughts are
1- map making, its the most expensive and increases our exploration capacity
2- we should keep our reasearch up as high as possible, we have an oppertunity with mia to jump ahead of the other 2 teams, so why waste it
3- after we have made trades with mia
4- global domination has a nice ring to it

 

[admiral-bell]

love the plan, but it means no SoZ

 

[Civman2004]

I'd be tempted to go CoL to get closer to Republic. Do we really need Map-Making so early? It looks like we'll be able to make contact with all civs with our little curragh, and if we research MM then it becomes cheaper for the other teams and they can make contact with each other. We want to prevent that for as long as possible. The other teams have to go for MM, why not wait until it's cheap, or we can trade for it?

 

[zyxy]

I'd be tempted to go CoL to get closer to Republic. Do we really need Map-Making so early? It looks like we'll be able to make contact with all civs with our little curragh, and if we research MM then it becomes cheaper for the other teams and they can make contact with each other. We want to prevent that for as long as possible. The other teams have to go for MM, why not wait until it's cheap, or we can trade for it?

The main reason to pick Map Making would be that it's more expensive (by 60 gold). I think I am tending more and more towards CoL though, for the same arguments as you. Getting to republic earlier might also recoup the 60 gold pieces. Moreover, I bet we are the world's tech leader, and so we don't need the higher trade value of Map Making.

The only other reason to take Map Making would be to grab the furs on Greek Island. Hopefully our warrior going west will tell us in a few turns whether some furry animals live on our side of the water.

 

[killercane]

If we assume that there is a civ to the north of us and north of Greece (which is a very safe assumption if looking at it from a mapmaker's standpoint), we will be meeting them in the next twenty turns.

-We know that our competitor Greece does not have writing.
-We will know if they have any contacts by tomorrow.
-We can sign a technology agreement with Greece.

These things indicate to me that a republic slingshot is ours for the taking. By researching down to one turn, shutting off research, and getting Greece to do CoL (20 turns most likely for them), republic will be ours.

Balancing our urgent needs (expansion, military, and research) will take citizens and the gold they produce. I propose to turn off research with philo at one turn left, let greece do CoL, take republic, 4 turn research of the wheel, and build up massive gold while slowly doing HBR (greece>mapmaking), while building up troops and settlers. Turn up research on HBR when our unit costs begin to eat away at us or we decide we have enough to prosecute a decisive war.

We will have all the AA techs we need for war, the gold to run a war, the troops to crush our opponents, will be able to avoid any dogpile from the others, and be tech leaders to boot.

This is the safest plan out there. It is safe for defense (we will have gold and troops in case of a sneak invasion), it is great for offense (I figure at least 1500 gold by turn 90, equivalent to 10 upgraded swords and 30 upgraded MWs, an unstoppable army for anyone to our north), and if we meet the others and get uncomfortable with the risk of losing out on philo, we can grab mapmaking right away. By being tied in to Greece and having the free tech, we dont miss much on research.

If we were to lose philo (something I regard as a 5% or lower risk), we dont lose the game automatically. The other team would take maps, CoL, or math, making it cheaper for us to research anyhow. If the team is north of us, we are going to smoke them anyhow soon, and take away any tech advantage they have. If they are to the north of Greece, we can just play them off against Greece to our advantage.

The "free CoL" alternatives, assuming 4 turn anarchy and reasonable scientific figures:
1) Take CoL right away. 35 turn research on Republic, 4 turns for the Wheel, 4 turns for HBR. We are at turn 86-87, no gold, and very little army.

2) Take CoL, 5 turns for the wheel, single scientist on republic, 4 turns HBR, at turn 95, 1000 gold in the bank, a number of chariots.

3) Same, except max research for no gold and a number of chariots.

There are the "take MM for free" arguments as well if someone wants to post them. I dont think it gives us much besides the furs.

At least 33-50% more gold, safety from hostiles, a tech lead, troops, great flexibility... It makes sense to take the risk on the republic slingshot.

 

[zyxy]

This is a nice idea, but only if everything works the way you planned it. So, let me play the s advocate, and try to list my concerns.

1. We will have to give writing to Greece, probably in return for some of their techs. Why would they not research philosophy then? Of course that means breaking their word, but they could consider the advantage of getting the free tech worth the price. We would not know about this until it is too late. And, there would be nothing we could do to prevent it.

