SGOTM 23 - Xteam

I did not get chop, mine, chop to work.
 
Orleans micro.
turn 61
move worker NE.
Orleans work cow and forest.

turn 62
worker chops.
Orleans work cow and forest.

turn 63
worker chops.
Orleans work cow and forest.

turn 64
worker chops.
Orleans work cow and riverside grassland.
Orleans starts Galley.

turn 65
Orleans work cow and fish.
Workers moves SS.

turn 66
Orleans whips galley.
Workers chops.
Orleans work cow and fish.

turn 67
Orleans starts chariot.
Orleans work cow and fish.
Worker chops.

turn 68
Orleans stats galley.
Orleans work cow and fish.
worker chops.

turn 69
Worker moves NE
Orleans work cow and fish.

turn 70
worker mines
Orleans whip chariot.

turn 71
worker mines
Orleans whip galley.
 
I was talking about the chop, chop then mine.
So, that timing would mean:
T61 Move to the Forest
T62 - 64 Chop the Forest
T65 Move to the 2nd Forest
T66 - 68 Chop the 2nd Forest
T69 Move to the Iron
T70 - 73 Mine the Iron

I'm struggling to see how that's better than:
T61 - 62 Mine the GH
T63 Move to the Forest
T64 - 66 Chop the Forest
T67 Move to the Iron
T68 - 71 Mine the Iron

T62 - 63 Cow + G For
T64 Cow + GH Mine
T64 Build Galley
T65 Cow + Fish
T65 Build Chariot
T66 Cow + Fish + GH Mine
T66 Build Galley and receive the Chop; Size 3 with 0 Food, 6 H in Galley, 3 H in Chariot
T67 Cow + Fish + GH Mine
T68 Whip Galley 1
T68 Cow + Fish; Size 2 with 12 Food, 68 H in Galley, 3 H in Chariot
T69 Build Galley 2
T69 Cow + Fish; Size 2 with 19 Food (growth in 1 turn), 21 overflow H, 3 H in Chariot
T70 Whip either the Galley or the Chariot, it doesn't matter which one, but let's say Galley 2
T70 Cow + Fish; Size 2 with 2 Food, 54 H in Galley 2, 3 H in Chariot
T71 Whip Chariot
T71 Fish; Size 1 with 9 Food, 33 H in Chariot with 7 overflow Hammers
T71 Iron just got Mined, but no one can work it yet
T72 All 3 build items have been completed; Size 1 with 14 F (growth in 2 turns), 11 overflow H, 1 Forest not Chopped
T73 Size 1 with 19 Food, 12 H in Granary (+1 Forest available)
T74 Size 2 with 2 Food (growth in 4 turns), 13 H in Granary (+1 For)
T74 Work Cow + Iron Mine?
T75 Work Fish + Iron Mine for Granary in 2 turns?
T78 Size 2 with 16 Food, Granary completed, 1 overflow H, Work Fish + Cow (growth in 2 turns and will get the maximum 12 Food stored in our Granary)
T80 Size 3 with 18 Food, Granary completed and full, 7 H

That's 3 turns where we could use the GH Mine and 0 turns where we could use the Iron Mine, even though the Iron Mine comes online 2 turns sooner relative to going Chop -> Chop -> Mine Iron.


EDIT: Comparison data using the steps from Message 662:
T66 Size 2 with 1 Food, 56 H in Galley
T67 Size 2 with 8 Food, Galley 1 done, 9 overflow H
T68 Size 2 with 15 Food, Galley 1 done, 12 H in Chariot
T69 Size 2 with 22 Food, Galley 1 done, 12 H in Chariot, 23 H in Galley 2
T70 Size 2 with 5 Food, Galley 1 done, 42 H in Chariot, 26 H in Galley 2
T71 Size 1 with 12 Food, Galley 1 done, Chariot done, 56 H in Galley 2
T72 All 3 build items have been completed; Size 1 with 17 F (growth in 1 turn), 22 overflow H, 0 Forests not Chopped
T73 Size 2 with 0 Food, 23 H in Granary (working Fish + Cow)
T74 Size 2 with 7 Food (growth in 3 turns), 26 H in Granary
T75 Size 2 with 14 Food, 29 H in Granary
T76 Size 2 with 21 Food, 32 H in Granary
T77 Size 3 with 4 food, 35 H in Granary
T78 Size 3 with 10 Food, 43 H in Granary, Switch Fish to GH Mine (Work Cow, Iron, and GH Mine, since 43 + 8 + 8 only equals 58)
T79 Size 3 with 12 Food, 54 H in Granary
T80 Size 3 with 18 Food, Granary completed and empty (but we will put 12 out of a max 13 Food in it over the next 2 turns), 2 overflow H


