SGOTM 08 - XTeam

[leif erikson]

I'd like to focus the discussion on KC's point about X-Ville. Is it better to build Wat and observatory there or units? Wat doesn't do much good if X-ville doesn't have the surplus food to hire preists (and it wont if Marbleville is using the fish). The observatory would bring in about 20 beakers per turn after it's built and maybe an average of 25 over the rest of the game. On the other hand, building units in X-ville soon will help us take Joao's cities faster.

I do not think Wat is something we need to build right away, it is not a wonder that helps us in an immediate way, especially if we can't hire the Priests.

The Observatory is a little more difficult to assess. It will require 4-turns to complete (if my calcs are correct?) We have Divine Right, Nationalism, Gunpowder and Military Tradition to self-research. Liberalism could be next and how fast we need to research that depends upon where the other civs are in thier research? At our current research rate, it looks to be about 20 more turns of research, plus a turn or two for civic changes and no research turns to get Gold for upgrades of a Galley or two. Will the observatory pay for itself in research benefit over that time? How long can it be delayed and still be of use? If the delay makes it less attractive, then units exclusively?

After Colossus, there will be a 35 hammer overflow and units can be built at 36 Hammers per turn. With the overflow, we should be able to build two maces in three turns. After that, it is a Mace every two turns.

Horseville will produce two maces every seven turns but has the capacity with Worker turns to bump that up to a Mace every three turns.

Not sure how many Cats we'll need, 4 or 5?
Santarem, Braga, Guimaraes and Lagos are all on hills.

In answer to your question, it seems that building units in X-ville is preferable to wonders atm.

 

[Cactus Pete]

How fast will the hammers in Wat deteriorate?

Presuming we are siginficantly further ahead in our research needs than our production potential, units merit a higher priority, since captured cities are our chosen means of increasing production; moreover, we need to build them quickly, since they have a ways to go to get to the front.

Against hill cities, especially with culture, we will lose units without cats to bombard and/or sacrifice. Perhaps one cat for every three other units and they should get to the front no later than the other units.

 

[rrau]

This is BtS. Cats have been nerfed. I tend to like more cats in this expansion. Maybe cats out of Xville?

 

[leif erikson]

I looked in the Civilopedia and what you did was probably to attack a city with walls and castle. These buildings will decrease the effect of cats/trebs by 50%+25%=75%. This means that each cat bombards only 0.25*8=2% of the defense and each treb 0.25*16=4%. So per turn you should be able to reduce by 8*2+6*4=40%. In Vanilla and Warlords the percentages were relative to the maximum i.e. 3 turns should be enough. If the percentages are absolute it seems that 4 turns would do. Are you sure it was 5 turns?

Anyway this does indicate that we need more bombardment units in our stacks.

This is BtS. Cats have been nerfed. I tend to like more cats in this expansion. Maybe cats out of Xville?

In the quote by Fred above (from post number 44, btw), my experience was a bit later in the game when Engineering and Castles are present. Cats are nerfed and we should probably have a few more. Their primary role would be to reduce the cultural defense so the Maces and Ballista's are more effective. Hill cities, as CP points out, can also be tough, as KC found out at Jute...

Should Joao get Feudalism, that is a different story and more Cats will certainly be needed.

 

[ShannonCT]

So Pigville, Ulundi, and Xville can all build cats. Horseville can build maces for the next turnset. Ivoryville is all about the ballistas. When X-ville can no longer get cats to Portugal in a timely manner, it can switch over to an observatory or stables.

As the war with Joao rages, Horseville can continue to send the needed units, and other cities can begin accumulating units for an overseas adventure.

 

[leif erikson]

So Pigville, Ulundi, and Xville can all build cats. Horseville can build maces for the next turnset. Ivoryville is all about the ballistas. When X-ville can no longer get cats to Portugal in a timely manner, it can switch over to an observatory or stables.

Interesting. I was thinking X-ville Maces, Ivoryville Ballista's and Ulundi, Horseville and Pigville for Cats? Not sure we'll have enough Maces if only Horseville is producing them? Of course, I'm unsure how many Maces we want, or need?

As the war with Joao rages, Horseville can continue to send the needed units, and other cities can begin accumulating units for an overseas adventure.

