SGOTM 23 - Xteam

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG023_BC1080_03.CivBeyondSwordSave
Spoiler :

Turn 73, 1080 BC: Deal Canceled: Deer to Churchill for Fish
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Deal Canceled: Open Borders to Churchill for Open Borders
Turn 73, 1080 BC: You have declared war on Churchill!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill refuses to talk.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 1 (Paris) (6.60) vs Churchill's Archer (9.90)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 9.9%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +60%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (City Defense: +95%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Amphibious Attack: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 1 (Paris) is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 1 (Paris) is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 1 (Paris) is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (52/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (36/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 1 (Paris) is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (20/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (4/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 1 (Paris) is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer has defeated Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 1 (Paris)!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Your Horse Archer 1 (Paris) has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 2 (Lyons) (6.00) vs Churchill's Archer (9.15)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 9.6%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +60%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Amphibious Attack: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 2 (Lyons) is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 2 (Lyons) is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 16 (52/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 2 (Lyons) is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 2 (Lyons) is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 2 (Lyons) is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer has defeated Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 2 (Lyons)!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Your Horse Archer 2 (Lyons) has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 3 (XO Cognac) (6.00) vs Churchill's Archer (4.75)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 85.9%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +60%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Amphibious Attack: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 18 (34/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 3 (XO Cognac) is hit for 21 (79/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 18 (16/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 18 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Horse Archer 3 (XO Cognac) has defeated Churchill's Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Your Horse Archer 3 (XO Cognac) has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Chariot 1 (Lyons) (4.00) vs Churchill's Archer (0.39)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 100.0%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +60%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (City Defense: +95%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Amphibious Attack: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Chariot 1 (Lyons) is hit for 22 (78/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Chariot 1 (Lyons) is hit for 22 (56/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Churchill's Archer is hit for 17 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Napoleon REAL's Chariot 1 (Lyons) has defeated Churchill's Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Your Chariot 1 (Lyons) has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: You have captured London!!!
 
It seems like we razed all buildings in London. Which is too bad.
 
How is the damage for each round of combat calculated? I see that our chariot got hit for 22 HP against a 0.39 strength archer. It is less then a full strength archer but much more then a unit that has 0.39 strength when healed.
 
We still have a chariot available for axe bashing which is nice :thumbsup:.
 
Excellent work, Folket!

How is the damage for each round of combat calculated? I see that our chariot got hit for 22 HP against a 0.39 strength archer. It is less then a full strength archer but much more then a unit that has 0.39 strength when healed.
I remember reading in one of the patches (for Warlords, perhaps, or at least for BtS) where the combat damage got changed from a calculation based on the Unit's current Strength to a calculation based on the average of a Unit's current Strength and a Unit's full Strength. Presumably, the defensive (or offensive) bonuses are still calculated in for both cases.


One item that I'd like to push for is trying to stay at a 0% Gold Rate as much as possible. Since we want to steal Mathematics and since we don't yet have our Academy, that would mean a 100% Espionage Slider for at least the next several turns, if not even longer, so as to also be able to steal Code of Laws reasonably soon, followed by a 100% Science Slider sometime after we have our Academy in place.

With Churchill having gone for Metal Casting, and with us having a stash of EPs against Churchill, we can also plan to steal Metal Casting from him if we don't end up wanting to invest the Hammers into getting him Friendly toward us in the short term.


For Lyons, we still need to figure out the ideal turn for 1-pop-whipping our Granary. To do so, we'd either sit down and do the math or else play a few test game runs up until a couple of turns after growing, check to see how much Food and Hammers the City has, and then pick the best result, possibly even using Avoid Growth for a turn if doing so works out.


For Orleans, it's likely better to grow to Size 3 and then slow-build our Granary to completion, since that City has several "power squares" to work which are already improved.


Germany's Axeman is a bit concerning, as it may mean that Frederick will settle a City to the east of Orleans soon, and then after that, he may feel threatened enough by our nearby Cultural Borders to send War Parties our way, as we saw happen repeatedly in the test game.


