SGOTM 11 - Fifth Element

[Mitchum]

Confucian Missionary

On what turn do you plan on spreading Confucianism in Delhi? How many turns does the missionary sit in Delhi before trying to spread religion there? Since you're building units in Delhi (worker, warrior, settler), there is no hurry, right? If so, I would think that you could use more than just 2 turns to explore Zara's land with your missionary...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Great People

Spoiler :

Bulbing Civil Service seems like a good idea then. Can we really get a scientist from Riverdale before the capital overtakes it again though without running less specialists than we'd like to in the capital though? The capital will have 2 scientists worth of gpp just from wonders. Maybe The Great Library could be built in riverdale? Although it's such a tech detour to get it that it probably won't help until we're popping scientists to get education or some such. Still, with the Pyramids and the philosophical trait it's a great wonder to pick up.

Let's work out the Math.
The capitol will have The Oracle (2 GPP) + The Pyramids (2 GPP) = 4 GPP / turn
If the capitol also runs 2 Scientist Specialists, at 3 GPP each, 2 * 3 GPP = 6 GPP / turn + 4 GPP / turn = 10 GPP / turn * Philosophical Trait bonus of 100% = 10 * 2.0 = 20 GPP / turn
Riverdale will have 2 Scientist Specialists, at 3 GPP each, 2 * 3 GPP = 6 GPP / turn * Philosophical Trait = 6 * 2.0 = 12 GPP / turn

The 1st Great Person requires 150 GPP
The 2nd Great Person requires 300 GPP
The 3rd Great Person requires 450 GPP
The 4th Great Person requires 600 GPP

If Riverdale is to produce the 3rd Great Person, it needs to accumulate GPP for 450 / 12 = 37.5 turns. However, that's 37.5 (actually 38) turns AFTER we have completed the Library. In my test game, I was building Cottages, but I could instead focus on chopping out 2 more Forests, in order to get the Library about 10 turns from when The Pyramids are complete, with 4 population points in Riverdale.

So let's be safe in that number and say 50 turns after we build The Pyramids is the EARLIEST that Riverdale can generate a Great Scientist.


If we try for a Great Scientist as our 2nd Great Person in the capitol, we can get a Great Person in 11 turns after building The Pyramids, by immediately hiring 2 Scientists. Just because we TRIED for a Great Scientist doesn't mean that we will get it. But we'll have a use for the others--Civil Service for a Great Prophet or an "instant Apostolic Palace" with a Great Engineer. I don't worry about not being able to generate another Great Engineer later, by the way, and I do not think that it would be wise to let our 2nd Great Person "sit on ice" for most of the game.

Anyway, if we don't get a Great Scientist then, we can keep pushing to get one in the capitol or else we can reduce the capitol's Great Person production and aim to get one for certain in Riverdale.

It would take us an additional 450 / 20 = 22.5 turns to get it in Delhi.

So, in a span of 11 + 22.5 (really 23) = 34 turns after The Pyramids are complete, we can have 2 shots at a Great Scientist in Delhi. Should we have failed the first time, we can grab Civil Service and then Alphabet, as Alphabet is required in order to Lightbulb Philosophy.


3rd Great Person--from Delhi?
Let us say that we will end up with our 2nd Great Perrson as a Great Prophet no matter what we try to do (which is highly likely, even with 2 Scientist Specialists being hired, since The Oracle has been putting in Great Prophet GPP for a long period of time). Should we try for our 3rd Great Person from Delhi and should it fail to be a Great Scientist, then we'll just manually plug away at Philosophy. If we get a Great Prophet at that point, we'll probably settle him (we don't want a Holy Shrine, as getting one spreads religion), and we'll settle him in either:
a) the capitol, for increased Wonder production
b) our Great Person Farm, to help build a Granary, a Library, and the National Epic

A relatively-early settled Great Prophet adds good value, due to the extra production that he supplies over his lifetime. The Gold boost from a settled Great Prophet usually equates to having the Holy Shrine of a poorly-spread religion. Remember, in this game, we want all of our religions to be poorly spread in foreign Cities, or else we will just be tempting the AIs to switch into Free Religion, so we won't have the alternative of a "well-spread" Religion's Holy Shrine.


3rd Great Person--from Riverdale?
50 turns after The Pyramids, say, even 60 turns, in case we need to irrigate a Flood Plains square, we should be able to complete our Library, hire 2 Scientist Specialists, and complete a Great Scientist.

Maybe.

If Zara truly is building The Great Wall or Stonehenge, which would make sense due to his settling delay, then we might not get a 4 Food square in time. So, we can't 100% plan on this approach, in case we can't get the Cow or a Flood Plains square in time, as you need:
2 Grassland Farms and 4 population points for 1 Specialist
4 Grassland Farms and 6 population points for 2 Specialists
1 Grassland Cow or 1 Flood Plain Farm and 3 population points for 2 Specialists

Clearly, Food is king.

Should we happen to end up with extra population points above those numbers (it will be hard enough achieving those numbers as it is!), then such an extra Citizen can just work a Grassland Cottage or an Irrigated Plains square, without disrupting the results of the numbers.