Good idea.

 

[ShannonCT]

Interesting. I was thinking X-ville Maces, Ivoryville Ballista's and Ulundi, Horseville and Pigville for Cats? Not sure we'll have enough Maces if only Horseville is producing them? Of course, I'm unsure how many Maces we want, or need?

Either way is fine, whatever will give us a good mix of units in Portugal. I'd like to get the war against Portugal started ASAP, so I leave it to rrau to get us a well-suited army headed toward Portugal after Jute is taken.

I realize we haven't used any of the EPs accumulated against Joao. Why not use a spy to incite revolt in Braga when we're ready to attack there so we don't have to waste time bombarding? Ulundi can build a spy in 5 turns WITHOUT working any mines if we chop the forest to the NW (we already have a worker there). We'll get a big discount in Braga because of the presence of Confucianism.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Hi again! I tried to rerun my E(t)/t simulation with beakers per turn numbers closer to the actual game. I have assumed that average beaker output is tripled in T220 compared to now (including bulbing and Liberalism slingshot that may be possible).

DR/MilTrad beeline:

Spoiler :

Aesthetics 1.11 175 39
Agriculture 1.11 175 39
Alphabet 1.11 175 39
Animal Husbandry 1.11 175 39
Archery 1.11 175 39
Astronomy 1.11 175 39
Bronze Working 1.11 175 39
Calendar 1.11 175 39
Civil Service 1.11 175 39
Code of Laws 1.11 175 39
Compass 1.11 175 39
Construction 1.11 175 39
Currency 1.11 175 39
Divine Right 1.11 175 39
Drama 1.11 175 39
Education 1.11 175 39
Engineering 1.11 175 39
Feudalism 1.11 175 39
Fishing 1.11 175 39
Guilds 1.11 175 39
Gunpowder 1.11 175 39
Horseback Riding 1.11 175 39
Hunting 1.11 175 39
Iron Working 1.11 175 39
Literature 1.11 175 39
Machinery 1.11 175 39
Masonry 1.11 175 39
Mathematics 1.11 175 39
Meditation 1.11 175 39
Metal Casting 1.11 175 39
Military Tradition 1.11 175 39
Mining 1.11 175 39
Monarchy 1.11 175 39
Monotheism 1.11 175 39
Music 1.11 175 39
Mysticism 1.11 175 39
Nationalism 1.11 175 39
Optics 1.11 175 39
Paper 1.11 175 39
Philosophy 1.11 175 39
Polytheism 1.11 175 39
Pottery 1.11 175 39
Priesthood 1.11 175 39
Sailing 1.11 175 39
The Wheel 1.11 175 39
Theology 1.11 175 39
Writing 1.11 175 39
Banking 1.11 176 39
Liberalism 1.10 178 39
Printing Press 1.10 178 39
Chemistry 1.09 179 39
Constitution 1.09 179 39
Economics 1.09 179 39
Steel 1.08 185 40
Corporation 1.07 187 40
Military Science 1.07 183 39
Replaceable Parts 1.06 184 39
Democracy 1.06 189 40
Mass Media 1.05 219 46
Scientific Method 1.04 187 39
Medicine 1.03 203 42
Rifling 1.03 189 39
Biology 1.03 195 40
Communism 1.02 196 40
Radio 1.01 213 43
Steam Power 1.01 194 39
Physics 1.00 195 39
Railroad 0.99 207 41
Combustion 0.99 213 42
Electricity 0.99 203 40
Facism 0.98 215 42
Refrigeration 0.97 216 42
Assembly Line 0.97 212 41
Fission 0.94 213 40
Artillery 0.93 215 40
Superconductors 0.93 226 42
Satellites 0.92 246 46
Rocketry 0.92 223 41
Flight 0.91 230 42
Genetics 0.91 242 44
Ecology 0.90 227 41
Computers 0.90 277 50
Plastics 0.90 261 47
Industrialism 0.89 237 42
Robotics 0.88 286 51
Advanced flight 0.87 274 48
Composites 0.86 298 52
Laser 0.86 298 52
Fiber Optics 0.82 313 52
Stealth 0.81 318 52
Fusion 0.79 327 52
Future Tech 0.78 354 56