What we can do is whip a Horse Archer in Paris now (on Turn 73), then overflow into a Chariot on Turn 74, which could get completed if we steal the Copper on Turn 74, or optionally completed on Turn 75 if Germany's Axeman doesn't come at Orleans. Presumably, the plan is to 2-pop-whip the Spy in XO Cognac on Turn 74 to overflow into The Great Lighthouse on Turn 75.


Along with that new Horse Archer from Paris, it may make sense to send all of our Galley-based troops at York. I haven't looked at the saved game yet, but if Churchill didn't have Units near London, we could sail our Galley into London and load the Unit that captured London onto our Galley on our way west with our Galleys.

Also, said without looking at the real game yet, if we can have our Scout move to York's big fat cross on the turn before we can unload our troops at York, we might draw out a City Defender, and even if it defeats our Scout with full Health, it would lose its Fortification bonus when returning to York.


Don't worry about the missing Buildings in London, as you earned us +1 (or +2?) population points that didn't get whipped away by Churchill.
 
Folket, do you remember what was defending York and what its level of cultural defense was?

London is a significantly better city if York is ours. Do we want to consider an amphibious assault on York on T75?

In addition to the possibility of sacrificing our scout to draw out a city defender, moving our wounded chariot onto the horses might do the trick and could be done next turn.

The English worker is valuable to us. Thinking we should prepare the option to capture him from a galley next turn, if he continues to chop.

Whipping a granary in Lyon in two turns when it has a population of 11 looks right.
 
I'm not quite sure that we'd be able to capture a Worker next turn, unless it were to run directly 1 N GH For and stay along the coastline. I'm not convinced that it's worth chasing after that Worker relative to trying to throw everything that we've got at capturing York. On the plus side, we stopped that Worker Mid-Chop, and I'm pretty sure that AIs won't Chop Forests which aren't in their Cultural Borders, so that Forest should be ours.

We know that York has a Protective Archer (with a 25% Fortification bonus) and an Axeman, neither of which have a Promotion. Unfortunately, York is built on a GH square, which makes the defenders a bit tougher.

A Chariot built in York could attack London on the following turn. Since we don't have good defenders against a Chariot (a wounded Horse Archer, a Chariot-vulnerable Axeman, or a Chariot without a Promotion aren't the best of candidates), we might consider unloading our Horse Archer inside of London this turn, then next turn Promoting our Horse Archer to Combat I and Pillaging Churchill's Horse Resource. Of course, doing so would "threaten" Churchill's City and make him more likely to build a Unit--that said, with him being at war, he may want to build a Unit anyway.

Alternatively, we could leave the Horse Archer aboard our Galley so that it can heal while sailing if we're going for a Turn 75 amphibious assault, or it could simply land on Turn 74 for a Turn 75 land assault (a third option being healing while being on the Galley and landing on Turn 75 for a Turn 76 land assault).

York has 38 Hammers in a build item.
EDIT: Note that York already has a Granary and a Lighthouse.

Here are some build item Hammer totals:
Moai Statues = 225 Hammers (250 for us)
Settler = 97 Hammers (100 for us)
Library = 79 Hammers (90 for us)
Lighthouse = 54 Hammers (60 for us)
Worker = 52 Hammers (60 for us)
Barracks = 45 Hammers (50 for us)
Walls = 44 Hammers (50 for us)
Swordsman = 35 Hammers (40 for us)
Axeman = 30 Hammers (35 for us)
Chariot = 26 Hammers (30 for us)
Archer = 22 Hammers (25 for us)


We should probably also trade for Alex's Sheep using the Deer that we had previously been trading to Churchill. We could trade Churchill a different Resource later, either one that we've Roaded or perhaps trading a Resource of his back to him.
Spoiler :
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Here's a picture of the overall situation:
Spoiler :
abd5651226.jpg


So, we have some options... for example, we could unload our Chariot 1 S Grassland (1 E of the G Cow) on Turn 73. If Frederick comes after Orleans, our Chariot would be available to deal with the Axeman. If the Axeman stays in place on the Forest, we could instead reboard a Galley on Turn 74 before the Galleys move, boarding a Galley at the same time that our Paris-whipped Horse Archer and our Scout could board Galleys.