Thus, we won't be able to get the 3rd Great Scientist from Riverdale without a 4-Food square, plain and simple.

If we don't get a 4-Food square within a reasonable time frame, then we will need to pour our resources into cultural buildings in Riverdale until we do obtain one.


The Results of the Calculations
So, when doing the math on the subject, yes, I think that we should try for a Great Scientist from our capitol instead of from Riverdale as our 3rd Great Person.


But what about our 2nd Great Person? Early Bureaucracy would be really amazing.

However, we can mitigate the risk of missing a Great Scientist as our 3rd Great Person if we try to get a Great Scientist for both our 2nd and 3rd Great People from Delhi.


If we were to hire Science Specialists in the hopes of getting a Great Scientist as our 2nd Great Person, and should we be successful in getting a Great Scientist, we can next fire the Scientists and hire Priests in Delhi, getting Civil Service 23 turns later via a Great Prophet as our 3rd Great Person. That would be the price for increasing our chances of securing Philosophy via a Great Scientist.

Of course, should we get a Great Scientist for our 2nd Great Person and then TRY for a Great Prophet as our 3rd Great Person, we could also end up with a Great Engineer for our 3rd Great Person, which would mean that we'd have to keep trying for a Great Prophet as our 4th Great Person and that Bureaucracy would be greatly delayed. Perhaps we could speed things up a bit at that point with the help of a Temple from a 3rd Religion, giving us an extra 6 GPP / turn, as well as 4 GPP / turn by building the Apostolic Palace using the Great Engineer in the capitol, but Bureaucracy wouldn't be early at all anymore.


The alternative is to AIM to get Civil Service about 11 turns after completing The Pyramids. Early Bureacracy (an extra 23 turns of it) is potentially worth having to manually research Philosophy. In the meantime for those 23 turns, we will have a choice:
a) Beeline Alphabet -> Philosophy

Spoiler :

and thus plan to not Lightbulb Philosophy, no matter what our 3rd Great Person turns out to be

b) Beeline Alphabet -> something else, such as Aesthetics, to keep the Swedagon Paya out of the hands of the AIs, while saving up some Gold as the 3rd Great Person is about to be born. If a Great Scientist is born, Lightbulb Philosophy, but if one isn't born, use that saved-up Gold to manually research Philosophy

What I would like to do

Spoiler :

Riverdale = No Early Great Person
Let's give up on the idea of getting a Great Scientist in Riverdale for our 3rd Great Person. We'd have to delay Great Person generation in Delhi just to do so and it's not a guaranteed thing. We'll still try for a Great Scientist there, but it'll be one of our later Great People and it can be used to Lightbulb a tech like Education (remember that we have cheap Universities as a Philosophical Civ!).


Delhi = Try twice for a Great Scientist
After we have The Pyramids, we can switch to Representation and hire 2 Scientists.

Great Prophet for our 2nd Great Person? No problem! We will have gotten the extra Science from the Scientists plus we'll get Bureaucracy soon. Bureaucracy can help us to build up our Gold reserves (since it counts as a Commerce-based bonus, not a Science-based bonus) while we try for a Great Scientist as our 3rd Great Person. If we don't get a Great Scientist, the extra Gold that we've saved up will help us to pump out Philosophy manually pretty quickly.

Great Scientist for our 2nd Great Person? No problem! We'll save him until we've learned Alphabet and then Lightbulb Philosophy. Then we'll hire Priests and have 0% chance of getting a second Great Scientist next.

Great Engineer as our 2nd Great Person? Highly unlikely, but again, no problem! Early Apostolic Palace (a very, very expensive Wonder--more costly than The Pyramids by a bit) will be ours. We'll still try for a Great Scientist next. If we get a Great Prophet, we'll Bureaucratically manually target Philosophy and forget being able to Lightbulb Philosophy. If we get a Great Scientist, we'll Lightbulb Philosophy and then we'll just delay our Bureaucracy date.

 

[Mitchum]

A third option is to get an Academy with the Great Scientist and then manually research Philosophy, but I think that I would rather Lightbulb Philosophy or Lightbulb Civil Service if we get a Great Prophet and use Bureaucracy, since Bureaucracy is "stronger" than an Academy, as an Academy only gives a 50% bonus to Science in one City (usually the capitol), while Bureaucracy gives a 50% bonus to Commerce in that same City, meaning that we get extra Gold at a 100% Gold Rate.

Yes, Bureaucracy is stronger than an Academy since we benefit from the 50% bonus whether the science slider is at 0% or 100% (or anywhere in between). Don't forget, Bureaucracy also give a 50% boost to hammers too, making it the clear winner.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Confucian Missionary

Spoiler :

On what turn do you plan on spreading Confucianism in Delhi? How many turns does the missionary sit in Delhi before trying to spread religion there? Since you're building units in Delhi (worker, warrior, settler), there is no hurry, right? If so, I would think that you could use more than just 2 turns to explore Zara's land with your missionary...

I didn't actually send out Warrior 7 from Delhi until Confucianism spread. I needed that extra Happiness in order to send out Warrior 7 for fog-busting the south.