MM/Corporation beeline:

Spoiler :

Medicine 1.05 239 50
Democracy 1.03 232 48
Steel 1.03 232 48
Aesthetics 1.03 228 47
Agriculture 1.03 228 47
Alphabet 1.03 228 47
Animal Husbandry 1.03 228 47
Archery 1.03 228 47
Astronomy 1.03 228 47
Banking 1.03 228 47
Bronze Working 1.03 228 47
Calendar 1.03 228 47
Chemistry 1.03 228 47
Civil Service 1.03 228 47
Code of Laws 1.03 228 47
Compass 1.03 228 47
Constitution 1.03 228 47
Construction 1.03 228 47
Corporation 1.03 228 47
Currency 1.03 228 47
Divine Right 1.03 228 47
Drama 1.03 228 47
Economics 1.03 228 47
Education 1.03 228 47
Electricity 1.03 228 47
Engineering 1.03 228 47
Feudalism 1.03 228 47
Fishing 1.03 228 47
Guilds 1.03 228 47
Gunpowder 1.03 228 47
Horseback Riding 1.03 228 47
Hunting 1.03 228 47
Iron Working 1.03 228 47
Literature 1.03 228 47
Machinery 1.03 228 47
Masonry 1.03 228 47
Mass Media 1.03 228 47
Mathematics 1.03 228 47
Meditation 1.03 228 47
Metal Casting 1.03 228 47
Military Tradition 1.03 228 47
Mining 1.03 228 47
Monarchy 1.03 228 47
Monotheism 1.03 228 47
Music 1.03 228 47
Mysticism 1.03 228 47
Nationalism 1.03 228 47
Optics 1.03 228 47
Paper 1.03 228 47
Philosophy 1.03 228 47
Physics 1.03 228 47
Polytheism 1.03 228 47
Pottery 1.03 228 47
Priesthood 1.03 228 47
Printing Press 1.03 228 47
Radio 1.03 228 47
Sailing 1.03 228 47
Scientific Method 1.03 228 47
The Wheel 1.03 228 47
Theology 1.03 228 47
Writing 1.03 228 47
Biology 1.03 233 48
Refrigeration 1.03 238 49
Communism 1.03 234 48
Liberalism 1.02 230 47
Military Science 1.02 230 47
Replaceable Parts 1.02 230 47
Rifling 1.00 234 47
Combustion 1.00 250 50
Facism 1.00 245 49
Fission 1.00 235 47
Railroad 1.00 245 49
Steam Power 1.00 235 47
Superconductors 0.99 247 49
Assembly Line 0.99 242 48
Artillery 0.99 243 48
Rocketry 0.98 250 49
Flight 0.98 256 50
Genetics 0.97 262 51
Plastics 0.97 273 53
Ecology 0.97 248 48
Satellites 0.96 258 50
Industrialism 0.96 251 48
Computers 0.94 281 53
Robotics 0.92 291 54
Advanced flight 0.91 284 52
Composites 0.90 302 55
Laser 0.90 302 55
Fiber Optics 0.86 317 55
Stealth 0.85 322 55
Fusion 0.82 331 55
Future Tech 0.82 357 59

