SGOTM 20 - Misfit Gypsy Nuts

Ronnie1 · Sep 24, 2014

Looking back. I have been following nocho, so I guess I am up.

I love the 1 turn at a time idea!

I might be able to play a turn this evening, 12 or so hours from now. If not, then tomorrow.

EDIT: Took a quick look. Islamabad is going to switch to a Missionary for the Bud holy city. The Bud missionary there is headed for Islamabad.

I still have not seen an answer to the question of whether or not we can gift away cities after the victory screen on the save turn. Any ideads?

nocho · Sep 24, 2014

^ The latter question should be for the admins.

Note there's a islam miss in budd right now.

BSPollux · Sep 24, 2014

Sure, you may use the winning turn as allways.

Ronnie1 · Sep 24, 2014

Then it is simple!

After we win by Domination, we give away every city that doesn't have 2 religions, making sure the Temple total in cities we keep is 62+.

nocho · Sep 25, 2014

Remember though we can gift holy cities only to our vassals, so likely Islamabad and Buddh-city need a second religion before domination triggers.

Sleepless · Sep 25, 2014

Ronnie1 said:
Then it is simple!

After we win by Domination, we give away every city that doesn't have 2 religions, making sure the Temple total in cities we keep is 62+.

Sounds good to me..

Makes sense to buy missionaries this turn then even at full cost. At least that's what I think..

Ronnie1 · Sep 25, 2014

I have played 5 turns.

Vicky did not capitulate to Churchill when he took her city in the north so I declared the next turn.

We burned Hastings and she is down to 1 city. It has 4 defenders with the possibilty to add 2 more IBT, and we have 11 Knights + 3 Elephants that can attack next turn.

The question is do we trust the RNG enough to Cap Augustus now, win by Dom IBT, (we only need 11 tiles which is more than 1/2 of what he has), and then kill off Vicky and give back Rome next turn?

The Upload log

Spoiler :

Here is the tactical situation with Vicky.

Spoiler :

Ronnie1 · Sep 25, 2014

The autolog

Spoiler :

adrianj · Sep 25, 2014

Oh, good stuff Ron. We really are on the brink of victory. Awesome!

So, what you're asking is do we want to wager our entire game on whether or not our 11 knights + 3 elephants can kill a longbow + axe + 2 spears + ?? IBT.

Normally I would say the odds are very good for us. If our odds didn't work out, then we would have a Civ4 tale to tell our Grandchildren - how we wanted to improve our date by just 1 turn, we risked it all! Sure, why not?!

adrianj · Sep 25, 2014

For the record, Sleepless had just played up to turn 161 when Haphazard wrote this:

haphazard1 said:
I have not had a chance to check the latest save yet, but I do not think any team could go from our position to finished in 20 turns. Unless we already have a large military force in England? That by itself will take some time. And 15% of total global land is not grabbed in an instant.

A top team might be 20 turns from done, but they would have set things up much differently than we have so the situations would not be at all comparable. I do think the top teams will finish well before us, probably well before our current turn much less our actual finish date.

and

haphazard1 said:
I think you are being a bit optimistic. We have not even declared on Augustus yet. We should be able to force him to capitulate within 20 turns, but I doubt we will even be landing troops in England within 20 turns much less have forced either English civ to capitulate.

The turn is now 176 and we're deciding if we submit a winning save on T177 or T178 :cool:

adrianj · Sep 25, 2014

Oh, I just thought of another thing. In the interest of tradition, shouldn't Sleepless be taking the save from here?

Just kidding - it's yours to finish Ron :goodjob:

Ronnie1 · Sep 25, 2014

I will wait for input from everyone please.

haphazard1 · Sep 26, 2014

Well, it looks like things have gone a bit faster than I expected. Excellent work by nocho and Ronnie1 and Sleepless! I am still a bit surprised that the AIs went down that easily. I guess we were stronger than I thought.

On the decision...what is the defense on the city tile? I can't quite tell from the screenshot, can't load the save right now. Is it on a hill? Walls/culture defense? The longbow is a tough defender, and since we are all mounted the spears are also fairly tough. Hmmmm. 14 against 6...what are the other units that will presumably move into the city? Looks like 1 mace? What is the other unit?