Further, the Missionary was certainly generating a bit of Culture in Delhi, and the more Culture that we get in Delhi, the sooner that I can stop paying 1 Gold per Turn just to fog-bust the Ice Silver Resources with a Warrior.


Further exploration of Zara's lands will just have to wait for a future turnset, after we've settled a couple of Cities and thus at that time won't need almost absolutely every unit that we own for our fog-busting network like we do now.


Plus, I'd rather not meet the other AI or AIs on the other side of Zara just yet, as:
1) We won't be researching techs that we can piggyback off of AIs; they'll just get free research off of us, while we won't benefit
2) The Diplo situation becomes infinitely more complicated before we have a chance to control it better with Buddhist Missionaries
3) If one of them asks us to cancel our deals with Zara, then we have a major problem. What the heck do we do? Piss off that AI and perhaps never get their vote? Cancel deals with Zara, which would likely mean no Trade Routes thorugh his territory with his neighbours, as well?!

It's just asking for trouble to meet the other AIs early, with no material gain and a great chance for negative Diplo modifiers to accumulate. I do not worry about the accumulation of positive Diplo modifiers--those don't take very much time, so we can easily delay meeting AIs and still secure their votes. Actually, doing so is the best way to secure their votes, and the best way to increase our chances of losing their votes is to meet them early on.

 

[Mitchum]

Riverdale = No Early Great Person
Let's give up on the idea of getting a Great Scientist in Riverdale for our 3rd Great Person. We'd have to delay Great Person generation in Delhi just to do so and it's not a guaranteed thing. We'll still try for a Great Scientist there, but it'll be one of our later Great People and it can be used to Lightbulb a tech like Education (remember that we have cheap Universities as a Philosophical Civ!).

I like this approach. In my game, I was really pushing to get a Library in Riverdale, at the expense of other things. Not having to worry about generating a GS at 100% odds in Riverdale means that it can focus on working riverside cottages and becoming a commerce MONSTER!

Delhi = Try twice for a Great Scientist

Spoiler :

After we have The Pyramids, we can switch to Representation and hire 2 Scientists.

Great Prophet for our 2nd Great Person? No problem! We will have gotten the extra Science from the Scientists plus we'll get Bureaucracy soon. Bureaucracy can help us to build up our Gold reserves (since it counts as a Commerce-based bonus, not a Science-based bonus) while we try for a Great Scientist as our 3rd Great Person. If we don't get a Great Scientist, the extra Gold that we've saved up will help us to pump out Philosophy manually pretty quickly.

Great Scientist for our 2nd Great Person? No problem! We'll save him until we've learned Alphabet and then Lightbulb Philosophy. Then we'll hire Priests and have 0% chance of getting a second Great Scientist next.

Great Engineer as our 2nd Great Person? Highly unlikely, but again, no problem! Early Apostolic Palace (a very, very expensive Wonder--more costly than The Pyramids by a bit) will be ours. We'll still try for a Great Scientist next. If we get a Great Prophet, we'll Bureaucratically manually target Philosophy and forget being able to Lightbulb Philosophy. If we get a Great Scientist, we'll Lightbulb Philosophy and then we'll just delay our Bureaucracy date.

I like this approach. However, in an ideal world, our second GP would be a Great Prophet (to bulb Civil Service) and our third GP would be a Great Scientist (to bulb Philosophy). I understand trying for a GS twice just in case we fail the first time. I just hate delaying Civil for too long. The sooner we can run Bureaucracy, the sooner our capital can kick it into overdrive.

If we run two GSs after the Pyramids, what will our chances be for a GS, GPro or GE? After our second GP, if we run two scientists right away, then what will our chances be for a GS, GPro or GE as our third great person? I think a test game is in order just to see what our percentages would be (unless there is an easy way to calculate it).

Regarding calculating GP percentages, I read somewhere that it is not based on the ratio of great person points, but the number of TURNS you have been running different gpp flavors. Does anyone know how this calculation works? The ratio of gpp seems the way it should be, but I'm not sure if it works that way...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

2nd Great Person

Spoiler :

I like this approach. However, in an ideal world, our second GP would be a Great Prophet (to bulb Civil Service) and our third GP would be a Great Scientist (to bulb Philosophy). I understand trying for a GS twice just in case we fail the first time. I just hate delaying Civil for too long. The sooner we can run Bureaucracy, the sooner our capital can kick it into overdrive.

I understand what you are saying and my gut agrees with what you are saying.

However, a delay of 23 turns to Bureaucracy might be worth not having to manually research Philosophy, which is the first tech that a Great Scientist can research without "wasting" too much of its potential via a Lightbulb.

Spoiler :

By potential, I mean that the Great Scientist will just barely research all of Philosophy for you. If you instead use a Great Scientist to Lightbulb a cheaper tech like Math, you don't get any overflow Flasks, while the tech was considerably cheaper than Philosophy, so you would have obtained less Flasks overall from Lightbulbing a cheaper tech like Math.

Now, also consider this point:
We can only hire 1 Priest immediately after completing The Pyramids, but we can hire 2 Scientists immediately.

Further, consider the fact that 2 Scientists + a Library = 12 base Science * 25% = 3 bonus Flasks.

