SGOTM 14 - One Short Straw

[Mitchum]

Bulbing Math sounds very interesting. I agree that an Academy in the capital isn't as compelling in this game as many others. Our capital won't have a ton of commerce (limited TRs, possibly no cottages, etc.). Can someone post a 1000 BC save after bulbing Math?

On that note, it's a holiday weekend here and we have family visiting from out of town. I won't be able to do much playing or testing until Tuesday. I will be able to keep up with the thread though. If that's too long to wait, I'll pass the reigns to the next player.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think we need to play one of these out to the end, at least to see how long it takes to dominate, apart from also killing the Wizard. And see if killing all five AIs is possible with just WEs.

 

[ZPV]

I think we need to play one of these out to the end, at least to see how long it takes to dominate, apart from also killing the Wizard. And see if killing all five AIs is possible with just WEs.

It's very different if the AI have no metal.
Both of the AI we know proclaim their best unit is an archer.
If that's the case, we could relatively easily annex another civilization or just wipe out five of them if we are quick. If they do have metal, WE+Cats are unlikely to be enough.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

No Academy = Are we really Missing Out without One?
Let's say that we aren't going to have a high-Commerce capital, but that we might hire 2 Scientists there in the long run. This situation doesn't sound much different from last game, where we hired 2 Scientists under Representation and had a short period where we hired many Scientists.

If we're going for The Pyramids, we can rule out Cottaging the capital.

In last game, the Palace's Commerce and these Scientists didn't compel us to build an Academy, so I'm not convinced that we should build one here.

Academies pay off when you have a low-Resouce-map; this map is Resource-heavy and therefore it supports good REXing and doesn't require us to keep to 3 or 4 Cities plus an Acadmy just to get anywhere in the game.

In fact, it is so Resouce-rich in terms of VARIED Resource types that I can't see how we'd possibly want to Cottage-up, since Farming-up would actually let us get somewhere even remotely close to our Happiness and Healthiness caps... Gems, Gold, Ivory... plus a ton of Health Resources to trade for a couple of extra Happiness... some Calendar Resources... there's no way that Cottaging makes sense under this scenario.


Now, let's say that we didn't have to kill a Wizard. I think that we can agree that LC's plan is bullet-proof, right? The fear is that we're going to have to tech to Paratroopers and/or Cruise Missiles, since the Wizard is trapped on the other side of non-Culture-Bombable series of Peaks... that's the only scenario where we would conclusively need higher tech; otherwise, War Elephants (or Cuirassiers with a Horse Resource) would be sufficient to take him down, possibly using a Frigate if it's this uber-defensive one-island Fortress idea.

So, that's the fear... that somehow, making an Academy will be all of the difference. Well, if that's true, then we can build an Acadmy later and not be any worse off.

However, I argue that Great Scientists in a game with a ton of Resources and good land are almost always better used in Bulbing your way to techs like Astronomy (Observatories) and Education (Universities and Oxford), since then you can get +25% in your capital and +25% in another high-Commerce City that much sooner, which will be pretty much equivalent to an Academy, PLUS you can build these +25% buildings in other Cities, too!


The decision point seems to be after we Bulb Astronomy, since if you don't Bulb Astronomy soon, then you pretty much can't Bulb it, due to all of the other Great Scientist preferences that get in the way (wooohooo, Lightbulb Printing Press in a game without Cottages--there is a winner).

So, if we have a high-tech-based game, my goals will be to Lightbulb Education and Astronomy, for the fastest teching possible in our massively-REXed empire of high-population Cities (thanks to all of the juicy Resources to speed the growth of the Cities, to give them better production and Commerce, and to support high populations, whether those get used for hiring a ton of Scientists, switching over to Mines/Workshops to pump out Observatories and Universitites, or whether we whip these buildings.

The problem is that you can't Lightbulb Education and THEN Lightbulb Astronomy. Bulbing preferences don't work that way. You have to Lightbulb Astronomy and THEN Lightbulb Education if you want both.

So, for me, if it DOES turn out to be a late-game teching game, then I see us winning the fastests by aiming to Lightbulb both Astronomy and Education and Astronomy has to be Bulbed first just the way that Bulbing preferences work.

We don't even have to turn ourselves into all-out-war mode and can go all-out-Observatory mode if that's what the strength of the Wizard tells us to do. Lightbulbs that could have been used on techs like Chemistry could then be used on Education and we can focus on spamming Flask-multiplying buildings.

So, to me the decision point doesn't branch until we decide if we're going to go all-out-war or not.