Doing so means at best a Turn 75 amphibious attack or a Turn 76 land attack with that Chariot.

Alternatively, we don't put the Chariot ashore and we leave open the option of a land attack on Turn 75 but with the Paris Horse Archer attacking amphibiously.

Landing our Units on Turn 74 on the G For Road that is 1 SE of York gives most of our Units a chance to avoid the amphibious penalty, but doing so could encourage Churchill to build a Unit due to York being threatened.

I'm not sure that he wouldn't build a Unit anyway, what with us being at war with him, so it might just be wise to plan for landing our troops on Turn 74, in which case our wounded Horse Archer wouldn't Pillage Churchill's Horse Resource, so that it could join the Turn 75 attack.

We also probably wouldn't need to load the Chariot that is London onto a Galley, as it could move via land to the G For Road that is 1 SE of York within the span of 1 turn.


Or, we plan for landing our troops on Turn 75 (including the Paris Horse Archer) for a Turn 76 attack. Doing so gives our existing Horse Archer a turn to heal a little bit and gives us these Units which can attack from land:
2 Combat I Horse Archers (1 a bit wounded)
3 Axemen with 1 Promo
1 Full-health Chariot (unless we use it against Frederick--although a Paris-built Chariot could also be used defensively against Frederick)
1 wounded Chariot (unless we use it as bait as Cactus Pete has suggested)

If we're going with the "bait" idea, I'd suggest putting the Chariot in a spot where Churchill's Unit wouldn't threaten London by killing our wounded Chariot. I.e. We could move the Chariot to the G Riv For that is NE + E of York, as there is no Road on that square. Baiting a Unit to kill our Chariot on the Horse Resource would mean that London would be threatened, and a BtS AI has a nasty habit of whipping a Unit (likely a fresh Archer) on the turn of recapturing its City.


Once we decide upon which plan to go for, then we can plan out the logistics.

The options that I see are:
A] Turn 75 land-based attack with 3 Axes, 2 Chariots (1 wounded), and 1 wounded Horse Archer and 1 Horse Archer attacking amphibiously
B] Turn 75 amphibious attack with all of the above Units
C] Turn 76 land-based attack with all of the above Units

Only for options B] and C] would a bait Chariot really make sense, since in option A], a bait Chariot would be ignored due to the presence of other Units being nearby that threatened the City.

I'm not convinced that option B] is the way to go, as Churchill may simply spam Units while being at war, regardless of whether his City gets threatened.

I'm currently leaning toward option C], since our Horse Archers are likely once again going to play the crucial role in determining how well our attack will go, and that option gives us 2 Horse Archers (although one will be wounded) who are able to attack from land.


Churchill can't be building a Chariot currently. Theoretically, he could switch to a Chariot and have one built at the start of our Turn 74, but he'd probably already have to have started building it and switched away from building it, which doesn't seem likely. So, at best, he could have a Chariot at the start of our Turn 75.

At the start of Turn 73, our Scout has seen that there isn't a Road on the G For that is 1 NE of York, nor is there a Worker there, so on Turn 75, we could unload troops both 1 SE of York and 1 E of York in order to block a York-built Chariot from being able to reach London via Roads before we can attack York, leaving only the incredibly unlikely possibility that Churchill had previously started building a Chariot and will switch to completing it at the end of our Turn 73, since an AI can't move a Unit on the turn that it appears (which is the same for us), meaning that a Chariot appearing in York at the end of our Turn 74 would be blocked by our Units on our Turn 75.

Then, we'd just need to decide what to do with the wounded Chariot... leave him in London to make London look like a juicier target? Move him to the G Riv For that is 1 N of Churchill's Horse on Turn 74 as bait? Have him heal for a turn in London and then join the Units at 1 SE or 1 E of York on turn 75 to participate in the attack? Note that if we went with the bait approach and the bait failed, we could still have him participate in the Turn 76 attack, but he wouldn't get a turn of healing on Turn 74.
 
We know York has archer and axe. We also know that Chill has a third city and access to metal. Maybe we could consider locating the metal and removing it so we don't have to worry about hilltop spears (and city 3 could be a better target than York).
 