Comparison results:
A] Mining the GH -> Chop -> Mining the Iron = +1 Food (in the Granary) + 5 H
when compared to:
B] Chop -> Chop -> Mining the Iron
Can we do better with Chop -> Mining the Iron -> Chop?




If we're not completing the Granary until Turn 79 or so, then the second Chop shouldn't need to arrive right away. Otherwise, the second Chop arrives on T75, meaning being able to 1-pop-whip the Granary on Turn 76.


It just occurred to me that chop, mine, chop might be even better.
It might be.

I'm failing to see how Chop -> Chop -> Mine Iron beats out Mine GH -> Chop -> Mine Iron.

Note that it's times like this where we see how it's generally preferable not to move key units on the last turn of a turnset, as we could have saved a turn on getting the Iron Mine online for such a scenario (a Chop -> Mine Iron scenario), which may have made the difference in getting the Hammers needed, if you feel that you can't make this scenario work.

It's very tempting to, say, move an exploring Unit or finish off a Worker's action, only to later regret having made the move once the following turns get planned out.
 
I did not get chop, mine, chop to work.
Have you tried the following?
T61 Move to Forest
T62-63 Chop then STOP
T64 Move to Iron
T65-68 Mine the Iron
T69 Move to Forest
T70 Finish the Chop

Delay whipping for as long as possible, even it just means working a 1 F + 2 H + 1 C Unimproved Iron...

Maybe T68 Whip Galley 1, T69 Whip Chariot Whip, T71 Whip Galley 2?

Or, if Galley 1 can't be Whipped that soon, then T67 Whip Chariot 1, T68 Overflow the Hammers into Galley 1, T69 Whip Galley 1, T70 Capture the Chop into Galley 2, T71 Whip Galley 2

See if we get enough Hammers from just the 1 Chop. I'm not sure that we'd get to work the Iron much, but maybe it could make sense to work it instead of the Fish if doing so helps us to get the needed Hammers.

Still, even if we do work the Iron at the expense of the Fish, I'm not certain that doing so is better than simply improving the GH Mine and working the GH Mine instead of a G Riv square or instead of a GH Riv Iron (Unmined) square, as we're needing to whip right around the time of getting that Iron Mined.
 
I need to try that.
 
No chopping before iron does not get us enough hammers to whip early enough.
 
It seems like mine, chop, iron is the way to go.
 
PPP
Diplo Policy
If an AI asks us to convert to Christianity, say no.
If an AI asks for a tech, more often then not I will give the tech. Not giving anything to Churchill.
If an AI asks us to stop trading with another AI, say no.
If an AI asks for a Resource, pause play and check with the team, realising that a "yes" will prevent 10 turns of war,
but doesn't really anger other AIs, so it's free positive Diplo if we don't want to go to war with that AI soon. If we do not have excess resources, it cannot happen.

Multiple turn items
EDIT: Ask Alex to attack Berlin every turn
Spoiler:

Send Warrior 1 NW to the G Riv For that is 1 W of the G Sheep and leave him there to avoid luring Frederick's War Party, now that his Settler Party has already created his City 3. Obviously, retreat Warrior 1 if he is under threat of being attacked

Stopping Points
Frederick and Churchill meet each other ? Is this still relevant?
Frederick threatens our City
We meet a new AI
We want to declare war on an AI
Something unexpected happens


Turn 60, 1600 BC

Move forest NNE of XO Cognac to XO Cognac (not to forget when we chop it.)
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, Copper, and G For

Science Rate 0%

Double-checking: Paris at Size 5 earns +9 Food, Horseback Riding won't get completed yet


