SGOTM 03 - Gypsy Kings

[Conquistador 63]

Well done Joe!

My 2¢:
1.Diplo front: I still hope we can get Monte & Caesar to vote for us in the future. The wise civic move is only related to the "favorite civic" shown in the info screen of the diplo advisor (or in the leader entry in the civilopedia). Current civics play no role. For Monte is PS. For Caesar is Representation. Those can't be adopted now, we need US for cashbuying units. Maybe in a last minute move.
Why isn't Monte with us already? Could be because we & Toku are in same threshold (pleased) regardless of numbers. If we can get him friendly...The prolonged war with Fred might help. But then again HC is pleased (even with -1!) with Toku and voted for us. Interesting to notice that Toku is friendly to Monte (also to Alex). Can that play a role in the AI votes? However, there is nothing we can do to poison the Toku/Monte relations at the moment. Maybe sweeten our own relations with gifts.
About Caesar, there is a nice window of opportunity. He doesn't like Toku (stopped trading). He is also willing to declare on Mansa (for Biology I guess). From then on, we should join him on his war. If we can drag HC & Monte to it, the better. No diplo penalties. If we declared first, possibly a -1 to Caesar. But he will already be at war with MM.
The other war options are too risky diplo wise IMO. Especially the one against HC, (bring a war ally against us penalty). The only downside to war vs MM is logistics, we have few troops available there. I think we should set eiffel aside for a while and build or rushbuy artillery each other turn in the IW city.

2. City management: I'm in a hurry to leave now, so a more detailed analysis will have to wait until later, but I've been thinking of turning city automation on. Setting emphasize food/growth on all of them, except the couple of unit-producing city (the one with HE and the other with IW, for hammers), Delhi (gold), Moscow (science) and StPete (GPpoints). I think the computer is better than me to optimizing this stuff. Does anyone want to try and check the effects on turns to pop growth? It is a perfectly reversible move, so no harm involved.

@ dV: overall wise notes on newly conquered cities build orders.
p.s.1 move Mao research to flight, it reduces time from 9 to 8 turns, IIRC. He's not in anarchy, he is just sending most of his commerce to us.
p.s.2 how can we set JC to be voting rival? His pop is way behind Toku, see last vote results.

 

[da_Vinci]

1.Diplo front: I still hope we can get Monte & Caesar to vote for us in the future. The wise civic move is only related to the "favorite civic" shown in the info screen of the diplo advisor (or in the leader entry in the civilopedia). Current civics play no role. For Monte is PS. For Caesar is Representation. Those can't be adopted now, we need US for cashbuying units. Maybe in a last minute move.

I agree with going for Monte's vote as I think we are close. Caesar is only P+7 with us, and still P+4 with Toku, so I think he may be a lost cause. Don't know how we would pump him into double digit+ with us. If we give up on Caesar, then war with Wash has no diplo negatives. Civic changes can be last minute, unless some other decision were to hinge on knowing whether the civics move works or not.

I thought I had read somewhere that wise civics had to do with matcing their current civics (maybe in addition to using favorite?), but I may be remembering wrong.

Why isn't Monte with us already? Could be because we & Toku are in same threshold (pleased) regardless of numbers. If we can get him friendly...The prolonged war with Fred might help.

Bigger question is why he votes for Toku! I could understand abstention, but not the Toku vote.

About Caesar, there is a nice window of opportunity. He doesn't like Toku (stopped trading). He is also willing to declare on Mansa (for Biology I guess). From then on, we should join him on his war. If we can drag HC & Monte to it, the better. No diplo penalties. If we declared first, possibly a -1 to Caesar. But he will already be at war with MM.

I am confused, as I see Caesar P+4 with Toku and Toku P+5 with Caesar. See additional comments on this above.

I think I misread the lines earlier ... Musa is not in PA with Sal, it is Cyrus and Caesar. So war with Musa is only a diplo neg with Wash, Fred, Cyrus and Casear ... and only the Caesar issue matters (if even that).

So Caesar declares on Musa (our bribe), we join him? Will that get us enough diplo+ given that Caesar is P+4 with Toku? Maybe not. But it would break the DP between Sal and Caesar. Is that good, or bad (if they make a PA, will Sal influence Caesar to vote for us)?

The other war options are too risky diplo wise IMO. Especially the one against HC, (bring a war ally against us penalty). The only downside to war vs MM is logistics, we have few troops available there. I think we should set eiffel aside for a while and build or rushbuy artillery each other turn in the IW city.

How is the war with Wash risky, if we assume that Caesar is still too pleased with Toku to be a voting ally? That seems to be the only negative to war on Wash, and the Spanish troops could sail there pretty quickly.