We could optionally hire 1 Priest and 1 Scientist. But then we'd just get 9 base Science * 25% = 2 bonus Flasks.

So, just by running 2 Scientist Specialists at once, we get a free Flask out of them. This bonus may not be as noticeable at 100% Science, as our base Flask output might also not be a multiple of 4 and the two partial multiples could add up.

But the gating factor for The Pyramids was Math, so we'll have to spend some turns at 100% Gold, meaning that hiring 2 Scientists gives us a bigger benefit than 1 Scientist and 1 Priest during the turns that we are running 100% Gold.

Calculating the Odds

Spoiler :

If we run two GSs after the Pyramids, what will our chances be for a GS, GPro or GE? After our second GP, if we run two scientists right away, then what will our chances be for a GS, GPro or GE as our third great person? I think a test game is in order just to see what our percentages would be (unless there is an easy way to calculate it).

On the turn before we own The Pyramids, we have:
Turn 134, 650 BC: 88 GPP, with a 100% Great Prophet probability

On the turn that we own The Pyramids, we have:
Turn 135, 625 BC: 96 GPP, with 96% Great Prophet and 4% Great Engineer probabilities

The "odd" thing about Great Person odds' calculations is that they are not numerically representative, but are instead source-representative.

With 2 different Wonders or 2 different Specialist types, you won't see the difference.

But with a Specialist and a Wonder mixed in, where a Wonder contributes 2 GPP and a Specialist contributes 3 GPP, you'd expect to see an uneven ratio, favouring the Specialist's Great Person type at a ratio of 3/5 = 60%.

Yet, what happens is that each "source" is treated equally. So, with The Oracle for your Wonder and a Scientist for your Specialist, you'll get 5 GPP total (ignoring the Philosophical bonus). You have two "sources" of GPP points, and the GPP total is divided up amongst them.

So, you'll get 2.5 GPP worth of a Great Prophet and 2.5 GPP worth of a Great Scientist.

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...
let's do some Math:
88 GPP = Great Prophet. We know that much already from the turn prior to owning The Pyramids. Yes, we might be able to squeeze out The Pyramids one turn sooner, but let's just go with the proven numbers for now.

On the next turn, we have 96 GPP. 96 - 88 = 8 GPP. 50% of those are allocated to the Great Prophet source and 50% of those are allocated to the Great Engineer source.
Thus we have:
88 + 4 = 92 GPP for a Great Prophet
4 GPP for a Great Engineer
The game shows these percentages as:
96% (0.958333) and 4% (4/96 = 0.041667)

So far, so good.

Now, what about the rest?
Well, we will get, as I said previously, 20 GPP / turn: 2 GPP from the Oracle + 2 GPP from The Pyramids + 6 GPP from 2 Scientist Specialists = 10 GPP * 2.0 for the Philosophical Trait = 20 GPP / turn

On each turn, 25% of those 20 points will go to a Great Prophet, 25% will go towards a Great Engineer, and 50% will go towards a Great Scientist
So after one more turn, we should see:
T136, 600 BC:
92 + 5 = 97 GPP for a Great Prophet
4 + 5 = 9 GPP for a Great Engineer
0 + 10 = 10 GPP for a Great Scientist
The interface gives these values: 116 GPP total, 83%, 7%, 10%
97/116 = 0.83621%
9/116 = 0.077586%
10/116 0.08621%

The numbers aren't matching up exactly, so I don't know what to say there.

Forget calculating it then. I don't know why the numbers don't match up.

I just played through the text game, hiring 2 Scientists immediately and ending the turn until there was 1 turn left to complete the Great Person.

Here are those results:
Turn 145, 425 BC:
296 GPP, 44% Great Prophet, 44% Great Scientist, 15% Great Engineer

Our next Great Person would actually come 22, instead of 23 turns, later, due to GPP overflow.

Other than a potential slight offset in calculation due to the overflowed GPP, we SHOULD then have these odds for our 3rd Great Person:
25% Great Prophet, 50% Great Scientist, 25% Great Engineer


Okay, well, it seems that a change was made in either BTS of BUFFY. At least according to the percentage values DISPLAYED in the interface

Spoiler :

who knows what goes on behind the scenes--Diablo II was notorious for displaying completely inaccurate info when compared to what really happened behind the scenes and I wouldn't put it past either the BTS or BUFFY team to change one (the interface) and not the other (the underlying calculation logic)

, since we actually see:
20% Great Prophet, 60% Great Scientist, 20% Great Engineer

Those numbers give you a much easier calculation: if you hired a Scientist Specialist, then his 3 GPP would "count" as 3 Great Scientist Points. No longer do we see the "source-based calculation" that used to happen.

Thus, the end result is that in BTS, it is now easier to:
Build The Oracle and run Scientists if you want a Great Scientist, than it is in either Vanilla or Warlords.

Imagine that. You learn something new just by running the Math.

How the Calculation Works

Spoiler :

Regarding calculating GP percentages, I read somewhere that it is not based on the ratio of great person points, but the number of TURNS you have been running different gpp flavors. Does anyone know how this calculation works? The ratio of gpp seems the way it should be, but I'm not sure if it works that way...