The results should be interpreted like this: The prediction is that the research to DR, MilTrad and Gunpowder can be finished in T175 with 39 wonders enabled thus yielding an E(t)/t of 1.11. All the techs listed with 1.11 are included in the beelines. I think leif calculated that we need around 5000 hammers to close the build gap (assuming that the AI doesn't build any Wonders). Since we are making around 100hpt we would need 50 turns of building Wonders to achieve this. We only have 30 turns + turns needed to finish wonders after last tech is discovered. And some hammers must be used to build units. Thus it seems that we are short of hammers if we go for a fast victory around T185 as you have already concluded.
Another option is to beeline for MM/Corporation after DR/MilTrad. E(t)/t will go down to 1.03 with an expected finish of MM in T228 with 47 Wonders enabled. Say we need 15 turns to finish the last wonders the end date is now pushed to T243. This means 100 turns of production or 10000 hammers if production is not increased. leif says we need around 10000 hammers. Looks to be short again, but it's likely that the addition of Portuguese cities and other measures like building workshops will give us the hammers we miss for units as well. An end date of T243 with all 47 Wonders in hand corresponds to a W(t)/t=0.967. Now we can calculate how many Wonders we need at T175 to beat this and the result is 34 (out of 39) and for a T185 victory we need 36. From the numbers it looks as if beelining Medicine after MM will increase E(t)/t to 1.05. Unfortunately the Wonder enabled here is the Red Cross which is very hammer heavy as it also requires 6 hospitals. More interesting is the MM->Biology ->Refrigeration end path because we get to the end at T238 with 49 wonders enabled and E(t)/t is unchanged at 1.03. The good thing is that we have extra 10 turns after MM to build the expensive Wonders and the two Wonders enabled by Biology (Nat. Park, 300 hammers) and Cereal Mills (Merchant) are cheap so it should be possible to close the build gap almost immediately. With an unchanged end date of T243 but now with 49 Wonders in hand the W(t)/t to beat is 1.01. Beating this requires 36 Wonders in T175 and 38 Wonders in T185. Or, in other words, if we can see any way of getting W(t)/t above 1.01 before Refrigeration we should probably jump at this opportunity. It does seem a little unlikely though.

A couple of thoughts based on this analysis:

If we go for the Corporation/MM/Refrigeration path we need a plan for getting 1 GA, 1 GM, 2-3 GProphets in the next 100 turns. This should not be left to good or bad luck with the RNG. The Prophets seem to be the most critical thing since we cant hire unlimited priests. Are we letting AW finish slowly in Ulundi?

Although we seem to have sufficient hammers some hammer economy is probably suitable. Assuming that the build gap continues to be larger than the capture gap most hammers should be directed to building Wonders rather than units. It makes sense to build many units for a short period but on average more hammers must be put into Wonders. With 100 turns to go there is no rush to capture cities fast and a small army may be sufficient. Reuse of units will make the captured Wonders much cheaper in terms of hammers spent (because the same unit can participate in multiple attacks) and we only need to build replacements for units killed. The HE city may be able to do this by itself with help from less productive cites that are no good for Wonder building anyway. Less productive cities could also build Theaters. I would wait with building Courthouses until we know how many we capture. Capturing 6 would be ideal and if we must build some ourselves they are probably better placed in Cities on another continent.

 

[leif erikson]

Either way is fine, whatever will give us a good mix of units in Portugal. I'd like to get the war against Portugal started ASAP, so I leave it to rrau to get us a well-suited army headed toward Portugal after Jute is taken.

Good luck with Jute.

I realize we haven't used any of the EPs accumulated against Joao. Why not use a spy to incite revolt in Braga when we're ready to attack there so we don't have to waste time bombarding? Ulundi can build a spy in 5 turns WITHOUT working any mines if we chop the forest to the NW (we already have a worker there). We'll get a big discount in Braga because of the presence of Confucianism.

I was reading about this the other day. Neat technique for use of Spies.

 

[ShannonCT]

A couple of thoughts based on this analysis:

If we go for the Corporation/MM/Refrigeration path we need a plan for getting 1 GA, 1 GM, 2-3 GProphets in the next 100 turns. This should not be left to good or bad luck with the RNG. The Prophets seem to be the most critical thing since we cant hire unlimited priests. Are we letting AW finish slowly in Ulundi?

There are only 2 shrines not yet built. And the Blessed Seas quest should make it easy to get 1 Prophet (there are enough landmasses to settler spam). So we'll need X-ville (or Ivoryville?) to grow one more Prophet (unless the AI build another shrine). It will be easy to get a GM from Econ (after we trade for Feudalism and Guilds). The GA can be grown in Ulundi when needed (after SciMeth obsoletes the GLib probably).

I think we have decided that Wat should not be built in Ulundi. If X-ville's next GP is not a Prophet, we might want to build Wat there and run preists.

Although we seem to have sufficient hammers some hammer economy is probably suitable. Assuming that the build gap continues to be larger than the capture gap most hammers should be directed to building Wonders rather than units. It makes sense to build many units for a short period but on average more hammers must be put into Wonders.

