SGOTM 11 - Fifth Element

[unclethrill]

So am I waiting or not? BLubmuz? Tell me to play since you won't change your decision or to wait because you are on the 'fence'.

 

[havr]

Agreed. It will need to be decided real time during the game. I was just bringing up the fact that this is a viable strategy to keep the science slider high. Worst case, Writing slides 1 or 2 turns, which should be fine since I learned Writing 2 turns before completing the Oracle. Plus, we need to evaluate BLubmuz' suggestion of building the Oracle in Silver City, which will change the timing and should give us even more leeway on when we finish Writing.

In my test games, the bottleneck for Oracle was writing (to get CoL). I was able to get writing on T90 by waiting with City3. How were you able to get Oracle in <T90 and build City3 before? There are no cottages and no commerce resources (except silver)...

 

[unclethrill]

I was wondering too...
No need you summarize the trade off, i't clear to me. And it put me on your side when i tested yesterday night. But those tests were affected by a mistake, have Dehli grow 4 before start the first settler.
Now, i gave my reasons. A good game cannot be played only with hammers/food/commerce in mind.
As Mitch said, to place a fogbuster strategically can largerly repaid us of that lost. What if a barb warrior (i won't even think to a barb archer) enters our borders and pillages the corn? 8 worker turns lost, at best.

Okay so I'm playing now based on this.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I'm still not sure which is the best decision. I was focused on grow to 4, which is a mistake.

The cons are those 2H+4C 1 turn earlier and maybe the settler out 1 turn earlier.

Here's the truth:
By getting Warrior 2 before Worker 2, we lose the following:
3 Food from the north Corn WHICH GETS CONVERTED INTO 3 Hammers
3 Food from the west Corn WHICH GETS CONVERTED INTO 3 Hammers
1 Hammer and 4 Commerce from the Silver
2 Hammers from the Plains Hills square
1 Food (unless a Forest grows there) from the Grassland River square


I can boldly make this claim, since the following path seems to be the one that we are going for:
Worker 1/Warrior 2 -> Warrior 2/Worker 1 -> Settler 2 -> Start on Warrior 3 -> Grow to Size 4 -> Complete Warrior 3 -> Settler 3

Now, the difference is between whether we get Worker 1 or Warrior 2 out first.

While BLubz asked if Settler 2 would be delayed and the answer is no, Settler 2 still comes out early enough that the loss of an improved Silver for one turn still matters.

However, what no one has noticed until now (because we've been all over the map with test scenarios) is that the SIX FOOD FROM THE CORNS BECOMES HAMMERS!

Those Hammers overflow from Settler 3 into Warrior 3. The difference is that we get Warrior 3 ONE TURN SOONER!

This overflow also helps because after growing to Size 4, the best use for our excess Food is as Hammers in Settlers or Workers. With the Warrior-2-first approach, not only do we lose out on 6 Hammers which are of IMMEDIATE use in completing Warrior 3 sooner, but we also lose out on 8 MORE Food that could have been converted into Hammers for Settler 3 and then carried forward as future overflow.


BLubz was on the fence partially because I'd said that we lose 6 FOOD, but in reality, that 6 FOOD has already been converted into 6 HAMMERS, which have an IMMEDIATE impact on the next build of Warrior 3.


So, in total, we will lose:
3 Hammers + 3 Hammers + 1 Hammer + 4 Commerce + 2 Hammers + possibly 1 Food =
1 Food + 9 Hammers + 4 Commerce.

We REALLY DO lose almost half of a Warrior in terms of pure Hammer output, and most of that has an immediate impact in delaying the completion of builds starting from the Warrior 3 that gets built immediately after Settler 2.

Add on top of that the fact that we waste the possibile immediate value of 8 Food's conversion to Hammers by storing in our Foodbox and not growing with it to Size 5 for a long time. If we were to get Warrior 3 on turn faster (which we can do by going Worker 1 -> Warrior 2), we would instead be converting that Food immediately into Hammers IMMEDIATELY. Thus, we are making an IMMEDIATE, but temporary, throwing away of 8 Hammers that have a use now. We get those Hammers as Food, but that Food has no use until we've stopped spamming Settlers & Workers from the capitol.