I was not suggesting that we go to war with Capac, only that we get Toku to do it. As long as Capac does not know that we talked Toku into it, it should guarantee that Capac votes with us for rest of the game, I would think. The ideal way to poison Toku's relations with potential voting rivals is to get him to declare war on them. The only risk is that Capac will ask us to join him against Toku, and there are diplo negatives to that whichever way we go. Maybe we can hold this move in reserve?

p.s.2 how can we set JC to be voting rival? His pop is way behind Toku, see last vote results.

Sometimes I throw out very raw and unformed ideas ... brainstorming. This was one of them. Only makes sense if we were pretty sure that Toku would vote for us if someone else were the rival. And we would have to gift cities to Caesar to do it, so on close look I agree it makes no sense.

In summary, three paths:

1) War with Washington, on the assumption that Caesar is too hard to win over.

2) Bribe Caesar to war with Musa, then join him against Musa

3) Bribe Toku to declare on Capac. Likely we get asked to join Capac, with some diplo hit as a result.

We could hold 3) in reserve and avoid the diplo hits.

We could also do 1) and 2) together ... go after Wash with the troops in Spain, buy troops in REgypt to go get Musa after Caesar declares (bribed by us). Mao could help vs Musa. Or if we have given up on Caesar, just declare on Musa ourselves. Musa and Wash, plus getting Monte's votes (police state), plus growth in Spain = diplo win (I think, assuming we keep Sal and Capac)

This looks like a good combined war and diplo plan. If it does not work, then we have to see what diplo or war tricks to try next.

What does everyone think about 1), 2) and 3) (or combinations thereof)?

dV

 

[Conquistador 63]

I am confused, as I see Caesar P+4 with Toku and Toku P+5 with Caesar. See additional comments on this above.
...
So Caesar declares on Musa (our bribe), we join him? Will that get us enough diplo+ given that Caesar is P+4 with Toku? Maybe not. But it would break the DP between Sal and Caesar. Is that good, or bad (if they make a PA, will Sal influence Caesar to vote for us)?

You're right, I messed JC +4 with HC -1 to Toku. Even then, a shared war might add up to +4, I believe JC value war matters a lot. Then +11 might be enough for the vote. Wild guesses.

How is the war with Wash risky, if we assume that Caesar is still too pleased with Toku to be a voting ally? That seems to be the only negative to war on Wash, and the Spanish troops could sail there pretty quickly.

I don't assume that. But I did fail to check the Washington x Caesar relationship. They're indeed pleased to each other. But guess what? I investigated further and noticed that Caesar will declare war on both MM & Washington for the small price of Biology+Electricity! I would pay for that!

I was not suggesting that we go to war with Capac, only that we get Toku to do it. As long as Capac does not know that we talked Toku into it, it should guarantee that Capac votes with us for rest of the game, I would think. The ideal way to poison Toku's relations with potential voting rivals is to get him to declare war on them. The only risk is that Capac will ask us to join him against Toku, and there are diplo negatives to that whichever way we go. Maybe we can hold this move in reserve?

This could work, but in reality a leader does know when we bribe someone else into war with them ("You brought a war ally against us"). In fact they also know about the stop trading affair. Check HC or JC and see -1 for "you negotiated a trade embargo against us". Another penalty should make us lose HC's vote.

In summary, three paths:

1) War with Washington, on the assumption that Caesar is too hard to win over.

2) Bribe Caesar to war with Musa, then join him against Musa

3) Bribe Toku to declare on Capac. Likely we get asked to join Capac, with some diplo hit as a result.

We could hold 3) in reserve and avoid the diplo hits.

We could also do 1) and 2) together ... go after Wash with the troops in Spain, buy troops in REgypt to go get Musa after Caesar declares (bribed by us). Mao could help vs Musa. Or if we have given up on Caesar, just declare on Musa ourselves. Musa and Wash, plus getting Monte's votes (police state), plus growth in Spain = diplo win (I think, assuming we keep Sal and Capac)

This looks like a good combined war and diplo plan. If it does not work, then we have to see what diplo or war tricks to try next.

What does everyone think about 1), 2) and 3) (or combinations thereof)?

dV

My proposal is then a recombination of (1) and (2). Bribe Caesar to war on Wash & MM. Join him soon thereafter, better yet if by his request. Invite HC & Monte to the fun whenever possible. These actions, with aggressive troop building and better citizen/city management might win us the game in a short time.

 

[da_Vinci]

in reality a leader does know when we bribe someone else into war with them ("You brought a war ally against us"). In fact they also know about the stop trading affair. Check HC or JC and see -1 for "you negotiated a trade embargo against us". Another penalty should make us lose HC's vote.