Folket, do you remember what was defending York and what its level of cultural defense was?

London is a significantly better city if York is ours. Do we want to consider an amphibious assault on York on T75?

In addition to the possibility of sacrificing our scout to draw out a city defender, moving our wounded chariot onto the horses might do the trick and could be done next turn.

The English worker is valuable to us. Thinking we should prepare the option to capture him from a galley next turn, if he continues to chop.

Whipping a granary in Lyon in two turns when it has a population of 11 looks right.

I remember York having 1 archer and 1 axeman.
 
We know York has archer and axe. We also know that Chill has a third city and access to metal. Maybe we could consider locating the metal and removing it so we don't have to worry about hilltop spears (and city 3 could be a better target than York).
It's an interesting idea to cut off his access to metal.

I can't tell from the Event Log when Churchill founded his 3rd City, but it must have happened after Turn 67 (i.e. sometime in the last 5 turns), so the new City is likely not even Size 2 yet, particularly with Churchill having improved Iron so quickly (as opposed to, say, first improving a Food Resource). The trouble there is that we'd auto-raze a City which hasn't grown to Size 2, and, if, say, his City is working a Plains Iron Mine, it might take another 18 or so turns before it hits Size 2, which is too long to wait to capture our second City.

York, meanwhile, at Size 5, even if only Size 2 when captured, would give us at least 1 population point to whip, which, when combined with a Chop, could get us a quickly-whipped Granary, should the Granary there get burned down like London's was. Preferably, though, we might even keep the Granary and/or the Lighthouse, which won't exist yet in the newly-founded City and thus won't be possibilities to capture in the newly-founded City.


One other nice benefit of us taking down London is that Churchill's Galley was sunk, so our 4 Galleys can continue to sail around uncontested. We may have to keep rebuilding our army to put on our Galleys, but AIs really can't handle Galley warfare all that well, which puts us in a strong position if we can keep our Galleys moving from City to City.

I checked the zoom-out view (F11 to zoom out or use your mouse's scroll wheel) for the Culture layout and we don't even see Churchill's third City, so I'm not even sure in which direction to consider sending our boats. I'd prefer to leave Churchill alive, meaning only capturing one of his two Cities. So, taking down the City that might get us some population points, might get us some infrastructure, won't have a chance of auto-razing, and will get us more City Capture Gold due to having been owned by Churchill for the longest (aka York) would be my preference out of the two Cities.


After Churchill's next City, we'll need to decide between Hamburg and going toward Lisbon. It'll probably be Lisbon, as we could simply build up an army of Horse Archers and Chariots to strike at Hamburg (Chariots being to deal with Axemen), while to get at Egypt easily, it would make sense to sail first to Lisbon and then to Egypt.

Taking down Hamburg would likely open up a Trade Network connection with Russia, allowing for additional Foreign Trade Routes, assuming that we are willing to Open Borders with Stalin. But, at least capturing York would give each of our Cities two 2-Commerce Domestic Trade Routes, so the Foreign Trade Routes with Stalin might not be much of a priority, especially if we build ourselves a third City in English territory. That said, we wouldn't want to own 4 Cities in England, due to Colonial Maintenance Costs, so a third City would have to be wisely-placed.

York isn't particularly amazing in terms of additional Resources, but sharing Resources with London isn't too bad, and there's a lot of potential Hammers trapped in those Forests that we could harness, even if we have to build our own Workers to Chop them.

If we could get a Woodsman II Axeman, it could probably scoop up Workers from Churchill. Since we're Charismatic, we'd only need a Barrack-built Axeman to earn 1 XP to be able to get the Woodsman II Promotion, although for attacking York, I'd still take a Combat I Promotion rather than no Promotion, since a dead Unit of ours can't get a second Promotion and we can always build another Axeman.


Once nice thing is that even when a City is in City Revolt, we can get Domestic Trade Routes with such a City, although not in that City. So, currently, all of our mainland Cities have a 2-Commerce Domestic Trade Route with London.
 
I also noticed that we have 4 trade routes to London. That is really strange. How many rtade routes can we have to London?
 
Unlimited trade routes to domestic cities even overseas.
 