Turn 61, 1560 BC

Paris switches G For to Sci
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, Copper, and 2 Sci

On the F4 ACTIVE screen, cancel Open Borders with Stalin

Orleans automatically works Cow and G For

Worker 1 Roads the G Copper Mine
Worker 2 completes the Chop at 2 W of Lyons (1 SE of the Wheat)
Worker 3 keeps Mining the GH that is 1 S of Orleans

Double-checking: Great Scientist in 6 turns and Paris will only make 12 + 7 Hammers in its Barracks

Scout moves to XO Cognac


Turn 62, 1520 BC

Espionage Rate 100%
On the Ctrl + e screen, Confirm that Churchill has a Weight of 1 and all other AIs have a Weight of 0
Spoiler:


Lyons completes Work Boat -> builds Chariot

Paris 2-pop whips Barracks and will complete it this turn
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur and 1 Sci

XO Cognac switches G For -> G Copper Mine
XO Cognac works: Fish, Cow, Horse, and Copper

Orleans keeps working: Cow and G For (for 2 more turns, to grow to Size 3 one turn sooner)

Lyons nets its Fish and should automatically work it

Worker 2 moves into Lyons (NE G Riv > SE Lyons)

Double-checking: Great Scientist in 9 turns, XO Cognac is putting +20 Hammers into the Lighthouse, Orleans makes +4 Hammers in its Work Boat, and Lyons grows in 2 turns



Turn 63, 1480 BC

Paris completes Barracks -> builds Axeman

XO Cognac completes Lighthouse -> Galley 1

(Espionage Rate still at 100%)

Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, and 2 Sci

Worker 1 moves to the G For that is 3 N of XO Cognac (1 N of the Horse)
Worker 2 moves 1 E GH For (1 E of Lyons)
Worker 3 moves 1 NE G Riv For (1 E of Orleans)

Double-checking: Paris puts 35 Hammers into Axeman 1 and XO Cognac is putting 15 Hammers into a Galley


Turn 64, 1440 BC

Paris completes Axeman 1 -> builds Spy

Orleans completes Work Boat -> Galley

XO Cognac 2-pop whips Galley 1

Paris gets to work copper.
XO Cognac works: Fish, Cow, and Horse
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, Copper, and 1 Sci

Orleans switches G For -> GH Mine
Orleans works: Cow and GH Mine

Lyons automatically works: Fish and Fur

Worker 1 Chops the G For that is 3 N of XO Cognac (1 N of the Horse)
Worker 2 Chops the GH For that is 1 E of Lyons
Worker 3 Chops the G Riv For that is 1 E of Orleans

Orleans Work Boat heads to Orleans' Fish

Double-checking: Paris is putting 7 Hammers into a Spy, XO Cognac has whipped its Galley, Lyons is making +5 F and +2 H in a Chariot

Axeman 1 heads north-east


Turn 65, 1400 BC

XO Cognac completes Galley -> builds The Great Lighthouse.

XO Cognac steals the Copper
XO Cognac works: Fish, Cow, Copper, and Horse

Paris 2-pop whips Spy.
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, and 1 Sci

Orleans' Fish gets netted
Orleans works: Fish and Cow
Orleans starts Chariot

Worker 2 Chops and then STOPS Chopping the GH For at 1 E of Lyons (so that we won't lose a Hammer from overflowing too many Hammers from the Chariot)

Double-checking: Paris has whipped its Spy, XO Cognac is putting 41 Hammers into The Great Lighthouse, Orleans is making +7 Food, and Worker 2 won't finish the Chop next turn

Load Scout on Galley 1.
Galley 1 moves toward Fish that is 2 SW of London (Galley 1 must arrive on that Fish on Turn 68)


Turn 66, 1360 BC

Paris completes Spy -> builds Axeman 2

XO Cognac switches to building Galley 2
XO Cognac switches Copper -> G For (so that the Galley stays as a 2-pop-whipping action)
XO Cognac works: Fish, Cow, Horse, and G For

Paris switches Sci -> Copper
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, and Copper