2. Why would they start on CoL and research as quickly as possible? Perhaps they will change their mind and do some other techs first, claiming that "something came up" or "we had another vote and it overturned the previous decision". If they are bold, they could even claim that they traded for the tech. It is also possible that they will not research full speed, knowing that we are waiting for them, and so are essentially in their power. Again, there is nothign we can do about stalling tactics from Greece.

3. A minor point is that we will have to tell Greece in quite a lot of detail about our plans. What we are researching, that we are aiming for the republic, etc.

Basically, we will be putting our fate in the hands of Greece, for 25 turns at least. To me, that is enough reason not to follow this course. But for the sake of argument let's assume that Greece is trustworthy and researches CoL as you want. Then

4. What's in it for them? Surely they will not consider it a good idea to just let us have the slingshot. They will probably ask to share the Republic. Which means that your plan makes us a republic much earlier then Celts or Persia, but at around the same time as Greece. Whereas taking CoL as free tech will get us republic earlier than everyone (but of course with a smaller gap). I think the most important thing is not how quick we can get to republic, but if we can do it quicker than the others. We surely can, and that would propel us ahead of the crowd. I consider Greece as the civ with highest long term potential. Scientific and Commercial will make them a research power house, over time. It's not really a good idea to help them get started.

5. How long will they take? Greece is researching slower than we. They have just done IW + WC (total value 270) in the time that we have done writing plus a good chunk of philosophy, for a total value of around 290 gold. They probably just started a new project, and will likely want to finish it first. So it's going to take them about 25-30 turns to get to CoL I think. It is not impossible that one of the other civs will get to philo before Greece gets CoL - I have no idea on the odds, it mainly depends on the decisions made by Persia and Celts.

6. As you said, it is likely that we'll meet Persia and/or Celts fairly soon. We may want to trade with them, and our biggest and quite possibly only trading chip is writing. But while Greece is still doing CoL, we cannot trade writing away, for fear that Persia or Celts will do Philo. Now suppose (not unlikely) that Greece also contacts these two. Who will reap the benefits of trading writing away? Surely Greece, because they know when it is safe to do so.

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Conclusion: you claim that this plan is our safest bet. I don't think so. It is probably the riskiest thing we can do. Sure, it may work, and that would give us great benefit. Or it may not work. And we'll have nothing. The safest bet is to take CoL as free tech, and we'll surely get to republic before anyone else does. Obviously the benefit of that is less. So is the risk.

 

[Robi D]

i have to agree zyxy, put our fate in mias hand for 20+ turns is very risky.

Now let me put on mia hat for a minute. if i was them, for me to agree to that plan killer i would then ask to get the republic for free, since you would have the 20 odd turns of no reseach to build up other things, but then i would also find it hard to yes to your plan in the first place, because what to stop you from getting republic, not give it to mia and take off in the distance, it would seem a large risk on mias behalf as well.

Ok back to our team, i believe the best option is to get philo right away and get the free tech, because remember, the greeks will get a free one with the new age, so to let that free tech go would be to hand them back the advantage. I also think after they get to the ma because of that free tech and because it puts them out of danger of the celts/persians uu's they wont feel as greater need to trade with us, as they will see it as there chance to get ahead of everyone and got for a late ma early ia win.

In conclusion, we should give away our aims in research to them, the co-op on tech reaseach should be kept simple, we got for one, you go for a different one, when were both finished, we traded them and go for the next 2, they don't have to know the reasons for why we are researching these techs and i'm sure they be pushing for techs they think are important for their aims to be researched. We should use philo to get a tech ahead of mia, because they will get a free one too. And lastly if we go for republic, they will want it too, and to try to make your deal opens up the possiblity for backstabbing, so i don't think it would work

 

[zyxy]

Some figures:

republic costs 860 beakers. Meaning we'll need to get to something like 25 beakers per turn (bpt) on average to research it well under 50 turns (we're currently at around 15 beakers I think). This should be possible I think as we will start to expand rapidly with the settler factory. We might want to entice Greece to do lit so that we can build libs at some point. With lots of river towns commerce should be coming in quite well.

Of course we will not get 25 bpt right off the bat, so initially it will look like there's no difference between min research and max research. Still, max research should pay off.

The Greek free tech is a problem, and Persia will get one too. We could try to hold on to republic until this time, and trade it for those free techs. We'll need to find our opponents soon to make that happen, as we'll have to play tech broker to stay in the race.