I'm not quite sure that we'd be able to capture a Worker next turn, unless it were to run directly 1 N GH For and stay along the coastline. Yes, that's a possibility; also, we could capture it with a mounted unit out of London if it moves onto the furs. I'm not convinced that it's worth chasing after that Worker relative to trying to throw everything that we've got at capturing York. Concur that York is a much higher priority and the quicker the better. Wasn't sure what was in York and how practical its quick takeover would be, when I suggested making the worker capture a viable option. Still like to keep it in mind, though.

We know that York has a Protective Archer (with a 25% Fortification bonus) and an Axeman, neither of which have a Promotion. Unfortunately, York is built on a GH square, which makes the defenders a bit tougher.Do we know the percentage of cultural defense?

A Chariot built in York could attack London on the following turn. Since we don't have good defenders against a Chariot (a wounded Horse Archer, a Chariot-vulnerable Axeman, or a Chariot without a Promotion aren't the best of candidates), we might consider unloading our Horse Archer inside of London this turn
What would be gained by unloading him?
, then next turn Promoting our Horse Archer to Combat I and Pillaging Churchill's Horse Resource. Of course, doing so would "threaten" Churchill's City and make him more likely to build a Unit--that said, with him being at war, he may want to build a Unit anyway.

Alternatively, we could leave the Horse Archer aboard our Galley so that it can heal while sailing if we're going for a Turn 75 amphibious assault, or it could simply land on Turn 74 for a Turn 75 land assault (a third option being healing while being on the Galley and landing on Turn 75 for a Turn 76 land assault).

York has 38 Hammers in a build item. How do you know that, and does that total include what can be added to produce something useful next turn? For instance, can he be about to complete a swordsman IBT or do we know that he is not building a swordsman?

We should probably also trade for Alex's Sheep using the Deer that we had previously been trading to Churchill. See no reason not to do that.

So, we have some options... for example, we could unload our Chariot 1 (Chariot 2, actually) S Grassland (1 E of the G Cow) on Turn 73. That chariot could be critical against York's axe, and we have no excess of units even with him along. If Frederick comes after Orleans, our Chariot would be available to deal with the Axeman. If the Axeman stays in place on the Forest, we could instead reboard a Galley on Turn 74 before the Galleys move, boarding a Galley at the same time that our Paris-whipped Horse Archer and our Scout could board Galleys.

Doing so means at best a Turn 75 amphibious attack or a Turn 76 land attack with that Chariot. Isn't it extremely likely that York would add a unit IBT 75 and 76? It will very likely take 2 units to kill that unit, so waiting to attack on 76 very likely reduces our odds unless it allows us to get 2 additional units in place. The only unit we would need the extra turn to get in place is the HA out of Paris (and he could still attack amphibiously if he isn't needed elsewhere). The Paris HA, together with the option of upgrading our warrior (only if our HA is defeated by the axe), would probably deal with Fred's immediate threat. And, if we are going after Lisbon before Hamburg, is peace with Germany that bad an option?

Alternatively, we don't put the Chariot ashore and we leave open the option of a land attack on Turn 75 but with the Paris Horse Archer attacking amphibiously. Better.

Landing our Units on Turn 74 on the G For Road that is 1 SE of York gives most of our Units a chance to avoid the amphibious penalty, but doing so could encourage Churchill to build a Unit due to York being threatened.

I'm not sure that he wouldn't build a Unit anyway, what with us being at war with him, so it might just be wise to plan for landing our troops on Turn 74, in which case our wounded Horse Archer wouldn't Pillage Churchill's Horse Resource, so that it could join the Turn 75 attack.

We also probably wouldn't need to load the Chariot that is London onto a Galley, as it could move via land to the G For Road that is 1 SE of York within the span of 1 turn. If next turn we move the wounded chariot and the wounded HA to the road 1E of York and if we land units 1SE, then London would be protected from a chariot attack. Or, we could use the wounded chariot to pillage the road 1W of London next turn.