Interesting, and I did not know that before now. I have never been informed when one AI bribes another to mistreat me (unless it has never happened), so is that one more thing that the AI has over us, spying on our diplomacy?

I believe JC value war matters a lot. Then +11 might be enough for the vote. Wild guesses.

OK, I am willing to keep JC in play diplomatically.

But guess what? I investigated further and noticed that Caesar will declare war on both MM & Washington for the small price of Biology+Electricity! I would pay for that!

I second that idea! We get the wars with Washington and MM that I suggested, while getting buddy points with JC. PERFECT!

My proposal is then a recombination of (1) and (2). Bribe Caesar to war on Wash & MM. Join him soon thereafter, better yet if by his request. Invite HC & Monte to the fun whenever possible. These actions, with aggressive troop building and better citizen/city management might win us the game in a short time.

YES, YES! How long would we wait for JC to invite us to join? I would say if he has not asked by the time we have the troops in place, just jump in. Any problem if JC invites Toku to assist before he asks us? Maybe we just jump right in?

If Musa or Wash asks us to join on their side, we get no negatives with anyone we care about by saying no, right? If we can absorb Wash and MM, keep Sal and Capac, and swing Monte with Fred war and police state, and max our own pop growth, I think we have our 60% !

dV

 

[da_Vinci]

In cities that are not strong producers, we could still make Cossacks. Less costly, still effective after collateral damage to enemy, and good to garrison recent conquests while the SOD moves on. Artillery in the cities making lots of hammers.

Can upgrade galleons to transports. Until AI gets destroyers, transports would be the strongest ship on the sea! Is is worth paying for some upgrades?

At 0 science, we make 1109 gpt. Getting troops to Washington will be faster with transports. Buying pop growth buildings in Spain could really accelerate its growth. Buying troops in REgypt could speed the conquest of Musa.

So ... how about delaying flight for 2-3 turns of 0 sci to get mega cash and go on a shopping spree? Might as well put that Kremlin to use!

If not that, 90% sci gets us 69 gpt, so we can spend more slowly.

Just some thoughts ...

dV

 

[Conquistador 63]

Short post: I agree with all of da Vinci's recommendations above!

 

[Joemama]

Wow, there is a ton of information to soak in above. Good discussions guys, I think we have a plan.

I have seen an attempt or two to figure out why one civ voted one way and another voted another way. I believe voting behavior is programed into AI personalities. Since MM is usually a tech whore and Toku is usually never open to trade, I see no reason why cetrian civs are more selective with their votes than others.

On the tech front, once we get the tech for tanks (combustion I think), we should have enough military knowledge to conquer our 60%. From there we could set our research at 0% and rush buy units. 2 bombers and 3 tanks per turn appearing in newly captured cities could lead to a very quick conquest. Anyone think this is worth attempting?

 

[da_Vinci]

I have seen an attempt or two to figure out why one civ voted one way and another voted another way. I believe voting behavior is programed into AI personalities. Since MM is usually a tech whore and Toku is usually never open to trade, I see no reason why cetrian civs are more selective with their votes than others.

Could well be that each leader has different criteria for deciding how to vote ... and this "aggressive AI" setting may raise the thresholds for us to get votes (+11 in one reference, but +14 seems to be the rule for us now).

On the tech front, once we get the tech for tanks (combustion I think), we should have enough military knowledge to conquer our 60%. From there we could set our research at 0% and rush buy units. 2 bombers and 3 tanks per turn appearing in newly captured cities could lead to a very quick conquest. Anyone think this is worth attempting?

I think that a tank/artillery/destroyer conquest of the full 60% is the fallback if we can't get a combined conquest+diplo vote of 60%, and is in my mind's eye as a possible future. Given the coastal location of most cities, destroyers could do most of the bombardment, so might not even need bombers.

I figured flight before indust (needed for tanks) so that we can have the airports built by the time we start building the tanks. 8 turns to each with Mao helping (plus whatever turns we go 0 sci for money right now, perhaps 2 turns of that). Already have combustion.

If we can take Wash and MM quickly (adds 78 of the 145 votes we need), that should put us over 40% easily, and if we keep Sal and Capac and can sway Monte (96 votes), we are done. Could win even before the tanks get on the field. But if the diplomatic house of cards crumbles, then roll the tanks and to hell with diplomacy.

So, just to be sure plan is clear ... we bribe JC to declare on MM and Wash both in the current turn (if that is allowed ... all in one step?).

We wait a few (how many?) turns to see if JC invites us to join. But if he has not by the time we are ready to attack, we just declare, fight two wars at once. Well three, as we are keeping the Fred war ongoing for points with Capac and Monte.