Orleans continues to build Galley 3

Orleans works: Fish, Cow, and GH Mine

(Lyons works: Fish and Fur)

Espionage Rate 0%
Science Rate should be set high enough to learn Horseback Riding this turn

Worker 1 finishes its Chop into XO Cognac's Galley 2
Worker 2 Roads the GH For that is 1 E of Lyons (we can finish the Chop after our Road has been completed)
Worker 3 finishes its Chop into Orleans' Galley 3

Double-checking: Paris is making +9 Food and +37 Hammers in Axeman 2, XO Cognac is making +17 Hammers in Galley 2, Orleans' Chop is going into a Galley, Lyons has 8 + 2 Hammers going into its Chariot, and Horseback Riding will be learned this turn

Spy moves NW G Riv For (1 NW of Paris)


Turn 67, 1320 BC

Tech Horseback Riding -> Currency (or Metal Casting if Churchill is learning Currency)

Paris completes Axeman 2 -> Horse Archer

Science Rate 0%

XO Cognac 2-pop-whips Galley 2
XO Cognac works: Fish, Cow, and Horse

Paris switches G For -> Sci
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, Copper, and 1 Sci

Lyons 1-pop-whips Chariot 1
Lyons works: Fish

Worker 1 Moves to the G For that is 1 NW of XO Cognac (1 SW of the Horse)

Spy moves NW G Riv (2 NW of Paris)

Worker 3 plans to move to iron but it can be done later.
 
The PPP plays out fine. Good luck!


Frederick and Churchill meet each other ? Is this still relevant?
If we're only going to play roughly 7 turns at a time, not really, as it takes 8 turns for the Shared State Religion positive Diplo bonus to kick in and Churchill has most of our techs already, so we'd still have time after this session to consider acting.

When it comes time to declaring war on Churchill, if Churchill doesn't have a Horse Resource connected, and if Churchill knows Frederick but doesn't know any AIs whom he could bribe against us, we can probably do:
1. Spy Mission
2. If the Spy is successful, bribe Churchill against Frederick for Horseback Riding
3. Declare war on Churchill
4. Invade London
5. After the war, we'd have Churchill as a war ally against Frederick


During the runthrough of the PPP, I had both Churchill and Joao ask us to convert to Christianity on the same turn as each other. For the fun of it, I agreed to Churchill's request and then saw Joao's request, so I agreed again and got the +1 "You accepted our state religion" positive Diplo bonus with both of them. Note that accepting to switch to a State Religion does not lock us into 10 turns of Peace.

Unfortunately, such a possibility is incredibly unlikely to happen in the real game and I don't know if there is even a way to know that a second AI would ask us the same question, so I suppose that we'll just have to hope that neither of them asks us in the real game so that we won't get a -1 Diplo hit with whomever we refuse to convert.


80% Research on Turn 66 seems to work out all right, with:
13.60 base Flasks in Paris (only 1.6 Flask not benefitting from the Library)
0.6 + 0.8 = 1.4 -> 0.4 Flasks lost
0.4 + 0.4 + 0.2 = 1.0 -> 0 Gold lost
 
turn 60
IBT:
Joao and Hatshepsut. We do not have anything to trade right now so I continue.
Joao founded Oporto on top of iron.

turn 61

turn 62

turn 63
Joao asks us to convert to christianity. I decline.

turn 64
Alexander wants to trade us sheep. We do not really feel like giving away fur, horse or copper.
I missed working the mine in Orleans.

turn 66
England is learning meditation.
Hatshepsut has mathematics.

Spoiler :
Here is your Session Turn Log from 1600 BC to 1320 BC:


Turn 64, 1440 BC: The borders of Orleans have expanded!

Turn 65, 1400 BC: Paris has grown to size 6.
Turn 65, 1400 BC: Paris has become unhappy.
Turn 65, 1400 BC: Paris can hurry Spy for 2⇴ with 34ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 22 turns.
Turn 65, 1400 BC: Deal Canceled: Open Borders to Stalin for Open Borders

Turn 66, 1360 BC: Paris has become happy.
Turn 66, 1360 BC: XO Cognac will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 66, 1360 BC: Orleans has grown to size 3.
Turn 66, 1360 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 10 ℤ for XO Cognac.
Turn 66, 1360 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 20 ℤ for Orleans.
Turn 66, 1360 BC: Paris will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 66, 1360 BC: XO Cognac will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 66, 1360 BC: You have discovered Horseback Riding!
Turn 66, 1360 BC: Hatshepsut has founded Memphis in a distant land.