Well, it used to be a source-based calculation, but now it's easier:
If your Wonder produces 2 Great Prophet Points, you now get 2 Great Prophet Points into your current Great Person "build." If you're Philosophical, you'll get 2 * 2.0 = 4 Great Prophet Points. It's now very simple to calculate.

That is, according to what we see in the interface. If the interface lies, then the old source-based way is what we would rely on, but I think that we'll just have to trust the programmers to have done their jobs properly and go with what the interface shows.

If someone wants to check the patch log for the latest BUFFY Mod release as well as the patch log for the latest BTS release, we can see if any hint was made about this stuff being changed.

Or you could just fire up BTS without the BUFFY Mod loaded and World-build yourself an example to see if the same results (Oracle + 1 Scientist Specialist from a Library) occur--whether that ratio is 40% and 60% or 50% and 50%. That way we'd be able to isolate whether the change is in BTS or BUFFY.

 

[Mitchum]

Funny, I was running the same test you were and I came up with the same results. Buffy shows that it's not the source, but the number of GPP, which does in fact simplify the math as you said.

I started a non-Buffy game, built the 'Mids and Oracle in 1 turn (can we do that in the real game?), gave myself a library, several pops and some food-generating improvements. I then hired two scientists. So, I was getting 20 GPP/turn with 4 GPro, 4 GE and 12 GS.

On the next turn, my percentages were 20% (GPro), 20% (GE) and 60% (GS). Excellent. The percentages are based on the number of GPP, not the source.

I put together a quick spreadsheet and this is what I came up with.

If we hire 1 priest on T135 and another one on T137 when the second temple is done we would have:

T146 - 84% GPro and 16% GE.​

If we then fire the two priest and hire two scientists:

T169 - 20% GPro, 60% GS and 20% GE.​

Or, if we follow Dhoomstrikers suggestion and hire 2 scientists on T135 and keep them there, we would have:

T146 - 43% GPro, 42% GS and 15% GE. (A bit different that what Dhoomstriker said below, but then his percentages add up to 103%.
T168 - 20% GPro, 60% GS and 20% GE.​

I agree that the second option gives us the best chance of getting a GS. The biggest issue is that if we're planning on a GPro and partially research Civil Service, a GS would have to sit until we can research Alphabet. On the flip side, if we're planning for a GS and research Alphabet, if we get a GPro, he won't be able to fully bulb Civil Service.

With that said, what flavor of great person should we plan on (and try for) and what should we research after Math? Alphabet or CS?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Which Kind of Great People to Try For

Spoiler :

T146 - 43% GPro, 42% GS and 15% GE. (A bit different that what Dhoomstriker said below, but then his percentages add up to 103%.
T168 - 20% GPro, 60% GS and 20% GE.​

I gave the percentages for the turn BEFORE the Great Person would be created for the 2nd Great Person. I also gave the values that the interface displayed. So, I would trust your calculations more on the matter as a result, even though the changes are relatively insignificant (off by a percentage point or two at most).

The "simple, layman's math" says:
A 42% chance of getting a Great Scientist + a 60% chance of getting a Great Scientist is bigger than 100%, so if we try for a Great Scientist both times, surely, we'll get a Great Scientist!

Clearly, this type of math is quite bogus, but in practice, since we're dealing with random values, we might as well use bogus math to justify the decision as much as any precisely quantifiable math.


In other words, it's just guesswork.


Yes, we are best off if we can get:
A] 2nd Great Person = Great Prophet
3rd Great Person = Great Scientist


HOWEVER, I would RATHER see:
B] 2nd Great Person = Great Scientist
3rd Great Person = Great Prophet

in place of:
C] 2nd Great Person = Great Prophet
3rd Great Person = Great Prophet


Trying for either A] or B] could still result in C].

Trying for B], though, would reduce the chances of running into the worst-case situation C].

Research Path

Spoiler :

I agree that the second option gives us the best chance of getting a GS. The biggest issue is that if we're planning on a GPro and partially research Civil Service, a GS would have to sit until we can research Alphabet. On the flip side, if we're planning for a GS and research Alphabet, if we get a GPro, he won't be able to fully bulb Civil Service.

Let's research the 360 or so Flasks required for Lightbulbing Civil Service.

Then let's hope that Zara trades us Alphabet.

Problem solved!


Seriously, though, if we can't get Alphabet in trade, then there is no rush on Lightbulbing Philosophy, as an AI would need to research Code of Laws, Math, and Alphabet in order to beat us in a Lightbulbing action (assuming that the AI is capable of Lightbulbing). So, the rush to Alphabet isn't that big of a deal. However, regardless of how late our Great Prophet comes in, we'll want to immediately Lightbulb Civil Service, which means that we should pre-research the outstanding portion of the tech ASAP, instead of partially reseraching Alphabet, backtracking to research the rest of Civil Service, and then completing research on Alphabet.

The sooner that we get to Bureaucracy, the sooner that we'll research Alphabet.

 

[BLubmuz]

It seems that any thing i planned is asking twice the time i planned for it.
The worst (CIV-wise) is that many things are coming... not even the time to follow the thread.