The faster that we can get to Astronomy and Education, the better for our tech rate given the awesomeness of SO MANY Cities that we can have, and I don't see an Academy being the fastest ways to them.

Bulbing Philosophy is cool, but we're Philosophical, so we'll get a free Great Scientist before then. We can either use it on an Acadmy in a Cottage-less capital or we can also Lightbulb it.

Forget how many Flasks it nets you--the question is--is there a USEFUL tech to Lightbulb. For example, Alphabet gives us more Flasks than Math, how useful is early Alphabet in a game where we haven't met many of the AIs and it might be a while before we do? Probably no more use than a later Alphabet. What about an early Aesthetics? Are we planning on pumping out The Parthenon? Hmmm, probably not. So, an early Aesthetics would only be useful if we knew a bunch of AIs and could use it to trade Alphabet... which we probably won't know early enough to make a difference.

What about Philosophy, since we're on this discussion? If we do not plan to run Pacifism for a while, then I'd ask why we are Bulbing it? Why was a Bulb on a tech that you don't plan to use going to be a good investment?

Honestly, you either want a Cottaged capital OR a game where you do not want any of the Bulbed techs for an Academy to make sense. In this game, we DO want to use Pacifism, we do want either Galleons (if the Wizard is a push-over) or Observatories (if we need Cruise Missiles) and we do want Universities + Oxford (if we need Cruise Missiles). Here, an Academy does not make sense because:
a) a no-Cottages game just makes sense due to our awesome land
AND
b) we actually WANT the techs on a Great Scientist's Lightbulbing path


Further, I posit that direct Flask value of a Math Bulb is far more powerful than ever: Math gives us Alphabet plus 2 cheap techs in trade and possibly more--the AI in question didn't have anything else to trade to us when I made that trade.

Math is just like Aesthetics in a normal game in the sense that you can use it to get Alphabet and Iron Working in trade. However, it's even better, because normally you have to tech Aesthetics + 2 turns of research into Alphabet just to get Alphabet in trade.

Here, we get even more than Alphabet in trade.

So, Math = the same trading value as (Aesthetics + 2 turns of research into Alphabet + at least 2 cheap techs)

On top of that, Math offers us a few extra Hammers. It also offers us the chance to focus on other techs that we want to SPEED UP OUR REX like Hunting, The Wheel, and gets us able to resaerch other cheap techs or else immediately begin work on Construction/Calendar/Currency (whatever you prefer) earlier--with the latter two speeding up our REX and the former one speeding up Catapults.

Have you ever seen a Vicawoo Catapult Rush? Those suckers are DEADLY to the AIs if you can leverage them early on. He Bulbs Math consistently, and he doesn't even get the extra value that we do here: awesome trading leverage. He doesn't look back. I'm not saying to skip an Academy because someone else rushes; I'm saying to skip an Acadmy because of no Cottages and because we want the Lightbulbable techs; I'm just saying that our Lightbulbing option of Math packs a lot of value.

 

[mdy]

Further, I posit that direct Flask value of a Math Bulb is far more powerful than ever: Math gives us Alphabet plus 2 cheap techs in trade and possibly more--the AI in question didn't have anything else to trade to us when I made that trade.

Math is just like Aesthetics in a normal game in the sense that you can use it to get Alphabet and Iron Working in trade. However, it's even better, because normally you have to tech Aesthetics + 2 turns of research into Alphabet just to get Alphabet in trade.

Here, we get even more than Alphabet in trade.

So, Math = the same trading value as (Aesthetics + 2 turns of research into Alphabet + at least 2 cheap techs)

I don't think this is true. Remember we will get those beakers from trading maths regardless of whether we bulb maths or research it manually, so we don't really get extra beakers from a maths bulb.

n last game, the Palace's Commerce and these Scientists didn't compel us to build an Academy, so I'm not convinced that we should build one here.

That's beacause our research phase finished fairly early, if we teched deeper into the tech tree an academy would have made sense.

So, that's the fear... that somehow, making an Academy will be all of the difference. Well, if that's true, then we can build an Acadmy later and not be any worse off.

We would still lose the extra beakers we would gain from an earlier academy, and we get more beakers for a later bulb. We have no pressing need for an early maths (we can avoid losing hammers by chopping a couple of turns later.)

What about an early Aesthetics? Are we planning on pumping out The Parthenon? Hmmm, probably not. So, an early Aesthetics would only be useful if we knew a bunch of AIs and could use it to trade Alphabet... which we probably won't know early enough to make a difference.