Turn 67, 1320 BC: Paris has grown to size 5.
Turn 67, 1320 BC: XO Cognac has grown to size 5.
Turn 67, 1320 BC: XO Cognac can hurry Galley for 2⇴ with 35ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 20 turns.
Turn 67, 1320 BC: Orleans can hurry Galley for 1⇴ with 19ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.


http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG023_BC1320_01.CivBeyondSwordSave
 
Expect for me missing the micro in Orleans on turn 64 it is going well.

We have not seen any more Germans. England do not seem to have any metal so far. Let us hope we can attack London with only 2 archers defending.
 
Nice work, Folket!


It's interesting how the game got paused with us talking to Alex, such that when I load the game, I'm immediately already talking with Alex.

Stalin has 6 Cities while Hatty has 3 Cities.

The 3 Cities belonging to Hatty is concerning, as we won't be able to gift her another City once she settles her 4th City.

On the positive side, if we haven't seen Frederick's Units, perhaps our Worker won't get interrupted while Mining the Iron. But, I would expect our Axemen to be prepared to defend him.

So, I'd suggest sending our Axemen 1 E GH Mine (1 S of Orleans) > 1 NE G Riv (1 E of Orleans). That way, they can move to defend our Worker, if needed. But, before moving our Axemen there, we'll probably want to have them move into Orleans on any turn where Orleans whips a Unit... it's possible that even a Galley will count as a City Defender, so any turn on which we have a City Defender is a good turn on which to have multiple Units defending.

We also want to make sure that we are able to fill all of our Galleys with our Units on Turn 72, without, say, finding that we're only putting 1 Unit on one of our Galleys.


EP Values:
Stalin 17 / 0
Hatshepsut 0 / 0
Frederick 156 / 0
Joao 41 / 0
Churchill 329 / 363
Alex 8 / 0

We seem to have a few less EPs in the real game than I thought that we had in the test game (or, maybe I'm just mis-remembering). It doesn't hurt to overspend--if we've spent less than the total amount of EPs that Churchill has earned, our Spy's chances of passively dying each turn go up, and Churchill likely spent some EPs on Stalin. So, we may want to consider another turn at 100% Espionage.


We have 12 / 135 of the world's population points.


We'll also want to double-check the new Orleans micro to make sure that we will be on track for whipping all 3 build items.


Churchill's Worker must be running out of useful things to be doing, with his Worker Roading a G For that is 3 W of London. Or, perhaps that's where Churchill has his second City. From the Cultural Border expansion, it looks as though his second City might be to the west of London; we should double-check out the Cultural Borders look in the test game.


Churchill's Galley is inside of London... has it been moving in and out of London or staying inside of London?


It's certainly disappointing to see Churchill going up the Religious tech path.


Ugh, Joao settled in a bad location. I'd have preferred the 1 S location (on the P Cow) that he had chosen in the most recent test game, as then the City would have at least been able to work a Fish Resource. 1 Plains Cow square and a couple of P Riv Farms makes for a pretty horrible City.

Ugh, we also had to refuse Joao in terms of switching into Christianity. Oh well, he'll forget about our refusal eventually.


Alex still only has 1 City, and is terribly technologically backward, so he's probably going to have to die at some point. At least we will have started on a Road toward him.


Next turn, after Galley 1 moves 1 NE, our Scout is set to unload in England. Then, after our Galley 1 moves 1 SE, our Spy is set to load into Galley 1, allowing for the Spy to Unload and then Fortify in London on Turn 69.


Alex has a Sheep available for trade, if we ever get another one of our Resources hooked up. I wouldn't trade him Copper even after getting our Iron hooked up (no Phalanx, please), and our Workers are busy, so I suppose that we'll just have to continue to ignore that Resource-trading opportunity for a while.