I see you're testing, i hope to contribute around the end of the week. No more dates, there should be some curse.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

It seems that any thing i planned is asking twice the time i planned for it.
The worst (CIV-wise) is that many things are coming... not even the time to follow the thread.

I see you're testing, i hope to contribute around the end of the week. No more dates, there should be some curse.

Hi BLubmuz,
My PPP has already been written and we're just waiting on your comments. Everyone else has agreed to it without any suggested changes.

Here are the relevant links: My PPP and a high-level version of the overall plan that my PPP is following. Finally, here is an analysis of my high-level results.

If you have anything that you disagree with, it would be wise to say so now, so that we can discuss the relevant issues as a team. If you have no obvious objections, then I'll be playing the PPP soon.

 

[Mitchum]

BLubmuz appears to be busy and likely won't be checking the thread again tonight. Based on the fact that your PPP has been posted for 24 hours and the fact that it has been approved by everyone but BLubmuz, who stated that he is very busy until the end of the week, I suggest that you play per the PPP today.

Then, since you will be leaving us for three weeks, it would be good if you could give us enough details of your plan such that the next two players can craft a PPP that follows your basic strategy.

 

[havr]

BLubmuz appears to be busy and likely won't be checking the thread again tonight. Based on the fact that your PPP has been posted for 24 hours and the fact that it has been approved by everyone but BLubmuz, who stated that he is very busy until the end of the week, I suggest that you play per the PPP today.

Then, since you will be leaving us for three weeks, it would be good if you could give us enough details of your plan such that the next two players can craft a PPP that follows your basic strategy.

I agree. I think Blubmuz "I am busy" post is implicitly saying "do whatever you guys think, I don't have time for this now". I think it is safe to play.

 

[unclethrill]

I agree. I think Blubmuz "I am busy" post is implicitly saying "do whatever you guys think, I don't have time for this now". I think it is safe to play.

I agree. I heard from BLubmuz earlier and he told me how busy he was at work and that he really regretted not being able to run the tests he wanted to run.

I think, in general, we have explicit agreement from all but one and implicit agreement from them.

I say go ahead and play. I expect the perfect turnset done before I get up in the morning here!

 

[Irgy]

Yep I'm looking forward to seeing the turnset too.

I had a go at running through it last night. Next time I do that, I'm going to print it out first rather than alt-tabbing. I got about halfway through it before running out of time. On the whole, it felt so optimised that I'd dare not change a single step

Just on the great person debate, to increase the options a bit we could consider running more specialists. So, for instance, running both scientists and the priest for great person #2 straight after the pyramids, or switching to cast system to run a very large number of scientists for great person #3. We certainly have the food to do it. It will hurt production of course, which may not be acceptable given how unproductive sliverside and riverdale are, but it would speed up both great people and increase our chances of getting a scientist second (if we get a prophet first).

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I'm done... Go look at the Summary page or something while I write things up

Spoiler :

Okay, I'm done!

I've uploaded the saved game, so you can feel free to look at the Team Summary page to see how we stand up against other teams. Please be careful on that page, as the links in the table lead to other teams' saved games under the Latest Save heading (do not click on those links) and to other teams' threads under the Team Thread heading (do not click on those links).

Basically, don't click on any links on that page, but feel free to change the options in the "Display format" drop-down list, followed by clicking on the Refresh button to the right of all 3 drop-down lists.

I've never gotten the "Start file list at" drop-down list to do anything successfully, but the "ending at" drop-down list will limit the amount of info that appears in the graph below it, at least for the "Display format" options that generate a graph (the "ending at" drop-down list isn't used for the last two options of "List of saves" and "Team thread posts," as no graph gets generated for either of those two options).

Trying to find my Autolog File

Spoiler :

Okay, but we knew that stuff already Dhoom, just post your turnset log!

Okay, okay, fine... I am stalling because I don't know where on my computer the turnset autolog gets stored. I checkmarked the checkboxes to create an autolog and to automatically start logging, but I don't think that it worked.

Presumably, there is no default path if you leave the path blank, as I cannot find the file on my computer. Oh well, I guess we'll just have to live with the autolog that gets generated by the upload form (see below).

Autolog

Spoiler :

Here is your Session Turn Log from 1750 BC to 1375 BC:

Turn 91, 1725 BC: You have discovered Writing!
Turn 91, 1725 BC: Gandhi has completed The Oracle!

Turn 92, 1700 BC: Confucianism has been founded in Riverdale!
Turn 92, 1700 BC: You have discovered Code of Laws!
Turn 92, 1700 BC: Zara Yaqob has completed Stonehenge!

Turn 93, 1675 BC: Gandhi adopts Slavery!

Turn 96, 1600 BC: Gandhi converts to Confucianism!

Turn 98, 1550 BC: You have discovered The Wheel!
Turn 98, 1550 BC: The borders of Riverdale have expanded!

Turn 99, 1525 BC: Confucianism has spread in Delhi.
Turn 99, 1525 BC: Confucianism has spread in Aksum.

Turn 100, 1500 BC: Zara Yaqob converts to Confucianism!