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On another note, it seems that Greece is holding the save. We know that they discovered WC between our turns 31 and 32. I don't know whether that means that they discovered it last turn or this turn (depends on when the beakers are added in the play cycle), but in both cases it could mean they still have to choose a new tech now. Their problem: there are no good choices. The only tech they can do that is a monopoly is the wheel, and they obviously have no interest in it.
An alternative explanation is that they have found someone else, and are trying a 2-fer.

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EDIT: one more thing. The turnchat thread where this meeting takes place is from the demogame (the SP one). Is that a safe place? Anyone can wander in there...

 

[killercane]

In response to the excellent points made by zyxy:

1 & 2: Both of these things would be outlined in a tech agreement, with forfeiture penalties if they decide to do a philo run. I believe any agreements submitted to the mods would have to be enforced or there's a penalty; we'll put the penalty in the agreement that the Greeks agreed to, and it would be hard for them not to get penalized in that case since they gave their consent to it in the first place. I.e. if they decide to screw us and do philo, we can agree that we get any free tech they do + MA tech, or some other such penalty. They would need to make a good faith effort for max research to philo, and that could be easily outlined and checked by the mods.

3. Not a big deal, I think we should be their partners and it gives us info on their plans as well.

4. I think we would have to give them Republic, and I think that is an advantage for us research wise and military wise. No matter how well we micromanage, no matter what we do research wise, if we get dogpiled by the other 3 (a distinct possibility considering we are research leaders, have great traits, have a great UU, and cant offer any free techs at the age change), we're done for. Making friends means less enemies.

5. Greece would have to give us info on how soon they would get CoL. Chief among this info is their beaker rate and if they have their settler factory running in order to come to a good estimate.

6. Giving the others writing will only bring them that much closer to us. If Greece hasnt met anyone and traded away alphabet, that puts the other two in that much bigger of a tech hole. Since Persia and the Celts probably have not formed an alliance as of yet, they might wait to do that until they realize that Greece and ourselves are allied. It will most likely be too late for them at that point to play catchup.

Sure there is risk, but the risk we will be attacked if we arent prepared I think is greater. If we work with Greece and get a jump start on taking over our opponents, the Greeks will be hard pressed to keep up with our larger empire in research. How are they going to go about taking people over? Slow moving sword-hoplite stacks? The first time they can make a big push is at Chivalry, and I dont think they can take Persia or the Celts with just knights. Hopefully we can get to and decimate an opponent in a war or two and have our borders secured.

I think we can minimize the chances the Greeks screw us by drafting a solid partnership agreement between us.

 

[zyxy]

Good to see some discussion evolving! This is very important, as it will drastically shape our future (on that killercane and I at least agree ). Getting republic this way would sure be a big prize, saving more than 500 gold in research cost alone. My main concern remains 1 & 2. Fortunately we don't have to decide yet - but very soon.

On 1&2: the only thing I can find in the game rules is 4.1 and 4.2: treaties can be submitted to the game staff, and sent to third parties if violated - so it would presumably ruin the reputation of the violator. There is no mention of penalty. Of course the treaty could mention such penalties, but if they are not enforceable, then that's a bit weak. So the question is: do we consider this sufficient security? As a side note, the wording of such a treaty obviously has to be very precise, so it can only be interpreted in one way.

On 4: perhaps we could propose that they'll get republic in exchange for their free MA tech. If they consider this unfair, we can point out to them that we obviously now have a lock on philo (as nobody else has writing), and could just go it alone. We are doing them a favor by getting them to republic, i.e., their advantage is larger than ours. (We get republic instead of a cheaper tech, they get republic instead of nothing).

On 5: it's probably slightly lower than ours. By all means, try to get some figure from them. If needed, we can try to analyze their position and figure out their research speed, to compare with what they say.

On 6: Well, the point is that we don't know what Greece has done. They may have built a curragh as well, and found someone. We could perhaps propose to trade writing away under embargo - for example, they are not allowed to trade it away until they get CoL.

So what to do: I think little harm is done if this idea is mentioned to them, as a "suggestion floating around on our forum" or something. There is of course no need to tell them we are doing philo already. If they like the idea but scoff at giving their free tech for republic, then saying that "the skeptics on our side could perhaps be won over if we get their MA tech for republic" won't hurt either . Moral: use thumbscrews, but without them realizing it .

Good luck in the talks! It will be too late for me to attend (3 AM I think), but I am looking forward to the logs.

 

[killercane]

Agreed on all points. I will probably throw this out there then to see the reaction and what they want to give in return.

I think we could ask the overseers about putting a penalty in the agreement and whether it would be enforced or not.