I have run test games to back up this information, but only just now finished completing the scenario where we go Warrior 2 -> Worker 1, followed by Settler 2 -> Warrior 3, as this combination hadn't really been looked at closely before. Delaying Warrior 3 by 1 turn really sucks for our economy (exploration-wise it hardly matters), further putting us temporarily behind due to that waste of a chance to convert 8 Food (not really needed now) into 8 Hammers (very valuable now).


Sorry, that was a long "summary," but I'm under a time limit here, so I don't have time to sugar coat this stuff with as many Spoiler tags as I'd like to use.

 

[Mitchum]

In my test games, the bottleneck for Oracle was writing (to get CoL). I was able to get writing on T90 by waiting with City3. How were you able to get Oracle in <T90 and build City3 before? There are no cottages and no commerce resources (except silver)...

Did you settle Silver on the lake such that both cities were immediately connected? This gives +2 commerce due to trade routes? Did you settle Silver on T55? Did you mine the silver immediately after finishing the 2 corn farms? During a few points in my test, I indicated what my science rate was. Check with your save and see if you get the same values. If not, replay the game using my notes as a guide. You should be able to duplicate this.

Note that I did NOT settle city 3 out in the boonies. I settled it 5 or 6 squares from the capital IIRC.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

UT, do you have Instant Messaging or any way to contact you to halt things until BLubz reads what I said? I think that my latest explanation can sway BLubz, based on his previous comments about the importance of lost HAMMERS.

And even aside from that issue, in case you want tips on how to avoid the Animals? I guess you can also just post a message here, since many of us seem to be active right now...

 

[Mitchum]

Dhoomstriker, I think we're trying to balance the loss of 8 hammers (which I believe is a big deal) with the safety precautions to avoid a barb infestation from the West. The warrior first option got both fog busters in place by T42. Waiting on the warrior will delay that by some 15 turns, well past your T50 rule... Are you at all worried about that?

Edit: Put another way, we gain 8 hammers now only to throw them away 22 hammers at a time to deal with the barbs to the west...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Okay so I'm playing now based on this.

Does that mean you are going ahead with all of our other suggestions, such not to send the Warrior east? Because if you plan to send him east (I haven't had time to read the latest PPP BECAUSE IT WAS NOT WRITTEN MORE THAN 24 HOURS AGO, but I will go back and read it as soon as I can), then there is at least one other "open issue," and after reading the PPP, I may find more.


That's why we want 24 hours AFTER EVERY LATEST REVISION of a PPP, or at least clear consensus by the active members before that 24 hour period is up. The whole point of the 24 hours is to give every team member a CHANCE to comment. If we all comment before then and there are NO CHANGES to the PPP, then it is fair to proceed before the 24 hours are up. But WHEN THERE ARE CHANGES TO WHAT WAS LISTED IN THE MOST RECENT PPP, it is not fair to expect others to log in less than a 24 hour period before going ahead with the CHANGED PPP.

 

[havr]

Did you settle Silver on the lake such that both cities were immediately connected? This gives +2 commerce due to trade routes? Did you settle Silver on T55? Did you mine the silver immediately after finishing the 2 corn farms? During a few points in my test, I indicated what my science rate was. Check with your save and see if you get the same values. If not, replay the game using my notes as a guide. You should be able to duplicate this.

Note that I did NOT settle city 3 out in the boonies. I settled it 5 or 6 squares from the capital IIRC.

No I didn't do those small, but significant, optimizations.

If we remove the fail gold, what is the earliest we get writing?

 

[BLubmuz]

Okay so I'm playing now based on this.

Go on.
If you got the warrior killed, i kill you. Is this motivational for you?

In my test games, the bottleneck for Oracle was writing (to get CoL). I was able to get writing on T90 by waiting with City3. How were you able to get Oracle in <T90 and build City3 before? There are no cottages and no commerce resources (except silver)...

And the cities are not connected. This worries me.

Can anyone summarize some test? We already tested IIRC.