Yes, in the last 30-40 turns, it will be all wonders. Now, it should be mostly units for a couple reasons. Capturing cities increases our production capacity. And capturing cities makes it easier to control the victory condition (don't forget that we actually need to time victory with the completion of the final wonders).

As far as your estimate of 100 turns, have you taken into account that we will probably be able to trade for or extort techs like Feudalism, Theology, Guilds, Engineering, possibly DR, and possibly Banking?

 

[leif erikson]

Nice work Fred,


Very interesting!

I think we have decided that Wat should not be built in Ulundi. If X-ville's next GP is not a Prophet, we might want to build Wat there and run preists.

We will need to work the southern fish to run those Priests, denying it to Marbleville.

Yes, in the last 30-40 turns, it will be all wonders. Now, it should be mostly units for a couple reasons. Capturing cities increases our production capacity. And capturing cities makes it easier to control the victory condition (don't forget that we actually need to time victory with the completion of the final wonders).

Are we still planning on Domination or Conquest (by Vassilizing opponents)? That may require some hammers diverted to Cuirassier and Airship builds.

 

[ShannonCT]

We will need to work the southern fish to run those Priests, denying it to Marbleville.

Yes, later we may want to let Marbleville contract so X-ville can have more food.

Are we still planning on Domination or Conquest (by Vassilizing opponents)? That may require some hammers diverted to Cuirassier and Airship builds.

Vassalizing opponents allows for backdoor diplo as well. If we build the UN, the AP will become obsolete, and Conq/Dom/Diplo will be the main options. There might be some weak, wonderless AI out there that we could make friends with to get their UN vote.

 

[leif erikson]

More interesting is the MM->Biology ->Refrigeration end path because we get to the end at T238 with 49 wonders enabled and E(t)/t is unchanged at 1.03. The good thing is that we have extra 10 turns after MM to build the expensive Wonders and the two Wonders enabled by Biology (Nat. Park, 300 hammers) and Cereal Mills (Merchant) are cheap so it should be possible to close the build gap almost immediately. With an unchanged end date of T243 but now with 49 Wonders in hand the W(t)/t to beat is 1.01. Beating this requires 36 Wonders in T175 and 38 Wonders in T185. Or, in other words, if we can see any way of getting W(t)/t above 1.01 before Refrigeration we should probably jump at this opportunity. It does seem a little unlikely though.

Turn 243 looks like the most doable target atm. Are you keeping track of the E(t)/t SCT? We should probably evaluate this at the end of each turn set as we proceed, along with a list of wonders that we do not control. Once we find the other civs, we can begin targeting cities. Let's hope the wonders are clumped into capitals as in test games.

With 100 turns to go there is no rush to capture cities fast and a small army may be sufficient. Reuse of units will make the captured Wonders much cheaper in terms of hammers spent (because the same unit can participate in multiple attacks) and we only need to build replacements for units killed.

The only thing we may have to watch is that we can be too slow, slow enough to allow the AI to gain techs, like Feudalism, that will make our conquests more expensive in units to complete. However, more time may allow the AI to build more wonders for us, thus letting us trade hammers to capture versus hammers to build.

I wonder if it would be worth the effort to target some of the more useless wonders and gift tech as early as possible to allow an AI to build it? No guarantee that they will though...
That list may look like:
Apostolic Palace (since it looks like we're going longer?)
Hagia Sophia
Spiral Minaret
Univ. of Sankore

Already built elsewhere:
Three Shrines - Hindu, Jewish and Buddhist
Great Wall
Statue of Zeus (this is in the city with two shrines)
Hanging Gardens

 

[Cactus Pete]

Either way is fine, whatever will give us a good mix of units in Portugal. I'd like to get the war against Portugal started ASAP, so I leave it to rrau to get us a well-suited army headed toward Portugal after Jute is taken. We will certainly need some cats, and right way, but please some maces as well, if I'm going to do the fighting.
I realize we haven't used any of the EPs accumulated against Joao. Why not use a spy to incite revolt in Braga when we're ready to attack there so we don't have to waste time bombarding? Ulundi can build a spy in 5 turns WITHOUT working any mines if we chop the forest to the NW (we already have a worker there). We'll get a big discount in Braga because of the presence of Confucianism.