If we're going with the "bait" idea, I'd suggest putting the Chariot in a spot where Churchill's Unit wouldn't threaten London by killing our wounded Chariot. I.e. We could move the Chariot to the G Riv For that is NE + E of York, as there is no Road on that square. Baiting a Unit to kill our Chariot on the Horse Resource would mean that London would be threatened Not immediately, if the chariot pillages the road 1W before moving onto the horses., and a BtS AI has a nasty habit of whipping a Unit (likely a fresh Archer) on the turn of recapturing its City.


Once we decide upon which plan to go for, then we can plan out the logistics.

The options that I see are:
A] Turn 75 land-based attack with 3 Axes, 2 Chariots (1 wounded), and 1 wounded Horse Archer and 1 Horse Archer attacking amphibiously
B] Turn 75 amphibious attack with all of the above Units
C] Turn 76 land-based attack with all of the above Units.

I like A better at this point, but if York builds a unit IBT, threatening another the next IBT, then we would need to try to bait him to come after us, rather than risk attacking a hill city with 7 units against 4 defenders. So, would suggest that next turn we unload an axe SE of York and see what's in the city before proceeding. (We should set up a galley chain to be able to bring units back tino Orleans ASAP after attacking.)
 
Do we know the percentage of cultural defense?
20%, although it could climb to 40% if the City expands its Cultural Borders, especially now that it has a Palace, or 50% if City Walls get built by a Protective AI who has access to Stone.


Dhoomstriker said:
York has 38 Hammers in a build item.
How do you know that, and does that total include what can be added to produce something useful next turn? For instance, can he be about to complete a swordsman IBT or do we know that he is not building a swordsman?
Ctrl + e (for the Espionage screen)
Select Churchill's icon
Select York in the list of Cities
Sabotage Production requires 198 EPs
Support City Revolt requires 565 EPs
Plug the above numbers into the following formula (I attached an Excel spreadsheet that already has that formula in it in an earlier-posted message: EP Values):
{Sabotage Production EPs} / {Support City Revolt EPs} * 650 / 6
= 198 / 565 * 650 / 6
= 37.96 -> 38 Hammers in a build item

If the "Sabotage Production" EP value is blank, that means that a build item was completed on the last turn and that there are an unspecified number of overflow Hammers that can be used in a build item that the AI will select on its next turn.


if we are going after Lisbon before Hamburg, is peace with Germany that bad an option?
Peace isn't a great option. Being Charismatic means that even with a single battle, we can get our second Promotion off of a Barracks-built Unit (only needing 4 XP and getting 3 XP from a Barracks), so it would be nice to use Frederick's Units as a training ground.

Barracks went from being 4 XP (in Vanilla) to 3 XP when the Charismatic Trait got introduced, so that Units wouldn't immediately start with taking 2 Promotions, but being 1 XP away makes even an easy win a way to get a 2nd Promotion.

A Woodsman II Axeman or a Galley plus a couple of Units aboard of it could keep stealing Workers from Frederick.


So, would suggest that next turn we unload an axe SE of York and see what's in the city before proceeding.
We would be landing everyone possible on Turn 74 with plan A, not just an Axeman. In the other plans, the goal would be not to unload anyone within York's big fat cross on Turn 74, other than a possible Chariot as bait. Our Scout would have been better for spying on York, as it wouldn't threaten Churchill's City (at least, I don't think that a Scout would count as a threat--I'm not positive, though); I apologise for not thinking about checking the teleportation mechanics before the war declaration, as I didn't even consider that our Scout would get teleported to our side of the water.


As for the Scout, if we win the battle for York, the Scout can reveal the rest of England for us, to see where it might be best to place our third and final City in England. If there are 2 locations that are better than York, we could also consider whipping and chopping York to the ground, gifting away York later, and then settling those 2 other Cities.

If we find that the defenders are too strong to the point that we have very little chance of winning, we can retreat our army and then try to use the Scout as bait while we wait for reinforcements or else give up on taking York in the short term.


also, we could capture [the Worker] with a mounted unit out of London if it moves onto the furs.
As you have said, let's get everyone ready for the fight against York; if the battle seems impossible, then we can think about going for a Worker.