Churchill still only knows Stalin, and Stalin doesn't know Mysticism, so Churchill won't trade us Mysticism. I'd prefer not to get Mysticism from Churchill if it means Stalin avoiding Mysticism (and thus the Feudalism tech path) for a long time.

Fortunately, Churchill is still Pleased toward us. However, if Churchill doesn't meet Frederick, we won't be able to bribe Churchill against Frederick.


I certainly wouldn't complain if we only found 2 Archers in London when we were ready to attack, but a lot can change in 6 turns. But, the situation does look promising.


Using the formula: Sabotage Production EP Cost / Support City Revolt EP Cost * 650 / 6, we see that London has 51 Hammers in a build item. Since London is at Size 3, it's probably a Settler.

Meanwhile, Joao's City 2, Opporto, has 42 Hammers in a build item. That amount sounds rather high, considering that AIs' Units are relatively low in cost, but maybe he's building a cheap-for-him Granary. It's not likely a Settler or a Worker with that many Hammers (unless we can see where a Forest might have been Chopped) with the City already being at Size 2.

Berlin and Lisbon just completed build items.


EDIT: Here are a couple of pictures:
Spoiler :
2aac0678b5.jpg


5cfbce4d80.jpg


Based on Churchill's Cultural Borders, it looks as though his City 2 got settled 1 NW of where his Worker is located (NW + 3 W of London).


An AI requires this many Hammers for various build items:
Moai Statues = 225 Hammers (250 for us)
Settler = 97 Hammers (100 for us)
Worker = 52 Hammers (60 for us)
Barracks = 45 Hammers (50 for us)
Axeman = 30 Hammers (35 for us)
Archer = 22 Hammers (25 for us)
 
Good turns, Folket. Hope you're continuing to feel better and can finish what you've started, but I can play tomorrow if you don't want to.

Looking at Alex's culture, I can't figure out exactly where Athens must be located. Seems to me he should have culture on the coastal tile NW of the gems. Having those gems sooner rather than later would be nice.

Given London's defenders, do we need a HA out of Lyon (where there is no barracks)? A granary and galley there would be nice. Or, if we do go with the HA, could we send the chariot out to explore eastward?
 
I would feel much better with some HAs. The current build has a lot of chariots that hardly do anything.
 
Well, I can continue to play tomorrow. I think playing until London is captured would be a good turnset for me.

What should the next checkpoint be? Shall I just play until turn 73 tomorrow and then let the team look at our chances of capturing London?

Do we really need more espionage on Churchill? We have enough for our city revolt. I did spend one less turn with espionage since we already had enough.
 
Shall I just play
Not without a PPP, please.


until turn 73 tomorrow
It depends upon how much detail you plan to put into the PPP. If you're going to plan in advance and document how each of our Military Units will get on their respective Galleys, you could play that far. If you don't want to go into that level of detail, then I'd suggest playing up until Turn 70, so that we will still have time to adjust the Unit logistics.

Units will need to board Galleys on Turn 72, so they must be one square away from a suitable Galley on Turn 71 (which could mean being one square away from Orleans for Units that will get on an Orleans-built Galley), meaning that Turn 71 is the critical turn to "get right" in terms of our Units' logistics.


It's also a bit hard to totally plan out the logistics as we're not totally certain what will happen when a Worker moves next to Germany's Cultural Borders--will Frederick ignore a Worker or will he hunt it down? If Frederick would ignore it, it might be better not to guard the Worker directly with an Axeman and perhaps just plan to have an Axeman at 1 E of Orleans in case of trouble.

But, on turns where we whip a Unit in Orleans, we probably also want to pile all of our nearby Units into Orleans, to make the City Defender pile appear to be relatively strong for any turn where a Unit (even a Galley) will exist in Orleans. So, it might just simply be best to pile both Axemen into Orleans on any turn where Orleans whips a Unit.

With so much whipping, that probably means nearly every turn.

Remember: Units on board of a Galley do not count as City Defenders, even if that Galley is inside of a City. So, we'd probably want to have our stack of Units inside of Orleans on Turn 72 and have our Units board our Galleys on Turn 72, then have our Galleys move into position 2 SE of London on Turn 72. That's a lot of logistics to "get right" in just 1 more turnset.