A safe way is to skip BW. But without BW we can't pre-chop the oracle.
This is the comma 22.
Any insane can ask to be exmpted from war missions.
But anyone asking to be exmpted from war missions is not insane.

 

[unclethrill]

Okay, I just checked one last time before I played. Based on the posts from Dhoom and the tone of the messages that ther is still a decision to be made, I'm gonna wait until tomorrow to play (it's almost midnight now and I wanted to play around 9pm).

I will play the original, finish warrior plan unless BLubmuz tells me otherwise in the next 20 hours.

Sorry for the delay but I think it's prudent at this point.

We really do need to get moving on this game though. We have twice the number of posts of any team and a lot less turns played.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Dhoomstriker, I think we're trying to balance the loss of 8 hammers (which I believe is a big deal) with the safety precautions to avoid a barb infestation from the West. The warrior first option got both fog busters in place by T42. Waiting on the warrior will delay that by some 15 turns, well past your T50 rule... Are you at all worried about that?

It's not a loss of 8 Hammers. It is a PERMANENT loss of 1 Food + 9 Hammers + 4 Commerce and a TEMPORARY loss of 8 ADDITIONAL Hammers. That's big.


AND CLEARLY, IF THE SPOT THAT IRGY WANTED WAS SO GOOD (Trade Route point included) AND IF GETTING THAT FOG BUSTER OUT TO THE WEST IS SO IMPORTANT, WE CAN JUST build:
Worker 1 -> Warrior 2 and then GO STRAIGHT WEST WITH Warrior 2, getting there WELL AHEAD OF When Barb Archers appear.


LIKE HONESTLY, THIS "EXTRA EXPLORATION" stuff is easily mitigated in ways like that. The permanent loss of Food + Hammers + Commerce won't be mitigated at all.

 

[Mitchum]

Does that mean you are going ahead with all of our other suggestions, such not to send the Warrior east? Because if you plan to send him east (I haven't had time to read the latest PPP BECAUSE IT WAS NOT WRITTEN MORE THAN 24 HOURS AGO, but I will go back and read it as soon as I can), then there is at least one other "open issue," and after reading the PPP, I may find more.


That's why we want 24 hours AFTER EVERY LATEST REVISION of a PPP, or at least clear consensus by the active members before that 24 hour period is up. The whole point of the 24 hours is to give every team member a CHANCE to comment. If we all comment before then and there are NO CHANGES to the PPP, then it is fair to proceed before the 24 hours are up. But WHEN THERE ARE CHANGES TO WHAT WAS LISTED IN THE MOST RECENT PPP, it is not fair to expect others to log in less than a 24 hour period before going ahead with the CHANGED PPP.

I agree with this in principle. A new PPP was proposed based on BLubmuz jumping the fence at the 11th hour. There needs to be enough time for all to review said PPP before playing forward.

As an example, Dhoomstriker wasn't focused too much on warrior 2's movements becasue it still wasn't decided when to build him. Now that a new PPP exists which includes warrior 2, his movements are meaningful and should be agreed.

Please hold if you have not yet played. Losing 1 day is better than losing a warrior due to sub-optimal movement (not that I don't trust your ability to keep him safe).

By the way, as soon as your turnset is done, we'll be caught up with all but one other team. Plus, I assume that my turnset will follow shortly after. So, even though we have a ton of posts and discussion going on, we're not really behind the other teams.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Okay, I just checked one last time before I played. Based on the posts from Dhoom and the tone of the messages that ther is still a decision to be made, I'm gonna wait until tomorrow to play (it's almost midnight now and I wanted to play around 9pm).

Thank you. I will now feel comfortable taking my time to go back and read your PPP, and will try to give any more feedback that I can think of (good and bad).

 

[Mitchum]

AND CLEARLY, IF THE SPOT THAT IRGY WANTED WAS SO GOOD (Trade Route point included) AND IF GETTING THAT FOG BUSTER OUT TO THE WEST IS SO IMPORTANT, WE CAN JUST build:
Worker 1 -> Warrior 2 and then GO STRAIGHT WEST WITH Warrior 2, getting there WELL AHEAD OF When Barb Archers appear.