Well aesthetics will open up several useful bulbs such as engineering and machinery so we probably won't want to put if of for too long. Unless we will need all our early production for wars/REX I can easily see the parthenon payin off-with marble and a strong production city it is fairly cheap. Aesthetics also opens up literature for the Great Libray and national epic-both of which go well with a heavy GS strategy.

Now, let's say that we didn't have to kill a Wizard. I think that we can agree that LC's plan is bullet-proof, right? The fear is that we're going to have to tech to Paratroopers and/or Cruise Missiles, since the Wizard is trapped on the other side of non-Culture-Bombable series of Peaks... that's the only scenario where we would conclusively need higher tech; otherwise, War Elephants (or Cuirassiers with a Horse Resource) would be sufficient to take him down, possibly using a Frigate if it's this uber-defensive one-island Fortress idea.

Not necassariy. If there were 3-4 rifles in a city instead of just one it could easily make an elephant rush impractical, and even teching to friagtes requires signifcantly more teching than astronomy.

There is no way to know for certain how much tech we will need to know to beat the wizard, but I think we should assume we will need to go further than astronomy, unless we see more evidence to the contrary-otherwise this game would be little different from a standard domination game, which would make adding it a bit pointless.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Not necassariy. If there were 3-4 rifles in a city instead of just one it could easily make an elephant rush impractical

Are you sure about that? I don't see it really becoming impractical due to a few extra defenders. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to have 4 uber units... it's not like there are 4 Wizards of Oz.

At best, we're looking at normal-promoted units, such that they have City Garrison I as probably the scariest promo to deal with.

Only one of those units really makes sense to be City Garrison III, Drill IV, Guerilla III, Combat VI, etc (the Wizard). Again, I refer back to comments like the following:

I can't guarantee that the Wizard of Oz will not be eliminated by the AI. But how about this:
I will check all the teams saves periodically, and if an AI eliminates him without the team being aware, then I will let that team know.

Not only does he seem to talk about a single unit, not a "crack team of Wizards," but he also thinks that it is possible for the AIs to eliminate him. How can the AIs eliminate him if Paratroopers are required? I don't think that the AI is smart enough to pull off a manouver like that.

Honestly, we're not playing "the Ultimate Challenge that will screw up most players" game but a game where the average team is expected to be able to come up with some reasonably feasible way to take down the Wizard.


So, sure, we can go with the scenario where the Wizard is as powerful as possible and is also in a City with 3 other Riflemen, where the City gets the Hills bonus and the River bonus.

Then we just need to add on X War Elephant numbers to my previous numbers for whichever uber-unit is in the City.

Unless neilmeister manually-added those units, then they will likely be Longbowmen, not Riflemen, when we attack, but okay, let's say that they are Riflemen and that they were all, worst case, built with a Barracks, giving them the City Garrison I promo.

So, how many War Elephants will it take to kill an additional 3 Riflemen defenders with City Garrison I, on a Hills square, and with River defences, and 25% Fortification bonus? I'll go and run a few trials right now...

Note that I performed the trials using all 4 units in the City, not just 3 City Garrison I Riflemen all by themselves. The numbers reflect how many Flanking II War Elephants were required to kill all 4 defenders:
Uber Rifleman + 3 City Garrison I Riflemen 34, 36, 26
Uber Machine Gun + 3 City Garrison I Riflemen 38, 44, 36
Uber Mech Infantry + 3 City Garrison I Riflemen 84, 82, 95
Uber Modern Armour + 3 City Garrison I Riflemen 103, 82, 128

However, what you do need to remember is that we only need to kill the Wizard himself, not capture a City, and the uber defender comes up as the first defender until he is redlined, after which he will still come up before other defenders when the other defenders are wounded, so these numbers represent upper-bound limits. The biggest variance comes from the random number generator and as long as we plan for the worst that the random number generator can throw at us, we'll be good to go.

 

[LowtherCastle]

One thing that is clear. Most early games are happiness capped. This scenario is not. Large, 20-city empires are much more powerful than small ones. REXing and growing our cities to the happy cap asap is good no matter what the end-game will look like. So that has to be our focus. In SG7, CRC won by taking advantage of the happies from forest preserves. In SG12, the ducks had the upper hand by simply REXing faster than we did. We need to REX as fast as possible. If a math bulb speeds up REX, it's worth it. With philosophical, representation, all this food, great persons will be plentiful.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@Dhoom
I agree with your general position, in that I don't think we'll have trouble taking out Oz if our WEs can attack him. That said, I wouldn't make any assumptions about what Neil said in the thread. "He" (Oz) can still be a city. And just because Neil promised to check doesn't mean that it's possible for AIs to kill Oz. We can't make the error of putting more into what Neil said, than what he said.