Turn 103, 1425 BC: The enemy has been spotted near Riverdale!
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Delhi has grown to size 6.
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Barbarian's Warrior (2.00) vs Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) (3.70)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Combat Odds: 1.2%
Turn 103, 1425 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: (Fortify: +10%)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) is hit for 14 (86/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 27 (73/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 27 (46/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) is hit for 14 (72/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) is hit for 14 (58/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) is hit for 14 (44/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) is hit for 14 (30/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) is hit for 14 (16/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 27 (19/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 27 (0/100HP)
Turn 103, 1425 BC: Gandhi's Warrior 3 (Delhi) has defeated Barbarian's Warrior!
Turn 103, 1425 BC: While defending, your Warrior 3 (Delhi) has killed a Barbarian Warrior!

Turn 104, 1400 BC: The enemy has been spotted near Riverdale!
Turn 104, 1400 BC: The borders of Delhi are about to expand.
Turn 104, 1400 BC: You have discovered Pottery!
Turn 104, 1400 BC: The borders of Delhi have expanded!

Turn 105, 1375 BC: The enemy has been spotted near Riverdale!

Summary

Spoiler :

I pretty much followed my PPP as it is currently written. A couple of minor modifications were made:
a) I switched to No State Religion since we weren't running Organized Religion for quite some time
b) Worker 1 didn't build a Road on the useless-to-build-a-Road-on-for-now Grassland square to the NW of the Stone. Instead, he built Roads on the Flood Plains, which may be Cottaged in the next turnset and thus Roads there might help. Really, Worker 1 was just spawn-busting, so it didn't matter what he did; I just tried to make the best use out of him

Other than that, things are about equal to what I wrote in the PPP originally. The PPP has been updated with "EDIT:" comments to reflect the slight changes, to make Mitchum's job of updating the test saved game easier.

Screenshots and (useful) details to follow--I'm not big on trying to "interpret" what went on in a turnset just by reading someone's autolog.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Zara the Dancing Bear
Zara danced and danced his paganistic ritual dances, stunning our Confucian audience.

Somehow, his Archer and Settler party managed to dance up a semi-beautiful pile of rubble that they named after what sounds like a pre-historic rock group, Stoned Henge.

Spoiler :

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Zara's Troubles are Revealed
Well, the source of Zara's troubles in deciding what to do have been revealed: a Barb Warrior to the south, which is apparently randomly blocking Zara from his chosen City site.

Normally, an AI will just pick a nearby site and settle there, but Riverside must be blocking all of the other locations that he considers to be "reasonable."

Spoiler :

The Face-off!
Finally, Zara gets brave enough to face off against the Fearsome Barb Warrior!

Also, there's a look at the barren southern Coast.

Spoiler :

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Zara gave us the Clam
Not much to say there. Zara coughed up the Clam Resource when we begged for it from him when he was Pleased with us.


The north Coast is also barren
Other than the Fish Resource that we'd already seen in the north, the rest of the water area does not have any Seafood Resources.

Spoiler :

Zara's Next Steps
Zara ran his Settler away. I've seen this behaviour before when using my Warrior when declaring war on the AI and when encountering an Archer + Settler party... the AI will first run the Settler away but not attack you on that turn, for fear of losing the attacker and leaving the Settler vulnerable. Yes, the AI is programmed poorly, because they could clearly attack you on the turn that the Settler runs away, but that's not how it works. Once the Settler is safely hidden away, then on the next turn they attack.

So, although we have a Barb Warrior on our gates, there is a 99% chance that Zara will attack it. Zara will get to move before the Barbs move. In the worst case, if Zara proves to be a coward, we have our cultural defence bonus, +25% City Defence bonus (Warrior intrinsic benefit), and +25% Fortification bonus. No need to panic and certainly no need to attack the Barb Warrior. Just "tough it out" inside of our City and we probably won't even get involved in the fight.

EDIT: In the image below, the "truncated" Turn value for when Zara's Settler was 1S of the square where he was listed as being on Turns 102 and 104 was Turn 103.

Spoiler :

 

[Irgy]

Great work Dhoomstriker!

So, from what I understand of the roster I guess that means I'm up? It's perfect timing in RL, as I have an unusually large amount of free time coming up (free time for me is when my wife is at work and I'm at home. I still have to look after a baby though).

As far as I understand, we've mostly planned through this coming turnset already, it's mostly just a matter of nailing the micro down. If someone who doesn't suck with worldbuilder (i.e. not me) could update the test save that would be really, really helpful. I'll then play through in the test save, write down exactly what I did, and start optimising it.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Other Random Comments

The Barb Warrior in the NE

Spoiler :

The Barb Warrior in the NE that was near the Wheat suicided on us. Both he and the Warrior near Zara seemed to "rush" us at the same time. The Wheat one just decided to attack our defending Warrior 3 before he got to our borders.

The good part is that the north is fully spawn-busted, so no new Barb units should appear. The bad part is the same news: meaning that Zara will have no Barb units to block his way to the Wheat.

The fact that he delayed City 2 for so long gives us a fighting chance. I think that with us building 2 Settlers in a row, we stand a strong chance of getting our Wheat location, but surely, Zara will be gunning to put his 3rd City up there, as it doesn't look like he has that much space to the east of him (except for to the SE, where the continent may snake off to where we can meet the other AI or AIs).