No, there's no room for a Chariot to go exploring. It's all hands on deck (literally, since we're putting the Units on the decks of Galleys :p) if we want to stand a chance at capturing London! We'll be Chopping another Forest for Lyons to get the remaining Hammers that it will need for its Granary, so don't worry about Lyons not getting a Granary.

What good is further exploration going to do us if doing so risks costing us a loss in our first major battle?


Horse Archers are desperately needed, as they ignore Churchill's potential 2 First Strikes per Archer.

First Strikes can be incredibly deadly. If you haven't taken the time to look into combat odds, now is the time.

The second-best City Defender in London needs only 4 hits to kill our Chariot, and that's even with London's 60% Cultural Defences being dropped down to 0%. If that Archer gets in 2 First Strikes, that fact means that our Chariot will be more than half dead before our Chariot even gets a chance to attack! To win, our Chariot would then need to win 8 rounds of combat before the Archer won 2 rounds of combat.
Spoiler :
9b55de276e.jpg


Now, the above image should not lead to the conclusion that Chariots will be useless in the attack. Far from it. Instead, we need to first damage the Archers before our Axemen and then Chariots will have better odds of winning the fights.


What's also interesting is that the Retreat ability (Can Withdraw from Combat) doesn't seem to work from boats! That fact is rather unfortunate, but I don't see a way to get around it, since, if we declare war and land our Units ashore, Churchill will almost certainly create another City Defender, which would mean even more losses on our side in the battle, and we also wouldn't know if our Spy was going to be successful at its Support City Revolt Mission before we attacked. In other words, the Flanking I Promotion will be useless to our Horse Archer and thus our Paris-built Horse Archer is going to take the Combat I Promotion.

Which order we attack will matter for our Horse Archers, given how one Horse Archer can get the Combat I Promotion, and we'll want to use that Horse Archer at the right time, depending upon whether that Promotion can change the number of hits needed to beat the Archer or the number of hits needed for the Archer to beat us.

For example, it takes these many hits for various situations of having our Horse Archer fight against the Archers in London:
60% Cultural Defences, 1st defender, Combat I Promotion: 7 hits for us to win, 5 hits for the Archer to win
60% Cultural Defences, 1st defender, no Promotion: 7 hits for us to win, 4 hits for the Archer to win
60% Cultural Defences, 2nd defender, Combat I Promotion: 6 hits for us to win, 5 hits for the Archer to win
60% Cultural Defences, 2nd defender, no Promotion: 7 hits for us to win, 5 hits for the Archer to win

0% Cultural Defences, 1st defender, Combat I Promotion: 6 hits for us to win, 5 hits for the Archer to win
0% Cultural Defences, 1st defender, no Promotion: 6 hits for us to win, 5 hits for the Archer to win
0% Cultural Defences, 2nd defender, Combat I Promotion: 6 hits for us to win, 5 hits for the Archer to win
0% Cultural Defences, 2nd defender, no Promotion: 6 hits for us to win, 5 hits for the Archer to win

From the above numbers, we can see that if our Spy is successful, it will make our Unpromoted Horse Archers just as successful as our Combat I Horse Archer in the initial attack against each Archer, allowing us to save the Combat I Horse Archer to attack a wounded Archer for better odds.

But, if our Spy fails, and we decided to proceed with the attack anyway, our Combat I Horse Archer would have better odds than our Unpromoted Horse Archers, so we would lead with our Combat I Horse Archer if our Spy failed and if we still decided to attack.


Do we really need more espionage on Churchill? We have enough for our city revolt. I did spend one less turn with espionage since we already had enough.
Perhaps "enough" to perform the Mission, but likely not "enough" to put the odds of our Spy staying alive each turn in our favour.

At a bare minimum, we need to have spent more than the total EPs that Churchill has spent, if we want to give our Spy reasonable odds of surviving 4 turns of being stationary in London. Being over that number puts us on the right side of the 50% break point that is prevalent all over Civ 4. The odds of our Spy passively dying each turn that it spends in English territory go up if Churchill has spent more EPs (on any player) than we have spent (on any player), and vice versa.