Although this is a valid alternative, Irgy was basing his location of Silver on what he could see. The location could easily be moved to the east if we find tons of sea food down that way and not to the west, right? I wouldn't want to lock into Silver's location until we know more, would you?

I can sense that you're a bit anxious right now (i.e. ALL CAPS). I agree that the loss of basic units is a cost that must be weighed against the ability to explore Silver's location and fog busting. I'm still in the worker first camp even though I've been playing Devil's Advocate. My goal was to explore both sides of the argument and bring the decision to a head. I just hope that unclethrill hasn't played until everyone that is online can cast their vote since a new PPP was posted.

 

[BLubmuz]

I start suspecting all of us, me first are stupid.

We clearly see each other on line, we can chat in MSN in real time and we're pestering this thread with 30 posts in 1 hour. And with the risk of xposts and so on.

While i was writing my previous post, 4 or 5 were posted.

Dhoom, as i said, your reason are good.
But what Mitch says is a good reason too.
In fact, i renounced to scout east to have the fogbusting warrior in place before turn 50.
No way to arrive in place and to scout South if we wait 15 turns

 

[Mitchum]

We really do need to get moving on this game though. We have twice the number of posts of any team and a lot less turns played.

I'm not too concerned about our number of posts per turns played ratio. I agree that we're probably 10x everyone else. However, if doing this leads to a game that provides everyone a chance to be heard and to participate, I think we'll all be better off and have more FUN.

Discussion, disagreement and debate are the best ways for us to push the envelope, to play the best game we possilbly can, and to learn from each other.

Now go and fix that shelf the right way. I know that you rushed through it just so you could play your turn set!

 

[havr]

Okay, I just checked one last time before I played. Based on the posts from Dhoom and the tone of the messages that ther is still a decision to be made, I'm gonna wait until tomorrow to play (it's almost midnight now and I wanted to play around 9pm).

I will play the original, finish warrior plan unless BLubmuz tells me otherwise in the next 20 hours.

Sorry for the delay but I think it's prudent at this point.

We really do need to get moving on this game though. We have twice the number of posts of any team and a lot less turns played.

Why would tomorrow be any different from today?

There will always be more discussions, more points to think about, and more ideas... etc.

Call me unexperienced, but I fail to see how this small decision can be so substantial. Your tests even confirmed that the difference is not big in any case...

At the end we might found ourselves later on very tight in terms of time and with bigger decisions to make...

 

[unclethrill]

Does that mean you are going ahead with all of our other suggestions, such not to send the Warrior east? Because if you plan to send him east (I haven't had time to read the latest PPP BECAUSE IT WAS NOT WRITTEN MORE THAN 24 HOURS AGO, but I will go back and read it as soon as I can), then there is at least one other "open issue," and after reading the PPP, I may find more.


That's why we want 24 hours AFTER EVERY LATEST REVISION of a PPP, or at least clear consensus by the active members before that 24 hour period is up. The whole point of the 24 hours is to give every team member a CHANCE to comment. If we all comment before then and there are NO CHANGES to the PPP, then it is fair to proceed before the 24 hours are up. But WHEN THERE ARE CHANGES TO WHAT WAS LISTED IN THE MOST RECENT PPP, it is not fair to expect others to log in less than a 24 hour period before going ahead with the CHANGED PPP.

I'm going to bed now. I just erased a long "pi$$ and moan" post about all of this. Maybe someone can figure out what I should do. Goodness knows it doesn't matter what I post at this point.

 

[Mitchum]

I'm going to bed now. I just erased a long "pi$$ and moan" post about all of this. Maybe someone can figure out what I should do. Goodness knows it doesn't matter what I post at this point.

It's the up players job to play the game according the wishes of the team, yes? It is the up players role to follow the team rules, right? Don't discount that you have some influence over how this game is played. You're voice and vote are just as important as everyone else's on this team. I hope you're not too discouraged...

Anyone that delays Unclethrill's turnset by more than 24 hours will be put in a vitural headlock by me!!