If it is flat ground and not a hill, we are probably OK at 14 against 6. But if it is a hill, especially if the other possible reinforcement is another longbow or spear....hmmmm.

Edit: Also, how big is the city? Large enough to whip another longbow in between turns?

nocho · Sep 26, 2014

If it's 14 vs 4 (not 6, there are 2 workers, right?), go for it. If it all fails, it'll be epic too like aj says.

You did doublecheck other conditions, right? Specifically 2 religions per city.

Ronnie1 · Sep 26, 2014

Size 5, on a hill, 50%

Mace and worker on the Iron. 6th defender could/would come from the city,

haphazard1 · Sep 26, 2014

Well.... Not sure I like the odds much, actually.

That longbow...CG1, on a hill, in a city, 50% city defense, fully fortified. 20% (CG1) + 25% (innate hill ability) + 25% (actual hill bonus) + 25% (innate city bonus) + 50% (city defense) + 25% (fortified) = 170%, or equivalent to 16.2 effective strength, plus a first strike.

That one unit could take out 3-4 knights, if we get even moderately unfortunate RNG. Of course we could also get ridiculously lucky and take it out with the first knight, or at least heavily damage it.

The mace would be effective strength 14 from hill bonus and city defense...at least 2 knights to take it out.

Spears...hill bonus, city defense, fortified, combat I, innate anti-mounted = 12.4 effective strength. Better allow for a couple knights each, at least.

Axe is easier, but still hill bonus, city defense, fortified, combat I = 10.5 effective strength. Figure a knight plus an elephant to deal with it.

That gives us something like 11 knights + 1 elephant, leaving 2 elephants. If the city whips another defender, especially a longbow or spear, the odds will be poor for us to take the city. If only that was not on a hill, I would feel much happier about the odds.

So...if we do not cap Augustus but instead wait a turn, what more could we bring to the fight? Of course another turn also gives time for Victoria to potentially whip another defender. :-(

haphazard1 · Sep 26, 2014

OK, looked at the save for more detail. One turn's delay would allow us to bring an additional 13 knights to attack Victoria's last city. So if we delay one turn the capture of the city would require truly astoundingly bad RNG to fail.

So can we risk trying without those reinforcements, to shave one turn off our finish date? Maybe some simulations need to be run...should not be too hard to put together in World Builder on one of the old test maps, just create the troops out of thin air. Hmmm....

Everything else looked good. 2 (or more) religions in every city but Rome (which goes back to Augustus), 5 holy cities owned by us and 2 razed, 73 temples total (counting our 2 settled prophets as 4 apiece) with none in Rome, at least one of each pair of civs dead or vassalized once Augustus capitulates and Victoria is eliminated, and of course domination as the victory condition.

Just have to take and raze that city...make certain not to keep it! (Or does it have 2 religions already, in which case we could keep it?)

Deckhand · Sep 26, 2014

haphazard1 · Sep 26, 2014

I am glad we are able to provide some amusement, Deckhand. :lol:

OK, ran about 10 simulations using a WB-altered set up from our first test save way back in 3700 BC.

I was over-concerned about the longbow -- it is not quite as bad as I thought. Even with the city whipping a second longbow, we never failed to take the city. It got close a couple times when we got very poor results from the first couple attacking knights, but as long as we do not get truly terrible RNG we should raze the city.

And we do need to remember to raze it, since it only has 1 religion. Remember to raze the city!

Also, one quick note -- we actually have 12 knights available -- the guy 2W1S can reach the city. One of the stacked knights NE of the city is wounded with only 1/2 strength, so really it is 11.5 knights and 3 elephants. But that was enough in all my sims, with at least 1 elephant to spare even in the very worst result.

So I vote we go for it.

Let the RNG determine our fate! :lol:

nocho · Sep 26, 2014

I'd also go for it. It's indeed 15 units, while the mace and the new unit she may whip won't have fortification bonuses.

Gift Rome back after vassaling AC and indeed raze Coventry, et voila!

SGOTM 20 - Misfit Gypsy Nuts

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Dancing Bear

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Procrastination at its finest

Dancing Bear

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