What we can trust, though, is ZPV's data that there is probalby a rifle-comparable unit in the game, that the barbs do have a city and that that city has remained at pop 1 for a long time. That's interesting stuff.

I think the bottom line wrt Oz is that we need to find him asap, preferably by 1 AD at the latest. I think the new path of GLH in Gems with Pgis City (with or without the math bulb) allows for a wb coming out of Pigs for trade routes and some exploration on that side of the landmass.

 

[ZPV]

Yes, we have every resource imaginable, except for copper and horses. The normal rules do not apply.

If we wind up needing more tech after Astro+Chem, we will still have an awesome empire and 4-hammer workshops. We don't need to worry about investing research for the future much - it's the now and the getting that awesome empire that are important.

 

[Mitchum]

@ZPV

Can you post your save where you got the GLH 3 turns earlier when bulbing Math? It would be interesting to see where this save stands compared to the others with respect to REX at 1000 BC.

 

[ZPV]

@ZPV

Can you post your save where you got the GLH 3 turns earlier when bulbing Math? It would be interesting to see where this save stands compared to the others with respect to REX at 1000 BC.

Here's one with GLH 4 turns earlier
I messed up a bit towards the end and lost some worker turns, and we can expect more beakers in the real game what with me parking the work boat in Gems instead of going to meet AIs.

The short story is, 6 cities, another settler in production, several workers, two monuments. Maybe we can get away without the monuments, and let libraries pop borders - I'm not sure. If so, we can skip mysticism.

 

[Mitchum]

Test looks interesting, ZPV. Great REX and great GLH date (1240 BC). It's too bad we won't get access to the gold resource for so many turns...

One way to look at the Math bulb is not how many beakers we're leaving on the table by using a GS on a cheap tech, but how many turns of research we're saving. Math is about a 10-turn tech at our current research rate. I'd guess that Philosophy will be a 10 to 15 turn tech at the time we'd likely bulb it. So bulbing Math and "losing" all those beakers isn't as bad as it seems.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Math bulb test

In this test, I built the library first. I experimented with 1popping the wb in Gems but it's not as good I don't think because it forces Pigs to grow more slowly and the exploring wb is 10t later. Plus the GLH finished 2t later 1160/1120BC. I stopped work sci after the first GS. This gives more powerful REX, of course, and it might be worth it. Not sure we're in a hurry for the second GS anyway. I also built a wb in Pigs for exploring. I didn't clearcut Marble, but I did clearcut Bridge City. Better would be to leave 1 forest there.

ZPV, it might be good to somehow combine our best ideas, if that makes any sense. My Wash built lib-wkr-wkr-settler-settler-granary.

 

[ZPV]

Math bulb test

In this test, I built the library first. I experimented with 1popping the wb in Gems but it's not as good I don't think because it forces Pigs to grow more slowly and the exploring wb is 10t later. Plus the GLH finished 2t later 1160/1120BC. I stopped work sci after the first GS. This gives more powerful REX, of course, and it might be worth it. Not sure we're in a hurry for the second GS anyway. I also built a wb in Pigs for exploring. I didn't clearcut Marble, but I did clearcut Bridge City. Better would be to leave 1 forest there.

ZPV, it might be good to somehow combine our best ideas, if that makes any sense. My Wash built lib-wkr-wkr-settler-settler-granary.

You're getting Maths 3 turns earlier, but there's a worker delayed by 4 or 5 turns. I'm not sure how that comparison plays out, but if we can afford the worker turns, then your way is probably better.

You're revolting to Slavery earlier than me. I delay it until necessary because it costs maintenance, and on the revolt turn, having at least a couple of workers improving resources or chopping forests isn't much worse than having settler #3 walking.

I've been clear-cutting Bridge City because that's how I've gotten a worker from Washington to the deer right in time. I'm wasting a huge number of turns walking from the wheat up to the pig and back again, so there's got to be a better way to do this.
Marble has just been a matter of convenience - I'm sure it can be worked to leave one of those - I've done it on previous runs.

1-popping the work boat is an interesting idea. With almost 30 overflow from the lighthouse, almost 30 from the work boat, 30 from the final whip, and a possible 80 from three chops, that means only just above 50 base hammers are needed for GLH - we could skip or delay at least one or possibly both plains hill mines (which we won't really want to work once we have a granary anyway).
What I've been doing is delaying the WB one turn by working the lake for a turn, so it can overflow into the lighthouse.