Urge rrau to build such a spy. It is likely to speed things up.

Trebuchets are very useful in Bts. Thoughts on researching to build some?

Hope Fred will return to advise once we can see the map, and rrau may want to pause if a map trade is made or when/if another AI(s) is encountered that offer(s) complex trade possibilities.

 

[rrau]

I love that spy trick in BtS!

It sounds like we're ready. Will start after supper tonight.

 

[leif erikson]

Trebuchets are very useful in Bts. Thoughts on researching to build some?

I believe that researching Engineering will throw off our use of Great People to bulb our way to Mass Media.

I love Trebs but I think we should research or trade for Engineering later when the need is greater. For the short term, we only need to throw Joao out.

Once we can "see" the map, I think we shall see how great the need might be?

Hope Fred will return to advise once we can see the map, and rrau may want to pause if a map trade is made or when/if another AI(s) is encountered that offer(s) complex trade possibilities.

Yes, please consider this rrau.

EDIT - And yes, I do hope Fred finds time to visit with us again. Always insightful.

I love that spy trick in BtS!

It sounds like we're ready. Will start after supper tonight.

Good Luck!

Sits back in a nice big chair and thinks about a wild Haka in the back yard because it is too cold to go out and perform one...

 

[rrau]

turn 144

Ulundi: stop wat. change to cat. Donate a mine to Canalville.
Xville: Donate fish to marbleville. continue colossus.
Ivoryville: Took mine from pigville and work one workshop and one plains cottage.

Pigville: gave up mine, gained a cottage.
canalville: Take mine from Ulundi. Can't hire merchant yet.
Horseville: no change
Furville: Work furs
Stoneville: start archer for fogbusting(cheapest unit). Scout not avail any longer (explorers)
Marbleville: Gained fish, but can't hire merchants yet.

Revolt to CS and Pacifism

turn 145

Ulundi: Worker starts forest chop, starts cat. GP due in 1, likely sci
Canalville: fire sci and hire merchant
furville: start pasture
Marble ville: hire merchants
Jute: position troops except for one late cat to try to draw out archers.
making 24gpt now. Leave research to build gold for galley upgrades

turn 146

Sir Issac Newton (sci) Born in Ulundi. Send to Xville to settle.
Start some workshops around canalville and horseville
I decide to take a risk with only one cat ready and attack as ballista has about 70% chance of winning even without the cat attacking.

Battle for Jute:

Cat retreats
Ballista at 89% loses
HA at 69% wins
Axe at 95% wins
Spear at 98% wins


turn 147

Colossus completes
Parthenon build in a far away land. (It's in the city with 2 shrines, stonehenge and Zeus - nice of whoever it is to build them all in one city for us)

turn 148

our caravel sees land, but no borders to E.

turn 149

Finish Astronomy.

Meet Bodaccea. She will trade world maps for gold or tech. Pause per request. We have both gold and techs to spare, so guidance on which to trade.

Western galley upgraded this turn


P.S. My wireless went down while I was online and had to put this stuff on a flash drive and take to the computer hooked up to the cable line. Not sure I'll be able to get in that computer again tonight, so if you have any suggestions on which to trade for the world maps, please post asap so I can play and repost.

 

[leif erikson]

Nice work thus far.

I would trade her Code of Laws for her World Map.

May want to start building Maces in X-ville? May want to hire another Merchant in Stoneville, from the mine.

Too bad we lost Parthenon...

Keep up the good work.

EDIT - Just noticed we *could* hire a Priest in X-ville by giving up a coastal tile?

 

[ShannonCT]

Trading CoL is good with me. Use money to up research.

Make sure to get open borders and silk from Boedica.

After Ulundi completes spy, hire one more scientist.

 

[rrau]

In stonevilleI wanted to finish the archer to fogbust then will hire the current miner to be a merchant. (one turn to go on archer)

Traded for WM and it was a great trade value! Only downside is she doesn't know location of the double holy city.


I won't play anymore tonight. Will play again late tomorrow or on Saturday.

[edit] ok on increasing research and the above trades. Will also settle scientist in xville....but not tonight...zzzz

[edit2] Should have another gp in Ulundi in 5 turns, I think it said.