(We should set up a galley chain to be able to bring units back into Orleans ASAP after attacking.)
That's a good idea to keep in mind, especially if Frederick pushes an army toward Orleans; sending our Galleys back eastward would delay the advance of our Galleys toward Lisbon, but if we don't have enough Units to fill our Galleys, a delay in sending them south won't matter too much.


Not immediately, if the chariot pillages the road 1W before moving onto the horses
I'm okay if we Pillage a Resource, but it would be preferable not to Pillage the Roads, as they can be very valuable to us, and they won't be of any use to Churchill if we position our Units well or else set up a plan where he can't make use of the Roads sufficiently to mess with us.

The best possible Unit for Churchill to build for us would be a Chariot, as it doesn't get Defensive Bonuses, so I'd prefer not to Pillage his Horse Resource. We could Pillage his Stone Resource, though.


EDIT:
the option of upgrading our warrior
I'd prefer to take this possibility off of the table. Peace with Frederick would be far better than spending our hard-earned Gold on an Unit Upgrade.

Using Gold to fund our Espionage Points is fine, since Espionage Points will mostly be used on stealing techs at a discount relative to self-teching those same techs, especially if we can find a use for said techs in the short term (i.e. Mathematics + Code of Laws lead directly to Civil Service, which is our target tech after Currency). But, otherwise, it would be preferable to keep our Gold for Research needs.
 
20%, although it could climb to 40% if the City expands its Cultural Borders, especially now that it has a Palace, or 50% if City Walls get built by a Protective AI who has access to Stone. Got it. Thanks.

{Sabotage Production EPs} / {Support City Revolt EPs} * 650 / 6
= 198 / 565 * 650 / 6
= 37.96 -> 38 Hammers in a build item That's impressive knowledge of game mechanics. Still not clear, though, as to whether he might produce a sword IBT (without whipping).

Peace isn't a great option. Concur, but surely we are risking the need for it by throwing everything at York (which I nonetheless tentatively advocate, depending on York unit builds), especially if we're unwilling to upgrade our warrior in an emergency.


We would be landing everyone possible on Turn 74 with plan A, not just an Axeman. Of course -- I was suggesting that we land an axe first and, if the axe sees that there is already a third defender in York and therefore likely to be a fourth next turn, then we pause to consider not landing the remaining units but to position units in unmoved galleys to be able to defend Orleans and to go with worker capture and the baiting tactic -- see your suggested tactics immediately below. Alternatively, we could go ahead and land units and put out the wounded chariot as bait, hoping to only have three units in the city to defeat on T75.

If we find that the defenders are too strong to the point that we have very little chance of winning, we can retreat our army and then try to use the Scout as bait while we wait for reinforcements or else give up on taking York in the short term. As you have said, let's get everyone ready for the fight against York; if the battle seems impossible, then we can think about going for a Worker.

That's a good idea to keep in mind, especially if Frederick pushes an army toward Orleans; sending our Galleys back eastward would delay the advance of our Galleys toward Lisbon, but if we don't have enough Units to fill our Galleys, a delay in sending them south won't matter too much. On same page here.

I'm okay if we Pillage a Resource, but it would be preferable not to Pillage the Roads, as they can be very valuable to us, and they won't be of any use to Churchill if we position our Units well or else set up a plan where he can't make use of the Roads sufficiently to mess with us. No disagreement, just following your practice of proposing options.

The best possible Unit for Churchill to build for us would be a Chariot, as it doesn't get Defensive Bonuses, so I'd prefer not to Pillage his Horse Resource. Concur. We could Pillage his Stone Resource, though. That would take longer to repair than a road.


I'd prefer to take this possibility off of the table. Peace with Frederick would be far better than spending our hard-earned Gold on an Unit Upgrade.
That seems a bit extreme, given your reasons for staying at war. Don't want to have to do it, but not sure 80 gold to avoid peace and get an axe wouldn't be the lesser of two evils, depending on the circumstances. Hopefully gold from city capture and GLH trade routes will be forthcoming.
 
If we're not planning on attacking Fred then why not simplify things by getting peace with him now and focus on finishing Chill (go for annihilation, it will take him a long time to research MC with only one city) before picking another target.

Given we're at war with Chill then maybe use scout to check out Greece.
 
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