How much road building should we be doing around stone city? When there are worker turns from movement, it's obvious, but otherwise not. With early maths, there's no pre-chopping - once the stone is hooked up it's chop, move, chop again.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I revolt immediately then 1pop the lib. The marble warrior has to garrison for 9t because i don't build another. I figure the lost worker turns are made up with the better chops, but I'm not sure.

The problem with 1popping the wb later is getting Gems back up to pop4 in time. What I hadn't thought of was 1popping the wb into the lh, then 1popping the lh at just under 60h. Doesn't get the extra 30h, but it saves 2 and maybe gets back to pop4 faster and maybe gives Pigs the wheat at a better time. Have to try it out since I'm going to slavery sooner anyway. I don't much like substitue the 20h chop for a mine. That chop could speed up the granary after the borders grow.

I've just been building roads when it made sense. I went myst-TW and chopped an instant monument in Stone, but it won't pop the borders till T80, so the Mids might be just as fast if we optimize them.

My GLH is still coming too late, but I'll try to make it earlier.

You might try firing the 2 sci after the GS. It's pretty powerful.

 

[Mitchum]

Things are looking good. I won't have time to play around with it until Tuesday, but I have a few comment.

The civic cost for Slavery vs. no Barbarianism is the same, at least in LC's latest save.

What is the approximate turn we could finish the 'Mids? ~800 BC? Do we feel safe with that?

By not running scientists in Washington, I guess it speeds up REX but slows down science. Since no tech is on the critical path any more, maybe it's not a big deal.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, there's no point in library(T53)-worker(T57) with no garrison and pop5 because we can get worker(T51)-Library(T55)-garrison(T56) at pop6 with the GS on T64. The key is hiring only one sci on T55.

EDIT: GS on T65. Forgot about the revolt.
.

 

[ZPV]

Okay, there's no point in library(T53)-worker(T57) with no garrison and pop5 because we can get worker(T51)-Library(T55)-garrison(T56) at pop6 with the GS on T64. The key is hiring only one sci on T55.

EDIT: GS on T65. Forgot about the revolt.
.

I can do this with an immediate revolt. It turns out the extra hammer from the mine was critical, and there is just enough science to get Hunting. I've cleaned up the early worker actions a lot too, although it does mean the pigs get pastured a little later.
edit: if I hadn't done a turn of 0%, there would be plenty of science so I wouldn't need to work that lake.
edit2: here's a corrected version
edit3: should've worked that lake after all, and for longer - Gems can grow a turn sooner and isn't short of hammers at this stage.

I tried a whip-the-workboat line, still putting 4 citizens into the other builds, but it doesn't really help.

 

[mdy]

What is the approximate turn we could finish the 'Mids? ~800 BC? Do we feel safe with that?

I think we could easily afford to delay it a little longer if need be.

By not running scientists in Washington, I guess it speeds up REX but slows down science. Since no tech is on the critical path any more, maybe it's not a big deal.

I'm still not keen on a maths bulb, so as long as we get one GS before the mids(regradless of where we build it) I thin trading research for REX is a good trade in the short term.

Unfortunately I will be away from the 5th-9th of September.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Math Bulb Revisited

To me the math bulb is worth it if it does all of the following:

* speeds up the GLH (~1200BC)
* speeds up our REX (REX = cities growing and getting improved, expanding their borders, i.e., Pigs-NE and Stone, and building their granaries)
* gets out TWO exploring workboats EARLY, one from Pigs, one from Gems

Barbs will start building cities soon (> 2cities * #ofPlayers, right?) and they'll grab spoke sites. That will cut off our TRs unless we have alternate routes, such as via Marble culture or what looks like a possible path NW of Pigs (if not an island, which would be even better). So we want to open that path up asap.

We also want to meet AIs asap, imo, to know where we stand with respect to tech trading. With random leaders, we don't know what to expect, but tech trading will be critical if we have to go deep into the tech tree.

----------------------

The completion date for Stonehenge was on the extreme fast end for all the testing we've done. At this point, we CANNOT ASSUME that the other wonders will be slower. ZPV and I have both gotten AI competions of the GLH in the 1200BCs. In the final analysis, I doubt bulbing math or not makes a big difference on our overall tech rate. But...it can make a big difference in terms of whether we get the GLH or not.

How serious are we about the GLH?

The GLH is useful for domination. We could just go all out REX and plan on conquest instead. Sooner or later we'll also capture the GLH.