If WW gets to be trouble, do we switch to Police State? Or use the culture slider (not something I have used much, so any advice on that)?

Go 0 sci for two turns and buy troops in REgypt, upgrade to transports in Spain, perhaps buy some defenders in Spain so art can sail to kill Wash. Buy growth buildings in Spain. Get Mao onto flight to knock off one turn.

Get Mao to attack MM along with us. Might be a reason to declare on him rather soon after JC, so Mao can get his armada moving.

As we absorb Wash and MM, we watch the votes closely, and once those two wars are over, make a civics play for JC and/or Monte, to see if we can get the win!

Everyone in agreement on this course?

dV

 

[Conquistador 63]

I agree.

 

[Scout214]

Haven't been able to read the posts for a couple of days. Will get the download, proceed this evening with dV on the phone, since he's more familiar with our current situation. Should be ready to pass on later tonight.

 

[Ronnie1]

I agree!

 

[Scout214]

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm3/Gypsy_Kings_SG003_AD1766_01.Civ4SavedGame

Played a couple of extra turns to see the election result because we were close.

WE WON in 1766!!!!!!!!!!

Turn 386 Did all the stuff we planned in the thread, with dV's assistance on the phone. Got Caesar to declare war on Musa & Washington. He subsequently got Alex to declare on Musa as well. This helped us get their votes eventually, owing to the shared war.

Turn 389 Declared war on Musa, grabbed one city quickly.

Turn 393 Declared war on Wash, grabbed Atlanta quickly.

Changed cities to devote people to food prod to speed up pop growth. Did so because on Turn 394 we were 32 votes from winning.

See screen saves...

 

[Scout214]

Additional screens at the end of the game

Many congratulations to all! Everyone did a great job! I learned a lot from everyone else. Thanks!

 

[Scout214]

One more attached screen which shows that we have won in 1766.

 

[da_Vinci]

Cunning, guile, and diplomatic slight of hand! Victory is ours!!!



Kudos all around, we are the leader in the clubhouse (as they say in golf, or at least I hope we are!).

Does this mean that we can go lurking in the other team threads now?

Great fun playing with everyone, and looking forward to SGOTM 4 with you guys (if they don't break us up for being too good )

da_Vinci

 

[da_Vinci]

Agent Tamborine takes a ... brief moment ... from her vodka party ... to suggest that the Gypsy Kings maintain a brisk posting rate as part of a disinformation campaign to prevent the early discovery of our victory date!

Disinformation rules!

dV reporting for AT

 

[Joemama]

Great job everyone! Now we need to sit back and watch everyone's progress graph go cruising by.

 

[da_Vinci]

Great job everyone! Now we need to sit back and watch everyone's progress graph go cruising by.

Those footballguys look like they have not posted for a while. You don't suppose ... can't be! (Can it ... ? )

In a PM with AlanH earlier, he said that after victory we could lurk in other teams threads, but suggested that such activity would tip them off that we won. He also felt that posting in another team's thread before they are done would be spoilerish (and I now think perhaps bad sportsmanship even if the content of the post is innocent). I have asked for a clarification as to whether just reading in their threads is covert or is detectable by them. You know how Agent Tamborine feels about leaks!

Answer: there are tools that allow us to see what members on-line are viewing: so in theory if we lurk in another teams thread, they might see that we are, and know we are done. Either the who is online function in the Quick links, or clicking on a name in the list of current viewers at the top of the page.

dV

Addendum: Our first UN vote on the victory question was 1628, turn 346. We won in 1766, turn 398. Only 52 turns required to re-shape our world and win a "side door" diplo (a little muscle, a little finesse). Much faster than space would have been, right!

If we believe that we got to MM about as fast as anyone can, got a PA about as fast as anyone can, had a better religious world than most are likely to have, and that 50 turns from the first vote is not bad to line up the votes, then you have to like our chances in the competition

Of course, what are those guys who are still in BC doing ... ?

dV

 

[Ronnie1]

Great Job Everyone!

In a PM with AlanH earlier, he said that after victory we could lurk in other teams threads, but suggested that such activity would tip them off that we won. He also felt that posting in another team's thread before they are done would be spoilerish (and I now think perhaps bad sportsmanship even if the content of the post is innocent). I have asked for a clarification as to whether just reading in their threads is covert or is detectable by them. You know how Agent Tamborine feels about leaks!

I think one the easiest ways to see how anyone else is doing, if it is allowed of course, download their latest save and have a look.

I can hardly wait to open our last.

 

[Ronnie1]

I can't find a link to the final save. Did someone hide it from me??