We know that Churchill was putting a decent amount of his Commerce into EPs. He will have spent a decent amount of EPs on Stalin. Just how many is hard to tell--I've been trying to track EP Values in the thread, but no one else has done so, so the exact amount required is uncertain, and it's far better to make sure that we have spent more EPs than Churchill than to risk underspending and then having our Spy automatically passively die before even having a chance to execute the Espionage Mission.

More EPs earned (against any AI) makes Espionage Missions cheaper, even for Tech Theft Missions against Hatty by spending EPs on Churchill, so the EPs won't be wasted.


What could Churchill be building in London right now? Churchill has 51 Hammers in a build item. He has already build a Barracks and a Granary, so that leaves a Lighthouse (54 Hammers), a Library (79 Hammers), a Worker (52 Hammers), or a Settler (97 Hammers). A Lighthouse or a Library is unlikely given that London is at Size 3.
Spoiler :
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If we have more info on London's City Sizes (has it been growing and whipping? has it stayed at Size 3 this whole past turnset?), it would be easier to predict what he's building. It would also help if we had London's Espionage screen (Ctrl + e) values from a couple of turns, say, Turn 62 and Turn 64, for Sabotage Production and Support City Revolt, to see if he's been building the same build item all along or if he's been building multiple build items.

On Turn 60, Churchill hadn't started on his next build item and London was at Size 3.

On Turn 48, 2080 BC, we saw from the Top 5 Cities that London was at Size 5.

On Turn 38, 2480 BC, we saw from the Top 5 Cities that London was at Size 4.


What we do know is that Churchill makes a decent amount of Food + Hammers per turn with some form of Food source (or maybe two of them), a G Stone Quarry, and a settled Great Prophet.

Assuming two 6-Food squares, that would be:
City Centre = 2 F + 1 H
6-Food square = 6 F
6-Food square = 6 F
G Stone Quarry = 2 F + 3 H
Great Prophet = 2 H
3 citizens = -6 F
Total = 16 Hammers per turn, giving him 51 + 16 + 16 + 16 = 99 Hammers after 3 turns, aka 1 Settler (if he's building a Settler instead of a Worker) plus 99 - 97 = 2 Hammers of overflow.

Of course, if there's a 5-Food square in there, he would make 15 Hammers per turn, giving him 51 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 111 Hammers after 4 turns, aka 1 Settler (if he's building a Settler) plus 111 - 97 = 14 Hammers of overflow.

He might also 1-pop-whip a Settler, giving him significant overflow Hammers, too.


I would suggest that when we get to Turn 73, we don't perform the Espionage Mission until we've had a chance to do some more testing. If, for example, there are 3 or 4 Archer City Defenders, we'd want to play out some test games to see what our odds of success would be, and if our odds would be poor, especially if Churchill has a Settler in London at the time, we'd probably need to wait on our attack until he sent out his Settler Party.

With any luck, Churchill will build something else after the Settler (a Lighthouse?). Realistically, he'll build Settler -> Archer -> Archer, and then we hope that with 4 Archers, he'll send out a Settler Party, allowing us to attack when there are only 2 Archers defending London. With any luck, we'll be able to strike before the likely Archer that comes after a Settler gets built.


If we start documenting the following values every turn, we might be able to consider landing troops on Turn 73 and attacking from land on Turn 74, depending upon the situation and therefore based on what Churchill may already be building. We'd want to track:
i. London's Sabotage Production value (Ctrl + e screen)
ii. London's Support City Revolt value (Ctrl + e screen)
iii. London's City Size
iv. Whatever build items London has completed when its Sabotage Production value is missing

Note that if we landed before attacking, we would NOT perform the Support City Revolt Mission on Turn 73, as that Mission only lasts for the current turn. So, such a possibility is also another reason not to perform the Support City Revolt Mission on Turn 73 until we've had a chance to assess the situation.
 
I do not see the granary in the 63 save. It seems to have been at size 3 turn 63, 65 and 67.

But sabotage production was at around 270 every turn. Probably he finished something on turn 65 and is now building a settler or a worker.
 
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