Note that Warrior 3 up there has 1 promotion available, but I did not use it up yet, even though Warrior 3 is pretty badly hurt and could heal faster if he promoted. Since there is no danger of new Barb units spawning, unless we move Warrior 6 or Warrior 3 out of position, we do not need to use up this promotion yet.

Warrior 7 by the Ice Silver Resources

Spoiler :

Warrior 7 can "come up" from there now, as our borders just expanded. Our borders will allow us to fog-bust the two squares down there, as per our test game. Fortunately, just like in our test game, there wasn't any land to the south of those Ice Silver Resources, so we won't have to worry about Barb units spawning there anymore.

I didn't move Warrior 7 on this turn, so as to prevent someone from accidentally advancing the turn if they open the saved game and let their finger slip onto the Enter key. I could have unfortified the Warrior in our capitol, but we can't afford unhappiness there at the moment (the timing of Settler 4 and our Great Prophet are very precisely calculated), so I didn't want to leave Warrior 8 (the Warrior guarding Delhi) as the "active unit," in case someone accidentally loaded the saved game and performed a mouse misclick.

Whatever: it is better to be a bit paranoid and make it easier for someone not to goof up than to risk setting someone up for easy, accidental misclick/Enter-keypress failure.

I put a few Signs up in our game and deleted ones that weren't going to be useful anymore

Spoiler :

I tried not to clutter the space, but I did mark off which 5 Forests are eligible to chop for The Pyramids. I also tried to "path out" the "planned Road network" between Delhi and Stone City, as well as Delhi and Wheat City."

Next Actions (mostly for Workers)

Spoiler :

Here's a look at the area around Delhi, for your reference in reading my comments below, because I didn't include such a screenshot in my other turnset images:

Well, there's a lot to say on the subject, far more than I'll say here, but at least initially, I'll say some of our next moves could be the following, however you guys are free to try and find ways to optimize things even better if you can.

Once the GRiv Cottage 1S of Delhi is complete, Delhi should switch from the PHRiv Mine to the GRiv Cottage immediately once it is complete (2 turns from now--on Turn 107, that would be). You won't get a "warning" from a Worker being ready to move--you'll have to plan to make this move in a PPP.


Worker 4, when done with that Cottage, can possibly move to the GHFor to the NE + N of Delhi. Then, he can complete a Road there. With a Road there and then on the GCorn River square to the SW of there, a Settler can sit down on the square 2S of the Wheat (1E of the southern PHFor and 1N of the Oasis) on his 3rd turn of existence.


Worker 3, when done with that Cottage, can complete the GCopper Road in 1 turn, complete the PFor Road 1N of there in 1 turn, and then continue roading 1NW of there, on the P square to the south of the Desert Stone.


Worker 1 will probably be best served just finishing Roads in the area, such that he can fully spawn-bust the area that Warrior 6 used to be covering. The Flood Plains square where he is standing has 2 pRoad turns put into it and could be a good candidate. Also, you could consider "goofing around" with a Road on the PFor 1W of that Flood Plains square, if you find that you have extra turns to kill.


Worker 2, once he's done with the Cottage to the NW + W of Riverdale, can probably move 1SE and pChop the GRiv Forest. Then he can move 1SW to the GRiv square SW + W of Riverdale and start pCottaging. Once we are ready to switch to Organized Religion, Slavery, and Confucianism again, then he can chop the GRiv Forest 1W of Riverdale into the Granary. Presumably, we'd then whip the Granary on the next turn, or whenever we calculate the ideal whipping time to be, if the ideal time to whip hasn't already come and gone.

If we're still not ready to switch Civics when he's done with the second Cottage, then we can consider pChopping the nearby Forests in preparation for putting them into the Library once Mathematics comes in.

We may or may not be able to get a 4Food square by that point, but if not, then we should continue to focus on whipping cultural buildings (probably a Confucian Monastary next) while working the 3Food GRiv Irr square and as many GRiv Cottages as we can.


At least for Riverdale, we should already have started working the GRiv square that is going to be Cottaged, by setting Riverdale to work this square once it grows to Size 2. This step will probably be a manual one, as the game seemed to favour working a GRiv For square in my test game whenever we grew to Size 2.


Warrior 7, after moving 1NW onto the Tundra and into our borders on Turn 105, should probably head generally NW, hopefully sticking to Forests and Road squares, where possible, as well as squares like the Ice instead of a barren Tundra Hills square, for example, in order to reduce the chances of messing up Forest regrowth.

Basically, he's going to slowly make his way out to the west, to help spawn-bust, so that Worker 1 can stop doing that task.

We may or may not want to risk moving Warrior 3 and Warrior 6 a little bit west and south-west respectively, if we need to move Worker 1 out of place before Warrior 7 can get there. Hopefully, we won't need to move Warriors 3 and 6 and we can accept a few "relatively useless" Roads built by Worker 1 until Warrior 7 can get there to support his spawn-busting efforts.


Warriors 1 and 2 are Fortified and can probably stay that way unless you feel some crazy need to move Worker 1 out of spawn-busting position and thus open up a hole in our western spawn-busting.